Power Sweep
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College
4* BYU
3* Mich. Texas Tech
2* SDST Ari. St. Ohio St.
Earlybird play: Purdue
NFL
4* KC
3* Car
2* Den Sea
Totals
3* KC/Buf over, Den/Oak over, Bal/Jax under
2* SF/Chi under, GB/Atl over
Confidential Kick-Off!!
The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping
Leaders For 48 Seasons!
CKO Vol. 44 November 10-14, 2005 No. 11
11 *IOWA STATE over Colorado
Late Score Forecast:
*IOWA STATE 27 - Colorado 17
Iowa State a changed team now that RB Stevie Hicks (271 YR last two games;
1062 YR LY as a soph) back from early injury to power the previously
somnambulant Cyclone ground game. And scouts in Ames report ISU extremely
fired up for several reasons. Cyclones need to win to stay alive for Big XII
North championship, which they shared with Colorado TY, only to lose a spot
the in Big XII title game because of their 19-14 loss in Boulder when ISU
kickers missed two chip-shot FGs. A victory also gets 5-3 Cyclones closer to
a bowl, and this is the last home game for their seniors. ISU 8-1 last 9 as
an underdog, with the only non-cover a 27-20 OT loss TY at Nebraska when
Cyclones were getting 3.5. With Hicks balancing the offense, speedy QB Meyer
has 7 TDP the last 2 games, 5 of them to 6-5 WR Blythe, who is now his former
elusive self after off-season ACL surgery. Even if they lose this one, CU
knows it can still clinch North in final home game vs. Nebraska.
10 GEORGIA TECH over *Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
GEORGIA TECH 27 - *Virginia 20
Georgia Tech has proven the theory that "defense travels" recently. The
Engineers have turned in just one bad outing in their last 7 road games,
covering 6 of those (including trips to Auburn & Georgia) while allowing just
13 ppg in those covers. The only bad result in the string came at Blacksburg
against powerful Virginia Tech earlier this season. GT's defense is ranked
14th against the run and 10th in pass efficiency, and they have a knack for
creating takeaways, as the Engineers rank 5th in the country in turnover
margin. Tech RB P.J. Daniels has perked up lately, turning in 100-yard games
and running for 5.4 ypc in the last two games. Tech QB Reggie Ball has
generated 229 ypg in total offense this season and, after a midseason slump,
PK Travis Bell has made 4 of his last 5 FGs (24 of 32 career). He's never
missed an extra point. GT also has an excellent punting game (ranked 15th).
10 *MISSISSIPPI over Arkansas
Late Score Forecast:
*MISSISSIPPI 23 - Arkansas 10
Oxford insiders say Ole Miss remains upbeat despite its losing record, as
Rebels reportedly had crisp, enthusiastic practices for fiery HC Ed Oregeron
during last week's bye. Arkansas a troubled side right now. Hogs have only
2 SU wins this season, at home over Div. I-AA Missouri State & Sun Belt rep
Louisiana-Monroe. Longtime mentor Houston Nutt feeling some heat in
Fayetteville, and he's made a switch at QB to true frosh Casey Dick, who was
running scout team until a couple weeks ago. Dick struggled to move chains
in last week's home loss to South Carolina, and he won't have much success
against a swarming Ole Miss stop unit (only 3.5 ypc) that matches up well vs.
ground-oriented Arkansas attack (only 15 ppg last 4 in SEC). Big experience
edge to Rebel QBs sr. Michael Spurlock & jr. Ethan Flatt. And speedy RS
frosh RB Mico McSwain will provide plenty of ground support against yielding
Hog defense (4.9 ypc).
10 CENTRAL FLORIDA over *UAB
Late Score Forecast:
CENTRAL FLORIDA 28 - *UAB 26
Savvy C-USA scouts still believe the nation's most improved team is 6-3 UCF
(0-11 LY!) and isn't getting sufficient respect from the oddsmakers,
considerng the well-coached, rejuvenated Bulls have won 5 of their last 6
games and are currently tied for 1st place in the East Division.
Finely-tuned, well-balanced UCF attack (33 ppg last 5)-featuring productive
sr. QB Moffett (61%, 16 TDP, 5 ints.), tackle-breaking RB K. Smith (743 YR)
& rangy WRs Marshall & M. Walker (combined 105 grabs & 15 TDs)-will continue
to excel vs. the unreliable UAB defense that still gives up too many big
plays in crucial times. And while Blazers strong-armed QB Hackney will move
ball, we don't see him exploding vs. a tightening Bull 2ndary that's been
badly burned only once since early September. And must minimize any
meaningful home-field advantage for UAB at Legion Field (72,000 capacity),
where Blazers drew just 31,363 vs. Southern Miss on Oct. 21st. For technical
support, Brown's team just 6-13 as chalk since 2002, and competitive road
dogs (13.5-pts. or fewer) have covered nearly 60% TY.
10 *CHICAGO over San Francisco
Late Score Forecast:
*CHICAGO 26 - San Francisco 3
(Sunday, November 13)
Rebuilding San Francisco has struggled greatly when away from home TY, losing
42-3 at Philly, managing zero offensive TDs vs. Arizona in Mexico City, and
losing 52-17 at Washington. With physically-talented, but young and erratic
QB Cody Pickett making his first career start on the road, it's tough to
imagine 49ers turning around their fortunes vs. a voracious Chicago defense
(10 ppg at home) that has been built by Lovie Smith to thrive on opponents'
mistakes, as his units did when Smith was def. coord. at St. Louis. Pickett
generated only 9 FDs and 138 yards of offense last week in his debut at home
vs. the Giants. And CKO scouts report this Chicago team is chemistry-rich
and generating the same inner enthusiasm as the 2001 group, which went 13-3.
Bears have won & covered 4 straight, and they're 6-2 vs. the spread overall.
TOTALS: UNDER (33) in Baltimore-Jacksonville game-Ravens rugged on defense
and the lowest-scoring team in league...UNDER (33) in Washington-Tampa Bay
game-Total is low, but defenses strong and offenses inconsistent.
HONORABLE MENTION: PITTSBURGH (-12.5) vs. Connecticut-This is a must-win game
for Panthers (4-0 last 4 as home favorite) if Pitt wants to have a chance at
a bowl...PURDUE (-22.5) vs. Illinois-Boilermakers back on track with a win;
Illinois still on track as one of the worst defensive teams in a major
conference...EAST CAROLINA (+10.5) at Tulsa-East Carolina has the offensive
weapons, style & knack of hanging around vs. teams in its class...LA.-MONROE
(+10) at Middle Tennessee State-Indians have the offense (27 or more 5 of
last 6 games) to battle few-big-plays Middle all the way...PHILADELPHIA
(-2.5) vs. Dallas-Eagles can't afford to lose another divisional game; most
players delighted to see Westbrook inked and T.O. banned (at least for now).
The Harmon Forecast
Sep. 8, 2005
In its 49th year, The Harmon Forecast predicts probable scores of college and NFL football games each week.
Game of the Week
Auburn 23, *Georgia 17
In the South's oldest rivalry, we take Auburn to win at Georgia. Auburn leads the all-time series 52-48-8, including last year's 24-6 victory.
Week of Nov. 11
Major Colleges - Div. I-A
*Alabama 23 LSU 20
*Arizona 31 Washington 30
Arkansas 21 *Mississippi 14
*Army 20 Massachusetts 6
*Boston College 26 North Carolina State 21
*Colorado State 29 San Diego State 14
Central Florida 23 *UAB 17
*Eastern Michigan 28 Ball State 19
Florida 24 *South Carolina 21
*Florida Atlantic 16 North Texas 14
Florida State 27 *Clemson 23
*Fresno State 34 Boise State 28
Georgia Tech 23 *Virginia 20
*Hawaii 41 Utah State 10
*Houston 33 Southern Methodist 17
*Kent State 24 Buffalo 14
*La.-Lafayette 22 Florida International 17
Louisiana Tech 30 *Idaho 14
*Louisville 34 Rutgers 21
*Iowa State 23 Colorado 20
Maryland 23 *North Carolina 21
*Michigan 30 Indiana 17
*Middle Tennessee 28 Louisiana-Monroe 24
*Missouri 27 Baylor 14
*Minnesota 35 Michigan State 31
*Nebraska 23 Kansas State 21
Nevada 31 *New Mexico State 14
New Mexico 24 *Utah 17
*Notre Dame 36 Navy 20
*Ohio State 31 Northwestern 23
Oregon 35 *Washington State 27
*Oregon State 31 Stanford 28
*Pittsburgh 27 Connecticut 24
*Purdue 30 Illinois 17
South Florida 17 *Syracuse 7
Southern California 35 *California 31
Southern Mississippi 23 *Marshall 20
*TCU 24 UNLV 17
*Tennessee 23 Memphis 13
*Texas 44 Kansas 13
Texas A&M 31 *Oklahoma 24
*Texas-El Paso 44 Texas Southern 6
Texas Tech 38 *Oklahoma State 21
Troy 17 *Arkansas State 14
Tulane 23 *Rice 10
*Tulsa 28 East Carolina 17
*UCLA 38 Arizona State 31
*Vanderbilt 29 Kentucky 13
West Virginia 27 *Cincinnati 17
*Western Michigan 23 Central Michigan 21
*Wisconsin 31 Iowa 26
*Wyoming 28 Brigham Young 27
* - Denotes home team
Pointwise NCAA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Minn, BYU 2 Ia St 3 Aub 4 Lvl, Mo 5 Ia, TCU
Pointwise - NFL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2-NYG 3-GB 4-Phil, Cle 5-Oak
Red Sheet NCAA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
89-Pitt, Okla 88-Ia St, Mich, Minn 87-BYU, Md, Pur, Mem
Red Sheet NFL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
88-NYG 87-Buff, StL, Phil
Mejia's Selections
By Tony Mejia
SportsLine.com Staff Writer
Weekly predictions of the nation's Division I college football action.
Last week: 37-16 |Season to date: 406-141 (74.2%)
2004 season record: 469-156 (75.0 %)
Projected Scores
Week 11
Southern Mississippi 17 *Marshall 13
West Virginia 34 *Cincinnati 14
*Fresno State 38 Boise State 30
*Louisville 38 Rutgers 20
*Notre Dame 34 Navy 17
Ball State 45 *Eastern Michigan 41
*Kent State 20 Buffalo 10
*Army 23 Massachusetts 6
*Western Michigan 54 Central Michigan 10
*Vanderbilt 30 Kentucky 27
*Rice 27 Tulane 17
*Tulsa 41 East Carolina 10
*Tennessee 33 Memphis 17
Nevada 51 *New Mexico State 31
*UAB 31 Central Florida 27
North Texas 13 *Florida Atlantic 10
Louisiana Tech 36 *Idaho 34
*La.-Lafayette 24 Florida International 7
*Arizona 45 Washington 10
*UCLA 44 Arizona State 27
*Houston 28 Southern Methodist 27
*TCU 38 UNLV 3
Troy 27 *Arkansas State 24
*Texas-El Paso 37 Texas Southern 10
Oregon 42 *Washington State 27
*Hawaii 41 Utah State 17
LSU 17 *Alabama 13
*North Carolina 20 Maryland 16
*Mississippi 27 Arkansas 23
*Georgia 20 Auburn 6
*Minnesota 37 Michigan State 27
*Middle Tennessee 35 Louisiana-Monroe 13
*Missouri 32 Baylor 27
*Nebraska 21 Kansas State 13
*Utah 27 New Mexico 24
*Boston College 30 North Carolina State 13
*Wyoming 27 Brigham Young 23
Southern California 55 *California 17
*Ohio State 34 Northwestern 20
*Oregon State 31 Stanford 20
*Syracuse 20 South Florida 17
Texas Tech 48 *Oklahoma State 31
*Pittsburgh 24 Connecticut 23
*Purdue 48 Illinois 6
*Colorado State 34 San Diego State 20
Florida 37 *South Carolina 24
*Michigan 33 Indiana 13
*Clemson 24 Florida State 16
*Iowa State 27 Colorado 10
*Oklahoma 34 Texas A&M 10
*Texas 43 Kansas 10
*Virginia 27 Georgia Tech 9
*Wisconsin 37 Iowa 31
Home team *
Mejia's Barking Dogs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are the Mejia dogs to win outright. He went 4-4 last week with N. Texas losing, but covering. Pinny lines as of Wed 4 P.M.
Ball St +6
North Texas +4
Troy +3
*Wyoming +2.5
*Syracuse +8
*Clemson +1
*Iowa St. +2.5
*home
marc lawrence
5 BEST BET
OHIO STATE over Northwestern by 27
After exploding for 49 points at Michigan State, Northwestern
is struggling to put points on the board. The tough defenses
of Iowa and Michigan were able to solve the complexities of
Randy Walker’s offense and held the explosive Wildcats in
check. Here’s a flash! Ohio State has a pretty tough defense,
too! Northwestern has never had much luck in the Horseshoe.
The Purple Cats have scored a total of 65 points in their last
NINE games here. When you have one of the worst defenses
in the country, your offense better be clicking on all cylinders
because 7 PPG doesn't cut it. With nasty revenge, and our
Awesome Angle of the Week (see page 2) on OSU's side,
we'll stand by our red-hot Buckeyes who are 18-3 ATS at home
in SU revenge victories, including 13-1 ATS when the foe is
off a win. Buckeyes in a roast.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3 BEST BET
WYOMING over Byu by 6
Byu has had more trouble with the Cowboys than the Indians
did. The Mormons have one cover in the last nine meeting
and none in the last four on this field. For some inexplicable
reason Wyoming has dropped each of its last four games,
both SU & ATS. Conversely, BYU has scored 117 points in its
last two games, each wins and covers. For it all we catch the
Cowboys getting points in their home finale (they would
have been touchdown favorites the first week of the season
in this contest). We'll gladly oblige as Wyoming needs this
like blood in order to stay bowl-eligible.
Western Michigan surprised us with its relatively easy win against
Eastern Michigan in Detroit last week. The Broncos quieted the
Emu offense while their own young QB continued his stellar play.
Central, meanwhile, was in an impossible scheduling spot. The
Chippewas had just won their biggest game in a decade and
were facing a Northern Illinois team off its most humiliating loss
in years. It’ll be interesting to see how this one pans out.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4 BEST BET
Michigan State over MINNESOTA by 10
It was obvious, to even the most casual observer, that the
Gophers didn’t have any heads under their helmets in the
first half at Indiana. After falling behind 14-7, the Gophs
put up 35 second-half points with its relentless running
game to bury the Hoosiers in a sea of first downs and
touchdowns. Michigan State’s defense isn’t any better than
Indiana’s and the Spartans could get run over just as badly.
Still, Michigan State is a winning team and Minny doesn’t
beat winning teams at this time of the year. Would you
believe 14 straight ATS losses after game seven? Love the
fact that MSU stands 26-5 ATS as dogs in games they score
although Rice doesn’t possess anywhere near the firepower of
Navy, the Owls are capable of winning this. Remember the
Buffalo dilemma? We couldn’t recommend a favorite that has
no wins. The Owls have lost 14 in a row. They are also a 'Puttin'
On The Stats' play-against as chalk. We're there.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LOUISVILLE over Rutgers by 20
Think what you want about Louisville and its two losses at South
Florida and at West Virginia but do not disillusion yourself about
the Cardinals in Papa John Stadium. In their last ten games there,
the Redbirds are 10-0 SU & ATS – averaging 55 points per game
and winning every game by at least 19 points. Rutgers is 7-0 ATS
in its last seven as a DD dog but the Scarlet Knights are also 2-24
ATS in their last 26 conference road games when allowing 40 or
more points. Tough call finds us on the sidelines for the moment.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
W Virginia over CINCINNATI by 12
Other than Louisville, there is no competition in the Big Least for
the Mountaineers. But, the Hillbillies are going into an impressive
set of Cincinnati numbers. The Bearcats are 9-1 ATS as a home
dog with rest, 11-3 ATS as DD home pups and 27-16 ATS in
conference home games. However, the Mounties have a net two
yard advantage in the Yards Per Carry column and a 52-16 ATS
mark in their last 68 road games when gaining more ground yards
than the enemy. LHG (Last Home Game) angle favors Cincy.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FRESNO ST over Boise St by 6
There’s no question that Fresno State has been waiting for this
game since the beginning of the season. Our question is – why?
The Bulldogs are 0-4 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with
Boise and that includes three straight two touchdown (or worse)
losses. Boise is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as an underdog and
11-1 ATS against opponents who are off BB SU wins. Fresno won’t
lay down for anybody, but the Bulldog offense is in a funk right
now. Can only take the conference Bear with the points in this.
S Florida over SYRACUSE by 5
We won’t argue if you tell us that Syracuse is easily the most
disappointing team in college football this season (Oops! Forgot
about Purdon’t) and refuse to believe that the Orange can win
this game. We won’t argue, but we will tell you that the Cuse is
20-2 ATS in the second of BB home games. It’s strange to see
South Florida take three at Rutgers, then lay a TD at Syracuse.
OKLAHOMA over Texas A&M by 12
You can see improvement in the Sooners from the first game of
the season, a home loss to TCU. Rhett Bomar is gaining both
experience and confidence as the season goes along and the
Oklahoma defense is getting a little stingier. The same
improvement is not visible in the Texas A&M team. The Gaggies
have been very impressive in a couple of wins but utterly depressive
in their losses. The last time A&M visited Norman, they were
treated to a 77-0 disembowelment. No Gaggies for us.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BOSTON COLLEGE over NC State by 4
North Carolina State has established itself as the King of college
football’s road underdogs. The Wolfpack is 13-0 ATS in that role
in its last baker’s dozen tries. But trends don’t last forever... a
perfect example of ending trends is Boston College. From October
of ’99 to November of ’02, BC covered 14 consecutive conference
home games. The Eagles are 2-7 ATS in that role since.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
N CAROLINA over Maryland by 3
Maryland has covered six in a row against the Tar Heels and is
desperately looking for a win. It won’t be easy against a Tar Heel
team that has covered 12 in a row in conference play. Carolina
has played well enough to beat teams it shouldn’t have and bad
enough to lose a game by 55 points. Which band of Tar Heels
will come to the field today? Your guess is as bad as ours.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PITTSBURGH over Connecticut by 13
The Panthers had us all fooled last Thursday. They were matching
Louisville step for step and appeared poised for an upset or, at
the least, a white-knuckle finish. The Panthers failed to come
out of the locker room after the break and lost by 21. Connecticut
fooled no one. The Huskies left no doubt that they were
outclassed from the initial snap. UConn’s fraudulent early
schedule is obviously catching up to the Huskies. Pitt is a reliable
home favorite with seven covers in its last ten tries.
VIRGINIA over Georgia Tech by 3
In retrospect, it was probably unfair of us to expect so much from
Virginia. The Cavaliers have suffered enough injuries to fill their
own hospital but, through it all, have managed to compete at all
levels, including handing Florida State its only loss of the season.
Georgia Tech has travelled a similar road with the Yellow Jacket
claim to fame being the win at Auburn, the Tigers only home loss
in the last two plus years. These two gutty teams still have too
many players on the DL for us to consider a play, but we like the
fact the Techsters have cashed in five of their last six as road pups.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PURDUE over Illinois by 27
Purdue, despite the record, has played pretty well over the last
three weeks. Impossible venues at Wisconsin and Penn State
masked the improvement in the Boilermaker play but Michigan
State found out that this team is still trying hard and still has a lot
of good players. This is the first losing team the Boilers have faced
since the second game of the season and we don’t see a way that
Illinois can win. The Illini haven’t come within 16 points of a Big
Ten win this season and probably won’t do it today. Boilers improve
on their 8-0 ATS home log against foes off BB losses.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MICHIGAN over Indiana by 21
After battling Minnesota for a half (IU led 14-7 at the break) the
Hoosiers folded under the enormous pressure of the Gopher
running game. Without team leader and best defender, John
Panozzo, Indiana is helpless in the middle of its defense. Expect
Michigan to exploit that weakness early and often. Indiana’s
string of 16 straight road losses in conference play will most likely
continue. However, Michigan is not a reliable home favorite with
just three covers in its last 11 appearances in that role, and they
do have OSU-know who on deck.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TENNESSEE over Memphis by 16
Memphis has responded well to adversity. In their last nine games
following BB SUATS losses, the Tigers have covered eight times.
In addition, the Cats are 7-1 ATS as DD road dogs against SEC
opposition and 13-2 ATS as dogs of +8 or more off a SU loss.
Tennessee is just the opposite. The Vols are 3-15 ATS at home off
a previous home loss and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 tries as home
chalk (8 losses in a row). It may not look like Memphis has a
chance here but Tennessee is very hospitable and flat as a pancake
right now. A Waffle House take.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NOTRE DAME over Navy by 17
The longest winning streak in college football probably won’t
end today. The last time Navy beat Notre Dame, Noah had just
finished putting the ark back in the garage. The Middies haven’t
won any but they sure have covered their share. The Tars have
covered 11 of the last 15, including seven in a row on this field.
The only caveat? With Notre Dame’s horrible 16-44 ATS mark as
favorite into revenge, we'll be hoisting anchor here, especially
considering Navy head coach Paul Johnson is the answer to this
week's Trivia Teaser on page 2.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MISSOURI over Baylor by 1
How could you blame the Bears for looking forward to this game?
After being manhandled by both Texas Tech and Texas, the Tiger
defense would be a welcome sight to anybody. Baylor won at
Iowa State and New Mexico won at Missouri and, in fact, has
cashed all five tickets on the road this season. Therefore, don’t
dismiss the possibility of a Baylor upset here. This just in: road
dogs off back to back shutout losses are 12-4 ATS, 10-2 ATS if the
last loss was by 27 or more points.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
KENT ST over Buffalo by 3
The first play from our Anti Puttin’ On The Stats column actually
lines us up on the Buffalo side in this game. What that idea is
telling us to do is take a team who has NEVER won a MAC road
game on the road in a win situation. Whew! Nevertheless, Buffalo
has played better than Kent State overall this season and, if the
Bulls can get a couple of scores, owns a defense capable of
shutting down the miserable Kent offense. It’s asking the Bison
to score a couple that bother us the most.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
VANDERBILT over Kentucky by 13
Finally, what seemed to be an endless diet of Georgia’s, LSU’s
and Florida’s, Vandy finally has an opponent it can beat. Kentucky
has covered five of the last 20 in the series and just two of the
last nine here. The Cats have lost 11 SEC road games in a row.
Although Vandy is 27-2 ATS in its last 29 SEC wins, the Commies
have only four in the last five years. The Music City kids are also
a sorry 2-7 ATS in their last nine as home chalk.
W MICHIGAN over C Michigan by 1
Western Michigan surprised us with its relatively easy win against
Eastern Michigan in Detroit last week. The Broncos quieted the
Emu offense while their own young QB continued his stellar play.
Central, meanwhile, was in an impossible scheduling spot. The
Chippewas had just won their biggest game in a decade and
were facing a Northern Illinois team off its most humiliating loss
in years. It’ll be interesting to see how this one pans out.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEBRASKA over Kansas St by 4
We couldn’t have been more surprised to see Kansas put all those
points up on Nebraska last week, but the Kansas State struggle
at Iowa State was foreseeable. The Wildcats had blown their
chance to take over the Big Twelve north with BB home losses to
Texas A&M and Colorado and were pretty much lifeless in the
early going at Ames. Nebraska should be pretty tired of getting
trashed by Kansas State (3 straight losses – all by 24 or more) but
we can’t back a team who no longer seems able to win.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
WISCONSIN over Iowa by 1
Iowa jumped out to a 24-7 lead at Northwestern and still led
27-14 in the middle of the fourth quarter. After forcing a Wildcat
punt, the Hawkeyes began their victory celebration. Bad move.
Northwestern came storming back behind it fearless leader,
QB Brett Basanez, and beat Iowa at the buzzer to knock the
Hawkeyes out of the Big Ten race. Now, Iowa has to go to
Wisconsin and face an inspired pack of Badgers who will be
playing their last game for beloved coach Barry Alvarez. Kirk
Ferentz has his hands full but when push comes to shove, fading
favorites with 435 yard defenses is much to our liking.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
COLORADO ST over San Diego St by 3
Up and down San Diego State has actually played better on the
road this season than it has at home. It used to be that trying to
beat Sonny Lubick at home at this point in the season wasn’t
worth the effort. But this is one of those trends that died, like
the Boston College trend described earlier. From 1998 to 2002,
CSU was 17-3 SU and 14-6 ATS after game seven. Since then, the
Rams are 4-11 ATS at that time of the year. San Diego State is
one of our Smart Box Plays and we’ll stick with the Aztecs here.
Visitor moves to 7-1 ATS in this series today.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TULSA over E Carolina by 8
As bad as East Carolina has been on the road (3-19 SU with no
wins in nine tries against winning teams), it’s almost impossible
to believe that the Pirates are 13-2 ATS in the first of BB road
game in their last 15 tries, and 4-0 ATS as road dogs this year. On
the other hand, Tulsa is a skimpy 9-21 ATS at home against
opponents who are off a SU loss. There isn’t a lot of difference
in the talent level of these two and we’re not sure that’s reflected
in the line.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tulane over RICE by 3
Tulane makes its ninth different stop on a nightmare season and,
although Rice doesn’t possess anywhere near the firepower of
Navy, the Owls are capable of winning this. Remember the
Buffalo dilemma? We couldn’t recommend a favorite that has
no wins. The Owls have lost 14 in a row. They are also a 'Puttin'
On The Stats' play-against as chalk. We're there.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
UTAH over New Mexico by 1
Another Smart Box play puts us in the pack with the Lobos. Not
a bad idea even without the Mensa Cube. New Mexico has been
a decent conference road dog of late, covering 18 of its last 25
in that role and 10 of its last 11 as a conference road dog with
revenge. We like the Lobo running game and Utah’s aversion to
covering the spread. Huge angle on Utah, though, will keep us
at bay.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GEORGIA over Auburn by 3
It’s too bad that these SEC juggernauts have to beat each other
to pieces. If they didn’t, there would be an SEC team in the
national title game every season. Auburn has controlled this
series, especially on Georgia’s home field. The War Eagle has
won and covered 10 of the last 13 between the hedges. Georgia
may still be without star QB Shockley (check his status) and it
would be frightening to Bulldog backers if they knew that
Georgia was 0-11 ATS in the last 11 games that the Dawgs failed
to score 21 or more. We'll check the injury list before further
committing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Florida St over CLEMSON by 1
Florida State is ravaged by injuries right now and we weren’t
sure they could win this game with a fully healthy squad. The
Seminoles have only covered one of the last six here and Clemson
is 6-0 ATS in its last six tries as an ACC dog. In 'Bowden Bowls',
Florida State has averaged 35 ppg but Clemson has allowed 35
or more just three times in the last three plus seasons. Clemson
has the edge here but we don’t want to cut ourselves on it.
more lawrence as are the above posts:
Nevada over N MEXICO ST by 10
Here’s yet another “can’t winâ€Â
lawrence:
Texas Tech over OKLAHOMA ST by 25
The Cowboys have been brutalized in Big Twelve play this season
and we don’t see any mercy on the Texas Tech bus this week. The
Red Raiders have covered 10 of the last 11 against the Pokes and
have enjoyed doing it. Oklahoma State has lost all five of its league
games this season giving up at least 34 in each one of them. OSU
probably won’t slow down the Raiders either.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MISSISSIPPI over Arkansas by 1
These two SEC dreadnoughts have nothing going for them at
all. Oh, Ole Miss might want to get revenge from last years 35-3
pasting at the hands of Matt Jones in Fayetteville. Or Arkansas
might want to win one for their lame duck coach. But, those are
just guesses and when you pick a team that can’t score (both
sides fit that description) you had better be sure.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
TCU over Unlv by 27
Knowing that Unlv has no wins and one fluke cover in its last
eight road games and that Tcu is 17-2 SU in its last 19 conference
home games against .750 or less opposition, sends us to the final
step in the handicapping process. The Frogs are 11-2 ATS in their
last 13 SU wins while Unlv is 4-28 ATS in its last 32 losses. Easy
ain’t it? Oh yeah, until you consider the Frogs are 0-5 ATS as
favorites of 27 or more points. Gulp.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ALABAMA over Lsu by 3
The home team in this series is 1-11 ATS in the last dozen meetings
and Lsu is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games. Losing Tommy Castille
hurt Alabama at Mississippi State. The Tide still won the game,
yes, but the running game would have been a lot better off with
the bruising fullback leading the way. Nonetheless, we can't
fathom the Elephants suiting up as home dogs. Afterall they
haven't allowed anyone to top 10 points in any of their last five
games and no team has scored more than 21 points on them this
season. LSU checks in at a putrid 1-29-1 ATS as favorites in games
in which they fail to score more than 21 points.Tide rolls.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Florida over S CAROLINA by 7
The game Steve Spurrier has been waiting for? Hogwash. Spurrier
doesn’t wait for games he might lose and he especially doesn’t
want to lose to Florida. Although the Gators are 1-8-1 ATS in
their last 10 tries as road chalk, South Carolina matches that with
its 0-8 ATS mark when playing with revenge off a SU dog win.
Since South Carolina has covered just nine of its last 30 home
games against winning teams, we won’t be home doggin’ here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Oregon over WASHINGTON ST by 6
Washington State just can’t stop anybody. The Cougars get tossed
around the field every week. They’ve challenged for long periods
of the game, they’ve led as late as the 14th minute of the 4th
quarter, and they’ve jumped out to a huge lead or two. The one
constant? They lost. The Cougars are still winless in Pac Ten play.
Oregon has considerably less firepower without starting QB
Clemens but the Ducks know how to win. Wazzu doesn’t.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HAWAII over Utah St by 21
Back at home, expect the Rainbows to take out their frustrations
on the frustrated Aggies. USU, looking for a win to pin next
season’s hopes on, frittered away the perfect chance against
Louisiana Tech last week. Now the dejected Ags head for the
Pineapple Patch where Hawaii has enough numbers to win three
games. 'Bows improve to 9-1-1 ATS in the first of BB hosters.
Sunday, November 13th
HOUSTON over Southern Miss by 1
Second game in five days for the Golden Eagles who will run
into a little more resistance here than they did on Tuesday against
Marshall, at least offensively. Houston can score a little and owns
a good enough defense to make Southern Miss work for its
scores. We’ll likely look at Houston as an underdog as USM is
1-6 ATS in LRG's (Last Road Games).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~
Miami Fla over WAKE FOREST by 14
Wake Forest saw any chance of a possible postseason berth goes
out the window last week. The immediate problem at hand for
the Hurricanes, off their monumental win at Virginia Tech last
week, will be zeroing in on this week’s re-scheduled contest
against the Demon Deacons. This game was originally scheduled
as a welcomed bye week for Miami. They were instead forced
re-schedule this contest when a game against Georgia Tech was
moved to November 19th due to Hurricane Katrina. The Canes
blew out the Deacons, 52-7, at home in the Orange Bowl last
year. Wake fields a team with no less than 24 Floridians on its
roster and will look to take advantage of a potential flat spot in
Miami’s itinerary.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FLORIDA ATLANTIC over N Texas by 10
North Texas played a whale of a game against LA Lafayette at
home but took its third straight home loss back to the locker
room. Earlier this season, the Mean Green went to Florida
International and won. No Sunshine state sweep here today.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MID TENN ST over LA Monroe by 6
The Blue Raiders scored nearly twice as many points against
Arkansas State as they had in the rest of their home games this
season combined. With MTSU off the huge win and Monroe off
a SU loss as a favorite, we'll take whatever the man is offering.
LA LAFAYETTE over Florida Int’l by 12
Last week’s Golden Panther win at LA Monroe was the first lined
road win in school history. Lay it.
ARKANSAS ST over Troy by 10
You gotta believe the Indians will come to play here after getting
lambasted in Murfreesboro. Troy has one road win in its last 18
tries against .500 or better opposition
lawrence pros:
4* best bet
TAMPA BAY over Washington by 13
We're bouncing right back with the Bucs, off that
embarrassing home loss last week. Tampa is 14-3-1 ATS at
home either taking or laying 3 or less points and also 11-4
ATS in the second of BB home games. Points will be at a
premium with these stalwart defenses facing each other. Still,
we'll fade the Skins off last Sunday night's war with the Eagles
as Washington is 1-6 ATS away off a win over Philly and 1-5
ATS after hosting the Green Birds. Bucs
~~~~~~~3 BEST BET
Minnesota over NY GIANTS by 3
Yes, we realize the Vikings four road losses this year were by
29, 20, 25 and 25 points and they came against teams who
are about the same, talent wise, as the Giants are. Our real
concern here is that the Giants have failed to cover six straight
times as chalk of -7 or more points. They also sport a porous
4.0 rush defense, one that melds well into Minny's 4.1 rush
offense. With the G-Men looking dead ahead to a
showdown with the Eagles, look for Minnesota to move to
8-2 ATS as a November dog. An upset is no surprise.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
5 BEST BET
Denver over OAKLAND by 14
Lots of Denver numbers in this game. Most important is
Denver’s 8-1-1 ATS mark in division revenge games and
Oakland’s 0-7 ATS log in its last seven as division home dogs.
Although the series is pretty even overall, the Broncos have
won 15 of the last 20 and are very aware that Oakland beat
them in Denver last November (as +11.5). If we can assume
that Denver will get even, it’s important to note that the
Broncos are 36-1-2 ATS in their last 39 division road wins.
With the Raiders in off a heartbreaking loss at Arrowhead
last week, we'll opt for the team with all the better numbers.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3* bb...wyoming,, vikes,, raiders under,,
4* bb...mich st..panthers over,,tampa bay
5* bb...ohio st..broncos..lions over....
Monday, November 14th lawrence
PHILADELPHIA over Dallas by 7
First you must understand that, in Dallas, you are talking about a
team who has won only three of its last 33 road games after the
sixth game of the season over the past five years. Then you must
realize that Philadelphia is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 home games. Put
those two numbers together, with 23-point Eagle revenge, and
you know which way we're looking. Especially with Andy Reid
8-3 SU & ATS under the Monday Night lights.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SEATTLE over St Louis by 10
Saint Louis has won the last three on this field but we’re not sure
the Rams can do it again. They are 4-12 ATS with same season
revenge, 5-17 ATS in November off a SU win and 8-22 ATS in their
last 30 road games. Seattle remembers the three losses to the
Rams very well and would like nothing better than to sweep their
division rivals under the carpet here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ATLANTA over Green Bay by 7
Atlanta, the league’s best rushing team, will almost certainly gain
more ground yards than the Packers in this game. Green Bay is
without its two top rushers with the third man running on one
leg. Over the last 16 years, Atlanta is 65-22 ATS when it gains
more rushing yards than its foe while Green Bay is 29-67-3 when
it gets outrushed. We never get real excited about going against
Favre as an underdog at a number of this size.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland by 14
Although the Steelers are almost unbeatable at home, they have
an annoying habit of winning but not covering in games like this.
The Burghers are 6-15 ATS at home as favorites of -7 or more,
including 2-8 ATS in their last ten at that price against division
rivals. With Charlie Batch running the show, Pittsburgh is likely to
get real conservative. We’re aware that Cleveland is 0-7 SU & 2-5
ATS in games off a win but we won’t lay numbers like this.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DETROIT over Arizona by 4
You could have up to nine different combinations of quarterbacks
playing in this game, not exactly a handicapper’s dream situation.
Detroit has been stumbling around with its QB shuffle all season
long, posting 21 or more in only one game. Since we don’t like
favorites who have trouble putting up points, we can eliminate
the Lions from consideration. We don’t want Arizona, either. The
Cards have won ONE road game in their last 24 tries. Detroit is
26-3 ATS in its last 29 SU wins.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
JACKSONVILLE over Baltimore by 4
Thanks to their overall defensive prowess, the Ravens were able
to keep the Pittsburgh game as close as they did without their two
top defenders. Because of that, we can’t discount them here.
However, Baltimore has lost 14 games in a row as a road underdog
and Jacksonville is 35-2-2 ATS in its last 39 SU wins. The Jaguars
haven’t lit up the scoreboard too many times this season and that
propensity for low-scoring games will keep us away.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~
INDIANAPOLIS over Houston by 14
You might think that 17-point favorites would have had an easy
time in the NFL, but the opposite is true. Since 1992, there have
been 20 favorites of that size in regular season play. Only six have
covered the spread. With the Colts coming off that Monday night
game against their nemesis, New England, and, with two tough
games ahead against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, laying this many
doesn’t seem prudent. Instead, we'll fade them in this same season
division rematch, where the Texans are 3-0 ATS in that role.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
CAROLINA over NY Jets by 8
When you have a team who has struggled to cover as a favorite
against a team that is a pretty good underdog, you can bet the
house that we won’t be shading the chalk. These teams fit that
profile. Carolina is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 tries as home favorites,
including three outright losses to the AFC teams in that mix. New
York is 7-2-1 ATS as road dogs against NFC foes. Still, the thought
of Brooks Bollinger taking to the road doesn't exactly excite us.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
New England over MIAMI by 1
Believe it or not, the Pats have revenge in this game and they
have flourished in that role, going 6-1 ATS in division vendettas.
Miami has foundered against division avengers with the exact
opposite (1-6 ATS) record. But they've flourished at home in this
series, going 6-1 ATS. We'll wait for further assessment once the
line has settled in.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CHICAGO over San Francisco by 10
Even with that five field goal win against Tampa, the Niners have
proven that they are the worst team in the league. In their two
true road games this season, the Gold Diggers were beaten 42-3
and 52-17. We don’t think the Bears can score that many, but the
Chicago defense is certainly capable of shutting down San
Francisco’s anemic attack. Bottom line here is you simply won't
make a living laying this kind of wood with a team like Chicago.
Steam Sheet
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT STEAMER
Computer whiz, Dan Tesinferno's #1 Play
3* ARKANSAS over Mississippi by 10
Here's a game that has one team (Arkansas) that runs for
252 yards per game while the other (Ole Miss) runs for just
95. Since Arkansas has outrushed every opponent on its
schedule except Auburn and Southern Cal, and Mississippi
has gained more ground yards than only one lined opponent
(Kentucky) this season, I'm going to make the assumption
that the Hogs will have more rushing yards at the end of the
game than Mississippi does. Now that the assumption is made,
I can quote that Mississippi is a perfect 0-20 against the spread
in conference home games when not an underdog of +3 or
more and when the opponent wins the ground game. The
Pigs can do it. Arkansas outran Alabama by 109 yards at
Alabama and Georgia by 164 at Georgia covering both games
easily. Arkansas wins one for its lame duck coach.
SOMETIMES YOU FEEL LIKE A NUTT 24-14!
A Salvo from Nicky "Boom Boom" Cannon
3* HAWAII over Utah St by 26
What a tough loss for Utah State last week. The Aggies pushed
Louisiana Tech all over the field and came up short in one of
the phoniest final scores of the season (see page 2). Now,
deflated and demoralized, they travel to the Pineapple Patch to
take on an enraged Rainbow Warrior who returns home after
back-to-back losses. For the record, Utah State is 3-27 SU in
its last 30 road games, including 1-10 ATS against opponents
who were off a loss and 2-11 ATS to sub .500 opposition.
Hawaii, meanwhile is 26-5 to the money in its last 31 SU wins
off a double digit loss. Numbers aside, we've seen this happen
too many times before to ignore it. A team plays their asses off
at home, gets beat by unfortunate circumstances, then goes
on the road against a high-scoring team and gets thumped. As
the Canadian said to the Honolulu hotel clerk.
ALOHA, EH 46-20!
Tom Scott's Number One Play
DAN TESINFERNO'S
NUTZ NOVEMBER
SEE THAT AD OVER THERE ☞
TOP GAME CLUB MEMBERS - LISTEN UP!
Dan's Football Game of the Year is NOT included in your
service. However, you can get this special games at a the Top
Game Club rate of $50 Pay-After-You-Win. You will receive
both halves of the November Steamroller parlay - no charge.
NOTE: Tom Scott's Big Ten Game of the Year is included
in your service and will be on the Saturday tape.
4* CLEMSON over Florida St by 9
The Smoker broke its losing streak last week by taking a
competent home underdog against a team off a bitter home
loss. We're going to do the same thing here. Florida State had
several chances to overtake NC State in the fourth quarter
last Saturday but couldn't get it done. Bobby Bowden still
isn't settled on a quarterback, and a roster of healthy starters
is declining geometrically. Clemson may be the best 5-4 team
in the country. A grand total of 14 points is all that is keeping
the Tigers from being 9-0. With a significant edge at QB, an
edge in motivation stemming from revenge for last year's 41-
22 loss to the Seminoles, the incentive to play your best in
your last home game, and an injury-decimated opponent, we'll
take our chances with Tiger Paw in this one.
IPTAY 23-14!
Blowout special
3* TEXAS over Kansas by 45
Yeah, I know. I'm really going out on a limb with this pick, a
truly BIG engine. Nevertheless, the pick has merit. If you could
have seen the Kansas kids after that Nebraska game and
watched the celebration that is still going on as we speak, you
would know that the Jayhawks aren't ready for Texas. Off an
emotional win over Missouri and the streak-ending rout of the
Cornhuskers, Kansas will be out of gas in Austin. Yes, the
Jayhawk defense is good but, when the offense can't stay on
the field, even good defenses wear down. And the Texas
defense is better. Put that together with a 210-yard better
offense and the Longhorns roll on.
BOVINE BUTT-WHIPPIN' 52-7!
Upset special
3* MARYLAND over N Carolina by 9
Other than the game against Utah in which Carolina caused
five turnovers and won by 14 while getting beat in total yardage,
the Tarheels have two home wins this year, both by two
points. That win over Boston College last week was a huge
game for UNC, a game the Heels had been thinking about
since losing to BC in the Continental Tire Bowl by 13 in their
home state. North Carolina has revenge here too, but Maryland
has the emotional edge. The Turtles had Florida State
beaten in Tallahassee before a pair of untimely turnovers did
them in and they've had two weeks to stew about it. Maryland
is good enough and angry enough to win this.
CHOCOLATE COVERED CARAMEL PECANS 31-22!
MOUNTAIN JACK
3* SEATTLE over St Louis by 16
I had Seattle the first time against the Rams this season and
I'm taking the Seahawks again. Other than the obvious
matchup problems the Rams have in this game, Seattle is on
fire right now, especially in the running game. The Hawks are
averaging 200 yards per game on the ground over the last
three weeks and don't appear to have a slow down scheduled
until February. Just for the record, Saint Louis is 11-39
against the spread on the road when it allows 100 or more
yards rushing and that includes a pathetic 2-15 money log
when the opponent is .600 or better. All during the off-season,
Seahawk players were reminded the Rams beat them three
times last season, one of which was a season-ending playoff
loss. This is the second payment on that debt.
SLEW 40-24!
cannon shot
3* CHICAGO over San Francisco by 23
I know it's unheard of to lay this many with the Bears and I also
know it's going to be an unpopular play. I've already read three
different newsletters who have the Forty Niners as a featured
selection. They might be right, but I fail to see the logic in the
pick. San Francisco has been beaten 42-3 and 52-17 in its
only two true road games this season. Those losses came at the
hands of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins.
In their only other trip away from the Gate, the Niners lost 31-
14 to the Arizona Cardinals. Combining the offensive and
defensive scoring averages of those three teams against
Chicago's, finds the Bears up more than a full touchdown in
net scoring. So tell me again, why is San Francisco going to
win?
YOGI, PADDINGTON AND SMOKEY 29-6!
Dan's steamer
3* CHICAGO over San Francisco by 23
I know it's unheard of to lay this many with the Bears and I also
know it's going to be an unpopular play. I've already read three
different newsletters who have the Forty Niners as a featured
selection. They might be right, but I fail to see the logic in the
pick. San Francisco has been beaten 42-3 and 52-17 in its
only two true road games this season. Those losses came at the
hands of the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins.
In their only other trip away from the Gate, the Niners lost 31-
14 to the Arizona Cardinals. Combining the offensive and
defensive scoring averages of those three teams against
Chicago's, finds the Bears up more than a full touchdown in
net scoring. So tell me again, why is San Francisco going to
win?
Kevin Oneil's The Max
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College Football
Thursday, November 10, 2005
WACky Shootout
Boise State (+7½) over @Fresno
This pointspread doesn’t match the history of this series. Last year Boise ripped Fresno on the Smurf Turf 33-16, outgaining the Bulldogs by 200 yards. The previous year Boise won at Fresno by 14. In 2002 Boise won at home 67-21 and Boise won outright as a 16-point dog in Fresno in 2001. Now Fresno is experienced and Boise not as much, but neither team towers over the other, though Fresno has the better defense.
When you look at common opponents and the results of those games, Fresno has at best a slight edge. There are a lot of late season trends favoring Fresno, particularly at home, but that is largely the result of playing weak sisters in November every year. They got blasted by Boise at home 31-17 on November 16, 2003 in a game that wasn’t really that close (21-0 Boise lead, Fresno 4th quarter punt return made the score respectable).
This is an important game and Fresno will be motivated. But you have to wonder if Fresno may have next week’s matchup against USC on their mind (how long has Pat Hill been dreaming about that game?). The media up in Fresno has been focused on the shot against the Trojans for months, while Boise has no distractions, as they have Idaho on deck. This game could go either way, and the healthy points are worth taking with a Boise team that has won 31 straight conference games. Fresno State by only 1.
Saturday, November 12, 2005
Maryland (+3) over @North Carolina
We had the Tar Heels in this space against Boston College and UNC was able to take out an Eagle team with an ice-cold quarterback that was still shell-shocked from their blowout loss at Virginia Tech the week before. But a close look at the game shows that the Heels really didn’t do a whole heck of a lot positive in that encounter. They benefited from returning the opening kickoff for a TD and they passed the ball fairly well. But the running game was almost non-existent, with only 99 yards on 40 carries (which includes only a single sack for 9 yards.) UNC didn’t score an offensive TD.
While UNC earned an unimpressive win over a flat opponent, Maryland was resting up. With both of these teams 4-4 overall this game is nearly a must win for each team’s bowl aspirations. While these two clubs didn’t match up last season, under their respective coaches, they have played in the three previous years before that. Those three matchups resulted in Maryland wins by 23-7 in 2001, 59-7 in 2002, and 59-17 in 2003. While the combined 141-31 doesn’t reflect their current abilities, it provides a glimpse at a coaching edge for Maryland. The Terps have worn down late in games but North Carolina lacks the running game that has hurt Maryland late in some of their losses.
While it is usually best to play games in this publication early, the suspensions of wide receivers Fenner and Weatherly for their part in a bar fight may drive the line up in this game so it may be best to wait. But those two have combined for only 32 of the team’s 146 completions, not enough to keep us off what we consider to be a pretty good spot for the Terrapins against an inconsistent North Carolina team off a suspect win. Maryland by 3.
Disappointed Duo
Iowa (+3) over @Wisconsin
In this matchup of teams off of disappointing losses, we expect Iowa to respond better. The Hawkeyes blew a 24-7 halftime lead and then gave up a pair of TD’s in the games closing minutes to lose at Northwestern. Northwestern drove 77 yards in 1 minute, 17 seconds. They recovered an on-side kick. and drove 47 yards in 1:28 for the winning touchdown. The Hawkeyes can expect a hard, intense week of practice after blowing leads in consecutive games (OT loss to Michigan prior to a week off then Saturday’s Northwestern loss).
Although it wasn’t a late phone play, we though the Badgers would find a way to piece together a “stick closeâ€Â
Dunkel Index - Thursday
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dunkel Index -- NBA+NCAA BB+NHL+NCAA F+NFL
NBA
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10
L.A. Clippers 113.5 (6) Atlanta* 107.5
Total Points: 189 1/2
Miami* 121.5 (8) Houston 113.7
Total Points: 170 1/2
Detroit 122.1 (1) Phoenix* 121.1
Total Points: 200 1/2
NCAA Basketball
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10
Bowling Green 53.4 (9) Western Carolina 44.9
Virginia Tech* 66.4 (22 1/2) Radford 43.8
George Mason 56.9 (4) UC-Irvine 53.2
Wake Forest* 77.1 (34) Mississippi Valley State 43.2
Portland 54.5 (1 1/2) Georgia Southern 53.0
Texas Tech* 72.2 (26) San Jose State 46.3
Florida* 77.7 (23) Albany 54.8
St. Peter's 52.0 (1 1/2) Oakland 50.6
NHL
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10
Philadelphia* 13.61 (3) New York Islanders 10.52
Total Goals: 7
Ottawa 13.98 (2 1/2) Boston* 11.49
Total Goals: 7 1/2
New York Rangers 11.24 (1) Tampa Bay* 10.29
Total Goals: 6
Montreal 12.63 (2) Pittsburgh* 10.52
Total Goals: 6 1/2
Dallas 11.66 (1/2) Nashville* 11.27
Total Goals: 6
Chicago 9.47 (1/2) St. Louis* 9.06
Total Goals: 7
Phoenix* 11.65 (1/2) Calgary 11.30
Total Goals: 5
Vancouver* 12.21 (1/2) Colorado 12.04
Total Goals: 6 1/2
NCAA Football
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10
Fresno State* 102.9 (7) Boise State 96.1
Total Points: 61 1/2
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11
Louisville* 105.1 (22) Rutgers 83.3
Total Points: 69 1/2
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 12
South Florida 87.3 (9 1/2) Syracuse* 77.8
Total Points: 41
Oklahoma* 98.1 (12 1/2) Texas A&M 85.7
Total Points: 58
Boston College* 97.7 (4) North Carolina State 93.4
Total Points: 38 1/2
North Carolina* 96.3 (5 1/2) Maryland 90.9
Total Points: 45
Pittsburgh* 90.5 (12) Connecticut 78.5
Total Points: 45
Virginia* 99.5 (3) Georgia Tech 96.4
Total Points: 41 1/2
Ohio State* 112.1 (15) Northwestern 97.2
Total Points: 53
Purdue* 97.9 (23) Illinois 74.8
Total Points: 60 1/2
Michigan* 107.3 (26 1/2) Indiana 80.9
Total Points: 50 1/2
Tennessee* 100.1 (21) Memphis 79.1
Total Points: 41
Notre Dame* 112.8 (27) Navy 85.8
Total Points: 65
Missouri* 89.9 (8 1/2) Baylor 81.4
Total Points: 52 1/2
Kent* 68.1 (8 1/2) Buffalo 59.6
Total Points: 43 1/2
Vanderbilt* 89.8 (10) Kentucky 80.1
Total Points: 55
Western Michigan* 80.5 (1) Central Michigan 80.0
Total Points: 58
Nebraska* 89.6 (3 1/2) Kansas State 86.0
Total Points: 48 1/2
Minnesota* 101.7 (6 1/2) Michigan State 95.3
Total Points: 68
Wisconsin* 99.7 (1) Iowa 98.6
Total Points: 56 1/2
Colorado State* 90.7 (6) San Diego State 84.5
Total Points: 55
Tulsa* 88.5 (13) East Carolina 75.3
Total Points: 54 1/2
BYU 92.1 (9) Wyoming* 83.1
Total Points: 56 1/2
Tulane 70.6 (1) Rice* 69.8
Total Points: 58
Utah* 91.5 (4) New Mexico 87.3
Total Points: 57 1/2
Georgia* 108.0 (2 1/2) Auburn 105.4
Total Points: 43
Clemson* 98.7 (1) Florida State 97.6
Total Points: 48 1/2
Nevada 76.6 (10) New Mexico State* 66.4
Total Points: 61
UAB* 89.5 (8) Central Florida 81.7
Total Points: 51 1/2
Texas* 123.6 (34) Kansas 89.4
Total Points: 56
Louisiana Tech 81.4 (14) Idaho* 67.7
Total Points: 54 1/2
Eastern Michigan* 74.9 (3 1/2) Ball State 71.5
Total Points: 57
Arizona* 96.6 (15) Washington 81.4
Total Points: 53
USC 118.6 (21) California* 97.7
Total Points: 70
Colorado 102.2 (1 1/2) Iowa State* 100.6
Total Points: 44 1/2
UCLA* 96.9 (1) Arizona State 96.1
Total Points: 72 1/2
Oregon State* 91.8 (2) Stanford 89.9
Total Points: 63
Texas Tech 106.3 (27) Oklahoma State* 79.6
Total Points: 63
Arkansas 89.2 (0) Mississippi* 88.9
Total Points: 38
TCU* 100.1 (33) UNLV 67.0
Total Points: 54
LSU 107.1 (2 1/2) Alabama* 104.5
Total Points: 36
Florida 98.0 (2 1/2) South Carolina* 95.6
Total Points: 43 1/2
Oregon 99.4 (8) Washington State* 91.5
Total Points: 68 1/2
Hawaii* 87.6 (18 1/2) Utah State 69.2
Total Points: 54
Miami, FL 110.8 (17) Wake Forest* 93.5
Total Points: 41 1/2
Florida Atlantic* 67.2 (3 1/2) North Texas 63.6
Total Points: 42
Middle Tennessee State* 19.5 (11 1/2) UL-Monroe 68.1
Total Points: 38
UL-Lafayette* 70.5 (8) Florida International 62.7
Total Points: 50 1/2
Arkansas State* 69.6 (3) Troy State 66.9
Total Points: 46 1/2
NFL
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13
Kansas City 129.3 (2) Buffalo* 127.4
Total Points: 44 1/2
Washington 127.5 (1) Tampa Bay* 126.6
Total Points: 30 1/2
New England 128.5 (0) Miami* 128.1
Total Points: 44
Chicago* 129.3 (13) San Francisco 116.4
Total Points: 38
New York Giants* 134.8 (12) Minnesota 122.8
Total Points: 46
Detroit* 125.3 (4) Arizona 121.5
Total Points: 40
Jacksonville* 131.8 (7) Baltimore 124.7
Total Points: 26
Indianapolis* 140.9 (21) Houston 120.0
Total Points: 40 1/2
Carolina* 135.8 (12) New York Jets 124.0
Total Points: 44 1/2
Denver 134.5 (3) Oakland* 131.4
Total Points: 47 1/2
Seattle* 134.2 (8 1/2) St. Louis 125.7
Total Points: 53 1/2
Atlanta* 134.1 (11) Green Bay 122.9
Total Points: 44
Pittsburgh* 134.9 (12 1/2) Cleveland 122.5
Total Points: 30 1/2
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14
Dallas 131.1 (1) Philadelphia* 130.0
Total Points: 44 1/2
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