NFL Week 11 analysis

Panthers (7-2) @ Bears (6-3)- Chicago won its last five games, despite turning ball over seven times last two weeks; they're 4-1 at home, but wins were over Lions, Vikings, Ravens, 49ers. Panthers won their last six games, scoring 34 ppg in three wins since their bye- they have 10 takeaways in last two games. Under is 6-1 in last seven Chicago games, 1-5-1 in last seven Carolina tilts. Lovie Smith's stint as DC with Rams when Carolina torched his defense for TD in overtime, but elements will play role in this game. Panthers 9-3-1 vs spread in last 13 games after a win.

Jaguars (6-3) @ Titans (2-7)- Tennessee lost last four games (0-4 vs spread); their only wins are over Ravens, Texans, and only one of their seven losses is by less than six points. Titans won six of last seven series games, with Jags' win at this site last year their first in last six visits. Jax is 5-0 if it scores more than 21 points, 1-3 if it scores 21 or less- they topped 30 mark for first time in 59 games last week. Last three series totals were 13-27-33. Jags are 2-2 on road, with three of the four going over total; they've outscored last four opponents 61-17 in second half of games.

Colts (9-0) @ Bengals (7-2)- Indy jogged out to 21-0 lead on short week vs Texans for ninth win; only games they haven't covered this year are three they didn't have takeaway in. Cincy has just seven giveaways in last eight games and are 6-0 if they score 21+ points. Games they lost, they scored 20,13. Last four Colt games went over total, but under is 7-2 in Cincy games. Indy has 26 TDs on last 49 drives, and got Stokely his first TD of year vs Texans. Teams are only two hours apart, but first time Colts have been here since '96. Out of seven Cincy victims, only Bears have winning record. Colts are 19-11 vs spread in game after their last 30 wins.

Saints (2-7) @ Patriots (5-4)- Pats have yet to win back-to-back games in '05, allowing 34 ppg in their losses- they're 2-2 at home, winning by 10,5 points, and last six Pat foes all threw ball for at least 7.1 yards per try, a high figure. That said, Saints seems adverse to travel, losing last four road games by combined score of 140-46. Back in August, before Katrina hit, New Orleans went to Foxboro and drilled Patriots in preseason game, keeping starters in almost whole way, which led to some misguided (but well meaning) nitwits to think that Saints had Super Bowl in their future.

Cardinals (2-7) @ Rams (4-5)- Warner makes first appearance in St Louis as the enemy, but he is still loved there. Bidwill's Cards aren't, though, since they skipped town 20 years ago. Arizona is an awful team, losing all four road games by average score of 35-16; they outgained Rams 379-279 in first meeting, but time ran out on them with ball inside Rams' 10 on final drive of 17-12 loss. Rams are 3-1 at home, 2-0 under Vitt, with wins by 4,11,3 points. Redbirds passed for 312 ypg in four games Warner finished, but lost all four. Over is 6-1 in last seven Arizona games, 5-2 in Rams' last seven.

Buccaneers (6-3) @ Falcons (6-3)- With Rich McKay leaving Bucs to become GM of Atlanta, this has become pretty good rivalry, with Tampa having won seven of last nine meetings (eight of nine were won by 9+ points), four of five at this site. In past, quick Buc defenders have had success hemming Vick in, making him pass to succeed, and he has failed more often than not. Falcons have eight giveaways in last three games, after having just six in first six. Bucs allowed 69 points in last two games, after loss to 49ers; they scored 17 or less points in last three road games. Four of last five Falcon games went over total.

Raiders (3-6) @ Redskins (5-4)- Skins 2-4 since 3-0 start; they got beat by young Simms last week, as offside on PAT cost them two points, but Gibbs is 4-0 at home this year, winning by 2-3-35-7 points. Streaky Raiders started 0-3, then won three of four, now lost two in row, allowing 58 points; they're 1-3 on road, giving up average of 26.3 ppg. Washington 8-5 vs spread after loss in Gibbs' second term, Raiders are 10-20 in game after their last 30 losses. Skins outrushed Bucs 185-61 in Tampa, but first half miscues did them in. Oakland off losses to their two biggest rivals. Over is 5-2 in last seven Redskin games.

Lions (4-5) @ Cowboys (6-3)- Uplifting win for Dallas Monday, now they have short week to prepare for non-division foe, with Broncos coming to town in five days. Harrington had good day vs Arizona (22-32/226), now he faces Dallas on road, with Pokes coming off Monday night win at Philly, with Turkey Day looming Lions are 1-3 on road; they're 3-1 if they allow 17 or less points,

3-2 if they don't. Cowboys won three in row at home, since late collapse vs Skins cost them Week 2 Monday nighter. Dallas beat Lions 31-21 on this field last year; they've won only four of last eleven vs Detroit.

Eagles (4-5) @ Giants (6-3)- Horrific loss Monday basically ends Eagle season; not sure, as this is posted, whether McNabb will start, not sure it matters, either. Giant defense has not allowed TD in last three games (35 drives, five FG tries, 21 3-and-outs), but guessing special teams were a focus in Swamp this week, after Vikings' record day in Week 10. Short week for Philly, but will be long last seven weeks for them. Giants are 5-1 at home, but with four of last six on road, win here is vital. Philly is 1-4 on road, with only win when they trailed 24-0 at Arrowhead in first half. Eli is 53-112 passing last three games; simply put, he'll need to be much better throwing to secondary receivers, since Burress, Shockey being taken away by opposing defenses.

Dolphins (3-6) @ Browns (3-6)- Miami 1-5 in last six games, Cleveland 1-4 in last five. Fish are 3-0 if they score more than 20 points, which they do 1/3 of time, Browns have lost games where they allowed 13-16-13 points, so offense is their key issue, and calls are getting louder for Akron rookie Frye to start playing QB. Under is 6-1 in Browns' last seven games, 3-0 in Miami's last three. Miami's running game should be OK on Lake Erie, but they're 1-3 on road, winning only over Saints at LSU, not 100% a road game. Browns are 2-2 at home, but have been minus in turnovers in each of their last five games.

Seahawks (7-2) @ 49ers (2-7)- Trap game for Seattle, which could be fat and happy after beating Rams and basically clinching division; key for them now is to play for a bye, which is huge in playoffs- they've won four in row over 49ers, outscoring SF 76-27 in two '04 games, but SF has beaten Rams, Bucs on this field, losing only to Colts (28-3) and Giants (24-6). After Pickett went 1-13 passing in Windy City, looks like rookie Smith will get call under center for 49ers. Five of last seven Seattle games went over total; Hawks are 3-1 on road, with wins by 6,14 points.

Bills (4-5) @ Chargers (5-4)- Losman led Bills to 14-3 win in Week 10, but closer look shows Buffalo scored zero points on three red zone trips, a hideous stat; Bills are 0-4 on road, scoring 10.8 ppg (four TD's on 40 drives). Chargers off bye after playing three of previous six games in east; they're 2-2 at home, with wins by 22,8 points and Bolts giving up average of 23.8 ppg. Home side is 9-1 SU in Buffalo games. Bills are 0-5 if they don't win turnover battle, with losses by 16-8-12-21-5 points. Chargers led last two games at half by 21-3/21-10 scores; if that repeats itself, unlikely Losman can stage rally.

Jets (2-7) @ Broncos (7-2)- Denver covered seven of last eight games; they're 5-0 at home, with wins by 3-20-2-8-28 points. Only twice in win streak have they led at half by less than 13 points. Jets are punchless, especially on road, where they're 0-5, outscored by total of 124-43 (25-9 average). Jets have long been team that thrived off creating turnovers; they have 17 takeaways, but also 21 giveaways, a losing formula when you factor in young QB. Over is 4-0-1 in last five Denver games, 3-1 in last four Jet games. Broncos in Raider/Cowboy sandwich, has to guard against looking ahead.

Steelers (7-2) @ Ravens (2-7)- In first meeting, 20-19 Steeler win on a Monday night, Ravens hit 9 of 18 third down plays to keep ball away from Steelers, who rallied late. Home side won last five series games, with Steelers losing last two visits to this site, after winning six of first seven. Big Ben won't be ready, Batch has broken hand, so Steelers have problems if Maddox has to QB whole game for Steeler squad that won its last four games (3-1 vs spread), but is just 7 for 33 on third down in three games Big Ben hasn't started. Ravens in freefall, losing four games in row, scoring just 9.3 ppg (one offensive TD, 18 3-and-outs on last 42 drives).

Chiefs (5-4) @ Texans (1-8)- Texans covered last three games, won their last home game (19-16 over Browns) but they lost other three home games by 20-14-18 points. Fourth road game in five weeks for KC (2-3 on road, winning 23-17 at Oakland, 30-20 at Miami). Houston has just two INTs all season, so would expect Green to throw better in controlled climate, as opposed to warm but windy Rich Stadium. Red flag for Vermeil is that in last three games, Chiefs have scored 3-6-3 points in first half. Chiefs' original franchise name was Houston Texans, 45 years ago.

Vikings (4-5) @ Packers (2-7)- Green Bay led first meeting 17-0 at halftime in Twin Cities, but Vikings won game 23-20, Culpepper went 23-31/255. Minnesota now won three of last four after 1-4 start, but no more Culpepper; they were outgained 196-6 in first half last week, still led game, as defense, special teams earned their keep. Vikings are 2-9 in last 11 visits to this site, where any damage they did recently was done by now-departed WR Moss. Pack had terrific win at Atlanta; their defense is improving, forcing three turnovers vs Falcons, allowing just one TD drive of 80+ yards in last five games (20 drives). Third road game in four weeks for Vikings, who still have been outscored 88-10 in first half of their five road games