Uab over MEMPHIS by 1
Last week, while reading Tom Scott’s Steam Sheet, we noticed his
weekly trivia question: Which running back passed Archie Griffin,
LaDanian Tomlinson and Herschel Walker on the NCAA’s career
rushing list LAST WEEK.? The answer was DeAngelo Williams, an
incredible weapon. UAB has an incredible weapon of its own in
Fat Hackney and the Blazers are 15-4 ATS as dogs off a loss and
11-0 ATS in those 19 games if the foe is off a win as Memphis is.
We like the Fat Man as an underdog.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Toledo over OHIO U by 15
Again, disparate results from last week might get us a playable
number with the Rockets. Off the shocking loss at Central Michigan
last week, Toledo will have fire in its eyes when it rolls into Athens.
Ohio has certainly played better at home than it has on the road
and the Bobbies have beaten some decent teams here in the past
few years. Still, we think Toledo can win and when the Rockets
win they cover. How about 27-2 ATS in the last 29!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PURDUE over Michigan St by 1
It was funny to us that Michigan State came out as a polished
efficient offensive machine against Indiana one week after looking
like the most disorganized, undisciplined and nonfunctional
offense in the world against Northwestern. MSU won’t have an
easy time here. Purdue, standing at 0-8 ATS on the season and in
the throes of a six-game losing streak, is actually playing better
now than it has all season. The Spartans have covered just one of
their last seven road games and don’t have the defense to improve
on that record any time soon. Due this or leave it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RUTGERS over S Florida by 4
Rutgers got even with Navy for a 54-21 whipping it took last season
and has made itself bowl eligible for its first bowl game since the
1978 Garden State Bowl. The Knights have no such motivational
advantage here and will have to earn this win over the capable
Bulls. We know that Rutgers is 7-13 ATS at home off a SU win and
that South Florida is 8-2 ATS after scoring 17 or less. Bulls may be
rusty off two weeks of rest.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Boston College over N CAROLINA by 10
North Carolina had visions of pulling another monumental upset
over Miami of Florida last week but the Hurricanes, down 16-7,
outscored the Tar Heels 27-0 over the last two and a half quarters
and put to sleep any UNC dreams of ACC glory. That won’t stop
the Heels from being excited here. BC beat Carolina in a bowl
game last season to get its first ACC win and Carolina has been
waiting almost a year to get even. The problem, though, is Tom
O'Brien is the answer to this week's Trivia Teaser (see page 2) and
that spells trouble for the Heels. Don't like UNC's 1-6 ATS log in
revengers against a foe off a loss, either.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
VIRGINIA over Temple by 34
Another barbecuing for the Owls. No wonder Bobby Wallace quit.
We would, too, if we had to face the schedule he has this season.
Once again, we remind you that disinterested favorites are not
our cup of coffee (we have no tea in our office). With Georgia
Tech, Virginia Tech and Miami Florida next on the Cavalier
schedule, we’re going to step out on a limb and say that Virginia
is not the least bit interested in this. Neither are we.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
W VIRGINIA over Connecticut by 16
Even though West Virginia is 0-6 ATS at home off BB SU wins
against an opponent off a SU loss and just 2-10 ATS in its last 12
tries as a home favorite, we’re not talking up UConn here. Injuries
have devastated the Husky offense and third-string quarterbacks
don’t have much success in Morgantown. Connecticut is 2-11-3 ATS
when allowing 24 or more, a number well within West Virginia’s
reach. WVU sees the BCS as a real possibility.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LOUISVILLE over Pittsburgh by 21
Pittsburgh has improved after a dismal start, we won’t question
that. We will question the opposition against which that
improvement was measured. The Panthers have won four of their
last five, but their last four victims couldn’t put an All-Star team
together that could beat Louisville at Papa John stadium. Dog
lovers beware. Louisville is 9-0 SU & ATS, all as favorites of more
than nine points, in its last nine home games by an average winning
margin of more than 40 points per game!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Open or reload a Marc Lawrence
account – You’ll receive a 25%
bonus which can be placed
Minnesota over INDIANA by 17
Indiana is finding out that wins over Kentucky, Central Michigan,
Illinois and Nicholls State do not a season make. The Hoosiers left
that quartet at 4-0 and looking at their first bowl game in a long
time. Four games against real teams have left the Hoosiers at 4-4
and wondering if they can beat anybody. Minnesota is better
than any Minnesota team in the last decade, is off BB losses – and
playing with humiliating revenge from an ‘04 loss here as 17-pt
favorites. The Gophers could run Indiana right into the ground.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NORTHWESTERN over Iowa by 3
Iowa better bring about 35 (points, that is) with them when they
walk into Dyche Stadium because Northwestern can score and
score plenty against anybody. Although Iowa is 25-1-1 ATS in its
last 27 SU road wins, we simply can’t count on a Hawkeye win.
The reason? Iowa is 6-20 SU in its last 26 road games against
teams who were greater than .600. The Hawks are also 15-58 ATS
in their last 73 games when allowing 28 or more.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GEORGIA TECH over Wake Forest by 12
While Wake Forest was taking the week off at Duke, Georgia Tech
was in a battle for its life at home against Clemson. Tech is a lowly
1-7-1 ATS in its last nine home games and Wake Forest is 14-6 ATS
in its last 20 as road dogs. Still, we like the edge that Tech enjoys
on the defensive side and the edge Tech enjoys at the quarterback
position. Wake’s only two conference road wins in its last 14 chances
came at Duke and the Bumblebees are 40-9 ATS in their last 49
wins off a win. Demons are 1-10 ATS in road finales and haven't
won BB conference road games in four years. It won't happen here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FLORIDA over Vanderbilt by 16
Huge win for Florida over Georgia last week may leave the Gators
a little flat for a capable Vanderbilt team, Vandy is 6-1 ATS in
their last seven appearances as a road underdog and Florida is 10-
20-2 ATS in its last 32 games as a favorite. The experts can say
what they want, but we would rather have Jay Cutler leading our
team than Chris Leak. Unfortunately for Vandy, Florida has more
guys to stop Cutler than the Commies do to stop the Leak.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CLEMSON over Duke by 31
Clemson is, without question, the master of close losses. The Tigers
did it again last week, falling by one at Georgia Tech and they
should be in an extremely aggravated mood here. That’s not good
for a Duke team that has yet to cover the spread this season. The
Blue Devils have allowed at least 35 points in each of their five
ACC games this season and have allowed an average of 45 points
in those games. Just so you know, Clemson is 26-7 ATS when it
scores 35 or more at home and Duke is 3-20 ATS in its last 23 road
games when allowing 35 or more.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
W Michigan over E MICHIGAN by 6
Wow! This Tim Hiller kid has electrified the Western Michigan
offense and if Matt Bohnet isn’t back for Eastern, the kid might
just notch his third straight win. Neither team has numbers worth
considering but, Tom Scott, our MAC expert, has this to say - If
Bohnet plays and is able to take some of the pressure off the
running game, Anthony Sherril will have a huge day for the Eagles.
We’ll check Bohnet’s status before we move on this.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
N Illinois over C MICHIGAN by 4
We can’t believe the collapse of Northern Illinois against Ball State.
We, like many others, believed that the Huskies had a ticket to
the MAC Championship and were a force to be reckoned with in
the post season. Needless to say, there are doubts. The situation
this week defines line value. Northern is off a SU loss as a FOUR
TOUCHDOWN favorite. Central Michigan just won the biggest
game in Mount Pleasant in decades. Could it be that NIU is laying
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~
Bowling Green over KENT ST by 14
Playing without Omar Jacobs hasn’t helped Bowling Green. In fact,
it has destroyed its bowl chances barring a MAC title game win.
However, as Kent has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, you
don’t need Omar Jacobs to beat the Golden Flashes. Throw out
all the Kent numbers. The Flashes were gifted by the presence of
Joshua Cribbs for the previous four years. He’s gone and so is Kent’s
offense. If Jacobs is available, we’ll look as the not so Golden guys
are 0-6 ATS as home dogs of 13 or less against a foe off a win.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAVY over Tulane by 16
Navy has too many numbers to ignore going into this game. The
Middies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 revenge games, and 7-3-1 ATS
in their last 11 home games. They are also 38-3 ATS in victories
when playing off a loss. That Navy revenge, by the way, would be
for its worst loss (42-10) in its last 31 games. It isn’t fair what has
happened to the homeless Green Wave and we feel sorry for the
team, the coaches and the program. But we feel no remorse for
the bookmakers who sell this game. We'll buy the swabbies.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~
ARKANSAS over S Carolina by 10
Houston Nutt is definitely on the hot seat in Fayetteville. Somehow,
by hook or by crook, he has to get his Razorbacks into the win
column and he has to do it this week. Hog backers don’t care that
Nutt’s five losses this year came against team’s who were
undefeated when Arkansas played them. They want wins. With
his 6-1 ATS mark in this series and 7-1 ATS log in games off BB
defeats, Nutt has a chance to get a “Wâ€Â
