services for saturday cfb
Joe Gavazzi
COLLEGE PENTHOUSE PICKS
5% Ohio State (-18.5) vs. Northwestern
4% California (+19) vs. USC
4% Arizona State (+4) vs. UCLA
3% Navy (+23.5) vs. Notre Dame
3% Alabama (+3) vs. LSU
posted by phantom
41 replies
-
0 likes
Gavazzi
COLLEGE TOTALS
5% Under 46 Maryland / Northwestern
4% Under 56.5 Kansas / Texas
4% Under 41.5 Arkansas / Mississippi
_________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:38am -
0 likes
WINNING SYSTEMS
FULL PLAYS:
Florida-4 @ S.Carolina
Play: S.Carolina +4.5 (Bodog, or +4 elsewhere)
First of all, S.Carolina is the #1 redzone efficiency edge play this week.
These plays have been money in both NFL and NCAAF in the past, especially
this year. However, just as any other play, a strong redzone play can lose
on any given day. So, don't bet your house on it. It is a single unit play,
just like any other single unit play. S.Carolina has finally started playing
well for their new coach (we all know his name and who he coached before, so
no need to talk about that). They won four straight games and allowed 16 pts
or less three times in the process. One can argue that Florida was
struggling against Vanderbilt last week, because of the look-ahead sindrom,
but their recent woes don't look like a look-ahead factor to me. You can
struggle in one game, looking ahead to your next opponent, but not for a
month. Other than in their game vs MSST, the Gators were not convincing at
all since the second half of their road game vs Kentucky. They were lost in
the second half vs Kentucky, got killed at 'Bama, barely edged Shockly-less
Georgia, and finally needed OT to beat Vandy. Perfect spot for hungry and
confident Gamecocks to finally beat Florida. This team should be able to
keep it close. Systems supporting S.Carolina:
Play on home dogs off 2W, allowing 21 or less in both: 21-9 ATS L10Y.
Play against @Favs of H fav win in OT: 21-9 ATS L15Y.
Same system is 15-0 ATS if favored by 3 or more in L20Y.
Oregon -4.5 @ Washington State
Play: Washington State +4.5
Despite being 3-6 on the season, Washington State is stil better in the
redzone than the 8-1 Oregon. Oregon is actually one of the worst redzone
teams in the PAC10. And the things only got worst for Oregon when they lost
their starting QB Clemens due to an ankle injury. His replacements Dixon and
Leaf have combined for 2 TD and 4 INT so far this season, compared to
Clemens' 17 TD and 4 INT. And if Oregon tries to win this game on the
ground, it could get even uglier. Washington State has been a much better
team on the ground, both offensively and defensively this season, than
Oregon. They average 5.4 ypr on offense vs Oregon's 3.8. On defense, they
average 3.8ypr (2.9 at home) vs Oregon's 4.1.Four of their last 5 losses
have been by 4 pts or less and the only team that was able to beat them by
more than 4 was the #1 USC. These guys are not quitters and they for sure
will not quit at home, as they try to revenge a 3pts home loss to the Ducks.
Washington State keeps it close and maybe wins SU. Systems supporting
Washington State:
Play on 7-dogs reveng. upset loss in which they were favored by 7 or less
points: 32-9 ATS L16Y.
Play against @Favs of H fav win in OT: 21-9 ATS L15Y.
Same system is 15-0 ATS if favored by 3 or more in L20Y.
LEANS/SMALL PLAYS:
FRESNO STATE -7 (WIN)
Iowa +2.5 @ Wisconsin
Small Play/Lean: Wisconsin -2.5
As much as Wisconsin is struggling lately, as evidenced by the fact that
they were outgained in last 5 and outrushed in last 7 games, I stil have to
make this play based mostly on two important stats: Number one, Wisconsin is
a top 5 redzone efficiency edge play in college football this week, and
number 2,Wisconsin is a good home team and is hosting Iowa which is a bad
road team this year, period. I know Iowa owned Wisconsin in last few years,
but I don't think they will be ready to bounce back after that horrible loss
at Northwestern last week, in which they had a HUGE lead early on, but stil
lost that game. As for Wisconsin's clash with PSU last week, I had an
impression that even Wisconsin players didn't believe in a win in that game.
I think they knew well before the kickoff that they had no chance against
PSU. However, this week, they have a triple revenge on their minds, and they
are playing at home as well. Small play on Wisconsin -2.5. Here are two
solid systems supporting Wisky this week:
Play on 3-HF in at least a double revenge after a 21+L: 22-6 ATS L9Y.
Play against @ teams not off bye in conf.gms off @FL: 16-6 ATS L11Y.
Ball State +6 @ E.Michigan
Small Play/Lean: Ball State +6
All of a sudden, Ball State is not looking all that bad. Once they got to
their conference part of the schedule, they started winning and surprising
quite a few people. Since that crushing 60 pts loss to Auburn, they went 3-3
SU and 5-1 ATS, including two straight dog wins in last two games. Now they
are looking to revenge two straight losses against EMU, and EMU, by the way,
is on a 4 game losing streak. Perfect timing for Ball State to revenge two
taugh losses against Eastern Michigan. Ball State is one of the best redzone
teams in the MAC (believe it or not) and EMU is one of the worst. I won't be
shocked if Ball State pulls their third uspet in a row here.Here is one very
solid system supporting Ball State in the dog role:
Play on 7-dogs revenging upset loss of 7pts or less: 31-9 ATS L7Y
Arizona State +3.5 @ UCLA
Small Play/Lean: Arizona State +3.5
UCLA is not undefeated any more. And teams that suffer their first loss this
late in the season, usually struggle to get back on track in their next
game. And while UCLA has to find a way to get back on track now, Arizona
State found that way in two straight wins following their disappointing
losses to USC etc. UCLA will get their share of points in this one, but so
will ASU. The difference here might be the redzone efficiency and the
defense. ASU seems to be more capable of making a key stop on defense than
UCLA. ASU is also a top 5 redzone efficiency edge play this week. Strong
system supporting ASU:
Play on @dogs off @dog win, opp. of @fav loss: 38-14 ATS L15Y.
Same system if favored by 7-: 33-9 ATS and 28-14 SU.
Same system if favored by 4-: 26-4 ATS, 22-8 SU, 12-0 ATS Last 12.
Northwestern +19 @ Ohio State
Small Play/Lean: Northwestern +19
This line keeps going up, and I understand why. Northwestern has no defense
and OHST defense is one of the best in NCAA this year. Maybe even one of the
best in recent years. However, I stil believe in NW, and their offense,
enough to take all those points, against a team (OHST) that is not known as
a offensive powerhouse. I know OHST offense looked good recently, but the
scoring is not their trade mark and they can start struggling again on any
given Saturday. Northwestern is stil not getting any respect. In games
played vs common opponents, NW has a better redzone efficiency than OHST.
They are full of confidence, especially after that come-from-behind win over
Iowa last week. If their defense was any better, they would not be getting
this many points. System supporting Northwestern:
Play against road favs revenging a road upset loss in which they were
favored by 7 or more, and opponent is off a dog win: 18-3 ATS L20Y.
Same system is 13-0 ATS if opp won by 3- in its previous game.
S.Florida -8 @ Syracuse
Small Play/Lean: Syracuse +8 (FREE LEAN)
Last home game of the season for Syracuse, last winnable game of the season
as well, and obviously last chance to end that ugly losing streak. And if
they were not able to fix some of the problems during their bye week, they
never will. Due to one posponed game on their schedule, S.Florida is playing
their 4th straight road game and their first game on turf this season. Last
week's win at Rutgers was a good one, but Rutgers was playing that game with
two seriously banged up quarterbacks. And despite that, Rutgers almost
erased a 21 pts early deficit, as they scored 30+ on SFL and won three
quarters of that game. SFL is just not a kind of a team that should be
laying this many points on the road, against a team that has a 23-6 ATS home
dog record in last 20+ years and a 11-3 SU record in last home games in last
14 seasons. Two solid systems supporting Syracuse:
Play against teams play 4th straight @game, opp off HL: 21-9 ATS L14Y
Play against @ teams off 14+W as @dog, not off bye: 21-7 ATS L12Y.
System Suggestions (NO PLAY):
Play against winless favs with the record 0-6 or worst, not off bye, and
opp. on 2+ losing streak: 27-5 ATS L15Y (System Supports Tulane)
Play on home dogs of 3 pts or less if unbeaten on the season, record 3-0 or
better: 19-5 SU and 20-4 ATS L20Y (System Supports Alabama)
Play on dogs of 2+wins and last win was at least a 21 pts home dog win: 24-8
ATS L11Y, 10-0 ATS as 14+ dogs (System Supports Kansas)
Play on 5-3 teams as 14+ dogs: 21-7 ATS L10Y, 10-1 ATS if scoring 30+ pts in
previous game (System Supports Navy)
Play against 3- fav in weeks 1-10, if they won their previous HTH meeting vs
the opponent as dogs: 34-6 ATS L8Y (System Supports Troy)
Play against teams comming off of a 21+SU/ATS win, in which they had a long
rest (bye), in gms 9-12: 14-2 ATS L10Y (System Supports NMX)
Good luck all,
WS
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:38am -
0 likes
Greg Roberts is 8-1 in last 3 weeks and 6-0 last 2 weeks on his picks on WJOX radio.
Picks
Texas Tech -23
Pitt -12
Iowa St +2
Opinions
Clemson + 1 1/2
Cal + 18 1/2
So. Carolina + 3 1/2
Alabamaq + 3
Auburn + 3
Good luck
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:39am -
0 likes
mike lee group
10% arizona
8% arizona st
6% ohio state..cali..auburn..west mich
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:39am -
0 likes
Nellys
Slam - UAB
2* NAVY
2* GTECH
3* WYOMING
4* IOWA ST
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:40am -
0 likes
marc lawrence:
4 STAR BEST BET on Michigan St.(+5.5) over Minnesota by 10
ASHTON SPORTS
CFB: 2* HAWAII
Let’s travel West to paradise shall we? Tonight June Jones and his Warriors (I still prefer to call them the ‘Bows) will take on their WAC rivals the Utah State Aggies. Both teams are finishing up for pride this season as Hawaii is 3-6 SU (5-4 ATS) and Brent Guy’s Ags are a woeful 2-6 SU while making their backers happy covering 5 of 8.
Utah St. is a winless 0-4 SU on the road but they’ve managed to cover 3 of the 4 games. However, in all 3 of the covers they were receiving chunks of points (24½ @ Utah, 35 @ Fresno St. and 34 @ Bama). This team played their hearts out last week at home against LA Tech but made too many mistakes.
Utah St. gained 478 yards to the Dogs 276 but committed 4 TO which the Techies turned into 17 points and took control on a botched fake punt in the 3rd quarter. Now the Aggies have to handle a gut-wrenching loss on their home field and travel into the land of paradise for a match-up with a ticked off Hawaii squad.
The Warriors have lost 2 straight games but the only time this season they laid out nearly this many points was here against NMST a few weeks back. They throttled those Aggies by a score of 49-28 laying 18 points. Get the entire Premium Schedule (4-1 last week, 5 more for Saturday
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:40am -
0 likes
Larry Ness Arizona State
UCLA has made a habit of falling behind and then staging dramatic comebacks this year. That is, until last week. After coming back from double-digit 4th-quarter deficits four times in October, the Bruins fell behind Arizona last week early and NEVER was heard from again! Arizona ended UCLA's hopes of entering its season-ending showdown with USC undefeated, by blasting the Bruins, 52-14. With the team's bubble burst, look for them to struggle here vs Arizona St. Neither team has much of a defense but BOTH have outstanding offenses. Expect a shootout between Drew Olson (66.4 % 25 TDs just 3 INTs) and redshirt freshman Rudy carpenter of ASU. Carpanter (73.9% 10 TDs / 2 INTs) has filled in nicely for Sam Keller and the ASU offense, ranked third nationally averaging 518.4 YPG, hasn't missed a beat. It's UCLA's home finale but the Bruins have lost their last three and failed to cover FOUR of their last five in this spot. ASU is more of a passing team but against UCLA, who is allowing 223.8 YPG, 5.1 YPC and 22 rushing TDs), Carpenter may get some good use out of his running game. I expect ASU to be the more focused team, as the overachieving Bruins, just 12-13 the last two years, lose again!. Take the points with ASU.
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:41am -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence Georgia Tech
Yellow Jackets play with double revenge owning the better defense (by 52 yards). Look for Virginia to dip to 0-6 ATS in games after allowing six or less points. Tech in the upset.
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:41am -
0 likes
Chuck Luck
IOWA +3.5 IF YOU CAN FIND +3 NOW.EITHER WAY BUY THE HALF TO 3 OR 3.5
G. TECH +4
S.D. ST +8
FL - 3
I ALSO LIKE SMALL PLAYS ON N. MEX AND KY AND I WOULD BE ALL OVER MEMPHIS IF THEY HAD ANY QB PLAYING BUT TENN MAY BEAT THEM 21-0.
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:42am -
0 likes
Larry Ness-15* CFB WINNER
Oregon State
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:42am -
0 likes
Larry Ness 20* SEC Game of the Year
LSU
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:42am -
0 likes
Scott Spreitzer Game of the Year
Iowa State
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:42am -
0 likes
Stardust Invitational Nov 12-14
Al McMordie (Big Al):
California +18 1/2
Wake Forrest +17
Buffalo Bills -2 1/2
Phil Eagles -3
Min Vikings +9 1/2
Balt Ravens +6 1/2
BEST BET Iowa St. +2 1/2
Marc Lawrence:
California +18 1/2
Iowa State +2 1/2
Arkansas +1
Arizona St. +3 1/2
Auburn +3
GB Packers +9 1/2
BEST BET Alabama +3
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:43am -
0 likes
kuelkat 20*
Northwestern +20
Iowa State +3
Maryland +3
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:44am -
0 likes
Handicapping Trends
Maryland
Maryland is 4-1-0 ATS in its last 5 lined games
Maryland is 8-2-0 ATS in its last 10 away lined games
Maryland is 5-0-0 ATS in its last 5 lined games against North Carolina
Maryland is 4-2-0 SU in its last 6 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
North Carolina
North Carolina is 5-1-0 ATS in its last 6 lined games
North Carolina is 6-2-0 ATS in its last 8 home lined games
North Carolina is 5-0-0 SU in its last 5 games after scoring 10 to 20 points
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Texas A and M
Texas A&M is 1-5-0 ATS in its last 6 lined games
Texas A&M is 6-3-0 ATS in its last 9 lined games against Oklahoma
Texas A&M is 1-4-0 SU in its last 5 games after scoring 10 to 20 points
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 4-10-0 ATS in its last 14 lined games
Oklahoma is 2-4-0 ATS in its last 6 home lined games
Oklahoma is 3-6-0 ATS in its last 9 lined games against Texas A&M
Oklahoma is 14-2-0 SU in its last 16 games after scoring 31 to 40 points
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northwestern
Northwestern is 5-1-0 ATS in its last 6 lined games
Northwestern is 3-6-0 ATS in its last 9 away lined games
Northwestern is 7-19-0 SU in its last 26 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Ohio St.
Ohio St. is 5-1-0 ATS in its last 6 lined games
Ohio St. is 7-2-0 ATS in its last 9 home lined games
Ohio St. is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 lined games against Northwestern
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michigan St.
Michigan St. is 1-4-0 ATS in its last 5 lined games
Michigan St. is 4-9-0 ATS in its last 13 away lined games
Michigan St. is 2-5-0 ATS in its last 7 lined games against Minnesota
Michigan St. is 4-9-0 SU in its last 13 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Minnesota
Minnesota is 7-3-0 ATS in its last 10 lined games
Minnesota is 5-2-0 ATS in its last 7 lined games against Michigan St.
Minnesota is 11-3-0 SU in its last 14 games after scoring more than 40 points
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Indiana
Indiana is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 away lined games
Indiana is 2-8-0 SU in its last 10 games after scoring 21 to 30 points
Michigan
Michigan is 1-4-0 ATS in its last 5 home lined games
Michigan is 4-2-0 SU in its last 6 games after scoring 31 to 40 points
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Illinois
Illinois is 1-5-0 ATS in its last 6 lined games
Illinois is 2-10-0 ATS in its last 12 away lined games
Illinois is 1-4-0 SU in its last 5 games after scoring less than 10 points
Purdue
Purdue is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 lined games
Purdue is 1-5-0 ATS in its last 6 home lined games
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida St.
Florida St. is 1-4-0 ATS in its last 5 lined games
Florida St. is 4-1-0 ATS in its last 5 lined games against Clemson
Florida St. is 15-2-0 SU in its last 17 games after scoring 10 to 20 points
Clemson
Clemson is 7-3-0 ATS in its last 10 lined games
Clemson is 5-2-0 ATS in its last 7 home lined games
Clemson is 1-4-0 ATS in its last 5 lined games against Florida St.
Clemson is 6-3-0 SU in its last 9 games after scoring more than 40 points
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Connecticut is 7-3-0 ATS in its last 10 lined games
Connecticut is 3-6-0 ATS in its last 9 away lined games
Connecticut is 5-1-0 SU in its last 6 games after scoring 10 to 20 points
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-2-0 ATS in its last 6 lined games
Pittsburgh is 6-1-0 ATS in its last 7 home lined games
Pittsburgh is 9-1-0 SU in its last 10 games after scoring 10 to 20 points
_________________
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:46am -
0 likes
Computer Group
Texas A&M Under
Iowa Under
North Texas Game
mike neri
4* ohio state
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ppp
5* ohio state..under mary
4* cali..ariz st..
3* bama..navy
there goy will be released later..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
mike lee
10% arizona
8% arizona st
6% ohio state..cali..auburn..west mich
Larry Ness-15* CFB WINNER
Oregon State
Scott Spreitzer Game of the Year
Iowa State
Larry Ness 20* SEC Game of the Year
LSU
Larry Ness
Legend Play- Iowa State
Scott Sprietzer 25* Conference Crusher
Ohio State
Scott Spreitzer 15* Saturday Night KO BailOut
Hawaii
Doc's Enterprises Saturday Record
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I belong to a group that tracks the performance of some of these handicappers on Saturdays and Sundays only. We use the Don Best closing Las Vegas Line to grade the cappers. Here's what we have on Doc from available consensus sources. We try very hard to confirm these plays from more than one source. Though we can't certify the accuracy of the consensus information, we stand by our record keeping. Again, this is his Saturday record only. If you take a moment to study his record in the Big 10 you can see why, frankly, I'm not too excited about his GOY tomorrow.
And, in all fairness to Doc, his Big 10 Conference record last year was very impressive. Just a bad year, I guess.
Big 10 Conference Games
Side Selections: 7* 0-1; 6* 0-2; 5* 2-2; 4* 4-8
Totals Plays: 5* 0-2; 4* 1-0
Outside the Big 10
Side Selections: 5* 4-3; 4* 20-18
Totals Plays: None received
Big 10 Inter-conference games:
Side Selections: 5* 1-1; 4* 2-1
Totals Plays: None received
A service performing very well this year on Saturday is Total Edge. Current record on Saturday is 20-7 . We believe that his picks for Saturday are:
Baylor/ UNDER, Clemson/UNDER, Michigan/UNDER
Bankersports
5 units "Big Dog" = Northwestern
JD West
3*Hawaii
1* Steam Game-Florida State
L&M Las Vegas
8*Ohio State
4*Idaho
2*Michigan
2*E Carolina
2*Oregon State
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 2:59am -
0 likes
Phantom,
Do you happen to have Phil Steele's plays from his Power Sweeps Newsletter? Thanks.
posted by bingcrosby
Nov. 12 2005 8:48am -
0 likes
Never mind,
I found it. It would have helped if I looked in the right area!
Thanks for posting it.
posted by bingcrosby
Nov. 12 2005 8:51am -
0 likes
The Gold Sheet Late Telephone Service
Top Rated Play
(1.5*) Central Florida Golden Knights
Regular Plays
(1*) Wisconsin Badgers
(1*) East Carolina Pirates
(1*) Alabama Crimson Tide
(1*) California Golden Bears
(1*) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:39am -
0 likes
Northcoast Small College
Top Rated Plays
(4*) Buffalo Bulls
(4*) Arkansas State Indians
Regular Plays
(3*) UL Lafayette Rajun Cajuns
(3*) North Texas Mean Green
Northcoast Sports
Top Rated Plays
(4* NCAA Game of the Week) Arizona State Sun Devils
(4*) Idaho Vandals
(4*) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Regular Plays
(3*) Washington State Cougars
(3*) Utah Utes
Northcoast Totals
Top Rated Play
(4.5*) Kentucky/Vanderbilt Over
Regular Plays
(3.5*) UAB/Central Florida Over
(3.5*) Michigan State/Minnesota Over
(3*) LSU/Alabama Under
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:40am -
0 likes
ATS Lock Club (confirmed):
8 units iowa state
8 units arkansas state
7 units idaho
6 units iowa
6 units auburn
5 units oklahoma state
2 unit parlay iowa state and arkansas state
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:40am -
0 likes
Did You Know?
Florida St. most recently is 7-3 ATS when playing within conference
Clemson most recently is 5-5 ATS when playing within conference
Indiana most recently is 2-7 ATS after a loss
Michigan most recently is 6-4 ATS after a win
Northwestern most recently is 7-3 ATS when playing on grass
Buckeyes allow the third least rushing yards in the league at 76.6 per game.
Florida most recently is 7-3 ATS When they are favored on the road
South Carolina most recently is 1-9 ATS when they are a dog at home
Navy has the second best run offense in the league at 282.6 yards per game
Notre Dame most recently is 5-5 ATS when playing on grass
Texas Tech leads the league in passing with 433.3 yards per game.
Cowboys have the worst run defense in the league at 228.8 per game
Iowa most recently is 8-2 ATS when playing in November
Wisconsin most recently is 3-7 ATS when playing in November
Southern Cal is the highest scoring team in the league at 49.9 points per game.
California most recently is 3-1 ATS before playing Stanford
Jayhawks have the best run defense in the league allowing 64.1 per game
Texas is third in the league in rushing at 278.6 yards per game
Hurricanes have the best pass defense in the league allowing 117.4 per game
Wake Forest most recently is 5-2 ATS after playing Georgia Tech
Yellow Jackets are third in the league in forcing turnovers with 3.0 per game
Virginia most recently is 3-5 ATS before playing Virginia Tech
LSU most recently is 8-2 ATS after a win
Crimson Tide is the toughest team to score on in the league, allowing just 8.2/game
Colorado most recently is 6-3 ATS after playing Missouri
Iowa St. most recently is 1-6 ATS after playing Kansas St
Arizona St. is second in the league in passing at 381.6 yards per game.
UCLA is second best in the league in committing turnovers with 0.8 per game
UNLV most recently is 2-8 ATS after being out gained by opponent
Horned Frogs lead the league in takehomes with 3.4 per game
Auburn most recently is 4-6 ATS when they are a dog on the road
Georgia most recently is 9-1 ATS when they are favored at home
Oregon most recently is 8-2 ATS after a win
Washington St. most recently is 2-8 ATS after a loss
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:40am -
0 likes
HSW EARLY PHONES-----
7* ARIZONA
4* OHIO ST.
4* HAWAII
2* PURDUE
2* OKLAHOMA
2* OREGON ST.
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:41am -
0 likes
JD West
3*Hawaii
1* Steam Game-Florida State
L&M Las Vegas
8*Ohio State
4*Idaho
2*Michigan
2*E Carolina
2*Oregon State
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:41am -
0 likes
Doc Enterprizes
5 Michigan
California
4Clemson
Ohio State
Navy
Purdue
Pitt
A Play
25 Ohio State
10 Purdue
Notre Dame
W. Michigan
Utah
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:43am -
0 likes
FEIST BLOWOUT GAME HAWAII
COKINS STARDUST PLAYS VIRGINIA ...E CAROLINA..... UAB
wow alot on hawaii..ohio st..wisky..iowa st.
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:43am -
0 likes
Tony Diamond
5* (locks)
Missouri,,,utah
3* kent & Auburn
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:44am -
0 likes
marc lawrence
CFB - 12:00 ET
Northwestern at Ohio St.
5 STAR BEST BET on Ohio St. (-18.5) over Northwestern by 27
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:44am -
0 likes
JOEY GAFFNEY
14-0 LAST SATURDAY IN COLLEGE.
Pittsburgh 5* BB 12
Oklahoma 5* BB 13
Minnesota 5* BB 5
BYU 5* BB 4.5
California 5* BB 20
Arizona State 5* BB 4
Iowa State 5* BB 2
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:45am -
0 likes
big al
Championship Club Big 10 Game of the Week
Purdue
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:46am -
0 likes
special K
20 Miss, Iowa St
15 Florida
10 New Mexico
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:46am -
0 likes
POINTTRAINS 10* GOY.....MINNESOTA-5.5
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:46am -
0 likes
Pointwise
4* auburn,,,ok
3*ohio st..byu,,minny..haw,,,texas..ark..iowa st..pitt
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:46am -
0 likes
Dr Bob Writeups
3 Star Selection
***OHIO ST. (-18.5) 42 Northwestern 12
9 am Pacific - Game #122
Northwestern is a vastly better team now than they were in the first
half of the season, but the Buckeyes are also
much better and their dominating defense will be able to handle the
Wildcats' prolific attack. Northwestern has
averaged an impressive 6.5 yards per play this season against a
schedule of teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an
average team, but today Brett Basanez and company must take on a
Buckeyes' defense that it a bit better, allowing
4.4 yppl to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team.
It is on the other side of the ball where
Ohio State has the advantage, as quarterback Troy Smith leads an
attack that has averaged 6.7 yppl (against teams
that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) since he took over as
the full-time quarterback after easing his way
into the lineup early in the season. Northwestern has a much better
defense now than their full season stats show,
as Wildcats' coach Randy Walker made some defensive changes in
personnel during their week 5 bye week. Northwestern
is 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively for the season (6.3 yppl
allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl
against an average defense), but the Wildcats are 0.4 yppl better than
average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would
average 6.0 yppl against an average team) in 5 games since the
defensive changes were made. Even after making those
adjustments, my math model still has Ohio State's offense racking up
454 yards at 6.3 yppl while the Buckeyes'
defense holds Northwestern to 332 yards at 5.0 yppl. The hidden value
in playing Ohio State is their great special
teams, which rate as the 2nd best in the nation at +9.4 points per
game better than an average Division 1A team.
Northwestern is 2.4 points per game worse than average in special
teams and my special teams ratings have tested to
be very accurate going forward and are actually probably the reason my
math model is so much better than the actual
line (because special teams are never given the full value that they
should be by the oddsmakers and other
handicappers). In this game the math favors Ohio State by 25 points,
which gives them a 58.5% chance of covering at
-17 points (based on the historical performance of my math
predictions). Ohio State also applies to a 176-88-7 ATS
home momentum situation and a 52-16 ATS last home game angle that
combine to give the Buckeyes a 57% chance of
covering a fair line. The Buckeyes are 13-5-1 ATS in conference home
games the last few years and Northwestern has
played worse in games following a victory the last 2 seasons (3-7-1
ATS), than they have in all other games (8-2
ATS), so I don't expect the 'Cats to play their best today after last
week's satisfying come-from- behind win over
Iowa. I'll lay up to 21 points with Ohio State in this game and the
Buckeyes are a 3-Star Best Bet at -20 points or
less and I'll Upgrade Ohio State to a 4-Star Best Bet if they become a
favorite of 16 points or less.
3 Star Selection
***Kentucky 35 VANDERBILT (-12.5) 34
11 am Pacific - Game #135
Kentucky is 5-2 ATS and they remain an underrated team given the
number the oddsmakers have posted on this game.
Kentucky started the season with a promising 24-31 loss as a 22 point
underdog to a very good Louisville team, but a
number of defensive injuries in their second game, and an injury to
top receiver Keenan Burton kept the Wildcats
from building on that opening effort. The Kentucky defense has been
1.1 yppl worse than average in their 7 games
since that good effort against Louisville, so Vanderbilt's mediocre
offense (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow
5.2 yppl to an average team) should post pretty good numbers in this
game. Kentucky has been decent offensively this
season (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average
team) and that unit got much better two weeks
ago when Burton returned to the lineup. Kentucky has a good rushing
attack (4.9 yards per rushing play against teams
that would allow just 4.5 yprp to an average team) and quarterback
Andre' Woodson has averaged 6.3 yards per pass
play in 4 games with Burton (the first two and the most recent two)
against teams that would combine to allow 6.1
yppp to an average quarterback. Burton looked great last week against
Auburn (7 catches for 100 yards) and Woodson
averaged an impressive 6.6 yppp against the Tigers' good defensive
unit (which would allow 5.8 yppp on the road to
an average team). With Burton back in the lineup, the Wildcats' attack
rates at 0.3 yppl better than average and
they'll also move the ball well in this game against a Commodores'
defense that has surrendered 6.0 yppl this season
to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average
defensive team. So, Kentucky has a 0.9 yppl
advantage when they have the ball and Vandy has a 1.2 yppl advantage
over the Wildcats' defense. That difference is
certainly not enough to justify Vanderbilt being a double- digit
favorite and my math model actually favors the
Commodores by only 1 point because of a Kentucky's huge edge in
special teams (8.8 points). The Wildcats have one of
the nation's best special teams ratings while Vanderbilt has poor
special teams, so the field position will more
than make up for the small difference in yards per play for each team.
I realize that Vanderbilt will be playing to
become bowl eligible, but the Commodores are actually due for a
letdown following last week's high-scoring 42-49
overtime loss to Florida (it was 35-35 at the end of regulation).
Teams that lose a high scoring affair have a tough
time bouncing back with a good effort the next week and the Commodores
apply to a negative 64-114-3 ATS situation
based on that premise. The line value alone is enough to justify a
play on Kentucky, so this is a good play even if
Vanderbilt's need to win cancels out the negative situation that they
are in. I'll take the points with Kentucky in
a solid 3-Star Best Bet. Downgrade to a 2-Star Best Bet if Kentucky
becomes an underdog of less than 10 points.
3 Star Selection
***Iowa 34 WISCONSIN (-3.0) 26
12:30 pm Pacific - Game #143
Wisconsin was exposed last week by Penn State, but the Badgers remain
vastly overrated and should not be favored
against a an Iowa team that has lost on the final play in each of
their last two games and should be better than
5-4. The Hawkeyes have an outstanding offense that can run the ball
(5.5 yards per rushing play against Division 1A
opposition that would allow 4.6 yprp to an average team) and throw the
ball (Tate has averaged 6.9 yards per pass
play against D-1A teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average
quarterback) equally well and rate at 1.1 yards per
play better than average with Tate at quarterback. Iowa will have no
problem moving the ball today against a
Wisconsin defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl
allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against
an average defensive unit). The Badgers are 0.4 yppl better than
average offensively, averaging 5.6 yppl against
teams that would allow 5.2 yppl, but Iowa is just as good defensively
(5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average
5.5 yppl against an average team). As you can see, Wisconsin is
actually just an average team overall from the line
of scrimmage (0.4 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl
worse than average on defense) while Iowa is 1.5
yppl better than average. Wisconsin is 8-2 because they are +8 in
turnover margin and have one of the nation's best
special teams ratings (+8.0 points per game better than an average
Division 1A team). However, my math model
projects only a 0.15 turnover advantage for the Badgers and Iowa's
special teams are 7.2 points better than average,
so Wisconsin won't have their usual advantage in that area. Overall,
the math favors Iowa by 6 points and the
Hawkeyes will surely be focused after last week's come-from-ahead loss
to Northwestern dropped them to 5-4 on the
season. Teams that lose to drop to 1 game over .500 have a tendency to
play well the next week and Iowa applies to a
31-6-1 ATS subset of an 85-30-3 ATS situation that is based on that
premise. Iowa is also 15-2 ATS the next week
after a loss (5-0 ATS after back-to-back losses) and the Hawkeyes are
18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 games as an
underdog. I'll take the points with Iowa in a 3-Star Best Bet as long
as the Hawkeyes remain an underdog.
3 Star Selection
***ARIZONA (-13.0) 40 Washington 17
3 pm Pacific - Game #170
Arizona dismantled unbeaten UCLA last week and that momentum should
carry over to this game, as teams at .500 or
less that win straight up as a home underdog tend to cover the next
week if they are at home (81-48-4 ATS). Arizona
applies to a 31-4 ATS subset of that situation and Washington may have
a tough time getting up for a road game after
blowing their best chance to win at game last week when they lost to
Oregon State (Washington applies to a negative
46-90-3 ATS situation based on their winless conference record).
Washington coach Ty Willingham made a mistake in
taking out starting quarterback Isaiah Stanback early in that game
(despite the fact that Stanback had averaged a
solid 7.1 yards per pass play on 13 pass plays) and replacing him with
incompetent backup Johnny DuRocher, who
averaged just 2.6 yppp on his 33 pass plays against Oregon State.
Thankfully for Washington, DuRocher broke his hand
and is out for the season, so expect Stanback back in the lineup in
this game. The bad news for Washington is that
Stanback's good play (7.2 yppp this season against teams that would
allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) won't
be enough to keep the Huskies competitive against an Arizona team that
has been revitalized since the red shirt was
taken off talented freshman quarterback Willie Tuitama. Tuitama
stepped in for a struggling Richard Kovalcheck
against Oregon and rallied the team and has since started the last two
games. Overall, Tuitama has averaged 8.1 yppp
in 3 games against teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yppp to
an average quarterback and the Wildcats have
averaged a whopping 7.8 yards per play in his two starts against
Oregon State and UCLA teams that would combine to
allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. The better than normal running
attack lately can not be attributed to Tuitama, so
I actually rate the Wildcats' offense at 1.1 yppl better than average
with Tuitama at the helm. Washington's defense
is slightly better than average on a national scale (6.0 yppl allowed
to teams that would average 6.1 yppl against
an average team), but that unit is not good by Pac-10 standards and
Arizona should have another productive offensive
game. The Washington offense is 0.7 yppl better than average with
Stanback at quarterback (5.8 yppl against teams
that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and Arizona is 0.2 yppl
better than average defensively (6.0 yppl
allowed to teams that would average 6.2 yppl against an average team),
so the Huskies should move the ball pretty
well too. However, Arizona has an advantage in projected turnovers,
they are at home, and the Wildcats have
outstanding special teams even with punter Bougher out. The Wildcats
actually have a better net punting average
without Bougher's 47.5 punting average because Bougher also boomed too
many kicks into the endzone for touchbacks
and his long boots resulted in plenty of room for the opposing
returning to work with. Place-kicker Nick Folk has
averaged 41.9 yards per punt and 40.7 net in his two full games as the
punter and Arizona's special teams rate at
5.7 points per game better than average (compared to Washington's -0.7
points). Overall, the math favors Arizona by
17 points in this game and the situations favor Arizona. The 31-4 ATS
angle favoring the Wildcats only applies at -
14 points or less, so I'll only make this a Best Bet at -14 points or
less. Downgrade Arizona to a 2-Star if they
are favored by 13 ½ or 14 points and Downgrade Arizona to a Strong
Opinion if they are favored by more than 14
points.
2 Star Selection
**IDAHO 26 Louisiana Tech (-10.0) 27
2 pm Pacific - Game #166
There's really not much difference between Idaho and Louisiana Tech
except for their records, which are 5-3 for LA
Tech and 2-6 for Idaho. Let's start by comparing the offenses. Idaho
rates at 0.7 yards per play worse than average
offensively, averaging 4.9 yppl (with starting QB Wichman in the game)
against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an
average team. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, is also 0.7 yppl worse than
average (with starting QB Kubik in the game),
averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an
average team. Idaho's defense is 0.8 yppl worse
than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would average 5.2 yppl
against an average team) while the Bulldogs are 0.6
yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that
would average 4.7 yppl against an average team).
So, while Idaho has been out-gained by 1.1 yppl (4.9 yppl to 6.0 yppl)
and Louisiana Tech has been out-gained by
only 0.3 yppl (5.0 yppl to 5.3 yppl) there is really only a 0.2 yppl
overall advantage in Louisiana Tech's favor
after compensating for the much easier schedule of teams that the
Bulldogs faced. That is something that apparently
is not showing up in the line and my math model favors Louisiana Tech
by only 2 points (Idaho is at home, but
Louisiana Tech has an advantage in projected turnovers and special
teams). I also like the fact that Idaho has had
an extra week to prepare and they should be eager to hit the field
again after winning a game just prior to their
bye week (teams coming off a win and bye are good bets as home
underdogs). Vandals' quarterback Steven Wichman
should also have a good game throwing against a Bulldogs' defense that
has allowed 5.9 yards per pass play to teams
that would combine to average just 5.0 yppp against an average
defensive team. Wichman has struggled throwing
against good defensive teams this season, and he is 0.4 yppp worse
than average overall (6.1 yppp against teams that
would allow 6.5 yppp to an average team), but Wichman has averaged 8.0
yppp against the 4 bad pass defenses he has
faced this season (UNLV, Hawaii, Utah State, and New Mexico State -
who would combine to allow 7.3 yppp to an
average QB). I'll take Idaho in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or
more and I'll Downgrade Idaho to a Strong Opinion
if they become an underdog of less than 10 points.
2 Star Selection
**NORTH CAROLINA (-2.5) 29 Maryland 17
9 am Pacific - Game #116
North Carolina is a quiet 6-2 ATS this season and the Tarheels are
still underrated even after upsetting Boston
College last Saturday. UNC isn't much offensively (4.7 yppl with QB
Baker under center, against teams that would
allow 4.9 yppl to an average team), and they rate at 0.1 yppl worse
than average with RB Ronnie McGill as the main
back the last 4 games after missing the first 4 games with an injury.
The Tarheels have a solid defense that rates
at 0.8 yppl better than average (5.1 yppl against teams that would
average 5.9 yppl against an average team) and
they have good special teams (+3.8 points per game). Maryland's
starting quarterback Sam Hollenbach returns this
week after missing the Terps' game against Florida State with an
injury to his non-throwing shoulder and Hollenbach
has averaged 7.3 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an
average team. I rate Maryland's offense at 0.7
yppl better than average with Hollenbach at the helm and Lance Ball as
the main ball carrier (he missed the first
few weeks). Maryland's defense is only 0.2 yppl better than average
(5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average
5.6 yppl against an average team), so Maryland has an overall
advantage of 0.2 yppl from the line of scrimmage,
which is negated by the home field advantage (my math model adjusts
for home field and has both teams gaining 355
total yards in this game). North Carolina has a solid advantage in
special teams and my math model favors the
Tarheels by 6 ½ points. North Carolina has the line value on their
side and the Tarheels apply to a 50-14-1 ATS home
momentum situation that is based on last week's upset win over Boston
College. That situation has a 57.2% chance of
covering given a fair line and the line value adds a bit to that
percentage and makes the Tarheels worthy of a
2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
Possible Best Bet
VIRGINIA (-5.0) 30 Georgia Tech 14
12:30 pm Pacific - Game #120
Possible Best Bet - Read the Note Below
Virginia and Georgia Tech are similar teams in that they are both
mediocre offensively and good defensively, but the
Cavaliers have far superior special teams, are at home, and qualify in
a strong positive situation. The Cavs'
offense is 0.1 yppl worse than average this season (5.4 yppl against
teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average
team), which is the same rating as Georgia Tech's offense when Reggie
Ball is at quarterback (5.1 yppl against teams
that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team - Ball missed the U Conn
game). Both defensive units are good for the
season and both have improved with the return of a star player in
recent weeks. Georgia Tech' stop unit has allowed
4.7 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an
average defense), but they have been 0.1 yppl
better in 4 games that star DE Eric Henderson has played in this
season (the first 2 and the most recent 2).
Virginia's defense received a bigger boost recently when All-American
LB Ahmad Brooks returned to form 3 games ago
and has looked better and better each week after spending most of the
season recovering from off-season knee
surgery. Virginia's defense is only 0.2 yppl better than average for
the season, but they have allowed just 4.4 yppl
in their last 3 games (against teams that would combine to average 5.2
yppl against an average team) since Brooks
became healthy enough to contribute. These teams are pretty even from
the line of scrimmage, but Virginia has very
good special teams and Georgia Tech has bad special teams, which
result in the math model favoring the Cavaliers by
8 points in this game. Virginia's recent good defensive outings (just
10 points total allowed in their last two
games) sets up the Cavaliers in a very strong 45-8 ATS home favorite
momentum situation that has a 58.8% chance of
covering a fair line. The line on this game appears to be better than
fair and Virginia knows that they must win
this game to become bowl eligible since their two remaining games are
against Virginia Tech and Miami-Florida, so
you can expect their best effort on a field where the Cavs are 18-5
ATS in games when not favored by more than 23
points.
NOTE: There are some suspensions of Virginia players likely to be
handed out prior to this game. There has been no
indication as to how many players are involved and who those players
are, which makes this game tough to bet at this
time. I will wait until the suspensions have been announced before
making a final call on this game, but Virginia
was a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less prior to my knowledge of
the impending suspensions. I will send out an
email to my clients and post the updated analysis on the web-site when
the announcement is made, letting you know if
Virginia is still a Best Bet or a Strong Opinion instead. The score
listed above is the predicted score prior to any
supsensions.
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:47am -
0 likes
Red zone sports
wyoming
BYU is 13-28 ATS on the road since 1992, and over the last three years
are 3-11 ATS after two or more consecutive SU wins. Cougars are 0-4 ATS in
their last four trips to Laramie, and Wyoming is 3-1 ATS in home finales the
last four years. Listen to your experts at RED ZONE SPORTS, don't get
suckered into taking BYU, and grab the Wyoming Cowboys to cover early
Saturday evening.
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:48am -
0 likes
Wayne Root
Chairman-California
Millionaire-New Mexico
Trophy-Game of the Decade-Wyoming
NO LIMIT-Iowa
Board of directors-Clemson
Fortune 5000-Maryland
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:49am -
0 likes
Saw On Another Site...doc's Goy Is Wisky
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:52am -
0 likes
Krunch's Saturday Football Fades
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are 3 early games to play!!!
Connecticut +12; I got 13-2 services on Pitt, fading Lenny Stevens also!!!
Northwestern +21 (buy a pt); I got 20-7 services on Ohio State and this game opened at -18 1/2 pts and has moved up to -20.
Illinois +23; I got 13-1 on Purdue
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:52am -
0 likes
docs confirmed goy and added play
8* Wisconsin...also 5* Minnesota
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:52am -
0 likes
Dave Cokin
Goy-arizona
Hat-bama, Emich
Window-virginia, Ecarolina
Bg-ohio St
Reg-texas, Colo St
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:53am -
0 likes
Glenn Mcgrew
Mountain West Goy Utah
Wac Goy Hawaii
Sec Goy Lsu
Prime Play Nc St
posted by phantom
Nov. 12 2005 11:53am