28 replies

1. 0 likes

   cokin

   louisville, gtech, penn st

   ron fraizer

   bc, gtech, south carolina, tcu

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 1 2005 3:27pm
2. 0 likes

   Winning Points

   NFL

   Best Bets - Chiefs, Eagles

   Preferred - Packers, 49ers

   College

   Best Bets - Penn St., Army

   Preferred - Vandy, Colorado, Arkansas, Nevada

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 2 2005 6:42pm
3. 0 likes

   Pointwise Sports

   NFL

   2 - Jaguars

   3 - Chiefs

   4 - Jets, Bucs

   5 - Saints

   College

   1 - Penn St., Texas Tech

   2 - Louisville

   3 - Northwestern

   4 - NC St., Colorado

   5 - Kansas, Ohio St.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 2 2005 6:43pm
4. 0 likes

   The Gold Sheet

   NFL Key Releases

   Chargers, Titans, Under Bucs

   College Key Releases

   Central Michigan, Notre Dame, Missouri

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 2 2005 6:43pm
5. 0 likes

   Confidential Kick-Off!!

   The Gold Sheet!!

   America's Handicapping

   Leaders For 48 Seasons!

   CKO Vol. 44 November 3-7, 2005 No. 10

   11 *ARIZONA over Ucla

   Late Score Forecast:

   *ARIZONA 31 - Ucla 27

   Undefeated UCLA moving up in BCS rankings. And CKO insiders report players

   feeling quite proud of themselves for surprisingly keeping pace with

   arch-rival USC in 2005 and bringing some national attention back to Westwood.

   However, Bruins playing a dangerous game on the Pac-10 road, falling behind

   Washington State 21-0 and trailing Stanford 24-3 with 6.5 mins. to play

   before rallying to eke out OT wins in both contests. The heady wine of those

   victories has somewhat clouded the fact that the Bruins were out-rushed

   470-257 in those two contests. Improving Arizona rushed for 212 yds. in its

   last home game vs. the rugged Oregon DL, and UCLA has been plagued by

   injuries in its front seven all season. Wildcats' true frosh QB Tuitama has

   lived up to his blue-chip billing, passing for 517 yds. with 4 TDs vs. 1 int.

   in less than 8 Qs the last two games.

   10 *EASTERN MICHIGAN over W.Michigan

   Late Score Forecast:

   *EASTERN MICHIGAN 34-Western Michigan 27

   Eager to take points with Eastern Michigan now that price is being inflated

   by Western Michigan's back-to-back wins over Bowling Green (lost star QB Omar

   Jacobs to injury in 1st Q) & struggling Kent State (lost all 7 vs. Div. I-A

   foes so far). Things won't come nearly so easy for Broncos against capable

   Eagles. WMU defense still has plenty of holes. No problem if EMU sr. QB

   Matt Bohnet can't make post. RS frosh Tyler Jones (6-1, 198) nearly led

   Eagles to upset of MAC power Miami-Ohio on Oct. 22 when Bohnet sat out with

   an ankle injury. Jones had 2 TD passes and also ran for 107 yards & another

   score in 24-23 loss to RedHawks. Either QB will have lots of success vs.

   Bronc defense permitting 296 ypg passing. And sr. RB Anthony Sherrell (107

   YR in last game), who was first team all-MAC in 2003, making solid

   contribution again after getting out of HC Jeff Genyk's doghouse. Veteran

   EMU 2ndary (only 199 ypg passing) has what it takes to cool off WMU true

   frosh QB Tim Hiller. No shock if Eagles pull off upset of rival Broncs at

   nearby Ford Field.

   10 SOUTH CAROLINA over *Arkansas

   Late Score Forecast:

   SOUTH CAROLINA 23 - *Arkansas 17

   Long-time SEC scouts are rather amazed (so are we) that oddsmakers have

   still-rebuilding, 2-5 Arkansas favored at all (Hogs early 4.5-fav.) vs. a

   revitalized 5-3 South Carolina squad that needs just one more victory to

   become bowl eligible. With tougher challenges vs. SEC contender Florida &

   dangerous rival Clemson on horizon, shrewd USC HC Steve Spurrier is placing

   extra importance on this clash, which should remove any doubt of a serious

   letdown following impressive Tennessee upset. After facing several fierce

   SEC pass rushes, 'Cocks poised, accurate QB Mitchell (64%) and his young,

   skillful WRs will hook up regularly vs. Arkansas 2ndary allowing 236 ypg

   passing, with 16 TDs and just 7 ints. Hogs get virtually no pass rush from

   a non-pressuring DL. Firmly believe competent 'Cocks (just 3.9 ypc) able to

   effectively put 8-9 in box against run-oriented Arkansas offense and force

   unpolished, 6-2 soph QB R. Johnson (ranked 91st; only 5 TDs, 6 ints.) to make

   plays he hasn't made as of yet. Highly-motivated, better-passing and

   smartly-coached Carolina won't need oddmakers help.

   10 TULSA over *Utep

   Late Score Forecast:

   TULSA 31 - *Utep 28

   C-USA scouts are surprised by the generous points the oddsmaker is giving

   Tulsa this week, as Golden Hurricane has everything necessary to spring an

   upset at the Sun Bowl. They have the coaching. Steve Kragthorpe, a creative

   former o.c. at Texas A&M and QB coach with the NFL's Buffalo Bills, is in his

   3rd season at helm, and many college football observers believe he'll be

   offered a higher-profile job soon. They have the offense. Versatile soph QB

   Paul Smith leads a balanced attack that features tough-to-cover 6-2, 232 sr.

   TE/WR Garrett Mills (58 catches & 7 TDs TY). Defense? Tulsa's underrated

   stop unit (13 ints., only 3 TDP) matches up well against UTEP's mistake-prone

   jr. QB Jordan Palmer (40 career ints.). Add in an extra week to prepare and

   visitor's big-play capability on special teams (sr. WR Ashlan Davis has 6

   kick return TDs last 1+ seasons!), and we might just be asking the sportsbook

   to show us the money...line, that is.

   10 *MINNESOTA over Detroit

   Late Score Forecast:

   *MINNESOTA 23 - Detroit 13

   (Sunday, November 6)

   Expect Minnesota, which has been humiliated on and off the field recently, to

   gather its pride and bounce back with a focused, emotional effort returning

   home. Vikings lost QB Dante Culpepper with a knee injury, but Brad Johnson

   is an experienced, dependable, productive backup who is more than capable of

   directing the offense. Conversely, Detroit QB Jeff Garcia hasn't been able

   to generate much of an attack since returning from injury, as he hasn't

   thrown a TD pass in his two starts, his passer rating is at a career-low, and

   the Lions have scored just 13 points in each game. Detroit ranks 29th in the

   NFL in total offense, and the Lions remain banged up in the receiving corps

   despite the return of WR Charles Rogers. Minnesota has played its best ball

   at home, with both of the Vikings' SU & pointspread wins coming at the

   Metrodome. The game is sold out, and with a chance to divert media attention

   away from "cruise-gate" and the poor effort at Carolina, anticipate Vikings

   playing one of their best games of the season.

   TOTALS: UNDER (34) in Chicago-New Orleans game (at Baton Rouge)-Bears "under"

   6 of 7 TY; Saints offense struggling without Deuce...OVER (46) in

   Indianapolis-New England game-Pats defense crippled in back seven, but champs

   will go down firing.

   HONORABLE MENTION: BALL STATE (+2) vs. Akron-Cardinal QB Joey Lynch torched

   Northern Illinois on the road last week; defense stuffed NIU ground

   game...OHIO STATE (-34.5) vs. Illinois-Illini defense a sieve; OSU now has

   the speed & depth to repeatedly exploit the situation...PENN STATE (-10.5)

   vs. Wisconsin-Masterful rebuilding job by UW's Barry Alvarez TY, but defense

   very vulnerable; Nittany Lions stronger across the board (except at RB),

   especially on "D."...ALABAMA (-17) at Mississippi State-Total mismatch at QB;

   'Bama has two big games on tap, but this is an important SEC West contest,

   and Crimson Tide has BCS aspirations...INDIANAPOLIS (-3) at New

   England-Rested Indy is strong in all the key areas needed to finally overtake

   the wounded Pats.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 2 2005 6:43pm
6. 0 likes

   The Harmon Forecast

   Game of the Week

   *Virginia Tech 27, Miami (Fla.) 20

   Since 1995, Virginia Tech has won seven of the past 10 meetings, including last year's 16-10 victory in Miami. The last time the two met in Blacksburg (2003), Virginia Tech won 31-7.

   Week of Nov. 5

   Major Colleges - Div. I-A

   *Air Force 23 Army 17

   Alabama 22 *Mississippi State 13

   Akron 23 *Ball State 6

   Arizona State 31 *Washington State 28

   Auburn 31 *Kentucky 14

   *Boise State 44 New Mexico State 10

   Boston College 24 *North Carolina 14

   Bowling Green 33 *Kent State 16

   Brigham Young 26 *UNLV 20

   *Clemson 28 Duke 10

   *Colorado 24 Missouri 23

   *Eastern Michigan 27 Western Michigan 20

   *Florida 24 Vanderbilt 12

   *Florida State 31 North Carolina State 17

   *Fresno State 33 San Jose State 14

   *Georgia Tech 25 Wake Forest 17

   Houston 24 *Central Florida 23

   Iowa 31 *Northwestern 30

   Kansas State 21 *Iowa State 20

   Louisiana-Monroe 22 *Florida International 19

   Louisiana Tech 27 *Utah State 7

   *Louisville 38 Pittsburgh 21

   *LSU 36 Appalachian State 7

   *Miami (Ohio) 31 Buffalo 7

   Michigan State 33 *Purdue 31

   *Middle Tennessee 24 Arkansas State 21

   Minnesota 34 *Indiana 20

   *Memphis 23 UAB 20

   Nebraska 23 *Kansas 14

   *Nevada 30 Hawaii 28

   *Navy 20 Tulane 6

   Northern Illinois 27 *Central Michigan 23

   *North Texas 17 La.-Lafayette 14

   *Notre Dame 27 Tennessee 17

   *Ohio State 29 Illinois 10

   *Oregon 31 California 27

   Oregon State 34 *Washington 21

   *Penn State 31 Wisconsin 24

   *Rutgers 20 South Florida 17

   South Carolina 28 *Arkansas 13

   *Southern California 38 Stanford 16

   *Southern Methodist 23 Rice 14

   *TCU 27 Colorado State 21

   Texas 33 *Baylor 17

   *Texas-El Paso 26 Tulsa 20

   *Texas Tech 35 Texas A&M 28

   Toledo 31 *Ohio 17

   *Troy 17 Florida Atlantic 14

   UCLA 44 *Arizona 14

   *Virginia 34 Temple 7

   *Virginia Tech 27 Miami (Fla.) 20

   *West Virginia 21 Connecticut 14

   Wyoming 26 *Utah 24

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 2 2005 6:44pm
7. 0 likes

   Below are the projections for the NCAA IA football games through

   the games of 11-5-2005. Games against non-IA teams are excluded.

   The favorite is listed first with the projected margin of victory

   (i.e., the line) in parenthesis. 'TP' represents the total number of

   points expected to be scored in the game and 'Odds' represents the odds

   of the favorite winning straight-up (not against-the-spread). Due to

   time constraints, I will not be tracking perfomance of the computer

   against actual odds this season.

   Tuesday, November 1, 2005

   Memphis (-9.5) vs. Alabama-Birmingham (TP=47 Odds=.667)

   Wednesday, November 2, 2005

   West Virginia (-15) vs. Connecticut (TP=47 Odds=.754)

   Thursday, November 3, 2005

   Louisville (-12.5) vs. Pittsburgh (TP=60 Odds=.672)

   Friday, November 4, 2005

   Toledo (-7.5) @ Ohio (TP=52 Odds=.619)

   Saturday, November 5, 2005

   Texas (-28.5) @ Baylor (TP=52 Odds=.893)

   Virginia Tech (-16) vs. Miami (Florida) (TP=44 Odds=.785)

   Southern California (-37.5) vs. Stanford (TP=64 Odds=.910)

   Penn State (-11) vs. Wisconsin (TP=57 Odds=.664)

   Alabama (-20) @ Mississippi State (TP=36 Odds=.897)

   Ohio State (-31.5) vs. Illinois (TP=53 Odds=.910)

   UCLA (-23) @ Arizona (TP=58 Odds=.808)

   Florida State (-17.5) vs. North Carolina State (TP=47 Odds=.791)

   Texas Christian (-14.5) vs. Colorado State (TP=56 Odds=.713)

   Texas Tech (-17) vs. Texas A&M (TP=58 Odds=.737)

   Oregon (-12) vs. California (TP=59 Odds=.670)

   Florida (-17) vs. Vanderbilt (TP=45 Odds=.795)

   Notre Dame (-11) vs. Tennessee (TP=48 Odds=.693)

   Colorado (-13) vs. Missouri (TP=54 Odds=.698)

   Boston College (-9) @ North Carolina (TP=45 Odds=.673)

   Auburn (-1 @ Kentucky (TP=46 Odds=.805)

   Minnesota (-10.5) @ Indiana (TP=58 Odds=.651)

   Northwestern (-7) vs. Iowa (TP=56 Odds=.606)

   Fresno State (-33.5) vs. San Jose State (TP=58 Odds=.907)

   Michigan State (-7) @ Purdue (TP=63 Odds=.592)

   Georgia Tech (-9.5) vs. Wake Forest (TP=46 Odds=.674)

   Nebraska (-3.5) @ Kansas (TP=41 Odds=.571)

   Arizona State (-5) @ Washington State (TP=68 Odds=.561)

   Boise State (-33.5) vs. New Mexico State (TP=61 Odds=.893)

   South Carolina (-4) @ Arkansas (TP=52 Odds=.569)

   Iowa State (-7.5) vs. Kansas State (TP=49 Odds=.629)

   Clemson (-22.5) vs. Duke (TP=48 Odds=.849)

   Texas-El Paso (-5.5) vs. Tulsa (TP=54 Odds=.586)

   Miami (Ohio) (-30.5) vs. Buffalo (TP=48 Odds=.927)

   Rutgers (-6) vs. South Florida (TP=47 Odds=.606)

   Virginia (-27) vs. Temple (TP=51 Odds=.882)

   Oregon State (-7) @ Washington (TP=61 Odds=.598)

   Central Michigan (-5) vs. Northern Illinois (TP=51 Odds=.583)

   Brigham Young (-12.5) @ Nevada-Las Vegas (TP=56 Odds=.686)

   Central Florida (-6) vs. Houston (TP=55 Odds=.590)

   Utah (-2.5) vs. Wyoming (TP=51 Odds=.539)

   Bowling Green State (-13.5) @ Kent (TP=58 Odds=.692)

   Navy (-13.5) vs. Tulane (TP=53 Odds=.708)

   Western Michigan (-0.5) vs. Eastern Michigan (TP=55 Odds=.507) @ Detroit, MI

   Louisiana Tech (-6.5) @ Utah State (TP=52 Odds=.606)

   Air Force (-13) vs. Army (TP=53 Odds=.701)

   Akron (-1.5) @ Ball State (TP=56 Odds=.524)

   Nevada (-4.5) vs. Hawaii (TP=62 Odds=.563)

   Arkansas State (-0.5) @ Middle Tennessee State (TP=44 Odds=.506)

   Southern Methodist (-9.5) vs. Rice (TP=54 Odds=.647)

   Louisiana-Monroe (-13) vs. Florida International (TP=50 Odds=.716)

   Troy (-9.5) vs. Florida Atlantic (TP=43 Odds=.680)

   North Texas (-1) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (TP=46 Odds=.514)

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 2 2005 6:44pm
8. 0 likes

   Mejia's Selections

   By Tony Mejia

   Weekly predictions of the nation's Division I college football action.

   Last week: 27-19 |Season to date: 369-125 (74.6%)

   2004 season record: 469-156 (75.0 %)

   Projected Scores

   Week 10

   *Louisiana-Monroe 17 Florida International 7

   Houston 31 *Central Florida 27

   *Troy 24 Florida Atlantic 13

   Wisconsin 34 *Penn State 31

   *Memphis 34 UAB 30

   Western Michigan 31 *Eastern Michigan 13

   *Iowa State 31 Kansas State 20

   *Georgia Tech 16 Wake Forest 10

   Toledo 27 *Ohio 17

   Northern Illinois 24 *Central Michigan 17

   *Utah 31 Wyoming 20

   *Texas-El Paso 35 Tulsa 24

   *Miami (Ohio) 45 Buffalo 7

   *Texas Tech 34 Texas A&M 10

   Bowling Green 38 Kent State 21

   *Ball State 27 Akron 20

   *Louisiana Tech 38 *Utah State 13

   *Florida 34 Vanderbilt 15

   *West Virginia 17 Connecticut 10

   *TCU 24 Colorado State 23

   *Clemson 41 Duke 10

   *Fresno State 48 San Jose State 10

   *Rutgers 24 South Florida 20

   *Washington 24 Oregon State 20

   *Virginia 45 Temple 0

   *Southern California 55 Stanford 21

   *Ohio State 41 Illinois 7

   Tennessee 27 *Notre Dame 20

   *Northwestern 31 Iowa 23

   *North Texas 17 La.-Lafayette 9

   *Southern Methodist 20 Rice 17

   *Florida State 34 North Carolina State 7

   *Oregon 40 California 34

   Brigham Young 20 *UNLV 10

   Boston College 20 *North Carolina 17

   *Nevada 45 Hawaii 30

   Nebraska 20 *Kansas 17

   *Navy 31 Tulane 16

   *Boise State 54 New Mexico State 28

   *Colorado 23 Missouri 17

   Texas 37 *Baylor 13

   Minnesota 36 *Indiana 27

   *Purdue 31 Michigan State 30

   *Virginia Tech 24 Miami (Fla.) 13

   Auburn 24 *Kentucky 17

   *Middle Tennessee 31 Arkansas State 15

   *Arkansas 23 South Carolina 20

   *Washington State 31 Arizona State 27

   UCLA 34 *Arizona 20

   Alabama 27 *Mississippi State 6

   *Louisville 41 Pittsburgh 20

   *LSU 45 Appalachian State 0

   *Air Force 24 Army 6

   Home team *

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 2 2005 6:44pm
9. 0 likes

   Mejia's barking dogs

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Here is a list of Mejia's dogs to win outright. He was something like 9-3 last week in this situation. Pinny lines as of Wednesday.

   Wisconsin +10.5

   *Ball St. +3

   *Washington +4

   Tennessee +8.5

   *Northwestern +2.5

   *North Texas +4

   *Purdue +5

   *Washington St. +1.5

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 2 2005 6:45pm
10. 0 likes

    NOVEMBER 5, 2005 VOLUME 37, NUMBER 10

    PENN STATE 48 - Wisconsin 17 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at PennSt minus 9, and is now minus 9½. A

    turnaround at Happy Valley was far from unexpected (rated 34th in the nation on our "Poll"

    section of the season's initial Pointwise edition), but not many envisioned such a dramatic

    uptick. The 10th-rated Lions are but a heart-wrenching last-second road loss to mighty

    Michigan, from standing at a perfect 9-0. They are led, of course, by QB Robinson, who

    has done just about everything asked of him. And that Nit defense has allowed just 14, 10,

    & 15 pts as a conference host, with those impressive numbers coming against the likes of

    Minnesota, OhioSt, & Purdue. The 8-1 Badgers, on the other hand, have been repeatedly

    stung, allowing 2,154 yds the last 4 wks. Perfect setup for this revenge play.

    RATING: PENN STATE 89

    SOUTHERN METHODIST 38 - Rice 20 - (3:00) -- Line opened at SMU minus 7, and is still minus 7. The

    Owls of Rice have been an embarrassment, what with their 13-game losing streak, along

    with a defense which has allowed 44 ppg in their last 11 outings. Their normally potent

    rushing offense has been decent, but still a sharp drop from their recent eye-popping run

    stats. They garnered their first cover of the year last week, thanks to a 21-pt 2nd half, with

    all 3 TDs coming off Utep turnovers. Enter the Mustangs, who've certainly turned more

    than few heads this season, which began with their upset of TCU in game #2, & resumed in

    game #4, after a pair of bombs vs TexasA&M & Tulane. Covers of 8½, 21, & 7 pts in 3 of

    their last 4 games. Ponies have had 2 weeks to prepare for this avenging tilt.

    RATING: SMU 89

    CENTRAL MICHIGAN 30 - Northern Illinois 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NoIllinois minus 4½, and is now

    minus 3. The Chippewas of Central Mich are another squad which has improved greatly

    since a year ago. Four straight wins & covers to move their record to 5-3, as well as a tie for

    the top spot in the MAC West. Moving the ball wasn't a problem in LY's 4-7 season, but

    containing their foes certainly was. But check this year's stop unit, which has held its last 4

    opponents to 17, 10, 10, & 17 pts, & including last week's clamp-down of Toledo's normally

    potent offense. Offensively, QB Smith & RB Sneed (800 RYs) have been more than efficient.

    The Huskies have been without RB Wolfe, with last week's 42-pt ATS loss the result.

    Call another upset for Central, which has covered its last 4 games by 15 ppg.

    RATING: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 88

    ARKANSAS 33 - South Carolina 20 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Arkansas minus 4, and is now minus 4½. As

    we wrote in Pointwise, this one sets up perfectly for the Razorbacks, as they had an extra

    week to shed themselves of the effects of their heartbreaking loss to Georgia, while the

    Gamecocks have had no such luxury, not only from the high of upsetting Tennessee, but

    with Spurrier's date with his former school (Florida) dead ahead. The Arkies have been one

    of the more unnoticed squads, with their 2-5 log not reflecting their true worth, as losses AT

    Southern Cal, Alabama, & Georgia are hardly embarrassing. Check 197, 237, & 216 RYs

    in those 3 setbacks. Carolina depends almost entirely on QB Mitchell, as it has been held

    to 71, 70, & 65 RYs by quality opponents. As we said, a perfect setup.

    RATING: ARKANSAS 88

    NEVADA-RENO 45 - Hawaii 30 - (4:00) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 6½, and is still minus 6½. Don't

    look now, but the Wolfpack of Nevada is only 2 wins from bowl eligibility. Came up a bit

    short a week ago (49-14 at Boise), but even in that one, they more than held their own, statwise,

    with a narrow 460-438 yd deficit. Six turnovers. Return home, where they've scored

    99 pts in their last 2 hosters (39 & 7 pt covers). Led by QB Rowe (1,861 PYs, 12 TDs), they

    certainly should be able to do their thing against a Rainbow squad which has allowed 41

    ppg in 7 of its last 8 games. The host is 5-0 ATS in this series, with the home team on an 18-

    3 spread run in Reno games, as well as a 14-6 spread run in Rainbow tilts.

    RATING: NEVADA-RENO 88

    Indianapolis 31 - NEW ENGLAND 24 - (9:00 Monday) -- Line opened at Indianapolis minus 3, and is still

    minus. Yes, we know how juicy the 2-time defending champion Patriots appear as not only

    Monday dogs, but home dogs, to boot. Not only have they reigned supreme, with 3 titles in

    the last 4 seasons, but they've given Colt faithful sleepless nights for what seems forever,

    with TEN CONSECUTIVE WINS in Foxboro, including those 2 embarrassing playoff routs

    the past 2 years. However, this simply isn't the same NewEngland squad, with injuries, too

    many to mention, simply taking the expected effect. They prevailed by the narrowest of

    margins while hosting the Bills last Sunday, but were completely outplayed by a squad

    which they also have owned here. Indy sheds its huge monkey with this one.

    RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88

    NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): WakeForest, TexasTech, IowaSt - NFL: Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indianapolis

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 2 2005 11:58pm
11. 0 likes

    Joe Gavazzi - PPP

    SATURDAY NOVEMBER 5

    Michigan State (-5) over PURDUE by 9

    Purdue allowed 516 yards to Penn State LW in dropping it's 8th straight spread decision TY. They are now on a 2-14 ATS streak. This chemistry poor team from whom so much was expected has been ravaged by injuries and dissension. As a result, they qualify in an 87-44 ATS "towel tosser" play against situation. Can we trust the Spartan's 400 yard defense which allows nearly 6 YP play?

    RUTGERS (-3) over South Florida by 10

    One dimensional Bulls may suffer from the combination of a three week layoff and Northern exposure. Rutgers more offensively balanced and explosive with a run defense of 3.2 YPR to stop what South Florida does best. Momentum of 6th win carries over.

    Boston College (-4) over NORTH CAROLINA by 7

    Over achieving (5-2 ATS), defensively improved (5.0 YP Play) North Carolina needs to win 3 of 4 to go Bowling. Favor B.C. with the better balanced , more explosive offense and superior defense. They are 13-4 SU away, 6-1 ATS away and 15-4 ATS/loss.

    VIRGINIA (-35) over Temple by 31

    Despite week off and off a loss, can't see Virginia ,who is 13-4 ATS, home having anything but mercy for winless Owls. It has 3 huge ACC games dead ahead which will define their season.

    Minnesota (-13) over INDIANA by 16

    Rejuvenated Hoosiers, led by QB Powers, have offensive potential (25 PPG) to torch a Gopher defense that has allowed 36 PPG in Big 10 play. This, however, is the type of team on whom Mason has feasted. Their balanced offense and particularly their # 1 rushing offense will feast on the Hoosier stop unit allowing 4.7 YPR.

    Iowa (-2) over NORTHWESTERN by 9

    We exposed Northwestern for the pretenders they are in Michigan's 33-17 Big Ten GOY rout of the Wildcats. These Hawkeyes have an equally tough defense allowing 18 PPG and less than 5.0 YP play. A far better balanced offense than LY gains over 6 YP play. It will have its way against a Wildcat defense which remains among the nation's worst at 33 PPG and 6.3 YP play.

    GEORGIA TECH (-9) over Wake Forest by only 4

    Wake usually plays to the level of competition. Again this year they run 66 % of the time for 266 YPG. It's no surprise that they are on runs of 5-0 ATS and 4-0 ATS as dog. Tech has the tough defense 19 PPG but lack the offense (21PPG, 4.7 YP play) to carry this level of favoritism on a field where they are 1-9 ATS of late.

    FLORIDA (-20) over Vanderbilt by only 16

    Huge win over Georgia spells "let down" for the Gators. Vandy stands 8-2 ATS RD and features QB Cutler who's 252 PYPG has the ability to come thru the back door.

    CLEMSON (-3) over Duke by only 28

    Tiger's brutal 10-9 loss to Tech LW leaves them on a downer for 0-8 ATS Duke who has lost their ACC games by average of 45-9. In similar scenario just 2 weeks ago the Tigers took their foot off the pedal against Temple. With Florida State and South Carolina up next it may well happen again.

    EASTERN MICHIGAN (+4) over Western Michigan by 1

    Western resurgence came against Bowling Green without QB Jacobs and Kent State who has lost all 7 D1 games. QB Hiller finds airways less to his liking against veteran Eastern secondary.

    Northern Illinois (-3) over CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 7

    Last weeks oddest statistical result was Northern's 66 RY against a Ball State defensive front that allows 233 RYPG on 5.5 YPR. Meanwhile, a "popular" Central team was out rushing Toledo 160-95 in a 21-17 upset. I call the bounce back siding with the value based on those divergent results.

    Bowling Green (-11) over KENT STATE

    Uncertain status of QB Jacobs precludes a definitive call in a contest between 2 play against teams.

    NAVY (-12) over Tulane by 19

    Last week's heart breaking loss to Marshall in which Tulane gained only 186yards was the final straw in clenching a losing season. They now play their 8th week at 8th different site. Their 4.1 YPR defense is in the wrong place against a Navy team who comes off a loss, is playing with 42-10 revenge and runs 77 % of the time for 263 RYPG on 5.2 YPR.

    ARKANSAS (-4) over South Carolina by 11

    HC Nutt will not allow the 5 loss Hogs to give up. They out rush the Gamecocks 257-84 and catch them off a 16-15 Tennessee upset (as +14+) with a game against Spurrier's former team on deck.

    Akron (-3) over BALL STATE by 7

    Technician's dream game of the week (but not as good as the combined 67-3 ATS All Systems Go plays that are available by going to online services right now.) Each team is off an upset as double digit RD. Only one is in for a let down. Here is why: "Better priced road teams of favorite to +3 are 48-20 ATS vs. home teams who are off exactly one win, last week, as RD of +10+. This includes 6-0 ATS if our play on road team is also off a win as under dog."

    TEXAS TECH (-16) vs. Texas A&M

    One of these teams qualifies in a 35-2 ATS situation that is part of our 67-3 ATS All Systems Go plays for this week. All 3 are available for only $30 by going to online services now. You can't afford to miss them.

    MIAMI OHIO (-27) over Buffalo by 30

    Red Hawks have propensity for putting away this type opponent. Witness their 41-14 win over Temple LW and recent mark of 10-1 ATS HF. The Bull's recent 5-1 ATS mark keeps this line under 4 touchdowns. Lone detractor is look ahead to Bowling Green.

    NOTRE DAME (- over Tennessee by only 4

    Notre Dame is out scoring Tennessee 38-16 PPG. They stand 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS to the Vols 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS. The latter is the reason for the contrary 128-64 ATS play, which is part of a theory I promulgated over 20 years ago.

    BYU (-12) over UNLV by 19

    Cougars romped as our 5% play LW 62-41 running and passing for over 300 yards. That former number is important against a towel tossing 6 loss Rebel team who earlier this season was out rushed 316-2 by Air Force. Rebels also allow a whopping 67% completions.

    BOISE SATE (-35) over New Mexico State by 38

    Broncos broke out of their doldrums to run their record to 22-10 ATS HF, but it's just 5 short days until the first place WAC show down.

    UTAH (-3) over Wyoming by 7

    Highly competitive MWC finds a dog log of 17-8 ATS. Cowboys, however, have negative momentum. Following their 10-0 ATS streak they have gone 0-3 SU ATS with a combined 14 turnovers. Cannot discount the Utes hidden statistical advantage, which finds their balanced offense out gaining foes 466-382 yards and 6.3-5.5 YP play. Hidden value?

    LA Tech (- over UTAH STATE by only 4

    Combination of LA Techs 1-10 SU away record with Logan, Utah in early November a negative harbinger against hard trying Aggies who are 5-2 ATS and remain under valued.

    SMU (-7.5) over RICE by only 4

    Rice enters at 0-7 SU 1-6 ATS on a 13 game losing streak. Their running game has been reduced to 213 RYPG and 3.9 YPR. They are being out scored 56-21 and are allowing 7.6 YP play. Favor them here against an SMU team scoring just 17 PPG on 289 YPG.

    Texas (-2 over BAYLOR by 31

    Must feel Longhorns have learned their lesson after dropping to #2 as a result of allowing Oklahoma State to score 28 points in the first half last week. Though Baylor defense is greatly improved, truth is that they may not score here.

    Oregon State (-4) over WASHINGTON by 11

    Four critical TO s doomed Washington to a 44-20 front door cover by Arizona State last week. Further north the debacle was worse. Our 4% play on Oregon State (-10) lost out right when the Beavers, despite out gaining Arizona 654-384, committed 7 TO s including 6 picks by QB Moore who now has 16 INTs to only 4 TDs in conference play. It says here that Moore should reverse his fortunes against a Husky defense allowing 70% completions.

    OHIO STATE (-34) over Illinois by 41

    Impressed with Illini's balanced 537 yards vs. Whisky LW. That won't come close to happening in Columbus against the top rated Buckeye defense. Balanced Buckeye offense has exploded for 40 PPG in going 3-0 SU ATS. They will dominate a defense that allows 40 PPG and 6.7 YP play.

    IOWA STATE (-7.5) over Kansas State by 11

    You can only keep your finger in the dike so long. In the last 2 weeks Kansas State has given valiant home efforts as home dog to get a pair of covers but no wins. It leaves them at 1-4 SU in Big 12 play on a 3 game losing streak. At 1-6 ATS away they have shown little propensity for success in this role. Those brutal losses qualify them for play against "towel tossing" situations that are 87-44 ATS and 130-56 ATS.

    COLORADO (-11.5) over Missouri by 14

    I have never been a fan of one man road shows. Such is the case with Missouri with QB Smith who played poorly at Kansas LW where the Jayhawks held the Tigers to just 180 yards and 3 points in a 10 point victory. Colorado has the defensive and special team edges to repeat that scenario. Never a fan of laying doubles with Barnett.

    KANSAS (+1) over Nebraska by 6

    Before this Saturday Kansas had lost 36 consecutive times to Nebraska. Today we profit from a home momentum situation that is 58-19 ATS including 30-5 ATS if the road team is off a SU ATS loss. Jayhawk defense is among the best in the land allowing just 291 YPG and 4.1 YP play. With the better running game we have all the ingredients we need for the "upset".

    AIR FORCE (-11) over Army by 14

    Flyboys have been grounded this year now standing 3-6 SU. The villain is a defense that allows 33 PPG and 6.4 YP play. On the bright side is a better- balanced offense now averaging 29 PPG. The anemic Army attack averages just 14 PPG. Flyboy recent series dominance continues. Now 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS.

    VIRGINIA TECH (-6.5) over Miami Florida by 9

    Seems prudent to favor the revenging defensive dog who has gone 5-0 SU ATS in that role L5Y. That seems a bit too simplistic for my taste especially when considering that LA Tech may still be under rated based on their recent 16-4 ATS run. In the NCAA's version of Saturday Night Live, favor the better-balanced offense on one of the toughest fields in the land.

    OREGON (-1) over California by 4

    My first impression was to favor a Cal team who is no longer Golden this year at 2-5 ATS against the 5-2 ATS Oregon team. It triggers a 128-64 ATS contrary play. Further review finds an over compensation in the line for the loss of QB Clement. It keys a 52-14 ATS late season situation that favors "inferior" rested home teams off a win. Ducks only loss is to USC. It stays that way at least one more week.

    PENN STATE (-10.5) over Wisconsin by 17

    I have valid concerns regarding this popular choice when considering the Badgers recent 18-5 ATS dog log. Of equal concern is that they were playing possum in last week's 41-24 victory in which they were out gained by Illinois. Yet the fundamentals speak to Penn State's better balanced more explosive offense and their far superior defense which allows just 297 YPG and 4.0 YP play. Lions have covered 5 straight and qualify under 127-69 ATS LHG play.

    Auburn (-22) over KENTUCKY by 28

    Tigers have series dominance at 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS and a fundamental advantage of 50 pounds per man on the offensive line . They have covered 12 of their last 14 and are out scoring the opposition 34-11. At 2-5 SU Kentucky players are talking about "winning out" to get a Bowl bid. Those dreams end rapidly when they trail 14-0 after the first 8minutes.

    NEVADA (-5.5) over Hawaii by 9

    Altitude advantage is one of the biggest reasons that Nevada has one of the largest home/road dichotomies in the nation and why the home team has covered 5 straight in the series. Hawaii should have never failed ATS LW. That does not mean they get it back this week.

    CENTRAL FLORIDA (+3) over Houston by 1

    Central Florida at 5-3 SU ATS one of this years feel good stories following their winless campaign. Favor the residual value in this match up.

    UCLA (-10) over ARIZONA by only 6

    Arizona's phony upset (out gained 654-384) keys the same 48-20 ATS play against as Ball State. My gut feeling, however, is that the undefeated Bruin's defense which allows more than 200 yards both running and passing is about to run out of horse shoes. QB Tuitama a hit with 335 PY in Corvallis. Shade the home dog.

    USC (-33) over Stanford by 35

    Stanford's tough luck loss to UCLA keys a 130-56 ATS play against. Yet the Cardinal has the type of ball control offense that can shorten this game.

    Alabama (-17) over MISSISSIPPI STATE by only 13

    With their 5th consecutive loss dropping them to 2-6 SU, I would normally look to play against Miss State using an 87-44 ATS towel tosser angle. Yet Bulldogs should be far from that considering their coach grew up in Alabama, played for Bear Bryant and was dissed for the HC job held by incumbent Shula. Huge emotional edge to Bulldogs with Alabama looking ahead to LSU and Auburn.

    TCU (-7) over Colorado State by 14

    There will be plenty of backing for this under dog who perennially excels in that role and is 36-16 ATS L5 games in regular season under Lubick. Lubick says the 23-0 second half white wash of New Mexico was the Rams best half in 2 years. Silly me, I thought it was because they were plus 4 in the turnover column and won despite being out rushed 191-31. They may not feature that dominant an edge tonight considering TCU has forced 30 TO s this year. Take the home team in the battle for the league lead.

    Arizona State (-2.5) over WASHINGTON SATE by 6

    Typical reaction is to go against Sun Devil QB Carpenter , making his first road start behind an injured offensive line. Continued line of thinking is supported by the front door nature of the Sun Devil cover vs. Washington. Reality is that it is Washington State off their 5th straight loss and standing 4-10 SU at this site who has tossed the towel.

    FLORIDASTATE (-14) over North Carolina State by 10

    This is a Wolf pack team, who under Amato, has played to the level of their competition. Yet they are 12-0 ATS as RD. That's no surprise considering the defensive talent on board. Earlier this year in a loss to Virginia Tech they had a 438-232 yardage edge. They allow just 3.1 YPR 48 % completions and 4.3 YP play. Strong consideration to this defensive dog in their preferred role.

    UTEP (-9) over Tulsa by only 5

    Each team comes in on a 3 game winning streak with a 4-1 mark in the conference. Favor the better- balanced offense with the better running game and a passing defense that allows just 49 % completions to stop what UTEP likes to do best.

    FRESNO (-33) over San Jose State by 30

    Impossible for Fresno to get motivated for this regional rival knowing that their season will be defined by what happens the next 2 weeks vs. Boise State and USC.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 2 2005 11:59pm
12. 0 likes

    Pinnacle plus inside line info 11/2

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Welcome to the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at PinnacleSports.com look to give you an insider’s view of the point spread movement on key games each week and provide you with a little gambling theory to help you find a smarter way to bet courtesy of Pinnacle Sports.

    Miami (+6.5) at Virginia Tech

    Miami dropped its first game of the year at Florida State 10-7, and has since gone on a 6-0 run winning by an average of 23.3 points. Tech is 8-0, winning by an average of 27.7 points per game. The Hurricanes and the Hokies are ranked #1 and #2 in total yards allowed on defense, respectively. Tech has won the last two meetings between these teams with Miami winning three straight before that. Both teams are in the BCS hunt, with Tech ranked 3rd and Miami 6th. A decisive win with a Texas or USC loss could put either team in the National Championship hunt.

    We opened the game at +6.5 flat and saw early dog money as the line eased to +6. We were then played back the other way with many regular players laying -104 and taking -6. Since moving back to +6.5 we have seen moderate two-way action both in terms of the volume and the amount of wagers accepted.

    Tennessee (+8.5) at Notre Dame

    This is a match-up of two teams headed in opposite directions. In Charlie Weis's first year as Notre Dame's head coach, he has completely overhauled their offense, elevating their offensive production to 37.9 points per game. With an offensive attack that changed markedly from week-to-week, the Fighting Irish have started the season 5-2.

    The Volunteers are a disappointing 3-4 on the year (compared to a 10-3 record last season) with solid defense, but a lackluster offensive production. In Tennessee's four losses, it scored an average of less than 10 points per game.

    We are seeing a large volume on this game, with a moderate amount of point buying/selling towards the 7. Of our bigger players, the sharper money is on the Irish, though there is opposition. The unopposed action on this game is on the under and we're currently dealing under 50 -108.

    Indianapolis (-3) at New England

    The Colts had a bye week to prepare for this match-up and will be hoping to avenge last year’s season ending AFC playoff loss. A common misconception is that bye weeks help teams the following week. From 1995 to 2004, teams went 143-157-9 ATS after a bye. Totals also had a significant impact after a bye week with the under hitting at a rate of 158-142-9.

    We opened the game with the Colts favored by -3 and took a lot of large hits on Indianapolis. At the time of writing, the sharps and larger players are lined up on Peyton Manning and the Colts, while only the scalpers are playing the Patriots.

    Carolina (-1) at Tampa Bay

    Tampa was upset by San Francisco last week due in part to the loss of starting QB Brian Griese. Ten-year veteran defensive end Simeon Rice (with 3 Pro-Bowl selections) also missed the game for disciplinary reasons but is expected to play this week. If the Buccaneer’s offense flounders under backup QB Chris Simms, it will have to rely on its defense - ranked #1 in the league allowing 229.7 yards per game – to save the day.

    The Panthers are on a hot streak at the moment having won their last four games. Carolina has played a lot of close games (five this season were decided by 4 points or less) and if the spread is any indication, this will be another tight, low-scoring game.

    We opened the game as a Pick'em and saw moderate two-way action. The market has drifted towards Carolina -1 but the sharps are mostly staying off this game, although a few are on Tampa Bay.

    With the reigning Super Bowl Champion Patriots hosting the undefeated Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football, I thought it might be interesting in this week’s column to highlight a smarter way to bet on these high profile games at Pinnacle Sports.

    For the first time since 2002, New England is receiving points at home. As of today, the market price for the Colts saw them favored by 3 or 3.5 with a game total of 47. In nine Monday night games this year, the underdogs have gone 5-4, while playing the over has been 4-4-1.

    In the past, sharps have always loved home dogs getting points on the Monday night game, but the trend has cooled in recent years. In 2004, home dogs were 2-2 ATS and there has only been one home underdog so far this year, with Atlanta winning outright against Philadelphia.

    Historically, high profile games like most Monday Night contests have often had predictable line movements. Weather and injury factors excepting, conventional wisdom says to play the favorite early or the underdog an hour before kickoff to ensure the best price available. Last week was no exception as Baltimore opened as a 9.5 point underdog and closed at +12.5 against the Steelers.

    Similarly, totals have a history of steaming upwards as game time approaches. Many times, the difference between winning and losing a bet is a single point and just like shopping lines, waiting to place an under bet until Monday evening will often get you that extra point.

    A lot of times it is possible that you won't find a side or total you like on the Monday night game. In this instance, disciplined bettors will simply pass on the game, and focus on proposition bets (or "props"). Public games like Monday night football often provide more opportunities in props than on the game itself. They are the easiest for a player to beat and sports books routinely lose money on them.

    When you wager on a proposition, it’s typically your opinion versus one odds maker. If you know more than that one odds maker, you are going to get the best of it. As a result, many props departments will consider a break-even day as a small victory.

    Pinnacle Sports often offers more than forty reduced juice props on premier games with a 16 cent line to provide unbeatable value to the player. By way of comparison, other online books will typically use a 30 or 40-cent line with low wagering limits to protect themselves.

    With this many wagering options and the public betting like mad, it's not uncommon to see prop lines move on public money alone. We actually have several professional prop players that will take a contrarian view on our props and bet almost any one that moves more than 20 cents (betting towards the original price).

    Last week, we discussed the "Pinnacle lean". While this is mainly useful for measuring market prices on sides and totals, it can be used on props as well. For example, if we offered a theoretical prop, "Will Indianapolis score first?" at Yes -130/No +114, this would suggest that the no-vig price based on our 16 cent line is -122/+122. You can "play the lean" if you find another book with the Yes at -121, or the No at +123.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 3 2005 12:14am
13. 0 likes

    Power Sweep

    4* Byu

    3* Mia fl.

    3* Penn St.

    2* Wash

    2* N. Car

    2* Iowa

    Underdog: Miss St.

    PRO

    4* KC

    3* Chicago

    2* Jax

    2* Tenn

    Power Ratings Play: Tenn

    Pro Stat: No play

    O/U

    3* Chi\No Under 34

    3* Gia\SF Over 45

    3* Oak\Kc Over 51

    2* Det\Minn Under 37'

    2* Car\TB Under 36

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 3 2005 1:38pm
14. 0 likes

    Marc lawrence

    3
    BEST BET

    TEXAS TECH over Texas A&M by 27

    Another surprising halftime score was Tech’s 6-0 lead at

    Baylor. The Red Raiders stumbled for three quarters before

    posting a 22-point fourth quarter to beat the Bears easily.

    They weren’t ready to play. They will, however, be ready to

    play this. Tech is 48-7 ATS in its last 55 home wins and 21-4

    ATS as home chalk of -3 or more vs .375 or better foes. A&M

    is 3-12 SU and 2-13 ATS in its last 15 conference road games

    and 0-22 ATS on the road when the Aggies allow more than

    28 (Tech is averaging 49 ppg on its home field over the past

    three plus years). Oh yeah, TTRR is also on the receiving end

    of our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page 3.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET

    Tennessee over NOTRE DAME by 1

    This sure is a lot of points to lay to a team some preseason

    experts thought would win the national championship.

    Actually, it’s a lot of points to lay to any Tennessee team. The

    Vols are 8-2 ATS in their last ten as road dogs and their defense

    is the best one the rusty Notre Dame has seen this season

    (132 yards superior to the Irish). Add ND’s pitiful 2-11-1 ATS

    mark as home favorites off a SUATS win and its 10-26 record

    at home against avenging teams and suddenly another SEC

    non-conference underdog takes home the money.

    more than -13 and 37-12 ATS in its last 48 road wins. Mack Brown

    has shown no mercy against the Bears, beating them by an average

    of 47-8 since taking over as the Texas coach. With the BCS noose

    getting tighter and tighter, we'll opt for the Bears in their den

    off the home blanking last week.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    5
    BEST BET

    PENN STATE over Wisconsin by 24

    Neither team was overly impressive last week, most likely

    because they were both peeking ahead to this game. The

    winner will control its Big Ten destiny and the league’s spot

    in the BCS package. Where does the advantage lie, other than

    the obvious home field? We think it belongs to Penn State.

    A matter of double revenge, coupled with the Lions 139 yard

    superior defense sets the table. It's not often an 8-1 squad

    that's allowed 27 YPG more than they've gained comes

    calling. So it is with the overrated Badgers. Joe Pa's 5-0 ATS

    mark in Last Home Games cements it.

    losses in those games coming as a favorite of -18 or more. This is

    the lowest number in decades for Nebraska to overcome. We

    wouldn’t bet against them doing it but, we’re not real crazy

    about laying points on the road to a defense like Kansas possesses.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    4
    BEST BET

    Miami Fla over VIRGINIA TECH by 6

    Easily the game of the day. Miami struggled with North

    Carolina early before finally wearing the Tar Heels out while

    Virginia Tech had all they could handle with feisty Boston

    College. Look aheads? For sure! With four straight losses to

    Tech in its memory banks and a more tenuous national

    position, Miami has the motivational edge. They also possess

    the nation's top ranked defense and are 7-0 ATS as dogs in

    games off an ATS loss versus an opponent off a SU & ATS

    win. We love the fact that conference favorites of more

    than 6 points are just 10-25 ATS after bruising battles with

    Boston College. In fact, the Hokies themselves are 0-8 ATS

    after facing the Eagles. Another one bites the dust.

    The War Eagle has been ultra consistent this season. Against losing

    teams, Auburn has scored an average of 40 ppg while allowing a

    combined 27 points in those five games. Kentucky certainly

    qualifies as a losing team. The Cats have won once in their last 27

    games against SEC winning teams and definitely don’t figure to

    win here. But with the possibility that Aubbie is looking dead

    ahead to Georgia and Bama, Cats just sneak in under the number

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 3 2005 1:38pm
15. 0 likes

    Uab over MEMPHIS by 1

    Last week, while reading Tom Scott’s Steam Sheet, we noticed his

    weekly trivia question: Which running back passed Archie Griffin,

    LaDanian Tomlinson and Herschel Walker on the NCAA’s career

    rushing list LAST WEEK.? The answer was DeAngelo Williams, an

    incredible weapon. UAB has an incredible weapon of its own in

    Fat Hackney and the Blazers are 15-4 ATS as dogs off a loss and

    11-0 ATS in those 19 games if the foe is off a win as Memphis is.

    We like the Fat Man as an underdog.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Toledo over OHIO U by 15

    Again, disparate results from last week might get us a playable

    number with the Rockets. Off the shocking loss at Central Michigan

    last week, Toledo will have fire in its eyes when it rolls into Athens.

    Ohio has certainly played better at home than it has on the road

    and the Bobbies have beaten some decent teams here in the past

    few years. Still, we think Toledo can win and when the Rockets

    win they cover. How about 27-2 ATS in the last 29!

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    PURDUE over Michigan St by 1

    It was funny to us that Michigan State came out as a polished

    efficient offensive machine against Indiana one week after looking

    like the most disorganized, undisciplined and nonfunctional

    offense in the world against Northwestern. MSU won’t have an

    easy time here. Purdue, standing at 0-8 ATS on the season and in

    the throes of a six-game losing streak, is actually playing better

    now than it has all season. The Spartans have covered just one of

    their last seven road games and don’t have the defense to improve

    on that record any time soon. Due this or leave it.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    RUTGERS over S Florida by 4

    Rutgers got even with Navy for a 54-21 whipping it took last season

    and has made itself bowl eligible for its first bowl game since the

    1978 Garden State Bowl. The Knights have no such motivational

    advantage here and will have to earn this win over the capable

    Bulls. We know that Rutgers is 7-13 ATS at home off a SU win and

    that South Florida is 8-2 ATS after scoring 17 or less. Bulls may be

    rusty off two weeks of rest.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Boston College over N CAROLINA by 10

    North Carolina had visions of pulling another monumental upset

    over Miami of Florida last week but the Hurricanes, down 16-7,

    outscored the Tar Heels 27-0 over the last two and a half quarters

    and put to sleep any UNC dreams of ACC glory. That won’t stop

    the Heels from being excited here. BC beat Carolina in a bowl

    game last season to get its first ACC win and Carolina has been

    waiting almost a year to get even. The problem, though, is Tom

    O'Brien is the answer to this week's Trivia Teaser (see page 2) and

    that spells trouble for the Heels. Don't like UNC's 1-6 ATS log in

    revengers against a foe off a loss, either.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    VIRGINIA over Temple by 34

    Another barbecuing for the Owls. No wonder Bobby Wallace quit.

    We would, too, if we had to face the schedule he has this season.

    Once again, we remind you that disinterested favorites are not

    our cup of coffee (we have no tea in our office). With Georgia

    Tech, Virginia Tech and Miami Florida next on the Cavalier

    schedule, we’re going to step out on a limb and say that Virginia

    is not the least bit interested in this. Neither are we.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    W VIRGINIA over Connecticut by 16

    Even though West Virginia is 0-6 ATS at home off BB SU wins

    against an opponent off a SU loss and just 2-10 ATS in its last 12

    tries as a home favorite, we’re not talking up UConn here. Injuries

    have devastated the Husky offense and third-string quarterbacks

    don’t have much success in Morgantown. Connecticut is 2-11-3 ATS

    when allowing 24 or more, a number well within West Virginia’s

    reach. WVU sees the BCS as a real possibility.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    LOUISVILLE over Pittsburgh by 21

    Pittsburgh has improved after a dismal start, we won’t question

    that. We will question the opposition against which that

    improvement was measured. The Panthers have won four of their

    last five, but their last four victims couldn’t put an All-Star team

    together that could beat Louisville at Papa John stadium. Dog

    lovers beware. Louisville is 9-0 SU & ATS, all as favorites of more

    than nine points, in its last nine home games by an average winning

    margin of more than 40 points per game!

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Open or reload a Marc Lawrence

    account – You’ll receive a 25%

    bonus which can be placed

    Minnesota over INDIANA by 17

    Indiana is finding out that wins over Kentucky, Central Michigan,

    Illinois and Nicholls State do not a season make. The Hoosiers left

    that quartet at 4-0 and looking at their first bowl game in a long

    time. Four games against real teams have left the Hoosiers at 4-4

    and wondering if they can beat anybody. Minnesota is better

    than any Minnesota team in the last decade, is off BB losses – and

    playing with humiliating revenge from an ‘04 loss here as 17-pt

    favorites. The Gophers could run Indiana right into the ground.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    NORTHWESTERN over Iowa by 3

    Iowa better bring about 35 (points, that is) with them when they

    walk into Dyche Stadium because Northwestern can score and

    score plenty against anybody. Although Iowa is 25-1-1 ATS in its

    last 27 SU road wins, we simply can’t count on a Hawkeye win.

    The reason? Iowa is 6-20 SU in its last 26 road games against

    teams who were greater than .600. The Hawks are also 15-58 ATS

    in their last 73 games when allowing 28 or more.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    GEORGIA TECH over Wake Forest by 12

    While Wake Forest was taking the week off at Duke, Georgia Tech

    was in a battle for its life at home against Clemson. Tech is a lowly

    1-7-1 ATS in its last nine home games and Wake Forest is 14-6 ATS

    in its last 20 as road dogs. Still, we like the edge that Tech enjoys

    on the defensive side and the edge Tech enjoys at the quarterback

    position. Wake’s only two conference road wins in its last 14 chances

    came at Duke and the Bumblebees are 40-9 ATS in their last 49

    wins off a win. Demons are 1-10 ATS in road finales and haven't

    won BB conference road games in four years. It won't happen here.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    FLORIDA over Vanderbilt by 16

    Huge win for Florida over Georgia last week may leave the Gators

    a little flat for a capable Vanderbilt team, Vandy is 6-1 ATS in

    their last seven appearances as a road underdog and Florida is 10-

    20-2 ATS in its last 32 games as a favorite. The experts can say

    what they want, but we would rather have Jay Cutler leading our

    team than Chris Leak. Unfortunately for Vandy, Florida has more

    guys to stop Cutler than the Commies do to stop the Leak.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    CLEMSON over Duke by 31

    Clemson is, without question, the master of close losses. The Tigers

    did it again last week, falling by one at Georgia Tech and they

    should be in an extremely aggravated mood here. That’s not good

    for a Duke team that has yet to cover the spread this season. The

    Blue Devils have allowed at least 35 points in each of their five

    ACC games this season and have allowed an average of 45 points

    in those games. Just so you know, Clemson is 26-7 ATS when it

    scores 35 or more at home and Duke is 3-20 ATS in its last 23 road

    games when allowing 35 or more.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    W Michigan over E MICHIGAN by 6

    Wow! This Tim Hiller kid has electrified the Western Michigan

    offense and if Matt Bohnet isn’t back for Eastern, the kid might

    just notch his third straight win. Neither team has numbers worth

    considering but, Tom Scott, our MAC expert, has this to say - If

    Bohnet plays and is able to take some of the pressure off the

    running game, Anthony Sherril will have a huge day for the Eagles.

    We’ll check Bohnet’s status before we move on this.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~

    N Illinois over C MICHIGAN by 4

    We can’t believe the collapse of Northern Illinois against Ball State.

    We, like many others, believed that the Huskies had a ticket to

    the MAC Championship and were a force to be reckoned with in

    the post season. Needless to say, there are doubts. The situation

    this week defines line value. Northern is off a SU loss as a FOUR

    TOUCHDOWN favorite. Central Michigan just won the biggest

    game in Mount Pleasant in decades. Could it be that NIU is laying

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~

    Bowling Green over KENT ST by 14

    Playing without Omar Jacobs hasn’t helped Bowling Green. In fact,

    it has destroyed its bowl chances barring a MAC title game win.

    However, as Kent has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, you

    don’t need Omar Jacobs to beat the Golden Flashes. Throw out

    all the Kent numbers. The Flashes were gifted by the presence of

    Joshua Cribbs for the previous four years. He’s gone and so is Kent’s

    offense. If Jacobs is available, we’ll look as the not so Golden guys

    are 0-6 ATS as home dogs of 13 or less against a foe off a win.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    NAVY over Tulane by 16

    Navy has too many numbers to ignore going into this game. The

    Middies are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 revenge games, and 7-3-1 ATS

    in their last 11 home games. They are also 38-3 ATS in victories

    when playing off a loss. That Navy revenge, by the way, would be

    for its worst loss (42-10) in its last 31 games. It isn’t fair what has

    happened to the homeless Green Wave and we feel sorry for the

    team, the coaches and the program. But we feel no remorse for

    the bookmakers who sell this game. We'll buy the swabbies.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~

    ARKANSAS over S Carolina by 10

    Houston Nutt is definitely on the hot seat in Fayetteville. Somehow,

    by hook or by crook, he has to get his Razorbacks into the win

    column and he has to do it this week. Hog backers don’t care that

    Nutt’s five losses this year came against team’s who were

    undefeated when Arkansas played them. They want wins. With

    his 6-1 ATS mark in this series and 7-1 ATS log in games off BB

    defeats, Nutt has a chance to get a “Wâ€Â

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 3 2005 1:39pm
16. 0 likes

    marc lawrence:

    MIAMI OH over Buffalo by 28

    Buffalo had its best chance to win a game this season go by the

    boards with its 34-20 loss to Ohio. Since the Bulls have never won

    a MAC road game and Miami is VERY protective of its home field,

    we don’t expect any upset in this one. The RedHawks are an

    impressive 10-2 ATS in their last 12 tries as home chalk and a perfect

    8-0 ATS at home against avenging teams. No Buffalo burger here.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Byu over UNLV by 15

    The Cougars are playing as well, if not better, than any other

    Mountain West team. Sparkling wins over Colorado State and Air

    Force followed a huge upset at New Mexico in league play and

    guess who has a shot at another conference title. Can’t see the

    spastic Rebels getting in the way of the title run – not with their

    9-22 ATS mark at home in league action. The Cougars are 18-7

    ATS on the road with revenge in their last 25 chances and should

    improve on that mark in the fun capital.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    BOISE ST over New Mexico St by 36

    Another disinterested home favorite hits the board here but the

    Broncos may not be able to stop themselves from covering the

    spread. New Mexico State is allowing 39 ppg on the season and, if

    we remember correctly, Boise is pretty good when it scores 38 or

    more. We would call 25 straight home wins against lined teams

    with 21 covers pretty good. Wouldn’t you?

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    UTAH over Wyoming by 4

    Wyoming sure has fallen along the wayside after a brilliant start.

    It’s not that the Cowboys are any less talented than they were

    early in the season. It’s just that they can no longer hang onto the

    football. 14 turnovers in its last three games, all losses, have turned

    Wyoming’s dream season into a nightmare. Utah hasn’t exactly

    been lining its supporters pockets with money. The Utes have one

    cover on the season (we have them at 0-6-2 ATS for the year) and

    have failed in all four tries as league favorites. In a game nobody

    seems able to win, we’ll step aside.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    La Tech over UTAH ST by 9

    Utah State probably fits into the WAC and it is our belief that the

    Aggies will contend for that title in a few years. They are a feisty

    lot in Logan and they may be able to handle the Bulldogs in this.

    Still, we would rather have a home dog with a clear superiority in

    some phase of the game and USU doesn’t have one. Louisiana

    Tech is no bargain on the road with two covers in its last ten road

    games. This game smells too “Sun Beltyâ€Â

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 3 2005 1:40pm
17. 0 likes

    lawrence pros

    NY JETS over San Diego by 7...4* bb

    Vinny says he’ll be back after that disaster at Atlanta and the

    Jets’ 9-2-1 ATS mark after Monday night games makes him

    worth a look here. A scheduling quirk finds the Chargers

    playing their fifth game in a row against an opponent with

    extra preparation time and the travel itinerary isn’t in their

    favor. They flew to the east coast two weeks ago to play

    Philly and are on their way back to the right shore this

    week. With Diego 2-8 ATS against teams out of the AFC East

    and 3-10-1 ATS after Kansas City, we'll do an abrupt 'ABOUT

    FACE' and fly with the Jets here today.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    5
    BEST BET

    TAMPA BAY over Carolina by 14

    Tampa Bay relishes playing in games like these. They are one

    of the best in the league laying or taking three or less in the

    Sombrero, going 15-2 SU & 14-2-1 ATS! Granted Carolina is

    one of the league’s best underdogs. But catching the Panthers

    off a 25-point win fattens them up for the kill. We like the

    league's best defensive squad at home off an embarrassing

    loss. You will, too.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    3
    BEST BET

    GREEN BAY over PITTSBURGH by 6

    Here’s that Ugly Pig rearing its snout again. Those swine,

    the ones who start the season 0-4, are murder as home

    underdogs, not that the Packers are anywhere near bad in

    that role. Green Bay has been a home pup nine times since

    Brett Favre made the scene in Cheeseville. The Pack has

    seven SU wins and eight covers in those nine games.

    Pittsburgh is a tough road team but the Steelers are in the

    middle of a double division sandwich. We’ll do another

    'ABOUT FACE' and take Favre with the points in Lambeau

    on this day as the series host improves to 5-0 ATS.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    bb for the week

    3*..tt..packers..jets under

    4*..miami fla...jets..dolphs under

    5*..peen st..bucs,,kc over

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 3 2005 1:40pm
18. 0 likes

    JACKSONVILLE over Houston by 12

    The Houston offense, if it can be called that, is averaging less

    than 14 points per game this season. That won’t get it done

    against a Jacksonville team which is a perfect 20-0 ATS in its last

    20 games when allowing less than 17 points. The Jags have made

    a habit of pounding losing teams, scoring 26 wins in 33 tries against

    sub .250 opposition. Unbelievably, Jacksonville has revenge here

    from a humiliating 21-0 home loss to these Texans. Wouldn’t want

    to be wearing the road suits here, the 'ugly pigs' that they are.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Atlanta by over MIAMI by 3

    There was a time when you could take Miami against NFC

    opposition and go out to dinner knowing that the Dolphins would

    bring home the money. Not now. Miami is just 2-6 ATS in their last

    eight against the other conference and a paltry 2-12 ATS against

    NFC .700 or better teams. Then there’s the rushing angle. Atlanta,

    the top running team in the NFL, has a good chance to outrush

    the Dolphins here. Miami is 10-27-4 ATS at home when the other

    team has more ground yards. No mammals for us.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    NY Giants over SAN FRANCISCO by 7

    No point in going over the same pages again and again. San

    Francisco is the worst team in the NFL and cannot be trusted

    (despite last week's shocker against the Bucs). The Giants have

    done rather well despite losing the stats battle on a regular basis

    (last week broke their 2005 cherry) and figure to have way too

    much offense for the porous Forty Niner defense to handle. We’ll

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    KANSAS CITY over Oakland by 3

    Oakland could be a live underdog here. The Raiders are 7-1 ATS

    in their last eight division road games with revenge, including

    6-0 ATS with same season revenge. They also own the better

    defense in this matchup. Kansas City has lost to the spread in seven

    consecutive November games and is 6-16 ATS in the turkey month

    against sub .500 teams. A lean to the dog.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~

    NEW ORLEANS over Chicago by 1

    Going into last weekend, the NFC North had just one non-division

    road win (Detroit at Cleveland) in seven tries. We’re not sure

    that this is a road game but we’re not interested in the Bears,

    especially off a rare road win. Even though Chicago is a solid 8-2

    ATS in the second of back-to-back road games and 18-6-1 ATS in

    its last 25 November games, we respect the Saints’ 5-1 ATS mark

    in the last six games of this series. We still feel that New Orleans is

    going to blow out somebody soon and we won’t fade them here.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    BALTIMORE over Cincinnati by 3

    All the numbers in this game point to the Ravens. Baltimore is

    18-6 ATS in the last 24 of this series, 8-1 ATS after playing the

    Steelers and 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven November games. However,

    Cincinnati owns some numbers of its own and is clearly the superior

    team. Balto is averaging a little over 12 ppg on the season and

    the Bengals are an awesome 34-6-2 ATS in their last 42 road games

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    NEW ENGLAND over Indianapolis by 3

    It’s no secret that the fence between Indianapolis and NFL Dynasty

    has New England carved in its boards. The Pats have beaten the

    Colts 14 times in the last 16 meetings with just three ATS losses. In

    the last nine meetings, the best Peyton and the gang could do is

    one push to go with nine SU losses. The remarkable thing about

    those numbers? The Pats may be a home dog here. If they are, we

    note they're 9-1 ATS taking points in Foxboro this millennium.

    They're also 6-1 ATS as Monday night dogs.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    WASHINGTON over Philadelphia by 1

    Until last week's debacle in the Big Apple, astute NFL observers

    said that Washington was playing the best football in the NFC

    East. We won’t argue that one way or the other, but it’s no longer

    Philly and the Three Stooges in this division. The Redskins, as you

    might suspect, haven’t had much luck against the Eagles recently

    with just four covers in the last 16 meetings. If the Tribe stays

    favored here, the Dominating Dog theory goes against them. We’ll

    wait and see the number before we move.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~

    Seattle over ARIZONA by 6

    Although most teams relish the bye week, particularly when it

    comes near the middle of the season. Seattle dreads it. The reason

    is simple. The Seabags are a miserable 3-15 SU and ATS in their

    last 18 games with rest. That gives us a little more confidence in

    an Arizona team who is a respectable 5-1 ATS as division home

    dogs and 5-1 ATS at home with division revenge. The problem,

    though, is Seattle's dominate rushing numbers. So much so we'll

    fade the trends and look their way in the desert today.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    adding browns by 2 over tenny

    minny by 3 over det..

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 3 2005 1:42pm
19. 0 likes

    wow, that's some grat info man. first time i've looked at it. Keep it going

    

    posted by jtmoney16

    Nov. 3 2005 2:29pm
20. 0 likes

    Power Sweeps

    4* BYU 3* MIAMI FL 3* PENN ST 2* WASHINGTON, UNC, IOWA UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK MISS.ST NFL 4* KANSAS CITY 3* CHICAGO 2* JACKSONVILLE, TENNESSEE SYSTEM PLAY OF THE WEEK DETROIT LIONS

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 4 2005 1:41pm
21. 0 likes

    Red Sheet CFB89-Penn St, SMU 88-CMU, Ark, Nev 87-Wake, Tx Tk, Ia ST

    Red Sheet NFL 88-Indy 87-Jax, Tenn

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 4 2005 1:42pm
22. 0 likes

    Foxsports fearless predictions

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Game of the Week

    No. 5 Miami (FL) at No. 3 Virginia Tech â€â€

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 4 2005 1:42pm
23. 0 likes

    Foxsports fearless predictions

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Game of the Week

    No. 5 Miami (FL) at No. 3 Virginia Tech â€â€

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 4 2005 1:43pm
24. 0 likes

    Miami herald/Jeff Shain

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    • Virginia Tech 23, Miami 14: Hokies not only have been unbeatable in Blacksburg, but darn near impenetrable. Five of eight foes have been held under 100 yards rushing, making it very iffy that UM's Tyrone Moss can bail out Kyle Wright. Another slow start here is doom. (Favorite: Tech by 6 ½.)

    • Florida 36, Vanderbilt 20: Gators haven't beaten Vandy by more than 18 since the Spurrier era, and even then usually viewed this week as a breather. Commodores have the SEC's top passing offense behind QB Jay Cutler, but UF's Chris Leak won't see much of a pass rush. (Favorite: UF by 19.)

    • Florida State 26, N.C. State 16: Expect DEs Manny Lawson and Mario Williams to bring the heat on FSU's Drew Weatherford, especially with RB Leon Washington out. But Wolfpack has its own turnover problems on offense (20), and a bad tendency to self-destruct in crunch time. (Favorite: FSU by 13 ½.)

    • Penn State 37, Wisconsin 24: Badgers' defense has been brutal, ranking 97th in the nation and finding its most trouble against mobile QBs -- like, say, PSU's Michael Robinson. Nittanys' D also has been stout. Last time they took on a workhorse RB, they pounded Minnesota by 30. (Favorite: PSU by 10.)

    • Colorado 34, Missouri 21: Jekyll-and-Hyde Tigers turned meek in last week's loss to Kansas, one game after QB Brad Smith went for 200-200 against Nebraska. He needs support, but RB Marcus Woods averages just 49 yards a game. Buffs QB Joel Klatt will light up Mizzou's D. (Favorite: Colorado by 11 ½.)

    • California 33, Oregon 17: Not sure why Ducks are favored after losing their top two QBs in their last outing vs. Arizona. Now it's down to soph Brady Leaf -- Ryan's brother, which certainly would draw more ridicule if this game was played in Berkeley. (Favorite: Oregon by 1 ½.)

    • TCU 30, Colorado State 27: Rams made a late charge to force showdown for Mountain West crown, but defense that ranks 95th in nation doesn't inspire much trust. Horny Toads won't overwhelm anyone, but lead nation in turnover margin and -- SMU excluded -- keep finding ways to win. (Favorite: TCU by 7.)

    • Last week: 5-2. Tennessee really should have known better than to honor Peyton Manning with Steve Spurrier in the house. Against spread: 3-4.

    • Season: 36-22 (30-27 vs. spread).

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 4 2005 1:43pm
25. 0 likes

    TheLockerRoomReport

    Welcome to Week 10 of this season's Locker Room Report where the nation's top handicappers provide analysis of the biggest match-ups in college and pro football each and every week at no charge! Last week, the recent winning trend by our panel was reversed, but there were still plenty of highlights. The super computers over at CSS churned out a victory on Maryland as the Terrapins gave Florida State all they could handle. The Sharpshooter was right on target with Denver rolling it up over Philadelphia at Mile High. The Razor was sharp again, popping the champagne cork at "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" with Georgia/Florida under the total. And The Scout didn't let you miss out on the winning ticket from "Big D" as the Cowboys handled the Cards with ease. This week our panel launches your second half run with insight into the critical match-ups that you care about, as always, free of charge. So enjoy and we'll see you here every week this season. Let's get 'em!!!

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Iowa @ Northwestern on Saturday, November 5th

    The Iowa Hawkeyes have not been the powerhouse they were supposed to be this year. The 5-3(3-2) Hawkeyes are gaining momentum and having last week off won't hurt them this week at Northwestern. Although Drew Tate and Albert Young are starting to put up the numbers their supposed to, it's too late to get to the top of the Big 10. Northwestern has surprised a lot of people this year, covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games with a total breakdown last week at home against Michigan. The Wilcats also 5-3(3-2) are stuck in the middle of the Big 10 with nowhere to go. This week the magic won't be back as the Hawkeyes look to gain some respect.

    Free Pick from The Scout: IOWA -2½ OVER NORTHWESTERN

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    Texas A&M @ Texas Tech on Saturday, November 5th

    The line on this game is Texas Tech -16'. The Red Raiders are ranked 16th, but it's not because of their defense. It's their Potent offense. The only blemish they've had has come against a great Texas squad. And that is to be expected. Don't be fooled by Texas A&M's 5-3 record. They are not that good. In this rivalry game, it should remain close for the majority of the game, but Tech will pull away late in the game. If we had to play a side we'd take Texas A&M +16'. However, the real play is the total. This is a gift from Vegas. Both these teams went under the total against a tough Baylor defense. But other than that, only three of the other eleven opportunities have gone under and this game will be no different. Look for a shootout. Texas Tech does not have a defense, maybe they do, but they just want to showcase their potent offense. A&M will play the same style game. It will be a very fun game to watch and make money on.

    Free Pick from Computer Sports: this game is over the total.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Tennessee @ Notre Dame on Saturday, November 5th

    The 3-4 Volunteers of Tennessee travel to South Bend to face the 5-2 Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. Tennessee will be led by QB Rick Clausen and RB Gerald Riggs. Tennessee had high hopes early in the season, but have seen their season fall apart the last 3 weeks losing 3 in a row while never scoring over 15 in any of the losses. Notre Dame on the other hand has a great season underway under new coach Charlie Weis. The Fighting Irish are 5-2 with the losses against strong teams Michigan ST and USC, both defeats were by 3 points. The Irish will be led by QB Brady Quinn, RB Darius Walker and WRs Jeff Samardzija and Maurice Stovall. Quinn has an impressive 20 TDs and only 4 ints., with Samardzija catching 11 of the TDs. RB Walker provides balance with over 600 yds. rushing and a solid 4.3 yard per carry average. While the Irish defense has been suspect, the Volunteer offense has shown nothing to make me think that they can take advantage of it.

    Free Pick from The Nevada Sharpshooter: The Sharpshooter picks Notre Dame to cover the 8 point spread over Tennessee.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Missouri @ Colorado on Saturday, November 5th

    A classic Big 12 match-up with the North Division lead at stake. Colorado perhaps has the most to lose as they hover at the bottom of the Top 25, and are reeling from a close call against also-rans Kansas State. Colorado looks to clinch the Big 12 North division with a win in Boulder, along with a little help from other games on the board. Missouri has the most to gain with a win, as they can win the division with a tiebreaker, but they have a steep hill to climb. They’ve won only once in Boulder in the last 20 years and they showed below average offensive production against Kansas last Saturday. For bettors, a comparison may yield more clues. Colorado is 4-4 ats while Missouri is 3-4. Colorado’s average margin of victory at home is a solid 23.5, while Missouri’s road average is 8. That alone points to a 15.5-point Colorado win. With tailback Hugh Charles questionable, the line is down in the 11-range. There is a good chance Charles will return, and even if he doesn’t, the number still holds enough value for bettors to take advantage.

    Free pick from Dr. Vegas: Colorado -11 over Missouri

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Miami, FL @ Virginia Tech on Saturday, November 5th

    No doubt the biggest game on the schedule this Saturday as Virginia Tech hosts Miami-Fla in a huge battle of Top 10 teams. The Hokies, ranked 3rd in every major poll in the country, will have the huge advantage of playing this game at home in Lane Stadium where they just seem to be invincible. The Hokies are an incredible 27-7 ATS as a favorite of 3½-10 points since 1992, and they've taken care of home turf covering 11 of their last 15 in Blacksberg including a 31-7 thumping of Miami in 2003. Canes in a rare underdog spot where they're 9-5 ATS since 1992, and they've won the last 2 outright when getting points. The two best defenses in the country will be on display Saturday night on ESPN, but i think the difference will be the offense of Virginia Tech and QB Marcus Vick. Vick has been terrific throwing the ball lately, and he's mobile enough to create when the rush is on. Where as Miami QB Wright is prone to making mistakes, and isn't as creative or elusive under pressure.

    Free Pick from Mike Wynn: Miami mistakes against an opportunistic Hokies defense should spell their doom. Recommend laying the points with the home team here.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Wisconsin @ Penn State on Saturday, November 5thWisconsin (8-1, 5-1, BCS 12) is in the hunt for their 4th BIG-10 championship in coach/athletic director Barry Alvarez's 16th and final year despite returning only 9 starters from 2004. Alvarez leaves a legacy of transforming a perennial loser to a national power with exceptional recruiting and a focus on dominating the rushing game. Junior RB Brian Calhoun (254 for 1218 and 19 TD rush, 36 for 439 and 2 TD receiving) leads the nation with 21 TD and follows the long line of Badger backs that have thrived behind Madison's traditionally dominant offensive lines. Wisconsin has only 15 seniors on the roster but 3 are found at the interior line, punching holes for 186.9 yards on the ground per game, and 6'8" 303 pound junior LT Joe Thomas has been strong protecting QB John Stocco's (130 of 213 for 1858, 15 TD, 7 INT) backside. Passing has always taken a back seat for Bucky but the junior Stocco is better than most and has a pair of big-play targets in 6'3" 190 WR Jonathon Orr (29 for 456, 6 TD) and 5'11" 175 WR Brandon Williams (37 for 630, 4 TD), who doubles as a electrifying return man averaging 31.0 per kick return and 16.7 per punt return. The Badger defense has been generous (176.4 rush, 249.6 pass), but has held opponents to 24.4 points with 19 turnovers and 20 sacks. Wisconsin's defensive line starts 3 sophomores and a freshman with 6'5" 302 RDT Nick Hayden (44 T, 7 TFL, 3 ½ S) the best of the bunch. The backers are small, making the Badger scheme look like a 4-7 at times but the return of 6'2" 228 SLB Mark Zalewski (48 T, 8 ½ TFL) from injury will balance a squad led by 6'1" 208 WLB Dontez Sanders (69 T, 4 TFL). Safety Joe Stellmacher (54 T, INT) and freshman CB Jake Ikegwuonu (19 T, 3 INT) have moved into starting roles, adding intensity to the cover group. P Ken DeBauche may be the best in the nation, averaging 45.8, and dropping 16 of 37 inside the 20 with just 2 touchbacks. Penn State's (8-1, 5-1, BCS 7) Joe Paterno (351-117-3) was written off by many but his Lions have Beaver Stadium (grass, 108,000) rocking again and his team headed for a 32nd bowl appearance in his 40th season as head coach. State's offensive attack is balanced (212.1 rush, 216.1 pass) and productive (35.7 points per), anchored by an experienced (4 seniors, 1 junior) offensive line and ignited by dual-threat QB Michael Robinson. The junior Robinson (118 of 224 for 1754, 13 TD, 7 INT) is the team's 2nd leading rusher (117 for 570) and has found the end zone 10 times on the ground. You turn your back on this kid at your peril, so defenses are forced to play zone rather than man-to-man, leaving holes for a great trio of freshmen wide outs with WR's Deon Butler (27 for 507, 6 TD), Jordan Norwood (23 for 282), and Derrick Williams (22 for 289, TD) all capable of stretching the field, although Williams will miss (arm). Penn State's traditionally strong halfback and tight end are capably if not spectacularly filled by 6'2" 224 RB Tony Hunt (130 for 807, 3 TD) and 6'5" 260 TE Isaac Smolko (9 for 164). The Nitanny Lion defense is unquestionably one of the nation's best, allowing just 103.7 rushing, 192.9 passing, and 16.1 points per in the offense-happy Big 10. State starts 7 seniors and 3 juniors and the lineup has been stable all season with the 11 starters ranking 1-11 in tackles for the year. A ferocious front 7 is led by LDE Tamba Hali (45 T, 11 TFL, 7 S) and OLB Paul Posluszny (94 T, 6 ½ TFL, 2 S) plus the pair of 6'0" 200 SS Calvin Lowry (60 T, 3 INT) and 6'2" 212 FS Chris Harrell (68 T, INT) hit like linebackers.

    Free Pick from #1 Sports: Alvarez has always had his role model, Joe Paterno's, number and, with the Big 10 championship on the line, a rout is unlikely in Happy Valley. Take Wisconsin + 10 ½.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    North Carolina State @ Florida State on Saturday, November 5thThis ACC match up consists of two teams coming off big comeback wins last Saturday. The Wolfpack, down 14-0 in the 3rd quarter, rallied for a 21-17 win over Southern Miss. Florida State, down 21-14 at halftime, went airborne to fend off a dinged up Terrapin team. Head coach, Chuck Amato, has plenty of worries and they don't concern just the game at hand. The Raleigh fans have grown disconcerted with the Wolfpack football program and have started leaving the games early or not coming at all. N.C State's current streak in the ACC is 5-11 and prompted A.D. Lee Fowler to write an open letter asking Wolfpack fans for their patience. Against Southern Miss, Amato finally replaced inconsistent 5th yr Sr Jay Davis with Soph Marcus Stone with hopes of sparking the offense. Freshman Andre Brown ran for 248 yards against Southern Miss. Four 1st half turnovers almost ruined Brown's huge rushing day for the Wolfpack and if they turn the ball over like that to Florida State, they'll be in for a long day. Florida State ranks in the top half of ACC with both their offense and defense, however, Fr QB Drew Weatherford will need to turn the ball over less. His 2 early interceptions against the Terps helped put the 'Noles in a 24-14 hole midway through the 3rd quarter. He then rebounded by throwing for two TDs and running for one in the comeback win. The Seminoles need to rely on their running game with Lorenzo Booker and Leon Washington and then they can open it up to their talented, big play wideouts (Chris Davis and Greg Carr). The defense, which was extremely strong early in the season, has given up 24 or more points the last 4 games. The defense can gain some of its reputation back this Saturday against the Wolfpack.

    Free Pick from Platinum Plays: take N.C State and Florida State over 48 points.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    Detroit @ Minnesota on Sunday, November 6thIf you smell something while you’re reading this, it’s probably the stench emanating from the “Motor Cityâ€Â

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 4 2005 1:44pm
26. 0 likes

    TheLockerRoomReport

    Welcome to Week 10 of this season's Locker Room Report where the nation's top handicappers provide analysis of the biggest match-ups in college and pro football each and every week at no charge! Last week, the recent winning trend by our panel was reversed, but there were still plenty of highlights. The super computers over at CSS churned out a victory on Maryland as the Terrapins gave Florida State all they could handle. The Sharpshooter was right on target with Denver rolling it up over Philadelphia at Mile High. The Razor was sharp again, popping the champagne cork at "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" with Georgia/Florida under the total. And The Scout didn't let you miss out on the winning ticket from "Big D" as the Cowboys handled the Cards with ease. This week our panel launches your second half run with insight into the critical match-ups that you care about, as always, free of charge. So enjoy and we'll see you here every week this season. Let's get 'em!!!

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Iowa @ Northwestern on Saturday, November 5th

    The Iowa Hawkeyes have not been the powerhouse they were supposed to be this year. The 5-3(3-2) Hawkeyes are gaining momentum and having last week off won't hurt them this week at Northwestern. Although Drew Tate and Albert Young are starting to put up the numbers their supposed to, it's too late to get to the top of the Big 10. Northwestern has surprised a lot of people this year, covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games with a total breakdown last week at home against Michigan. The Wilcats also 5-3(3-2) are stuck in the middle of the Big 10 with nowhere to go. This week the magic won't be back as the Hawkeyes look to gain some respect.

    Free Pick from The Scout: IOWA -2½ OVER NORTHWESTERN

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    Texas A&M @ Texas Tech on Saturday, November 5th

    The line on this game is Texas Tech -16'. The Red Raiders are ranked 16th, but it's not because of their defense. It's their Potent offense. The only blemish they've had has come against a great Texas squad. And that is to be expected. Don't be fooled by Texas A&M's 5-3 record. They are not that good. In this rivalry game, it should remain close for the majority of the game, but Tech will pull away late in the game. If we had to play a side we'd take Texas A&M +16'. However, the real play is the total. This is a gift from Vegas. Both these teams went under the total against a tough Baylor defense. But other than that, only three of the other eleven opportunities have gone under and this game will be no different. Look for a shootout. Texas Tech does not have a defense, maybe they do, but they just want to showcase their potent offense. A&M will play the same style game. It will be a very fun game to watch and make money on.

    Free Pick from Computer Sports: this game is over the total.

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    Tennessee @ Notre Dame on Saturday, November 5th

    The 3-4 Volunteers of Tennessee travel to South Bend to face the 5-2 Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. Tennessee will be led by QB Rick Clausen and RB Gerald Riggs. Tennessee had high hopes early in the season, but have seen their season fall apart the last 3 weeks losing 3 in a row while never scoring over 15 in any of the losses. Notre Dame on the other hand has a great season underway under new coach Charlie Weis. The Fighting Irish are 5-2 with the losses against strong teams Michigan ST and USC, both defeats were by 3 points. The Irish will be led by QB Brady Quinn, RB Darius Walker and WRs Jeff Samardzija and Maurice Stovall. Quinn has an impressive 20 TDs and only 4 ints., with Samardzija catching 11 of the TDs. RB Walker provides balance with over 600 yds. rushing and a solid 4.3 yard per carry average. While the Irish defense has been suspect, the Volunteer offense has shown nothing to make me think that they can take advantage of it.

    Free Pick from The Nevada Sharpshooter: The Sharpshooter picks Notre Dame to cover the 8 point spread over Tennessee.

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    Missouri @ Colorado on Saturday, November 5th

    A classic Big 12 match-up with the North Division lead at stake. Colorado perhaps has the most to lose as they hover at the bottom of the Top 25, and are reeling from a close call against also-rans Kansas State. Colorado looks to clinch the Big 12 North division with a win in Boulder, along with a little help from other games on the board. Missouri has the most to gain with a win, as they can win the division with a tiebreaker, but they have a steep hill to climb. They’ve won only once in Boulder in the last 20 years and they showed below average offensive production against Kansas last Saturday. For bettors, a comparison may yield more clues. Colorado is 4-4 ats while Missouri is 3-4. Colorado’s average margin of victory at home is a solid 23.5, while Missouri’s road average is 8. That alone points to a 15.5-point Colorado win. With tailback Hugh Charles questionable, the line is down in the 11-range. There is a good chance Charles will return, and even if he doesn’t, the number still holds enough value for bettors to take advantage.

    Free pick from Dr. Vegas: Colorado -11 over Missouri

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    Miami, FL @ Virginia Tech on Saturday, November 5th

    No doubt the biggest game on the schedule this Saturday as Virginia Tech hosts Miami-Fla in a huge battle of Top 10 teams. The Hokies, ranked 3rd in every major poll in the country, will have the huge advantage of playing this game at home in Lane Stadium where they just seem to be invincible. The Hokies are an incredible 27-7 ATS as a favorite of 3½-10 points since 1992, and they've taken care of home turf covering 11 of their last 15 in Blacksberg including a 31-7 thumping of Miami in 2003. Canes in a rare underdog spot where they're 9-5 ATS since 1992, and they've won the last 2 outright when getting points. The two best defenses in the country will be on display Saturday night on ESPN, but i think the difference will be the offense of Virginia Tech and QB Marcus Vick. Vick has been terrific throwing the ball lately, and he's mobile enough to create when the rush is on. Where as Miami QB Wright is prone to making mistakes, and isn't as creative or elusive under pressure.

    Free Pick from Mike Wynn: Miami mistakes against an opportunistic Hokies defense should spell their doom. Recommend laying the points with the home team here.

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    Wisconsin @ Penn State on Saturday, November 5thWisconsin (8-1, 5-1, BCS 12) is in the hunt for their 4th BIG-10 championship in coach/athletic director Barry Alvarez's 16th and final year despite returning only 9 starters from 2004. Alvarez leaves a legacy of transforming a perennial loser to a national power with exceptional recruiting and a focus on dominating the rushing game. Junior RB Brian Calhoun (254 for 1218 and 19 TD rush, 36 for 439 and 2 TD receiving) leads the nation with 21 TD and follows the long line of Badger backs that have thrived behind Madison's traditionally dominant offensive lines. Wisconsin has only 15 seniors on the roster but 3 are found at the interior line, punching holes for 186.9 yards on the ground per game, and 6'8" 303 pound junior LT Joe Thomas has been strong protecting QB John Stocco's (130 of 213 for 1858, 15 TD, 7 INT) backside. Passing has always taken a back seat for Bucky but the junior Stocco is better than most and has a pair of big-play targets in 6'3" 190 WR Jonathon Orr (29 for 456, 6 TD) and 5'11" 175 WR Brandon Williams (37 for 630, 4 TD), who doubles as a electrifying return man averaging 31.0 per kick return and 16.7 per punt return. The Badger defense has been generous (176.4 rush, 249.6 pass), but has held opponents to 24.4 points with 19 turnovers and 20 sacks. Wisconsin's defensive line starts 3 sophomores and a freshman with 6'5" 302 RDT Nick Hayden (44 T, 7 TFL, 3 ½ S) the best of the bunch. The backers are small, making the Badger scheme look like a 4-7 at times but the return of 6'2" 228 SLB Mark Zalewski (48 T, 8 ½ TFL) from injury will balance a squad led by 6'1" 208 WLB Dontez Sanders (69 T, 4 TFL). Safety Joe Stellmacher (54 T, INT) and freshman CB Jake Ikegwuonu (19 T, 3 INT) have moved into starting roles, adding intensity to the cover group. P Ken DeBauche may be the best in the nation, averaging 45.8, and dropping 16 of 37 inside the 20 with just 2 touchbacks. Penn State's (8-1, 5-1, BCS 7) Joe Paterno (351-117-3) was written off by many but his Lions have Beaver Stadium (grass, 108,000) rocking again and his team headed for a 32nd bowl appearance in his 40th season as head coach. State's offensive attack is balanced (212.1 rush, 216.1 pass) and productive (35.7 points per), anchored by an experienced (4 seniors, 1 junior) offensive line and ignited by dual-threat QB Michael Robinson. The junior Robinson (118 of 224 for 1754, 13 TD, 7 INT) is the team's 2nd leading rusher (117 for 570) and has found the end zone 10 times on the ground. You turn your back on this kid at your peril, so defenses are forced to play zone rather than man-to-man, leaving holes for a great trio of freshmen wide outs with WR's Deon Butler (27 for 507, 6 TD), Jordan Norwood (23 for 282), and Derrick Williams (22 for 289, TD) all capable of stretching the field, although Williams will miss (arm). Penn State's traditionally strong halfback and tight end are capably if not spectacularly filled by 6'2" 224 RB Tony Hunt (130 for 807, 3 TD) and 6'5" 260 TE Isaac Smolko (9 for 164). The Nitanny Lion defense is unquestionably one of the nation's best, allowing just 103.7 rushing, 192.9 passing, and 16.1 points per in the offense-happy Big 10. State starts 7 seniors and 3 juniors and the lineup has been stable all season with the 11 starters ranking 1-11 in tackles for the year. A ferocious front 7 is led by LDE Tamba Hali (45 T, 11 TFL, 7 S) and OLB Paul Posluszny (94 T, 6 ½ TFL, 2 S) plus the pair of 6'0" 200 SS Calvin Lowry (60 T, 3 INT) and 6'2" 212 FS Chris Harrell (68 T, INT) hit like linebackers.

    Free Pick from #1 Sports: Alvarez has always had his role model, Joe Paterno's, number and, with the Big 10 championship on the line, a rout is unlikely in Happy Valley. Take Wisconsin + 10 ½.

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    North Carolina State @ Florida State on Saturday, November 5thThis ACC match up consists of two teams coming off big comeback wins last Saturday. The Wolfpack, down 14-0 in the 3rd quarter, rallied for a 21-17 win over Southern Miss. Florida State, down 21-14 at halftime, went airborne to fend off a dinged up Terrapin team. Head coach, Chuck Amato, has plenty of worries and they don't concern just the game at hand. The Raleigh fans have grown disconcerted with the Wolfpack football program and have started leaving the games early or not coming at all. N.C State's current streak in the ACC is 5-11 and prompted A.D. Lee Fowler to write an open letter asking Wolfpack fans for their patience. Against Southern Miss, Amato finally replaced inconsistent 5th yr Sr Jay Davis with Soph Marcus Stone with hopes of sparking the offense. Freshman Andre Brown ran for 248 yards against Southern Miss. Four 1st half turnovers almost ruined Brown's huge rushing day for the Wolfpack and if they turn the ball over like that to Florida State, they'll be in for a long day. Florida State ranks in the top half of ACC with both their offense and defense, however, Fr QB Drew Weatherford will need to turn the ball over less. His 2 early interceptions against the Terps helped put the 'Noles in a 24-14 hole midway through the 3rd quarter. He then rebounded by throwing for two TDs and running for one in the comeback win. The Seminoles need to rely on their running game with Lorenzo Booker and Leon Washington and then they can open it up to their talented, big play wideouts (Chris Davis and Greg Carr). The defense, which was extremely strong early in the season, has given up 24 or more points the last 4 games. The defense can gain some of its reputation back this Saturday against the Wolfpack.

    Free Pick from Platinum Plays: take N.C State and Florida State over 48 points.

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    Detroit @ Minnesota on Sunday, November 6thIf you smell something while you’re reading this, it’s probably the stench emanating from the “Motor Cityâ€Â

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 4 2005 1:44pm
27. 0 likes

    KEVIN O’NEILL’S

    THE MAX

    The Maximum Profit Football Weekly

    • Volume 6 Issue 11 November 3-7, 2005 •

    COLLEGES HEAT UP, ICE COLD NFL

    DRAGS US DOWN. STARDUST SECOND

    ROUND MATCHUP THIS FRIDAY NIGHT.

    Limits of the Monitoring Process: I’ve been meaning to make this point for the while, but waiting for a time when it wasn’t self-serving. We will be monitored at 4-3-1 on our late phone service last weekend, but the vast majority of customers had a losing weekend. How? Our supplemental teasers/first halves/second halves did poorly. Usually those are profit builders for us that aren’t reflected in the monitoring process. They usually do real well for us but to quote the records is just taking my word for it. In the modern era, when everyone has access to all the supplemental stuff, can play early, can play at the half, etc., it is unfortunate that there is not a monitoring process for that. But still, despite these limitations, the only reason not to be monitored is to hide your true record.

    Stardust Friday Night: If you’re in Las Vegas Friday night, please stop by the Stardust Sports Book, where I’ll be matched up against Andy Iskoe in a second round matchup in the Stardust Invitational. The show, which is broadcast throughout the Western US by powerful KDWN radio in Las Vegas, the show is from 9 to 10PM Pacific Time. Stick around afterwards to say hello.

    Hoops: Been getting some calls about basketball, with the NBA starting up this week. We’ll let the NBA play for a week or two and then let you know. We’ve won in the NBA impressively for three straight years and hope to do it again.

    Last Week: We detailed our phone service weekend above. The Midweek Phone call is weathering a cold spell, losing last week. This publication went 5-5-1 last week. My NFL selections are ice cold in the Max. Dave Fobare propped us up with a couple of wins. When I congratulated him on the wins he pointed out they were both very narrow decisions. Such winnings are just as green. Good work, Dave.

    Copyright 2005. All Rights Reserved.

    Published by Strategic Sports Publishing

    8610 Roswell Road. Suite 900-300. Atlanta, Georgia 30350

    Phone (770.649.1078) Fax (770.234.5051) Email (kevino@bellsouth.net)

    SELECTIONS: November 3-7, 2005

    College Football

    Thursday, November 3, 2005 Panthers Rising

    Pittsburgh (+21) over @Louisville

    After a disastrous start, losing to their first four 1-A opponents, Pitt has been improving lately. They’ve won three straight and seem to be know what they’re doing now. In retrospect, obviously there is no shame in losing to Notre Dame and Rutgers, so maybe Pitt wasn’t as bad as we thought. They do have an experienced coaching staff and a lot of talent. The pass defense is impressive, they allow less than 6 yards per pass attempt and have 10 interceptions while allowing only 9 TD passes.

    Obviously Louisville is a challenge for the Panthers. Elvis Dumervil has been a sack machine and the ‘ville has been blowing people out at home. This line shows that they have enormously high power rating for a team that isn’t even in the Top 25. They’re undefeated at home and have scored 44 points or more in 5 of their 7 games. But the Cards allow nearly 28 points per game and now that Pitt QB Tyler Palko has settled into the new offense that vulnerable defense will make this high pointspread difficult to cover. Pitt hangs around for a while here. Louisville by only 14.

    Saturday, November 5, 2005

    Eagles’ Grounded

    @North Carolina (+4½) over Boston College

    BC had their biggest game of the season last Thursday night against Virginia Tech and they were thoroughly dominated in the 30-10 loss. The Eagles were outgained 492-183. BC has played three straight bland games, escaping from early deficits to beat Virginia and Wake Forest at home before Thursday night’s loss. Against Virginia, BC was trailing 14-7 when UVA tackle Bill Butler took a cheap shot at BC defensive lineman Mathias Kiwanuka, injuring the All-American. That fired up the Eagles and they were able to come back to win. BC also trailed Wake Forest all day before coming back late to win, though never threatening to cover. So BC has shown themselves vulnerable in ACC play and UNC is somewhere in the neighborhood of those two teams, having beaten Virginia (Wake isn’t on their schedule).

    North Carolina played well in the first half at Miami on Saturday, to the point where they dropped a TD pass that would have given them a 24-7 lead before Miami’s superior talent, speed, and Orange Bowl aura took over.

    BC is a good team, but a team that doesn’t have the superior athletes in this one, which is an edge they had in their early non-conference schedule against teams like BYU, Army, and Ball State. The Eagles expected better quarterback play from Quinton Porter and have been working Matt Ryan into the mix with mixed success. The Tar Heels are less accomplished and less fundamentally sound than the Eagles, but they have the talent to compete with them to the final gun in this one, making the points worth taking. UNC by 2.

    In Their Wake

    Wake Forest (+8½) over @Georgia Tech

    Wake Forest is a very difficult team to play. Their offense is an anachronism in a day and age where passing is the rage. Coach Jim Grobe’s ideal is to run the ball twice as much as he passes it. They run the ball from all kinds of angles and the quarterback has a lot of options in the course of every play. There isn’t another offense like theirs in the ACC. After a tough start the Demon Deacons have been very competitive in conference play. They blew out Duke 44-6 on Saturday. More importantly, they beat Clemson and North Carolina State and scared the daylights out of the opposition in road games at Boston College (never trailed until 1:18 left in the game) and at Florida State (trailed by only 3 late in the third).

    Another aspect of Wake Forest being difficult to play has to do with opposing coaches having trouble getting their team up to play the Deacons. Wake Forest never gets any preseason publicity and is not a high point on anyone’s schedule. That is a problem that the Georgia Tech coaches will have in their preparation for this game. Not only are the Yellow Jackets coming off of a dramatic last second win over their hated rival Clemson, but their three games following this one are at Virginia (revenge from a 30-10 loss last year), at Miami-FL, and at Georgia, their traditional rival. At 5-2 Georgia Tech has a measure of satisfaction, and they should. But as much as the coaches will talk about this game this remains the least important game on the Yellow Jacket schedule.

    Jon Tenuta of Georgia Tech is an excellent defensive coordinator and his charges became the first defense to hold Clemson without a TD in over two years. But on offense, the Jackets are less than the sum of their parts. PJ Daniels is a good running back and Calvin Johnson is a terrific wideout. But Reggie Ball makes a lot of mistakes at QB. Wake Forest RB Chris Barclay ran for 204 yards in Saturday’s romp over Duke, and there is plenty of depth at RB for Wake. At this point there is really no difference between Wake QB’s Mauk and Randolph, the fundamentals of this game favor Wake no matter which capable QB goes. Georgia Tech hasn’t faced an offense like this (and didn’t face Wake Forest last year). Georgia Tech by only 1.

    Volunteering for Dog Success Tennessee (+8½) over @Notre Dame

    Tennessee has struggled offensively, but many of their opponents (Florida, Georgia, Alabama) field defenses far superior to the Notre Dame D. That being said, the Vols are having problems on offense. Quarterbacks Ainge and Clausen have both been having rugged outing after rugged outing. But like the rest of the good teams in the ACC, Tennessee has a superior defense that is the best defense that Notre Dame has faced by a considerable margin.

    No question that Notre Dame has the superior offense in this game. But their losses to both Michigan State and USC were shootouts against teams with vulnerable defenses. The Vols could really give Brady Quinn a hard time here. Notre Dame also has the superior coaching by a considerable margin. But while Phil Fulmer has been a butcher in recent years as a favorite, he has been a very solid underdog, going 6-1 as a dog since the start of last season. In fact, the underdog is an incredible 17-3 over that same period in Tennessee games. You have to wonder if Notre Dame will lose some of their momentum in their bye week. Tough to buck the well-coached Irish, but that’s part of the reason this line is so high. Keep in mind that the only team with a winning record that Notre Dame has beaten is Michigan. Taking the points with a live dog. Notre Dame by only 2.

    Hard Trying Bulldogs

    @Mississippi State (+ 17) over Alabama

    Alabama sports an exceptional defense and can run the ball. But since the injury to deep threat WR Tommy Prothro (and what an injury it was, the poor kid spent 26 days in the hospital) the Crimson Tide have struggled mightily to get anything going offensively. They proceeded to score only 13 points

    at Ole’ Miss and only 6 points at home against Tennessee, though the Tide won both games. The 35-3 win on Saturday over Utah State wasn’t all that impressive, as the Aggies had allowed 45 and 53 to Fresno State and Boise State in their last two games. But Bama was resting starters in the 4th quarter and could have done more. But there is a big difference between a conference road game and a home paycheck game.

    Mississippi State suffered the ignominy of losing 13-7 at Kentucky on Saturday. They are young and building from the ground up. Sylvester Croom is a good motivator. Look what he said after the Kentucky loss, “The impressive thing is we stayed in the ball game in the second half and we fought until the end to try and win the ball game…we have some guys that winning is not important to ... I am not going to call out names, but I know who they are and I won't ever forget.â€Â

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 4 2005 1:45pm
28. 0 likes

    RED SHEET ONLINE

    RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY

    88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

    NOVEMBER 5, 2005 VOLUME 37, NUMBER 10

    PENN STATE 48 - Wisconsin 17 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at PennSt minus 9, and is now minus 9½. A turnaround at Happy Valley was far from unexpected (rated 34th in the nation on our "Poll" section of the season's initial Pointwise edition), but not many envisioned such a dramatic uptick. The 10th-rated Lions are but a heart-wrenching last-second road loss to mighty Michigan, from standing at a perfect 9-0. They are led, of course, by QB Robinson, who has done just about everything asked of him. And that Nit defense has allowed just 14, 10, & 15 pts as a conference host, with those impressive numbers coming against the likes of Minnesota, OhioSt, & Purdue. The 8-1 Badgers, on the other hand, have been repeatedly stung, allowing 2,154 yds the last 4 wks. Perfect setup for this revenge play.

    RATING: PENN STATE 89

    SOUTHERN METHODIST 38 - Rice 20 - (3:00) -- Line opened at SMU minus 7, and is still minus 7. The Owls of Rice have been an embarrassment, what with their 13-game losing streak, along with a defense which has allowed 44 ppg in their last 11 outings. Their normally potent rushing offense has been decent, but still a sharp drop from their recent eye-popping run stats. They garnered their first cover of the year last week, thanks to a 21-pt 2nd half, with all 3 TDs coming off Utep turnovers. Enter the Mustangs, who've certainly turned more than few heads this season, which began with their upset of TCU in game #2, & resumed in game #4, after a pair of bombs vs TexasA&M & Tulane. Covers of 8½, 21, & 7 pts in 3 of their last 4 games. Ponies have had 2 weeks to prepare for this avenging tilt.

    RATING: SMU 89

    CENTRAL MICHIGAN 30 - Northern Illinois 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NoIllinois minus 4½, and is now minus 3. The Chippewas of Central Mich are another squad which has improved greatly since a year ago. Four straight wins & covers to move their record to 5-3, as well as a tie for the top spot in the MAC West. Moving the ball wasn't a problem in LY's 4-7 season, but containing their foes certainly was. But check this year's stop unit, which has held its last 4 opponents to 17, 10, 10, & 17 pts, & including last week's clamp-down of Toledo's normally potent offense. Offensively, QB Smith & RB Sneed (800 RYs) have been more than effi-cient. The Huskies have been without RB Wolfe, with last week's 42-pt ATS loss the result. Call another upset for Central, which has covered its last 4 games by 15 ppg.

    RATING: CENTRAL MICHIGAN 88

    ARKANSAS 33 - South Carolina 20 - (2:00) -- Line opened at Arkansas minus 4, and is now minus 4½. As we wrote in Pointwise, this one sets up perfectly for the Razorbacks, as they had an extra week to shed themselves of the effects of their heartbreaking loss to Georgia, while the Gamecocks have had no such luxury, not only from the high of upsetting Tennessee, but with Spurrier's date with his former school (Florida) dead ahead. The Arkies have been one of the more unnoticed squads, with their 2-5 log not reflecting their true worth, as losses AT Southern Cal, Alabama, & Georgia are hardly embarrassing. Check 197, 237, & 216 RYs in those 3 setbacks. Carolina depends almost entirely on QB Mitchell, as it has been held to 71, 70, & 65 RYs by quality opponents. As we said, a perfect setup.

    RATING: ARKANSAS 88

    NEVADA-RENO 45 - Hawaii 30 - (4:00) -- Line opened at Nevada minus 6½, and is still minus 6½. Don't look now, but the Wolfpack of Nevada is only 2 wins from bowl eligibility. Came up a bit short a week ago (49-14 at Boise), but even in that one, they more than held their own, stat-wise, with a narrow 460-438 yd deficit. Six turnovers. Return home, where they've scored 99 pts in their last 2 hosters (39 & 7 pt covers). Led by QB Rowe (1,861 PYs, 12 TDs), they certainly should be able to do their thing against a Rainbow squad which has allowed 41 ppg in 7 of its last 8 games. The host is 5-0 ATS in this series, with the home team on an 18-3 spread run in Reno games, as well as a 14-6 spread run in Rainbow tilts.

    RATING: NEVADA-RENO 88

    Indianapolis 31 - NEW ENGLAND 24 - (9:00 Monday) -- Line opened at Indianapolis minus 3, and is still minus. Yes, we know how juicy the 2-time defending champion Patriots appear as not only Monday dogs, but home dogs, to boot. Not only have they reigned supreme, with 3 titles in the last 4 seasons, but they've given Colt faithful sleepless nights for what seems forever, with TEN CONSECUTIVE WINS in Foxboro, including those 2 embarrassing playoff routs the past 2 years. However, this simply isn't the same NewEngland squad, with injuries, too many to mention, simply taking the expected effect. They prevailed by the narrowest of margins while hosting the Bills last Sunday, but were completely outplayed by a squad which they also have owned here. Indy sheds its huge monkey with this one.

    RATING: INDIANAPOLIS 88

    NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): WakeForest, TexasTech, IowaSt - NFL: Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indianapo-lis

    LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): Louisville (-17½ to -20); WakeForest (+10 to +7½); Navy (-10½ to -12½); WestMich (-2½ to -4½); TexTech (-14 to -16); VaTech (-4½ to -6½); OhioU (+12½ to +11); CentMich (+4½ to +3) - NFL: Jacksonville (-11 to -12½); Washington (-1 to -2) - TIME CHANGES: None.

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 4 2005 1:45pm