newsletters for 11/19 weekend
Jim Hurley Newsletter
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PREFERRED PICK
CINCINNATI at SOUTH FLORIDA: It’s an amazing-but-true story when it comes to these USF Bulls as they can grab a BCS berth if they run the table on this ’05 regular season (at UConn and then home to West Virginia are the remaining games the next two weekends). What … you’re not looking forward to a South Florida versus Miami rematch in the Orange Bowl? Fact of matter is HC Leavitt’s team is good and fast and athletic and RB Hall (222 yards rushing and three TDs in last week’s 27-0 walkover win at Syracuse) takes center stage here again. South Florida 33, Cincinnati 9
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KENTUCKY at GEORGIA: Don’t believe that the Georgia Dawgs will be down in the mouth here following 31-30 home loss against archrival Auburn last week as HC Richt’s team still gets SEC East berth in conference championship game with a “Wâ€Â
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Hurley NFL
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PREFERED PICK
TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA: Bad ‘capping spot for the visiting T-Bay Bucs who bring oft-rattled QB Simms into noisy Georgia Dome where madcap Falcons defense will be coming from all angles and so we’ll call it seven- or eight-sack game here. Throw in fact that Atlanta’s lefty slinger – the ever-improving Mr. Vick – will be stat-sheet stuffer in run/pass categories by the time this one ends and it’s pro-Falcs play here minus the price. Note the Bucs are a lousy 4-9 spreadwise in NFC South games the past two-plus years while losing last season’s trip into Hot-lanta by a 24-14 score. Okay, so we’ll add a field goal to Falcons total here and call it Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 14
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OAKLAND at WASHINGTON: Call this one an anti-Raiders selection as silver-and-black coming off back-to-back divisional duels (at Kansas City/home to Denver) and gotta believe concentration level will waver for this team that usually has enough problems staying on the straight-and-narrow. The ‘Skins can pick on an injury-riddled Oakland secondary and so you fantasy leaguers may want to “activateâ€Â
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:26pm -
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It’s "Rivalry Weekend" in College Football and so that means getting up-close and personal with the various trends concerning these key games:
Alabama at Auburn – The Crimson Tide’s covered the last five games played at Auburn in this Iron Bowl matchup. Note that in the last eight seasons in all, ‘Bama sports a solid 6-2 spread mark.
Utah at BYU – Underdogs have notched spread wins in eight of the last 10 tilts in this Beehive State showdown. Meanwhile, the Utes have covered four of their last five games in Provo.
California at Stanford – Road teams sport a 7-3 spread mark the last 10 years in this Bay Area rivalry.
Duke at North Carolina – The Dookies have dropped seven of their last eight spread verdicts when playing their next-door neighbors from Chapel Hill.
Northwestern at Illinois – Home teams are a sour 3-7 spreadwise the past 10 years in this Big 10 rivalry that’s shifted away from the Illini. Note that Northwestern has covered four of the last five games in this series.
Purdue at Indiana – Home teams have rolled up a seven-year winning streak in this Old Oaken Bucket rivalry game.
Ohio State at Michigan – The Buckeyes have cashed five times in the last seven meetings against the maize-and-blue and the Wolverines have failed to cover as the chalk side in three of the last four such meetings.
Oregon State at Oregon – The O-State Beavers have covered four of the last five meetings in the Civil War. Note the last time the Ducks won/covered as home favorites was back in 1999.
Virginia Tech at Virginia – The home teams own a 7-3 spread advantage the past 10 years in this still-underrated rivalry game.
Washington State at Washington – The UW Huskies own a five-game spread winning streak in this Apple Cup series.
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:26pm -
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Newsletters for the week of Nov 15th
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marc lawrence;
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
MICHIGAN STATE over Penn State by 3
All Penn State has to do is win this game and the Nittany
Lions will win the Big Ten title and the league’s BCS spot.
Easier said than done. Michigan State has made a habit of
winning its last home game of the season. In the last 20
years, the Spartans have won their home finale 17 times
posting 18 covers along the way, including a remarkable
13 covers in a row. We must remember that, in its last dozen
road games against .500 or better opposition, Penn State
has ONE win and that one, at Northwestern, required an
85-yard drive in the last 1:41 to get it. Sure, the Lions are
only ONE SECOND away from being unbeaten. They'd
better be ready to play 3600 of them here.
team has NOTHING going for it. The reward for being the nation’s
most disappointing team? Syracuse gets to travel to the home
of the hottest offense in the country and face a team who is still
angry about the 38-12 beating they got from the Orange last
year. Whew!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
5 BEST BET
OREGON over Oregon State by 27
Regarded by football fans in the Beaver State as the single
most important sporting event in the world, the Civil War,
as its called, has been dominated recently by the home team
with seven covers in the last eight meetings. Both teams
will be using a second-string quarterbacks and Oregon State
can throw a six turnover game at you on any day. We’re
sure the Ducks want to get even for that 50-21 roast last
season, a loss that denied them a winning season. Furthermore,
Oregon is 28-0 ATS in SU conference revenge victories
while Oregon State is 0-8 ATS in its last eight losses against
avenging foes. Ducks in a walk.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4 BEST BET
California over STANFORD by 14
Pac Ten scouts have informed us that Stanford is convinced
that it can win this game and that the Cardinal will be
ready for the Bears when Cal invades the farm. We’re not
exactly sure where Stanford is getting its confidence. The
Cardinal has lost the last three games in this series by an
average of 23 points. Moreover, the host in the series has
just three covers in the last 12 meetings. In addition,
Stanford is the phoniest winning team in the land, allowing
more than 100 yards per game than they gain. Look for
the series visitor to improve to 7-1 ATS here today.
against clearly superior teams, but we won’t Force this pick.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3 BEST BET
SOUTHERN CAL over Fresno State by 14
Many believed that the games against Oregon, California,
Arizona State and UCLA were the teams with the best
chance to stop Southern Cal’s historic winning streak. We
believe that THIS TEAM has the best chance to do it. Of
course, we have the benefit of knowing that the other four
have already failed. Count on this: Fresno is not and will
not be intimidated and the Bulldogs will fight to the end.
Their 18-4 ATS record as non-conference road dogs makes
it easy for us to back the Bulldogs here. So does our
Awesome Angle (page 2). Take the points.
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:28pm -
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Tuesday, November 15th
marc lawrencetonight
MIAMI OH over Bowling Green by 10
Greg Brandon has admitted that he is saving Omar Jacobs for
Toledo. He says that Jacobs might play here but he always finishes
those projections with a confirmation that he wants Omar for
the Toledo game. Even with Jacobs in there, it’s no gimme that
Bowling Green will be able to outduel the RedHawks. Miami’s
defense, although not up to previous standards, is far better
than the BeeGee stop troops and Josh Betts has the ability to
render the Falcon secondary helpless. Despite the RedHawks'
5-0 ATS mark in the series, we’ll probably sit this one out and
wait for better stuff down the road.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
wednesday
Ohio over AKRON by 1
Akron is the worst home favorite in the MAC with just three
wins in its last 12 tries, but Ohio is 1-8 ATS in its last nine tries as
a road underdog, including six failures in a row. Both of these
teams have had chances to improve their seasons and neither
has taken advantage of those chances. We’ll lean to the Bobcats
as a 'Rip Van Winkle' Smart Box side.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TOLEDO over N Illinois by 10
Without Phil Horvath, the Huskies have little chance to beat
Toledo. WITH Garrett Wolfe, they definitely have a chance to
cover the generous spread. At this writing, we don’t know if
Wolfe is playing and because of that, we can’t make an educated
guess. Ah hell, let’s face it. We’re not going to fade Toledo on
this field when the Rockets can win the MAC West title with a
win. The Rockets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 as home chalk and
26-4 ATS in their last 30 SU wins. We ain’t fadin’ that!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MARYLAND over Boston College by 1
We watch the Terrapins play and we wonder why they aren’t
doing better than they have been. They’re not too bad, folks.
Neither is Boston College and the Eagles know how to win on
the road. BC is 5-2 ATS away vs ACC opposition and 12-6 ATS in
its last 18 road games – regardless of price. Unfortunately for
the Eagles, Maryland is getting better every week (five covers in
its last six games) and can taste the bowl bid it will get if it wins
this game.
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Purdue over INDIANA by 17
You can see improvement in the Boilermakers stretching back to
the moment Joe Tiller inserted Curtis Painter as his starting QB.
Home wins over Michigan State and Illinois were just what Painter
needed to build up his confidence after two straight starts on
the road. Purdue lost both of those road games and the numbers
say that this won’t be easy, either. Indiana is spiralling downward
as injuries have devastated the Hoosier defense. Emotion
abounds in this game with no clear cut edge for either side in
that department. Talent rules. Purdue has the talent. Lay it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
KANSAS ST over Missouri by 1
Kansas State just can’t seem to get into the victory column. The
Cats played step for step with Nebraska but lost by two. They
played the division-leading Colorado Buffaloes for sixty hard
minutes and lost by three. Just before that, K-State took a bitter
two-point loss at home from Texas A&M. It’s about time the
Wildcats won. Missouri’s last two road games were a 13-6 loss to
Kansas and a 29-point blowout loss at Colorado. Kansas State is
7-3 ATS in its last ten with Missouri and it wouldn’t take much
of a win to make it 8-3. We just don’t know if the Cats can do it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Northwestern over ILLINOIS by 18
Illinois is averaging 11 ppg in Big Ten play this season and 15
ppg in league play over the last two years. Conversely,
Northwestern is averaging over 30 ppg in conference action this
season. Would it be safe to say that the Wildcats will get more
points than Illinois? If you think yes, then check out our
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page 3. By the way, the Cats
are also 11-1 ATS as road chalk vs an opponent off a loss. Again.
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:28pm -
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marc lawrence:
IOWA over Minnesota by 7
Iowa showed some character last week. The Hawkeyes went into
Wisconsin off back-to-back heartbreaking losses at home to
Michigan in overtime and at Northwestern after leading by 13
with three minutes and change left. They had every reason in
the world to play an uninspired game, Instead, they did just the
opposite, Iowa is 12-1 ATS in its home finale over the past 13
years while Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in its road finale. Minnesota’s
running game is scary but it hasn’t frightened Iowa much. The
Gophers are 0-6 SU & ATS in their last six trips to Iowa City.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
C Michigan over BALL ST by 8
Two tough losses in succession might take the starch out of a
Central Michigan team that was in the MAC West driver’s seat
two weeks ago. Now, the Chips are out of the race, will not go
to a bowl game, and may not even get a winning season out of
the deal. Ball State has come alive in the last month and is
certainly capable of winning this game. With the Gonads in off
an 'inside-out' stat win and the Chips off an 'inside-out' stat loss,
we'll go outside the box and count our Chips.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~
N CAROLINA over Duke by 21
The bitter overtime loss to Maryland will either serve to inspire
North Carolina more, or render them flat as pancakes. The Devils
are perfect this year. They’ve lost all seven of their conference
games by at least 25 points each and haven’t covered in any of
those losses. A week of rest, the return of a few injured starters
and Aunt Jemimah all combine to give the Dukies their virgin
ATS win.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S FLORIDA over Cincinnati by 14
That was an impressive road trip for the Bulls. A win over a decent
Rutgers team and a 28-0 whitewashing of that awful Syracuse
bunch. South Florida added to its already profitable 15-2 ATS
mark in SU wins by putting two more on the left side. The
Bearcats are young and might be a bit intimidated by South
Florida’s 45-14 win on this field against Louisville, a team that
beat the Bearcats by 24 in Cincinnati. The linemaker could
overadjust. Be careful of this underdog.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GEORGIA over Kentucky by 24
We don’t know what kind of energy drink was on the Kentucky
team bus, but there’s a few AARP members around this office
that would like to have a case of it. The Cats came off that bus
dancing and they didn’t stop until the fourth quarter after
posting a 48-24 lead going into the final period. We know this
ain’t Vanderbilt but Georgia doesn’t have the scoring capability
of the Commies. It's always dangerous to back the Bluegrass Cats
on the road off a road win but Georgia is locked and loaded in a
classic 'Double Bubble Burster' play against role here today.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lsu over MISSISSIPPI by 13
We know how bad Ole Miss must have looked last week against
an Arkansas team whose only two wins of the season came
against SW Missouri and LA Monroe. We also know how the
Rebels played Alabama toe to toe for the entire 60 minutes in a
last minute 13-10 loss. Count on those Rebs showing up here.
LSU has only covered once in teight meetings in this series and
Ole Miss is 12-3 ATS as SEC dogs of +11 or more. The hard-fighting
defense of the Rebels keeps them in the game front to back.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TENNESSEE over Vanderbilt by 10
If you’re wondering when the last time Tennessee covered as a
favorite, it was September of 2004 against Louisiana Tech. If
you’re wondering when the last time the Vols covered as chalk
in SEC play, it was November of 2003 against Kentucky. If you’re
wondering if we’re going to lay points with Tennessee in this
game, stop. You already know the answer. Besides, the Commies
are in best tightener in this week's Smart Box (see page 3).
They're also 5-0 ATS in their last five tries as traveling dogs.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MICHIGAN over Ohio St by 3
We don’t think anyone in the country would have guessed that
the Buckeyes would come in here off four straight SUATS wins
and that they would have scored at least 40 points in each of
those four victories. Nor would anyone have guessed that, after
starting the season 3-3. Michigan would still be in the running for
a share of the Big Ten title and the conference BCS bid. Ohio
State is 3-12 ATS on the road off a DD win and 0-7 ATS away
against a foe off a SU & ATS win. Wolves defend their den.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~
NAVY over Temple by 31
Navy continues to present itself as a team that plays its ass off
every time it goes onto the field. If they do that here, they’ll do
what everyone else has done to the Owls - beat them by 50. You
know this isn’t our kind of game and we, most likely, won’t be
involved but we have to tell you that Navy is 33-4 ATS in its last
37 SU wins as a favorite and that Navy will win this game.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BUFFALO over E Michigan by 1
Hooray for Jim Hofher. After being fired from the worst coaching
job in football, Hofher led his kids to their first victory of the
season at Kent State. The euphoria of that initial victory is well
contained in the team (nobody in Buffalo cares about the Bulls)
but it may show up in the form of an enthusiastic sendoff for
the coach. The kids like Hofher, and they play hard for him despite
being overmatched in nearly every game they play. It’s been more
than six years since the Emus have been MAC road chalk.
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:29pm -
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marc lawrence:
ARKANSAS over Mississippi St by 11
Houston Nutt finally got a much-needed conference win by
overpowering the Mississippi Rebels. Here’s some bad news for
Mississippi State. He’s going to do that again and there isn’t
anything you can do to stop it. You certainly can’t match points
with the Hogs. After all, you haven’t won a game in the league
this season and you’re averaging five and a half points per game
in league play. Hell, just mail it in and save the travel money.
Nonetheless, the Bulldogs are in the same Smart Box play that
we alluded to in the Ohio U-Akron game. Be careful.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TEXAS TECH over Oklahoma by 3
We think it would be safe to say that these two were looking
ahead last week. Second place in the Big 12 South doesn’t get
you into the conference championship game but it does make
you the second best team in the league and puts you higher on
the bowl pecking order. Oklahoma faces a Red Raider who is 15-
2 ATS in its last home game and 14-5 ATS in its last 19 as home
chalk. The Sooner offense is getting better and they were favored
by 25 points in this game last year in Norman and laid 19 points
here in 2003.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NOTRE DAME over Syracuse by 38
They couldn’t make this line high enough for us to take Syracuse.
One pitiful performance after another is making Orange fans
long for Paul Pasqualooney and his pedestrian ball clubs. At least
Paul won a few games and, for the most part, competed. This
team has NOTHING going for it. The reward for being the nation’s
most disappointing team? Syracuse gets to travel to the home
of the hottest offense in the country and face a team who is still
angry about the 38-12 beating they got from the Orange last
year. Whew!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BAYLOR over Oklahoma St by 7
We thought that Baylor would be a bit down in the dumps after
that overtime loss to Oklahoma but the Bears are taking the
term “let downâ€Â
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:29pm -
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marc lawrence:
TEXAS EL PASO over Uab by 4
The Blazers play to the level of their competition, to say the
least. UAB is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games against .700 or better
opponents and 5-14 ATS against less than .333 foes. Texas El Paso
is in the former group and you can count on UAB’s best here as
the Blazers will be 'Puttin On The Stats' as a dangerous dog. The
Miners are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 chances as home favorites of
more than three points but we'll opt for out stat-dog here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SAN JOSE ST over New Mexico St by 10
Since 1996, Jose has been a favorite 18 times. The Spartans won
14 and covered 13 of those games, including seven consecutive
wins and covers in that role. New Mexico State hasn’t won a
road game this season. The closest the Aggies got was a 17-point
loss and that wasn’t really a road game – it was across the street
at New Mexico.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tulsa over TULANE by 17
The odyssey is almost over for the Green Wave. This is the tenth
game of an 11-game slate that has seen the Wave on a different
field every week. The rigorous demands have shown up on the
field. Tulane was beaten badly by both Texas El Paso and Navy
and Tulsa fits right into that class of opponent. Tulsa is 25-3-1
ATS in its 29 lined road wins since 1980.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S CAROLINA over Clemson by 1
If emotion determines how a team performs, this will be the
worst game on the Saturday card and nobody will win. The
Palmetto State teams hosted a pair of teams from the land of
the Big Breeze and took them both down - hard. Two incredibly
emotional wins by two hard-fighting underdogs against two
hated rivals should leave these two without a shred of intensity
at the start of this game. The one who finds that emotional
reserve first will win this one.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Colorado St over UNLV by 16
Colorado State has a reputation for protecting its home field
but it’s on the road that the Rams have made the money,
particularly in their last road game of the season. With 11 covers
in its last 12 road finales, CSU is like money in the bank on its
final trip. Unlv has covered five of the last seven in the series but
the Rebels are clearly the inferior team. One only has to look
back to the 55-14 whipping the Rebs took from BYU to know
that CSU can win this one big. We’ll take a look at the number,
then the Rams.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Virginia Tech over VIRGINIA by 3
The Hokies have had two weeks to get over that home whipping
put on them by the Miami Hurricanes. If you’ve followed our
forecasting for any length of time, you already know that road
favorites who are off their first loss of the year this late in the
season almost never get our support. We know that Tech is 13-2
ATS in their last 15 tries as single digit road favorites but
Virginia counters that stat with an impressive 9-1 ATS log in its
last ten tries as home dogs. You know that’s where we’re going.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW MEXICO over Air Force by 13
It’s hard to imagine the Force winning this game considering
that the Falcons have just one conference road win in their last
nine tries and that win came against a winless UNLV club. New
Mexico is 0-5 ATS in its last five home favorite appearances but
the Lobos are an amazing 33-1 ATS in their last 34 SU wins with
revenge. We usually favor military teams as road dogs, sometimes
against clearly superior teams, but we won’t Force this pick.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S MISSISSIPPI over Memphis by 3
The Eagles have the credentials that merit support but, most of
all, they have one of the most underrated coaches in the country
directing one of the nation’s most underrated QB’s. Memphis
has DeAngelo Williams and is 8-1 ATS following BB SUATS losses.
We like running dogs with numbers like those.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SAN DIEGO ST over Wyoming by 10
Both teams had high hopes at the beginning of the season and
both have seen those hopes evaporate into smoke. Wyoming
still has the best players but the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in the last
four vs San Diego State and 2-13 ATS as favorites against
opponents off BB SU losses. Aztecs in LHG get a long look.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ADDED GAMES
NC STATE over Mid Tenn St by 13
The struggles of Sun Belt teams on the non-conference road have
been well documented. One team that has risen above the abyss
of Sun Belt mediocrity is Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders are
13-6 ATS in their last 19 non-conference road trips. NC State fits
right into the MTSU program with its horrible 2-13 ATS mark
as double digit chalk and its 3-13 ATS log in its last 16 home
games. Sorta like a sheep in wolf’s clothing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ARMY over Arkansas St by 11
Army has covered in every one of its last 12 wins and the Black
Knights of the Hudson can certainly win this. Arkansas State does
not have Middle Tennessee’s skill at pulling the unexpected. The
Indians are a miserable 1-62 SU in their last 63 non-conference
road games. 1-62! Army has enough to get the win and cover
over the poor travelling Tribe. Besides, the Cadets have won more
games this year than they did in the previous three years
combined. Lay the small number.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MIAMI FLA over Georgia Tech by 13
Another storm-havoc rescheduled game finds the Yellow Jackets
flying into a real Hurricane as Miami has its sights on an ACC
title rematch with Florida State in the championship game.
Thanks to the top defense in the land, Miami has played its way
into the #3 slot in the BCS polls while the Techsters are hanging
by a thread in hopes of garnering a ninth straight bowl bid. Key
stat is Miami's 0-8 ATS mark in games off an ATS win as double
digit chalk. Points look appealing with Tech's formidable defense
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:30pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence:
3 BEST BET
TENNESSEE over Jacksonville by 7
The Jags finally did it. They reached the 30-point scoring
level last week for the first time in 49 games. Now its time
for a return to earth and the Titans are rested and ready to
comply. Jacksonville is 3-11 SU against Tennessee, including
1-6 ATS as a favorite. With Fred Taylor ailing, Jacksonville’s
chances of running for 100 or more yards are severely
diminished. The Jags are 10-28 SU on the road when they
rush for less than 100. Furthermore, division home dogs
playing with rest off a loss of six or more points are a sweet
23-7 ATS, including 18-3 ATS when facing off against a .500
or better foe. Jags drop to 0-9 ATS as road favs off a SU
non-division home win here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
5 BEST BET
CHICAGO over Carolina by 14
Most likely it’s a function of the weather on the western
shore of Lake Michigan, but Chicago is tough to beat in
November on its home field. The Bears, when they are a
winning team as they are now, are 18-5-1 ATS in the Turkey
month against other winning teams. The Panthers check in
with an atrocious 0-10 ATS log as favorites off a win of 14
or more points and 0-6 ATS as chalk against .666 or better
opposition. It's never hard backing the league's #1 defensive
unit as a dog, especially when they're allowing a mere 12
PPG. Call this our NIKE special – Just do it!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4 BEST BET
Seattle over SAN FRANCISCO by 10
The Forty Niners have taken their lumps on a regular basis when
they leave the city by the bay but here, on the Pacific shore, they
come up with a good effort every now and then. The problem
with taking the Niners is that you’re taking the NINERS. Seattle
is an astounding 75-3 ATS in its last 78 road wins and just a scant
three points from being 78-0 in those games. Regardless, a huge
angle from our system book says to back the Niners here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
best bets:
3* fresno state,,titans.. denver under,,
4* cali..pack..wash over
5* oregon..bears..giants under
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:30pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence:
Monday, November 21st
GREEN BAY over Minnesota by 15
The Vikings take to the road off a rare road victory knowing
they are 6-16 SU & ATS away from the Metrodome off win.
The Vikings will also have to beat down Green Bay’s 10-1
ATS log as division home chalk of less than -4 points, the
12-3 ATS Monday night mark owned by the Pack and Brett
Favre’s 10-4 ATS record in his last 14 division revenge games.
With the Pack returning home off a previous home loss,
look for the ghosts of the past to move to Green and Gold
against a Minny bunch that is 0-6 ATS when going into same
season division revenge. THE PACK IS BACK!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DENVER over NY Jets by 13
If you take a look at Denver’s 4-13-1 ATS mark against opponents
off BB losses or its 2-8 ATS mark against the AFC East, you might
reach into your pocket for some Jet money. The hand quickly
goes back into the pant hole when Denver’s 88-26 SU record at
home in non-division games comes up, especially when the
14-98-4 ATS mark of the Jets in SU non-division losses is brought
to light. You have to have a good reason to fade Denver in their
own corral. We don’t.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE by 4
We are still amazed by how close Baltimore came to winning
the first match against the Steelers without their two best
defensive players. It kind of makes you want to give the Ravens
a shot in this game. There’s no question that this is a bitter rivalry
and that nothing will be left on the field when this one is over.
Pittsburgh brings more ONTO the field, though and the Steelers
are a decent 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight trips to the Harbor.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Kansas City over HOUSTON by 4
We won’t kid by hinting that we might like Houston here. We
are, however, enamored with Ugly Pig home dogs, especially
UPS (Ugly Pig Syndrome) home dogs of this size. Kansas City
probably wants to get through this game and get home to start
preparing for the defending Super Bowl champs followed by
the AFC West leader. Houston is not on the mind of the Chiefs.
In the NFL, you must focus on EVERY opponent, no matter how
bads. Texans are 5-0-1 ATS in games after tackling the Colts.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WASHINGTON over Oakland by 4
Oakland is another team that has its problems away from home.
The Raiders have won just three of their last 21 road games,
notching only seven covers in those 21 games. Washington used
to be a go-against team at home but the Redskins have won and
covered six of the last seven here. Bottom line is we can't trust a
Washington squad that has lost eight straight games to the AFC.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
DALLAS over Detroit by 10
The Lions are 4-32 SU on the road in their last 36 trips. They
have, however, covered six of the last seven against winning
teams and 6-1 ATS in the last seven years in the week before
their annual Thanksgiving game. So is Dallas, and the Cowboys
add to that 6-1 ATS mark with an 11-2 ATS log against NFC North
teams. The Cowboy defense has been dominant at home this
year allowing less than 13 ppg in the HoleDome. With Lions'
mentor Steve Mariucci the answer to this week's Trivia Teaser
(see page 2), we'll stay in the Big 'D' – Dallas, that is – here today.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Philadelphia over NY GIANTS by 3
Philly is just 4-16 ATS on the division road against an opponent
off BB wins while the Giants are 20-5-1 ATS as division home
chalk of -3 or more off a SU win. Those impressive numbers aside,
Philadelphia has its back to the wall here. Lose this game and
the Eagles fall so far behind the New Yorkers that it may be
impossible to catch up before season's end. We applaud Andy
Reid for his actions against the insufferable Terrell Owens and
we’re kinda rootin’ for the big guy here. We also like the fact
the G-Men are 1-13 ATS at home during Turkey Month..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CLEVELAND over Miami by 3
Trent Dilfer and Gus Frerotte face off in the battle of aging hasbeens
that never were. Miami probably has better personnel that
the men of Lake Erie but that doesn’t always translate into victory,
especially in this league. Miami is 1-10 SU in its last 11 true road
games with the only win coming against San Francisco High and
the Dolphins will need to win to get the money. The banks of
the North Coast sends shivers through the boys from South Beach.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~
Seattle over SAN FRANCISCO by 10
The Forty Niners have taken their lumps on a regular basis when
they leave the city by the bay but here, on the Pacific shore, they
come up with a good effort every now and then. The problem
with taking the Niners is that you’re taking the NINERS. Seattle
is an astounding 75-3 ATS in its last 78 road wins and just a scant
three points from being 78-0 in those games. Regardless, a huge
angle from our system book says to back the Niners here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SAN DIEGO over Buffalo by 13
Buffalo has played a lot better with Kelly Holcomb running the
show but the defense still hasn’t rebounded from the loss of
Takeo Spikes. San Diego, though, has no mercy on losing teams
who venture into the Navy Base (six straight wins here against
losers. You can’t Buffalo us. Not today... yoo many rushing
numbers in Diego's favor to ignore here as Bills are 8-78-1 ATS
in SU losses when playing off a SU & ATS win.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ATLANTA over Tampa Bay by 6
Although Tampa Bay has dominated the series of late from a
pointspread perspective (7-2 ATS last nine), Atlanta can run the
football better than any team in the NFL and that is a concern
here, especially with the Dirty Birds in off an embarrassing home
loss last week. Would you care to guess how many games the
Buccaneers have won on the road against winning teams who run
for 100 or more against them? Zero! Zed! Nada! Tampa is 0-17 SU
and 4-13 ATS when that happens. We're not in a hurry to lay too
many points, though, as the Bucs own the superior defense.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Indianapolis over CINCINNATI by 3
There has already been talk on the networks that this is the end
of the undefeated season for Indianapolis. We’re not sure how
the talking heads came to that conclusion nor are we sure we
agree with them. The Colts are 3-13 ATS against opponents off
BB SU wins and Cincinnati is 8-3 ATS at home against foes off BB
SU wins. The Bengals have the firepower to get this done. We’ll
take a hard look at the underdog Stripers in the 'War of I-74'.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW ENGLAND over New Orleans by 7
New Orleans has faced just about every type of adversity a team
can face, including a series of badly officiated games that, had
they been called properly, could have resulted in a couple more
Saint wins. New England has problems of its own, but the Patriot
organization has more ability to cure its woes than the Saints
have of solving theirs. New England is 9-1-1 ATS against NFC foes
and hasn’t lost BB home games since falling to the Packers and
the Broncos in October of 2002. Still, the feeling here is they are
posting too many points to a dangerous, well traveled roadster.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ST LOUIS over Arizona by 6
Yes, the Rams own all the trends in this division battle. The
Cardinals, though, bring the better stats into the fray, and a dash
of same season revenge to boot. We have an attraction for division
dogs that own the better defense, especially the kind that are on
a string of losses. Look for the erratic, over rated Rams to drop to
1-8 ATS as a favorite of six or more points. Grab the points.
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:31pm -
0 likes
Confidential Kick-Off!!
The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping
Leaders For 48 Seasons!
CKO Vol. 44 November 17-21, 2005 No. 12
11 *NOTRE DAME over Syracuse
Late Score Forecast:
*NOTRE DAME 54 - Syracuse 7
CKO sources urge us to lay the lumber in this anticipated blowout, since
floundering 1-8 Syracuse still can't execute new HC Greg Robinson's West
Coast offense (10 ppg last 5) with any proficiency. Ever-shaky Orange QBs
Patterson or Fields (combined 8 of 25 vs. S. Florida) will continue to
misfire, especially since sluggish ground attack (110 ypg, 3.0 ypc) needn't
be respected by hard-charging ND front 7. What a world of difference on the
other side. ND's loaded, smooth-functioning pro-style attack (39
ppg)-expertly directed by smart, accurate QB Quinn (66%, 27 TDs, 5
ints.)-will light up board vs. the overworked, discouraged Orange defense
that must pick its poison here. Smallish 'Cuse CBs ill-equipped to cover
Irish's rangy 6-5 WRs Samardzija (56 grabs, 12 TDs), Stovall & 6-4 TE Fasano
(40 catches), while speedy RB Walker (797 YR) gets to the perimeter without
much resistence. Morever, Irish veterans reportedly haven't forgotten 38-13
pasting at Carrier Dome 2 years ago, so every reason to believe Orange's poor
road dog mark (8-19 since '95; 0-3 TY) remains intact vs. Weiss'squad that is
a "backdoor" TD (Navy scored with 1:17 on clock) away from going 8-1 vs.
spread.
10 PENN STATE over *Michigan State
Late Score Forecast:
PENN STATE 34 - *Michigan State 16
Penn State needs a win in this game to secure the Big Ten title and a highly
coveted BCS bowl bid. The Nittany Lions have a chance to turn in the best
record at the school since Paterno's '94 squad ran the table 12-0. The
veteran, senior-laden Penn State defense (10 returning starters) is among the
best around, ranking 8th against the run, and yields less than 16 ppg. That
unit gave up just 15 ppg last season. The LB corps, anchored by jr. LB jr.
Paul Posluszny, has been sensational. Soph Dan Connor's return from
suspension has been a boon (5th in tackles despite only starting 4 of 10
games). A big difference this season has been the improved offense, which is
designed by respected o.c. Galen Hall and fueled by speedy frosh and redshirt
frosh playmakers recruited the last two seasons. MSU has had its moments
offensively, but defensive and special teams breakdowns have plagued the
Spartans all year. QB Drew Stanton has cooled considerably since 4-0 start,
throwing just 6 TD passes & 5 ints. in last 4. Paterno celebrates.
10 UAB over *Utep
Late Score Forecast:
UAB 35 - *Utep 33
Picking UAB to win straight up at El Paso might be a bit of a reach, as
Blazers often find a way to lose games. But when UAB goes down, it usually
isn't by much. This season's 5 losses have come by a total of 24 points.
None has been by double digits, with two by a single point. And Blazers have
covered 9 of their last 12 as a dog. Expect more of the same against Miners.
UTEP's vulnerable defense has allowed 69 points in last 2 games vs. Div. I-A
foes. UAB sr. QB Darrell Hackney is a highly-regarded NFL prospect who's
averaging 302 ypg passing TY. He has 44 TDP (vs. only 16 ints.) in last 1+
seasons. And complementary jr. RBs Corey White (6-2, 230; 200 YR in recent
upset at Memphis) & Marculus Elliott (5-9, 190; TD runs of 52 & 22 yards last
week) giving Blazer offense better balance lately. Acknowledge potency of
Miners' own attack. But UAB's frequent blitzes could force mistake-prone jr.
QB Jordan Palmer (42 career ints.) into some critical errors.
10 *OREGON over Oregon State
Late Score Forecast:
*OREGON 42 - Oregon State 16
Special situation in TY's "Civil War" rivalry, one of the most bitter in the
nation, as knee injury suffered by Oregon State QB Matt Moore means that both
teams will be counting on backup QBs! And that's where the edges for the
Ducks begin to mount. CKO scouts in Pacific Northwest lavish in their praise
of the way OU coach Bellotti has developed and juggled soph backups Dennis
Dixon & Brady Leaf in 2- games since starter Kellen Clemens was lost with
broken ankle, with the duo hitting 28 of 39 for 296 yds., with 2 TDs & 1 int.
in come-from-behind win last week on the road at Washington State, not to
mention the winning fourth-Q TDP vs. Cal the week before at home. OSU soph
Ryan Gunderson (54%, 1 TD, 0 ints. in 59 atts. TY) being asked to make his
first start at the noisiest stadium in Pac-10. Oregon, still fuming about
LY's 50-21 loss to then-veteran Beavers at Corvallis LY, have lost only to
Southern Cal TY and would love to return the favor to OSU.
10 *DALLAS over Detroit
Late Score Forecast:
*DALLAS 28 - Detroit 10
(Sunday, November 20)
NFL insiders say the root of Detroit's offensive woes this season has not
been Joey Harrington, although he is usually the main focus of the fans'
barbs. It's the underachieving OL that has kept Kevin Jones from having a
single 100-yard game and has lowered his average to 3.0 ypc. Thus,
Harrington is too often quickly swamped by defenders, with the result being
many errant tosses under pressure requiring difficult catches by WRs with the
offense sinking to 28th. After facing injury-depleted Arizona last week at
home, Harrington now faces deep, young aggressive Dallas defense that rotates
its front three to keep them fresh. Young DE Canty & LB/DE Ware improving
every game, with Cowboys holding five straight foes to a single TD prior to
Monday nighter in Philly.
TOTALS: UNDER (34) in Miami-Cleveland game-Two immobile QBs on run-oriented
teams; Browns "under" 7 of 9 TY...UNDER (44) in Minnesota-Green Bay
game-Packer defense vastly improved; no Daunte & Randy to strike for big
plays for Vikes.
HONORABLE MENTION: SAN DIEGO STATE (-7) vs. Wyoming-RB L. Hamilton & QB
O'Connell were in fine form in victory at Colorado State; Wyo has lost 5 in
a row SU & vs. the spread...MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (+17.5) at North Carolina
State-Middle's offense finally helping out; N.S. State has managed 10
straight Ls as a home favorite...NORTH TEXAS (+4.5) vs. La.-Monroe-Mean Green
finally got some QBing last week; Monroe defense vulnerable to Patrick Cobbs'
runs...N.Y. GIANTS (-4) vs. Philadelphia-Giants coach Coughlin fuming about
last week's turnovers and STs gaffs; Philly missing too many elements on
offense.
posted by phantom
Nov. 15 2005 1:31pm -
0 likes
Pointwise NFL 2-SD 3-ATL 4-KC 5-Chi, Sea
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Pointwise NCAA 16-0 L2 weeks 1-Tulsa, BYU 2-NWU 3-SDSU 4-MSU, Iowa 5-Navy, TxTk
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2005 1:45pm -
0 likes
MEJIA's SELECTIONS:
Projected Scores
Week 12
Miami (Ohio) 44 Bowling Green 27
Akron 17 Ohio 14
Toledo 35 Northern Illinois 31
Miami (Fla.) 39 Wake Forest 10
South Florida 38 Cincinnati 13
Ball State 34 Central Michigan 23
Army 31 Arkansas State 16
North Carolina State 24 Middle Tennessee 13
Navy 40 Temple 3
Eastern Michigan 24 Buffalo 17
Arkansas 27 Mississippi State 13
Texas Tech 36 Oklahoma 20
Notre Dame 35 Syracuse 10
Boise State 45 Idaho 23
Nevada 37 Utah State 20
Central Florida 30 Rice 17
Washington State 41 Washington 24
Marshall 27 East Carolina 13
San Jose State 31 New Mexico State 24
Florida International 24 Western Kentucky 20
Oregon 40 Oregon State 27
Stanford 38 California 31
Tulsa 45 Tulane 20
Louisiana-Monroe 20 La.-Lafayette 17
Southern Mississippi 31 Memphis 19
Texas-El Paso 38 UAB 34
Southern California 37 Fresno State 17
Miami (Ohio) 44 Ohio 14
New Mexico 20 Air Force 17
LSU 24 Mississippi 6
Auburn 20 Alabama 10
Maryland 24 Boston College 16
Iowa 34 Minnesota 24
Baylor 20 Oklahoma State 16
Kansas State 27 Missouri 20
Utah 31 Brigham Young 24
North Carolina 54 Duke 7
Northwestern 45 Illinois 27
Michigan 27 Ohio State 24
Purdue 34 Indiana 23
San Diego State 34 Wyoming 24
Clemson 30 South Carolina 17
Colorado State 27 UNLV 21
Tennessee 30 Vanderbilt 17
Virginia 20 Virginia Tech 17
Georgia 34 Kentucky 6
Penn State 45 Michigan State 34
Home team is in bold.
His underdogs to win outright:
Virginia
Utah
Kansas State
Michigan
Stanford
Ball State
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2005 1:45pm -
0 likes
HARMON FORECAST:
Game of the Week
*Michigan 24, Ohio State 23
This will be the 102nd meeding as Michigan has a 57-38-6 edge. The home team has won the last three meetings, so we give the Wolverines the edge by one point.
Week of Nov. 18
Major Colleges - Div. I-A
*Arkansas 24 Mississippi State 12
Arkansas State 20 *Army 17
*Akron 27 Ohio 24
*Auburn 20 Alabama 17
*Ball State 28 Central Michigan 27
*Boise State 41 Idaho 14
*Brigham Young 28 Utah 24
California 33 *Stanford 24
Central Florida 27 *Rice 7
Clemson 24 *South Carolina 23
Colorado State 31 *UNLV 22
Eastern Michigan 34 *Buffalo 7
*Florida International 24 Western Kentucky 14
*Georgia 24 Kentucky 7
*Kansas State 27 Missouri 25
*Louisiana-Monroe 27 La.-Lafayette 21
LSU 21 *Mississippi 6
*Marshall 26 East Carolina 21
*Maryland 24 Boston College 23
*Miami (Fla.) 28 Georgia Tech 16
*Miami (Ohio) 30 Bowling Green 24
*Michigan 24 Ohio State 23
Minnesota 30 *Iowa 23
*Navy 26 Temple 6
Nevada 31 *Utah State 17
*New Mexico 27 Air Force 20
*North Carolina 23 Duke 16
*North Carolina State 31 Middle Tennessee 21
Northwestern 35 *Illinois 14
*Notre Dame 38 Syracuse 10
Oklahoma State 34 *Baylor 24
*Oregon 34 Oregon State 31
Penn State 29 *Michigan State 27
Purdue 28 *Indiana 14
*San Diego State 23 Wyoming 20
*San Jose State 28 New Mexico State 24
*South Florida 31 Cincinnati 20
*Southern California 37 Fresno State 24
*Southern Mississippi 24 Memphis 23
*Tennessee 17 Vanderbilt 10
*Texas-El Paso 24 UAB 17
*Texas Tech 31 Oklahoma 24
*Toledo 31 Northern Illinois 23
Tulsa 31 *Tulane 17
Virginia Tech 23 *Virginia 14
Washington State 34 *Washington 24
* - Denotes home team
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2005 1:46pm -
0 likes
SUNSHINE FORECAST: College
Official Selections:
November 19, 2005
Texas Tech (-7½) 51 vs. Oklahoma 24
Notre Dame 44 vs. Syracuse (+35) 26
Brigham Young (-11½) 40 vs. Utah 21
Virginia (+8½) 15 vs. Virginia Tech 13
The rest:
Saturday, November 19, 2005
Boston College(-2) at Maryland
Power Rating Projection:
Boston College 22 Maryland 20
Statistical Projections
Boston College 29
Rushing Yards: 145
Passing Yards: 281
Turnovers: 1 Maryland 21
Rushing Yards: 115
Passing Yards: 234
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boston College 17 Maryland 14
Purdue(-11½) at Indiana
Power Rating Projection:
Purdue 29 Indiana 23
Statistical Projections
Purdue 38
Rushing Yards: 208
Passing Yards: 296
Turnovers: 2 Indiana 22
Rushing Yards: 96
Passing Yards: 238
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Purdue 28 Indiana 23
Historical trend: Take Indiana ( Domination by home team, 7-1, 87.5% )
Missouri(Pk) at Kansas State
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas State 23 Missouri 21
Statistical Projections
Missouri 32
Rushing Yards: 203
Passing Yards: 224
Turnovers: 2 Kansas State 24
Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 211
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas State 18 Missouri 16
Northwestern(-15) at Illinois
Power Rating Projection:
Northwestern 41 Illinois 24
Statistical Projections
Northwestern 50
Rushing Yards: 239
Passing Yards: 353
Turnovers: 1 Illinois 26
Rushing Yards: 215
Passing Yards: 202
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Northwestern 48 Illinois 31
Minnesota(+4) at Iowa
Power Rating Projection:
Iowa 28 Minnesota 24
Statistical Projections
Minnesota 30
Rushing Yards: 242
Passing Yards: 209
Turnovers: 1 Iowa 30
Rushing Yards: 168
Passing Yards: 251
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Iowa 28 Minnesota 24
Historical trend: Take Iowa ( Domination at home by Iowa, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Iowa ( Domination by Iowa, 7-1, 87.5% )
Central Michigan(-5) at Ball State
Power Rating Projection:
Central Michigan 26 Ball State 22
Statistical Projections
Central Michigan 36
Rushing Yards: 216
Passing Yards: 281
Turnovers: 1 Ball State 20
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 194
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Central Michigan
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Central Michigan 23 Ball State 20
Duke(+26) at North Carolina
Power Rating Projection:
North Carolina 31 Duke 10
Statistical Projections
Duke 15
Rushing Yards: 109
Passing Yards: 127
Turnovers: 2 North Carolina 36
Rushing Yards: 176
Passing Yards: 263
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
North Carolina 25 Duke 3
Historical trend: Take North Carolina ( Domination by North Carolina, 7-1, 87.5% )
Cincinnati(+17) at South Florida
Power Rating Projection:
South Florida 34 Cincinnati 16
Statistical Projections
Cincinnati 20
Rushing Yards: 137
Passing Yards: 207
Turnovers: 3 South Florida 40
Rushing Yards: 272
Passing Yards: 199
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Florida 31 Cincinnati 14
Kentucky(+27) at Georgia
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia 37 Kentucky 11
Statistical Projections
Kentucky 16
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 159
Turnovers: 3 Georgia 32
Rushing Yards: 208
Passing Yards: 225
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Kentucky
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia 38 Kentucky 10
Louisiana State(-17) at Mississippi
Power Rating Projection:
Louisiana State 28 Mississippi 7
Statistical Projections
Louisiana State 25
Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 191
Turnovers: 2 Mississippi 10
Rushing Yards: 82
Passing Yards: 138
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisiana State 23 Mississippi 3
Historical trend: Take Mississippi ( Domination by underdog, 7-1, 87.5% )
Vanderbilt(+11½) at Tennessee
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee 27 Vanderbilt 18
Statistical Projections
Vanderbilt 26
Rushing Yards: 75
Passing Yards: 298
Turnovers: 2 Tennessee 36
Rushing Yards: 207
Passing Yards: 225
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tennessee 27 Vanderbilt 19
Ohio State(-2½) at Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan 26 Ohio State 25
Statistical Projections
Ohio State 28
Rushing Yards: 183
Passing Yards: 197
Turnovers: 2 Michigan 19
Rushing Yards: 96
Passing Yards: 191
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan 25 Ohio State 24
Temple(+27) at Navy
Power Rating Projection:
Navy 49 Temple 17
Statistical Projections
Temple 13
Rushing Yards: 77
Passing Yards: 165
Turnovers: 2 Navy 40
Rushing Yards: 307
Passing Yards: 146
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Navy 56 Temple 24
Eastern Michigan(-5) at Buffalo
Power Rating Projection:
Eastern Michigan 21 Buffalo 18
Statistical Projections
Eastern Michigan 23
Rushing Yards: 122
Passing Yards: 206
Turnovers: 1 Buffalo 15
Rushing Yards: 136
Passing Yards: 131
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Eastern Michigan 14 Buffalo 12
Mississippi State(+14) at Arkansas
Power Rating Projection:
Arkansas 24 Mississippi State 10
Statistical Projections
Mississippi State 16
Rushing Yards: 106
Passing Yards: 168
Turnovers: 2 Arkansas 25
Rushing Yards: 200
Passing Yards: 162
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arkansas 19 Mississippi State 6
Historical trend: Take Mississippi State ( Domination by underdog, 7-1, 87.5% )
Oklahoma(+7½) at Texas Tech
Power Rating Projection:
Texas Tech 39 Oklahoma 24
Statistical Projections
Oklahoma 23
Rushing Yards: 186
Passing Yards: 154
Turnovers: 3 Texas Tech 30
Rushing Yards: 54
Passing Yards: 352
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Tech 51 Oklahoma 24
Texas Tech (1 star)
Angle: After Losing as 20-Point Chalk
Go against Texas Tech ( Favored by 1 to 19½ points (or PK), 3-13, 18.8% )
Syracuse(+35) at Notre Dame
Power Rating Projection:
Notre Dame 45 Syracuse 15
Statistical Projections
Syracuse 17
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 170
Turnovers: 3 Notre Dame 34
Rushing Yards: 163
Passing Yards: 272
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Syracuse
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Notre Dame 44 Syracuse 26
Syracuse (1 star)
Angle: Fourth Straight Home Game
Go against Notre Dame ( Won previous three games, Favored in 1st three games, 7-15, 31.8% )
Oklahoma State(+4) at Baylor
Power Rating Projection:
Oklahoma State 24 Baylor 22
Statistical Projections
Oklahoma State 21
Rushing Yards: 185
Passing Yards: 126
Turnovers: 3 Baylor 20
Rushing Yards: 145
Passing Yards: 230
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oklahoma State 24 Baylor 22
U-C-F(-10) at Rice
Power Rating Projection:
U-C-F 32 Rice 24
Statistical Projections
U-C-F 46
Rushing Yards: 210
Passing Yards: 329
Turnovers: 1 Rice 23
Rushing Yards: 247
Passing Yards: 115
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to U-C-F
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U-C-F 35 Rice 27
Idaho(+29½) at Boise State
Power Rating Projection:
Boise State 49 Idaho 12
Statistical Projections
Idaho 15
Rushing Yards: 60
Passing Yards: 231
Turnovers: 2 Boise State 40
Rushing Yards: 243
Passing Yards: 234
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boise State 55 Idaho 18
Nevada-Reno(-9½) at Utah State
Power Rating Projection:
Nevada-Reno 30 Utah State 26
Statistical Projections
Nevada-Reno 34
Rushing Yards: 163
Passing Yards: 290
Turnovers: 2 Utah State 22
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 196
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nevada-Reno 31 Utah State 28
Washington State(-3) at Washington
Power Rating Projection:
Washington State 34 Washington 28
Statistical Projections
Washington State 36
Rushing Yards: 196
Passing Yards: 302
Turnovers: 2 Washington 23
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Washington State
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Washington State 41 Washington 34
Historical trend: Take Washington ( Domination by underdog, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Washington ( Domination by underdog at Washington, 4-0, 100.0% )
Alabama(+7) at Auburn
Power Rating Projection:
Auburn 25 Alabama 15
Statistical Projections
Alabama 21
Rushing Yards: 163
Passing Yards: 200
Turnovers: 1 Auburn 23
Rushing Yards: 158
Passing Yards: 224
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Auburn 20 Alabama 10
Historical trend: Take Alabama ( Domination on the road by Alabama, 4-0, 100.0% )
Penn State(-7) at Michigan State
Power Rating Projection:
Penn State 31 Michigan State 25
Statistical Projections
Penn State 38
Rushing Yards: 232
Passing Yards: 236
Turnovers: 2 Michigan State 23
Rushing Yards: 140
Passing Yards: 241
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Penn State 34 Michigan State 28
Historical trend: Take Michigan State ( Domination by home team, 7-1, 87.5% )
Utah(+11½) at Brigham Young
Power Rating Projection:
Brigham Young 29 Utah 27
Statistical Projections
Utah 30
Rushing Yards: 170
Passing Yards: 306
Turnovers: 3 Brigham Young 31
Rushing Yards: 145
Passing Yards: 300
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Utah
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Brigham Young 40 Utah 21
Brigham Young (1 star)
Historical trend: Take Utah ( Domination by underdog, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Utah ( Domination by underdog at Brigham Young, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Utah ( Domination by visiting team, 6-2, 75.0% )
East Carolina(+6½) at Marshall
Power Rating Projection:
Marshall 30 East Carolina 22
Statistical Projections
East Carolina 24
Rushing Yards: 91
Passing Yards: 245
Turnovers: 2 Marshall 25
Rushing Yards: 160
Passing Yards: 203
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Marshall 30 East Carolina 22
U-A-B(+7½) at UTEP
Power Rating Projection:
UTEP 34 U-A-B 25
Statistical Projections
U-A-B 20
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 218
Turnovers: 2 UTEP 28
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 283
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UTEP 38 U-A-B 30
New Mexico State(+6) at San Jose State
Power Rating Projection:
San Jose State 39 New Mexico State 24
Statistical Projections
New Mexico State 25
Rushing Yards: 74
Passing Yards: 341
Turnovers: 3 San Jose State 29
Rushing Yards: 139
Passing Yards: 236
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Jose State 45 New Mexico State 31
Oregon State(+13) at Oregon
Power Rating Projection:
Oregon 34 Oregon State 23
Statistical Projections
Oregon State 24
Rushing Yards: 123
Passing Yards: 244
Turnovers: 4 Oregon 37
Rushing Yards: 110
Passing Yards: 380
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon 36 Oregon State 26
Historical trend: Take Oregon ( Domination by home team, 7-1, 87.5% )
Tulsa(-14) at Tulane
Power Rating Projection:
Tulsa 35 Tulane 25
Statistical Projections
Tulsa 38
Rushing Yards: 179
Passing Yards: 246
Turnovers: 1 Tulane 20
Rushing Yards: 99
Passing Yards: 197
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulsa 40 Tulane 30
Clemson(+1) at South Carolina
Power Rating Projection:
South Carolina 26 Clemson 25
Statistical Projections
Clemson 25
Rushing Yards: 167
Passing Yards: 198
Turnovers: 1 South Carolina 20
Rushing Yards: 74
Passing Yards: 213
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
South Carolina 25 Clemson 24
Historical trend: Take Clemson ( Domination by Clemson, 6-2, 75.0% )
California(-4½) at Stanford
Power Rating Projection:
California 34 Stanford 26
Statistical Projections
California 32
Rushing Yards: 239
Passing Yards: 208
Turnovers: 2 Stanford 19
Rushing Yards: 76
Passing Yards: 195
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
California 38 Stanford 31
Colorado State(-15½) at Nevada-Las Vegas
Power Rating Projection:
Colorado State 36 Nevada-Las Vegas 24
Statistical Projections
Colorado State 34
Rushing Yards: 106
Passing Yards: 339
Turnovers: 1 Nevada-Las Vegas 21
Rushing Yards: 119
Passing Yards: 249
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Colorado State 35 Nevada-Las Vegas 24
Historical trend: Take Nevada-Las Vegas ( Domination by underdog, 6-1, 85.7% )
Virginia Tech(-8½) at Virginia
Power Rating Projection:
Virginia Tech 25 Virginia 15
Statistical Projections
Virginia Tech 26
Rushing Yards: 185
Passing Yards: 175
Turnovers: 2 Virginia 15
Rushing Yards: 122
Passing Yards: 147
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Virginia 15 Virginia Tech 13
Virginia (1 star)
Angle: After Bye Week
Go against Virginia Tech ( Playing on the Road, Favored by 7½+ Points, 54-92-2, 37.0% )
Historical trend: Take Virginia ( Domination by home team, 6-2, 75.0% )
Historical trend: Take Virginia Tech ( Domination by favorite, 6-2, 75.0% )
Air Force(+13) at New Mexico
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico 31 Air Force 24
Statistical Projections
Air Force 30
Rushing Yards: 234
Passing Yards: 179
Turnovers: 2 New Mexico 35
Rushing Yards: 216
Passing Yards: 254
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico 31 Air Force 25
Historical trend: Take New Mexico ( Domination by home team, 6-1, 85.7% )
Memphis(+7½) at Southern Miss
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Miss 31 Memphis 27
Statistical Projections
Memphis 27
Rushing Yards: 259
Passing Yards: 166
Turnovers: 2 Southern Miss 28
Rushing Yards: 87
Passing Yards: 283
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Miss 35 Memphis 31
Historical trend: Take Southern Miss ( Domination at home by Southern Miss, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Southern Miss ( Domination by Southern Miss, 7-1, 87.5% )
Historical trend: Take Southern Miss ( Domination by favorite at Southern Miss, 4-0, 100.0% )
Wyoming(+6½) at San Diego State
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego State 32 Wyoming 25
Statistical Projections
Wyoming 21
Rushing Yards: 136
Passing Yards: 208
Turnovers: 3 San Diego State 22
Rushing Yards: 141
Passing Yards: 172
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego State 34 Wyoming 28
Fresno State(+25) at Southern Cal
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Cal 42 Fresno State 25
Statistical Projections
Fresno State 26
Rushing Yards: 166
Passing Yards: 191
Turnovers: 2 Southern Cal 36
Rushing Yards: 237
Passing Yards: 262
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Fresno State
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 49 Fresno State 31
Middle Tennessee(+18) at No Carolina State
Power Rating Projection:
No Carolina State 26 Middle Tennessee 18
Statistical Projections
Middle Tennessee 18
Rushing Yards: 64
Passing Yards: 183
Turnovers: 1 No Carolina State 21
Rushing Yards: 125
Passing Yards: 199
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to Middle Tennessee
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
No Carolina State 21 Middle Tennessee 13
Arkansas State(+7) at Army
Power Rating Projection:
Army 29 Arkansas State 21
Statistical Projections
Arkansas State 22
Rushing Yards: 164
Passing Yards: 153
Turnovers: 2 Army 17
Rushing Yards: 158
Passing Yards: 154
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Arkansas State
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Army 27 Arkansas State 19
Georgia Tech(+18½) at Miami-Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Miami-Florida 31 Georgia Tech 12
Statistical Projections
Georgia Tech 12
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 110
Turnovers: 3 Miami-Florida 25
Rushing Yards: 138
Passing Yards: 213
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami-Florida 24 Georgia Tech 7
S-M-U(+12½) at Houston
Power Rating Projection:
Houston 33 S-M-U 19
Statistical Projections
S-M-U 18
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 162
Turnovers: 2 Houston 29
Rushing Yards: 150
Passing Yards: 298
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Houston 33 S-M-U 19
Western Kentucky at Florida Intl
Power Rating Projection:
Florida Intl 25 Western Kentucky 23
Statistical Projections
No statistical projections for this game
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida Intl 23 Western Kentucky 20
UL-Monroe(-4½) at North Texas
Power Rating Projection:
UL-Monroe 28 North Texas 27
Statistical Projections
UL-Monroe 30
Rushing Yards: 175
Passing Yards: 280
Turnovers: 2 North Texas 17
Rushing Yards: 168
Passing Yards: 133
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UL-Monroe 30 North Texas 28
Historical trend: Take North Texas ( Domination by home team, 4-0, 100.0% )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, November 21, 2005
Miami-Ohio at Ohio
Power Rating Projection:
Miami-Ohio 29 Ohio 20
Statistical Projections
Miami-Ohio 37
Rushing Yards: 145
Passing Yards: 354
Turnovers: 2 Ohio 20
Rushing Yards: 174
Passing Yards: 124
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami-Ohio 27 Ohio 18
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2005 1:47pm -
0 likes
SUNSHINE FORECAST: NFL
Official Selections:
November 20, 2005
Seattle Seahawks (-12) 36 at San Francisco 49ers 16
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
November 21, 2005
Green Bay Packers (-3½) 37 vs. Minnesota Vikings 16
The rest:
Sunday, November 20, 2005
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Chicago Bears
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 24 Chicago Bears 18
Statistical Projections
Carolina Panthers 21
Rushing Yards: 77
Passing Yards: 238
Turnovers: 2 Chicago Bears 13
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 152
Turnovers: 4
** Statistical edge to Carolina Panthers
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 26 Chicago Bears 20
Jacksonville Jaguars(-4) at Tennessee Titans
Power Rating Projection:
Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Tennessee Titans 18
Statistical Projections
Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Rushing Yards: 135
Passing Yards: 243
Turnovers: 1 Tennessee Titans 18
Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 225
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to Jacksonville Jaguars
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Tennessee Titans 17
Indianapolis Colts (-4½) at Cincinnati Bengals
Power Rating Projection:
Indianapolis Colts 22 Cincinnati Bengals 19
Statistical Projections
Indianapolis Colts 24
Rushing Yards: 143
Passing Yards: 216
Turnovers: 3 Cincinnati Bengals 21
Rushing Yards: 128
Passing Yards: 224
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Indianapolis Colts 20 Cincinnati Bengals 17
New Orleans Saints (+10) at New England Patriots
Power Rating Projection:
New England Patriots 26 New Orleans Saints 16
Statistical Projections
New Orleans Saints 22
Rushing Yards: 117
Passing Yards: 262
Turnovers: 2 New England Patriots 28
Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 261
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New England Patriots 24 New Orleans Saints 15
Arizona Cardinals (+9) at St Louis Rams
Power Rating Projection:
St Louis Rams 30 Arizona Cardinals 21
Statistical Projections
Arizona Cardinals 24
Rushing Yards: 90
Passing Yards: 278
Turnovers: 2 St Louis Rams 27
Rushing Yards: 103
Passing Yards: 314
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Arizona Cardinals
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
St Louis Rams 37 Arizona Cardinals 28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+6) at Atlanta Falcons
Power Rating Projection:
Atlanta Falcons 22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Statistical Projections
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18
Rushing Yards: 109
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 2 Atlanta Falcons 21
Rushing Yards: 160
Passing Yards: 153
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Atlanta Falcons 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13
Historical trend: Take Atlanta Falcons ( Domination by favorite, 7-2, 77.8% )
Historical trend: Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers ( Domination by Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-2, 77.8% )
Oakland Raiders (+6) at Washington Redskins
Power Rating Projection:
Washington Redskins 24 Oakland Raiders 19
Statistical Projections
Oakland Raiders 21
Rushing Yards: 77
Passing Yards: 227
Turnovers: 1 Washington Redskins 25
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 265
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Washington Redskins 25 Oakland Raiders 21
Detroit Lions (+8) at Dallas Cowboys
Power Rating Projection:
Dallas Cowboys 23 Detroit Lions 15
Statistical Projections
Detroit Lions 16
Rushing Yards: 103
Passing Yards: 177
Turnovers: 2 Dallas Cowboys 19
Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 223
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Detroit Lions
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 23 Detroit Lions 15
Philadelphia Eagles (+3½) at New York Giants
Power Rating Projection:
New York Giants 26 Philadelphia Eagles 21
Statistical Projections
Philadelphia Eagles 19
Rushing Yards: 65
Passing Yards: 280
Turnovers: 2 New York Giants 22
Rushing Yards: 105
Passing Yards: 233
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New York Giants 33 Philadelphia Eagles 28
Miami Dolphins (+2½) at Cleveland Browns
Power Rating Projection:
Cleveland Browns 19 Miami Dolphins 18
Statistical Projections
Miami Dolphins 20
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 2 Cleveland Browns 15
Rushing Yards: 94
Passing Yards: 205
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to Miami Dolphins
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami Dolphins 13 Cleveland Browns 12
Seattle Seahawks (-12) at San Francisco 49ers
Power Rating Projection:
Seattle Seahawks 26 San Francisco 49ers 19
Statistical Projections
Seattle Seahawks 28
Rushing Yards: 132
Passing Yards: 284
Turnovers: 2 San Francisco 49ers 12
Rushing Yards: 100
Passing Yards: 135
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Seattle Seahawks 36 San Francisco 49ers 16
Seattle Seahawks (1 star)
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road
Go against Seattle Seahawks ( No additional conditions, 42-71-3, 37.2% )
Angle: Scored 9 or Fewer Points in Consecutive Games
Go against San Francisco 49ers ( Opponent played at home in previous game, 16-26-2, 38.1% )
Angle: Home Underdogs
Go with San Francisco 49ers ( Underdog by more than 7 points, Lost on the road in previous game, 37-23-3, 61.7% )
Buffalo Bills (+9) at San Diego Chargers
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego Chargers 28 Buffalo Bills 19
Statistical Projections
Buffalo Bills 17
Rushing Yards: 109
Passing Yards: 166
Turnovers: 1 San Diego Chargers 24
Rushing Yards: 153
Passing Yards: 209
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 34 Buffalo Bills 26
Angle: After Bye Week
Go against San Diego Chargers ( Favored, Previous game was on the road, 27-46-3, 37.0% )
New York Jets (+13) at Denver Broncos
Power Rating Projection:
Denver Broncos 28 New York Jets 14
Statistical Projections
New York Jets 15
Rushing Yards: 91
Passing Yards: 179
Turnovers: 2 Denver Broncos 26
Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 208
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Denver Broncos 27 New York Jets 14
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) at Baltimore Ravens
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Baltimore Ravens 15
Statistical Projections
Pittsburgh Steelers 22
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 170
Turnovers: 1 Baltimore Ravens 14
Rushing Yards: 86
Passing Yards: 199
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 13 Baltimore Ravens 9
Angle: Home Turf versus Road Grass
Go with Baltimore Ravens ( Average line past 3 games shows home team as underdog, 57-23-1, 71.3% )
Angle: Scored 9 or Fewer Points in Consecutive Games
Go against Baltimore Ravens ( Opponent played at home in previous game, 16-26-2, 38.1% )
Historical trend: Take Pittsburgh Steelers ( Domination on the road by Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-1, 87.5% )
Kansas City Chiefs (-6½) at Houston Texans
Power Rating Projection:
Kansas City Chiefs 22 Houston Texans 19
Statistical Projections
Kansas City Chiefs 30
Rushing Yards: 147
Passing Yards: 285
Turnovers: 1 Houston Texans 18
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 166
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Kansas City Chiefs
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kansas City Chiefs 21 Houston Texans 18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, November 21, 2005
Minnesota Vikings (+3½) at Green Bay Packers
Power Rating Projection:
Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 18
Statistical Projections
Minnesota Vikings 21
Rushing Yards: 89
Passing Yards: 250
Turnovers: 1 Green Bay Packers 27
Rushing Yards: 88
Passing Yards: 290
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Green Bay Packers 37 Minnesota Vikings 16
Green Bay Packers (1 star)
Angle: After Winning as Double Digit Dog
Go against Minnesota Vikings ( Opponent played previous game on the road, 6-14-2, 30.0% )
Historical trend: Take Minnesota Vikings ( Domination by underdog, 13-4, 76.5% )
Historical trend: Take Minnesota Vikings ( Domination by underdog at Green Bay Packers, 7-1, 87.5% )
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2005 1:48pm -
0 likes
Powersweep
4* Colorado state over UNLV 44-20
3* Purdue over Indiana 41-13
3* San Diego St Over Wyoming 35-20
2* Alabama over Auburn 18-17
2* Washington over Washington State 31-26
2* Oklahoma over texas tech 31-30
4* Seattle over San Francisco 37-6
3* Carolina over Chicago 17-6
2* Cincinnati over Indianapolis 31-28
2* San Deigo over Buffalo 38-17
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2005 1:49pm -
0 likes
Red Sheet NCAA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
89-Tulsa, Boise 88-USF, Vandy, ND 87-BYU, UCF, N'west'n, Iowa
Red Sheet NFL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
88-Den 87-SD, Atl, GB
posted by phantom
Nov. 16 2005 1:49pm -
0 likes
RED SHEET
NOVEMBER 19, 2005 VOLUME 37, NUMBER 12
Tulsa 45 - TULANE 14 - (2:00 EST) -- Line opened at Tulsa minus 14, and is still minus 14. If ever a team
was emotionally & physically drained, the Greenies of Tulane are that team. Robbed of
their home, thanks to Katrina, they've seen their early 2-1 start (wins vs an SMU team which
was in off a 66-8 pounding the previous week, & in a non-lined affair with SE La). turn to
mush. They've been mauled, especially overland (allowed 801 RYs last 2 games), & last
week, became Rice's first victim of the year. On a 6-game losing streak, both SU & ATS,
they don't figure to get healthy vs the premier visiting team in the nation (5-0 vs the pts, by
an average of 23.9 ppg!). The 'Canes are only a couple of plays from being on an 8-game
run, following their brutal opening sked. Reasonable spot is worth noting.
RATING: TULSA 89
BOISE STATE 58 - Idaho 14 - (3:00) -- Line opened at Boise minus 29½, and is now minus 31. Yes, we are
aware of the heavy baggage here, but simply no other way to go. The Broncos are in off
their worst league showing since 1998, managing not a single pt in the final 59:13 in a 27-
7 loss in their WAC showdown at Fresno. Following their previous loss (Sept 10th at
OregonSt), they were not to be fooled with, & proceeded to trounce a quality Bowling Green
squad, 48-20, leading 48-6 in the 4th. In their last 2 HGs, the Broncos rolled by similar 49-
14 & 56-6 scores, covering by 15 & 17s pts. Are still in line for a decent bowl, so the
incentive is there. They catch the Vandals off a heartbreaking loss to LaTech, but note
Idaho with a 62-14 loss in its last RG vs a decent foe (Reno). This one is over early.
RATING: BOISE STATE 89
SOUTH FLORIDA 38 - Cincinnati 10 - (12:00) -- Line opened at SouthFlorida minus 17, and is now minus
19. Largest line move on the board (thru Tuesday) here, but still have to call the Bulls'
number. They've been one of the top surprises of the season. In Hall, they own one of the
true overland gems in the nation, & rank 14th in rushing "O". And try 24th in land in total
"D", despite facing the likes of PennSt, Louisville, & Miami-Fla. Of course, their shocking
45-14 upset of the Cards (51-pt cover) had the nation taking notice. By the way, that was
their last home game. As noted on Pointwise, they control their BigEast destiny. If they
run the table, they will land a prestigious BCS Bowl. The 'Bearcats are yet to impress, away
from home, & in off a 38-0 thumping at WestVirginia. More of the same.
RATING: SOUTH FLORIDA 88
TENNESSEE 27 - Vanderbilt 25 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 13, and is now minus 11½. As
our readers are well aware, the Vols are one of the worst home propositions in the nation.
Check it out: now on an 0-9 ATS run in Knoxville, while the visitor in Tennessee games is on
a 30-12 spread streak. As if that weren't reason enough to string along with the Commodores
here, the fact that the Vols are among the worst rushing teams in the land (98th), with
a still fluid QB situation, only cements it. In off squeaking by a Memphis team which was
without its splendid RB, Williams. Vandy has seen its hopeful season, turn to dust, but
'Dores took Florida into OT just 2 weeks back, & stay in this all the way.
RATING: VANDERBILT 88
NOTRE DAME 52 - Syracuse 3 - (2:20) -- Line opened at NotreDame minus 36, and is now minus 34½. We
originally had this one slotted as our top Red Sheet choice, despite the 5-TD spread, but
there is a distinct chance that the midwest may be hit with snow this weekend, thus a drop
to #5. The Irish just continue to put points on the board, averaging >41 pts in 8 of their 9
starts, including 31 vs the top team in the land, USC. Quinn has been a superb leader, with
27 TD passes, & just 5 interceptions. The 'Cuse is the exact opposite. Can't move the ball
(116th in total offense), behind its invisible offensive line. And to think that just 2 yrs ago,
the Orange beat the Irish, 38-12. Maybe a bit of revenge? Romper Room.
RATING: NOTRE DAME 88
DENVER 30 - New York Jets 10 - (4:15) -- Line opened at Denver minus 12½, and is now minus 13. It's all
over for the Jets. They've made a valiant effort, in trying to replace Pennington, along with
various other offensive performers. Now down to Bollinger at QB, who came from a pair of
TD throws, in a decent home showing vs the Chargers, to no less than 4 interceptions the
following week, at Carolina. That's enough for us, as NY is suddenly a road midget, with
losses by double digits in all 5 away games, and by an average of 16 pts. Enter the Broncos
- the epitome of consistency since their opening bomb at Miami. Just a 24-23 loss at the
Giants from 8-0 SU run. Check a 1,319-536 RY edge in their last 7 contests, along with
Plummer without a pick in his last 193 passes. Opposite directions.
RATING: DENVER 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): BYU, CentFlorida, Northwestern, Iowa -- NFL: San Diego, Atlanta, Green
Bay
posted by phantom
Nov. 18 2005 2:15pm -
0 likes
MEJIA's SELECTIONS:
Projected Scores
Week 12
Miami (Ohio) 44 Bowling Green 27
Akron 17 Ohio 14
Toledo 35 Northern Illinois 31
Miami (Fla.) 39 Wake Forest 10
South Florida 38 Cincinnati 13
Ball State 34 Central Michigan 23
Army 31 Arkansas State 16
North Carolina State 24 Middle Tennessee 13
Navy 40 Temple 3
Eastern Michigan 24 Buffalo 17
Arkansas 27 Mississippi State 13
Texas Tech 36 Oklahoma 20
Notre Dame 35 Syracuse 10
Boise State 45 Idaho 23
Nevada 37 Utah State 20
Central Florida 30 Rice 17
Washington State 41 Washington 24
Marshall 27 East Carolina 13
San Jose State 31 New Mexico State 24
Florida International 24 Western Kentucky 20
Oregon 40 Oregon State 27
Stanford 38 California 31
Tulsa 45 Tulane 20
Louisiana-Monroe 20 La.-Lafayette 17
Southern Mississippi 31 Memphis 19
Texas-El Paso 38 UAB 34
Southern California 37 Fresno State 17
Miami (Ohio) 44 Ohio 14
New Mexico 20 Air Force 17
LSU 24 Mississippi 6
Auburn 20 Alabama 10
Maryland 24 Boston College 16
Iowa 34 Minnesota 24
Baylor 20 Oklahoma State 16
Kansas State 27 Missouri 20
Utah 31 Brigham Young 24
North Carolina 54 Duke 7
Northwestern 45 Illinois 27
Michigan 27 Ohio State 24
Purdue 34 Indiana 23
San Diego State 34 Wyoming 24
Clemson 30 South Carolina 17
Colorado State 27 UNLV 21
Tennessee 30 Vanderbilt 17
Virginia 20 Virginia Tech 17
Georgia 34 Kentucky 6
Penn State 45 Michigan State 34
Home team is in bold.
His underdogs to win outright:
Virginia
Utah
Kansas State
Michigan
Stanford
Ball State
posted by phantom
Nov. 18 2005 2:15pm -
0 likes
HARMON FORECAST
Game of the Week
*Michigan 24, Ohio State 23
This will be the 102nd meeding as Michigan has a 57-38-6 edge. The home team has won the last three meetings, so we give the Wolverines the edge by one point.
Week of Nov. 18
Major Colleges - Div. I-A
*Arkansas 24 Mississippi State 12
Arkansas State 20 *Army 17
*Akron 27 Ohio 24
*Auburn 20 Alabama 17
*Ball State 28 Central Michigan 27
*Boise State 41 Idaho 14
*Brigham Young 28 Utah 24
California 33 *Stanford 24
Central Florida 27 *Rice 7
Clemson 24 *South Carolina 23
Colorado State 31 *UNLV 22
Eastern Michigan 34 *Buffalo 7
*Florida International 24 Western Kentucky 14
*Georgia 24 Kentucky 7
*Kansas State 27 Missouri 25
*Louisiana-Monroe 27 La.-Lafayette 21
LSU 21 *Mississippi 6
*Marshall 26 East Carolina 21
*Maryland 24 Boston College 23
*Miami (Fla.) 28 Georgia Tech 16
*Miami (Ohio) 30 Bowling Green 24
*Michigan 24 Ohio State 23
Minnesota 30 *Iowa 23
*Navy 26 Temple 6
Nevada 31 *Utah State 17
*New Mexico 27 Air Force 20
*North Carolina 23 Duke 16
*North Carolina State 31 Middle Tennessee 21
Northwestern 35 *Illinois 14
*Notre Dame 38 Syracuse 10
Oklahoma State 34 *Baylor 24
*Oregon 34 Oregon State 31
Penn State 29 *Michigan State 27
Purdue 28 *Indiana 14
*San Diego State 23 Wyoming 20
*San Jose State 28 New Mexico State 24
*South Florida 31 Cincinnati 20
*Southern California 37 Fresno State 24
*Southern Mississippi 24 Memphis 23
*Tennessee 17 Vanderbilt 10
*Texas-El Paso 24 UAB 17
*Texas Tech 31 Oklahoma 24
*Toledo 31 Northern Illinois 23
Tulsa 31 *Tulane 17
Virginia Tech 23 *Virginia 14
Washington State 34 *Washington 24
* - Denotes home team
posted by phantom
Nov. 18 2005 2:16pm -
0 likes
RED SHEET ONLINE
RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY
NOVEMBER 19, 2005 VOLUME 37, NUMBER 12
Tulsa 45 - TULANE 14 - (2:00 EST) -- Line opened at Tulsa minus 14, and is still minus 14. If ever a team was emotionally & physically drained, the Greenies of Tulane are that team. Robbed of their home, thanks to Katrina, they've seen their early 2-1 start (wins vs an SMU team which was in off a 66-8 pounding the previous week, & in a non-lined affair with SE La). turn to mush. They've been mauled, especially overland (allowed 801 RYs last 2 games), & last week, became Rice's first victim of the year. On a 6-game losing streak, both SU & ATS, they don't figure to get healthy vs the premier visiting team in the nation (5-0 vs the pts, by an average of 23.9 ppg!). The 'Canes are only a couple of plays from being on an 8-game run, following their brutal opening sked. Reasonable spot is worth noting.
RATING: TULSA 89
BOISE STATE 58 - Idaho 14 - (3:00) -- Line opened at Boise minus 29½, and is now minus 31. Yes, we are aware of the heavy baggage here, but simply no other way to go. The Broncos are in off their worst league showing since 1998, managing not a single pt in the final 59:13 in a 27-7 loss in their WAC showdown at Fresno. Following their previous loss (Sept 10th at OregonSt), they were not to be fooled with, & proceeded to trounce a quality Bowling Green squad, 48-20, leading 48-6 in the 4th. In their last 2 HGs, the Broncos rolled by similar 49-14 & 56-6 scores, covering by 15 & 17s pts. Are still in line for a decent bowl, so the incentive is there. They catch the Vandals off a heartbreaking loss to LaTech, but note Idaho with a 62-14 loss in its last RG vs a decent foe (Reno). This one is over early.
RATING: BOISE STATE 89
SOUTH FLORIDA 38 - Cincinnati 10 - (12:00) -- Line opened at SouthFlorida minus 17, and is now minus 19. Largest line move on the board (thru Tuesday) here, but still have to call the Bulls' number. They've been one of the top surprises of the season. In Hall, they own one of the true overland gems in the nation, & rank 14th in rushing "O". And try 24th in land in total "D", despite facing the likes of PennSt, Louisville, & Miami-Fla. Of course, their shocking 45-14 upset of the Cards (51-pt cover) had the nation taking notice. By the way, that was their last home game. As noted on Pointwise, they control their BigEast destiny. If they run the table, they will land a prestigious BCS Bowl. The 'Bearcats are yet to impress, away from home, & in off a 38-0 thumping at WestVirginia. More of the same.
RATING: SOUTH FLORIDA 88
TENNESSEE 27 - Vanderbilt 25 - (12:30) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 13, and is now minus 11½. As our readers are well aware, the Vols are one of the worst home propositions in the nation. Check it out: now on an 0-9 ATS run in Knoxville, while the visitor in Tennessee games is on a 30-12 spread streak. As if that weren't reason enough to string along with the Commo-dores here, the fact that the Vols are among the worst rushing teams in the land (98th), with a still fluid QB situation, only cements it. In off squeaking by a Memphis team which was without its splendid RB, Williams. Vandy has seen its hopeful season, turn to dust, but 'Dores took Florida into OT just 2 weeks back, & stay in this all the way.
RATING: VANDERBILT 88
NOTRE DAME 52 - Syracuse 3 - (2:20) -- Line opened at NotreDame minus 36, and is now minus 34½. We originally had this one slotted as our top Red Sheet choice, despite the 5-TD spread, but there is a distinct chance that the midwest may be hit with snow this weekend, thus a drop to #5. The Irish just continue to put points on the board, averaging >41 pts in 8 of their 9 starts, including 31 vs the top team in the land, USC. Quinn has been a superb leader, with 27 TD passes, & just 5 interceptions. The 'Cuse is the exact opposite. Can't move the ball (116th in total offense), behind its invisible offensive line. And to think that just 2 yrs ago, the Orange beat the Irish, 38-12. Maybe a bit of revenge? Romper Room.
RATING: NOTRE DAME 88
DENVER 30 - New York Jets 10 - (4:15) -- Line opened at Denver minus 12½, and is now minus 13. It's all over for the Jets. They've made a valiant effort, in trying to replace Pennington, along with various other offensive performers. Now down to Bollinger at QB, who came from a pair of TD throws, in a decent home showing vs the Chargers, to no less than 4 interceptions the following week, at Carolina. That's enough for us, as NY is suddenly a road midget, with losses by double digits in all 5 away games, and by an average of 16 pts. Enter the Broncos - the epitome of consistency since their opening bomb at Miami. Just a 24-23 loss at the Giants from 8-0 SU run. Check a 1,319-536 RY edge in their last 7 contests, along with Plummer without a pick in his last 193 passes. Opposite directions.
RATING: DENVER 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): BYU, CentFlorida, Northwestern, Iowa -- NFL: San Diego, Atlanta, Green Bay
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): SoFlorida (-17 to -19); Vanderbilt (+13 to +11½); Eastern Michigan (-4½ to -6); Oklahoma (+8½ to +7); Syracuse (+36 to +34½); OklahomaSt (+4 to +2½); BoiseSt (-29½ to -31); BYU (-10 to -11½); Clemson (Pick to -1½); SanDiegoSt (-5½ to -7); Army (-6 to -7½) - NFL: Indianapolis (-4½ to -5½). -- TIME CHANGE: Just one change from early edition: BC/Maryland: Now 1:00.
posted by phantom
Nov. 18 2005 2:17pm -
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KEVIN O’NEILL’S
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 6 Issue 13 November 17-21, 2005 •
Rivalry Landscape Has Changed in College Football and
Why Can’t Coaches Let Them Score?
Rivalry Time: There is still some value to be gained from my first book published in 1996, but times have changed quite a bit as well. One thing that has changed is the landscape of college football rivalries. A lot of the underdog angles in rivalry games don’t work nearly as well any more. Treat them as a factor not the factor. If you lack any of my books steep discounts are available for Max readers. Call 1-770-649-1078 for details.
Coaches Can’t Let Them Score: Georgia looked to have their game with Auburn all but won, leading 30-28 with Auburn facing a 4th and 10 in their own territory near the 2 minute mark. The resulting long completion and fumble retained by the offense results in the Tigers having it 1st and goal from the 3. If I’m Mark Richt and I let Auburn score immediately. Allowing Auburn to score a touchdown on first down would result in the Bulldogs trailing either 34-30 or 36-30 (Auburn would have gone for 2) and receiving the kickoff with about 1:40 left. Instead Richt let Auburn run the clock down and kick a 20-yard field goal for the win. A 20-yard field goal is a 90%+ shot, even though the Auburn kicker missed 5 of 6 at LSU. He wasn’t about to miss the equivalent of an extra point. So stopping them is a 90% chance of losing. What is the likelihood of accepting a kickoff and scoring a TD in 1:40? I’m not sure, but it is a heck of a lot better than 10%. I know that allowing them to score would have been counterintuitive, but it is the right play often enough that coaches should be prepared to make the decision.
Apologies to you loyal readers for writing about this so frequently, but refusing to use a strategy that can help you win a game is truly baffling
Our Week: 3-1-1 on the late phones in college, 1-1 on Sunday for an overall 4-2-1 weekend on the phones. The Max went 4-3 in the colleges and 1-3 on Sunday. Those records include a 0-2 mark by Dave Fobare, who still has a solid winning record despite a tough couple of weeks. The Max has Dallas pending on Monday night (written up at +3, it eventually required a significant (-125 or so) lay to get +3, which was one of the reasons we stayed off it on the late phones. The Midweek Play actually won a game with the Texans and will stay in the NFL this week. Favorites continue to do well, going 8-5 on Sunday in the NFL.
Copyright 2005. All Rights Reserved.
Published by Strategic Sports Publishing
8610 Roswell Road. Suite 900-300. Atlanta, Georgia 30350
Phone (770.649.1078) Fax (770.234.5051) Email (kevino@bellsouth.net)
SELECTIONS: November 17-21, 2005
College Football
Saturday, November 19, 2005 One Dimensional Matchup @Iowa (-4½) over Minnesota
Both of these teams are seen as one-dimensional offensively but are improving their weakness. Iowa passes the ball much more impressively than they run it but Albert Young is running big late in the season. Minnesota can run all over you but Brian Cupito is having a decent year and the power of the Gophers running game opens up the pass to the tune of over 200 yards per game on around 8 yards per pass attempt. Minnesota has a deep and strong running game and third stringer Amir Pinnix went for over 200 yards at home in a big win against Michigan State and Laurence Maroney, one of the nation’s best backs, will return from injury for this one on Saturday. But well-coached Iowa is always developing players well over the course of the season and their defense has developed into a real strength late in the year. They held Wisconsin’s spectacular Brian Calhoun to 18 yards rushing and no TD’s on Saturday. Iowa’s defensive line was a source of concern at the start of the season but is developing into a real strength. Redshirt freshman DE Mitch King was named Big 10 Defensive Player of the Week after a huge performance against Wisconsin and his fellow end Kenny Iwebema is developing into a pass rushing monster. This strong defense helped the Hawkeyes bounce back at Wisconsin after crushing defeats at home against Michigan and at Northwestern.
Iowa is 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 home games. In addition to their outrageous success at home, Ferentz has gotten his team geeked up for Senior Day. In their home finales under Ferentz the Hawkeyes have covered by 20, 13, 24, 6, 22, and 16, a 6-0 pointspread mark that combines to cover by 101 points. Conversely, Minnesota under Mason has struggled in their road finale, failing to cover each of their last 6. While 3 of those games were at Iowa and therefore overlap with the Ferentz stats, Minnesota lost at Wisconsin in the alternating years, getting blown out each time and failing to cover each by double digits. They have lost each of their last five last road games by 18 or more. Ferentz has proven time and time again that he has Mason’s number, especially at this site. Lay the short number, as well-prepared Iowa is the side in this one. Iowa by 11.
Wildcat Strike
Kentucky (+27½) over @Georgia
After losing to South Carolina and being 0-5 against 1-A opposition, Kentucky was given up for dead and Rich Brooks was considered to be as good as fired. Then a funny thing happened. The Wildcats started playing with some fire. They lost to Mississippi 13-7 as a 10-point dog and then beat Mississippi State by an identical 13-7 score as a 1-point favorite. The Wildcats then put up 450 yards of offense against Auburn and were right in that ballgame before the breaks went against them late in a 49-27 loss. Kentucky then exploded to a 41-10 lead early in the third quarter before the defense softened up against hurry up Vandy and the Commodores cut the final score to 48-43. But it was still an impressive win for UK. Their passing game is impressive right now and emerging RB Rafael Little has been outstanding. Now granted, UK is riddled with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and gave up over 500 yards in each of those games. And we realize that they caught both Auburn (looking ahead to Georgia) and Vandy (off OT loss at Florida) in flat spots. But Kentucky still is capable of putting some points on the board against a Georgia team that has been susceptible to the big play and gave up over 500 yards against Auburn and that is meaningful with a spread this high.
Georgia isn’t in the greatest spot in the world themselves. The Bulldogs are off of consecutive losses and the Auburn loss was a real crusher, as all they had to do was stop the Tigers in a 4th and 10 situation and they’d have the SEC East clinched. But UGA wasn’t that down after the game, as with South Carolina’s win over Florida earlier in the day they considered themselves to have the division wrapped up anyhow, as they know they’ll win this game. But winning the game is fine. We just need Kentucky to hang around inside this big number and we’re confident the Wildcats can do that. Since their opening week rampage against Boise State UGA has failed to cover four consecutive home games and they haven’t won a home conference game by more than a field goal. Overall they haven’t won a conference game by more than 17 points. UGA the superior team and though this is an important game for them they may be deflated off the successive losses to Florida and Auburn while they look forward to in state rival Georgia Tech (lots of woofing and yapping in that one each year). Kentucky is the side today. Georgia by only 20.
UnTennable
Vanderbilt (+11) @Tennessee
Tennessee makes you just want to throw up. All those top recruits in a program with all that money and all those facilities and they hardly do anything with it. They very easily could have lost to Memphis on Saturday. Memphis superstar RB DeAngelo Williams, who may be more important to his team than any single player in college football, didn’t even play due to injury while their QB is Maurice Avery, who was a WR until about three games ago. The problems at Tennessee run a lot deeper than bad wide receivers and poor quarterback decisions. When they won the national championship they began to recruit nationally. Instead of having players from Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Georgia, they have kids from California, Texas, New Jersey, Ohio, Hawaii, Wisconsin, etc. It can be tough to get a national recruiting class to gel. They are often thinking more about their NFL career rather than playing for the dear old State U. The lack of chemistry has the Volunteers 4-5 straight up and scrambling for a Music City Bowl berth. UT is 1-7-1 against the spread and has failed to cover each of the past three games by double digits.
Vandy had their doors blown off early by Kentucky before they came back to make the final score respectable. They were crashing hard after the devastating double OT loss in Gainesville the week before. But the Commodores will have no trouble getting up for this one. In the Volunteer State Vandy isn’t even considered the JV to Tennessee’s varsity, they’re more like the freshman team. They’ll be supremely motivated. While Vandy’s defense is wearing down the offense remains lively.
Tennessee is a pretty easy team to defend, as they can’t throw the ball effectively and their running game is overrated as well. QB Jay Cutler has kept the Commodores in some games against superior opposition and while Tennessee has superior talent it may be a stretch to call them a superior team. Look for the Commodores to stay in this one. Tennessee by only 4.
Rivalry Dog
@Michigan (+3) over Ohio State
Looking to buck an early line move on Ohio State. Understand the move, as Ohio State has the superior defense, but in a rivalry of this magnitude and the amount of talent on the field for both teams we’ll look to take the points with a good home dog. Michigan has shown a lot of intestinal fortitude as the season has progressed. After a 3-3 start the Wolverines have meaningful wins over Penn State (Nittany Lions only loss) and at Iowa (first loss for
3
Iowa at home in over three years, as well as a meaningful road win at Northwestern. Michigan has shown they have quality athletes, and while they are not as good defensively as Ohio State, they have firmed up considerably in recent weeks. Both teams are off of easy home wins, Michigan 41-14 over Indiana (41-7 at the half) and Ohio State 48-7 over Northwestern.
Not a big Lloyd Carr fan but he is good as a dog and has this one in proper perspective. When asked after the Indiana game when he started to think about Ohio State Carr said, “I don’t think you ever stop thinking about them.â€Â
posted by phantom
Nov. 18 2005 2:17pm -
0 likes
more powersweep
4* colo st
3* purdue
3* san diego st
2* alabama
2* washington
2* oklahoma
....
4* seattle
3* carolina
2* cincinatti
2* san deigo
....
dog of week virginia
....
pro stat play washington
....
pro angle play
3 san diego
3 ny giants
....
totals
3* chic under
3* rams over
3* bills over
2* siants over
2* miami under
....
pro system selection
cincinatti
san diego
posted by phantom
Nov. 18 2005 2:18pm