FOR 10/29 WEEKEND
n mex. stanford,,,, boise st.... s carolina
Dave Cokin Radio Plays..
Power Sweep from Northcoast-Key Plays
College
4* BYU over Air Force ---BYU 44 Air Force 20
3* Texas over OKLAHOMA ST---Texas 52 OKLAHOMA ST 0
3* Georgia (+) over Florida--- Georgia 16 (+) Florida 13
2* OREGON ST over Arizona--- OREGON ST 31 Arizona 13
2* NC STATE over S Mississippi---NC STATE 30 S Mississippi 13
2* KANSAS (+) over Missouri---KANSAS 24 (+) Missouri 23
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
San Diego St (+7) over Tcu---SAN DIEGO ST 34 Tcu 28
NFL
4* Washington over NY GIANTS --- Washington 28 NY GIANTS 17
3* Tampa Bay over SAN FRANCISCO---Tampa Bay 27 SAN FRANCISCO 6
2* Jacksonville over ST LOUIS---Jacksonville 23 ST LOUIS 13
2* Kansas City over SAN DIEGO---Kansas City 31 SAN DIEGO 28
posted by phantom
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Confidential Kick-Off!!
The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping
Leaders For 48 Seasons!
CKO Vol. 44 October 27 - 31, 2005 No. 9
11 *CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Toledo
Late Score Forecast:
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 32 - Toledo 28
Changing of the guard in the MAC? Rapidly-ascending Central Michigan has
already pulled upsets at Akron & Miami-Ohio this season. And confident
Chippewas have had an extra week to prepare for visit from recent conference
power Toledo. CMU has a composed, versatile sr. QB in Kent Smith (60%), a
dangerous WR & return man in jr. Damien Linson (78-yard punt return TD in
last game), and an emerging star at RB in speedy true frosh Ontario Sneed,
who has 968 total yards & 9 TDs (4 of those covering 45+ yards!). Rocket
offense is down a notch from recent high-scoring versions orchestrated by
clever o.c. Rob Spence, who left for Clemson. UT is passing for more than 80
ypg fewer than last season. And underrated Chippewa defense is permitting
only 3.7 ypc. CMU has covered 4 of last 5 as dog, while Rockets have failed
to cover last 4 away from Glass Bowl. Happenin' host might not need cushion
provided by generous points.
10 *WESTERN MICHIGAN over Kent State
Late Score Forecast:
*WESTERN MICHIGAN 37-Kent State 19
Western Michigan's offense has taken off since HC Bill Cubit made the move to
true frosh QB Tim Hiller. Hiller has completed 39 of 59 passes for 10 TDs
and just 1 interception in his three starts, during which the Bronco offense
has scored 133 points. Sr. WR Greg Jennings is leading the country in
receiving, averaging just under 10 catches per game, and he has 145
receptions, 22 for TDs, in his last 18 games. The Bronco running game has
been boosted by Hiller's production as well, as sr. RB Trovon Riley has
gained 346 yards in the last 3 games. The Broncos are making big plays on
defense and special teams, as an interception, two blocked kicks and a
fumble-return TD fueled last week's upset of Bowling Green. Kent is not
tough in the pits this season, as the Golden Flashes rank last in rushing
offense and have the second worst run defense in college football. Kent QB
Michael Machen has thrown just 4 TD passes and 10 interceptions in his last
4 games.
10 *KANSAS STATE over Colorado
Late Score Forecast:
KANSAS STATE 27 - Colorado 24
Savvy Big XII scouts believe motivated 4-3 Kansas State, which is still
fighting for a bowl bid after missing LY for 1st time since 1992, should not
be a TD+ underdog vs. banged-up CU (multiple injuries on DL). Wildcats
deserve kudos for admirably battling back from an early 16-0 deficit in
spread-covering 30-28 home loss vs. Texas A&M week ago. K-State figures to
give CU fits this week, thanks to a formidable aerial attack. Ever-improving
RS frosh QB Evridge had 357 YP & 3 TDP vs. Aggies. Evridge has developed
solid rapport with vet WR Moriera, emerging 6-3 soph Nelson (TDC in 7
straight games!) & speedy 6-0 jr. Figurs. Meanwhile, doubt Buffs emotional
QB Klatt will consistently work play-action, since average rush attack (only
4.1 ypc) won't find much room vs. tough KSU front 7 (just 119 ypg rushing,
3.5 ypc). Vengeful Wildcats haven't forgotten 38-31 loss in Boulder LY, when
CU scored winning TD on a 64-yd pass with :05 remaining. Also, K-State
hasn't lost back-to-back home games on consecutive weeks since '89.
10 *KANSAS over Missouri
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS 27 - Missouri 24
Yes, Kansas lost its fourth straight last week, falling as a visitor at
Colorado, 44-13. But there were a couple of very positive factors in that
contest. Quick QB Jason Swanson finally returned to action after being out
since the ninth game LY with a shoulder injury. Swanson, a JC transfer, hit
61.5% of his passes LY, mostly in relief while learning the Jayhawk offense.
Last week, he was 26 of 50 for 291 yards and 3 interceptions. But now that
he's shaken off the cobwebs, expect those ints. to diminish, especially vs.
a Missouri defense giving up 31 ppg. Tiger QB Brad Smith went "nuts" (246
YR, 234 YP; 3TDR, 1 TDP) last week vs. Nebraska. But KU's front seven is one
of the best in the league, allowing no TD runs the last six games. And
Jayhawks finally back in Lawrence after four weeks of games at other sites.
Swanson's running ability will help make defenders stay "at home," opening
the offense. KU has covered 4 of last 6 in this bitter rivalry and is 5-2
its last 7 overall L2Ys in Lawrence.
10 KANSAS CITY over *San Diego
Late Score Forecast:
Kansas City 31 - *San Diego 27
(Sunday, October 30)
San Diego a formidable team that's 3-4 SU and seeking to get to .500 before
the midway point of the season. But underdog K.C. (14-6-1 in role last 3+Ys)
has lots of little edges going for it. Chiefs now get the benefit of extra
prep time after playing the early Hurricane Wilma game last Friday in Miami.
OL now healthy again with LT Willie Roaf back in action. TE Tony Gonzalez (7
recs. at Miami) now back as a prime weapon on the offense after several
scheme changes ordered by HC Vermeil after staff kind of forgot about the
all-pro early in the season. Ground game once again bristling with Priest
Holmes healthy and alternating with powerful Larry Johnson. But, most of
all, defense improved with the addition of new bodies in free agency and
draft (e.g., LBs Derrick Johnson & Kendrell Bell; DBs Patrick Surtain & Sammy
Knight). Chargers have played well TY vs. rugged schedule first two months.
But value lies with dog in this one.
TOTALS: Florida-Georgia (at Jacksonville) UNDER (40.5)-QB Shockley unlikely
to play for Bulldogs, so look for conservative offense & lots of defense vs.
Gators...Philadelphia-Denver UNDER (42.5)-Bronco defense much improved TY;
Donovan McNabb laboring with injuries, while Terrell Owens contained a bit by
Denver's Champ Bailey.
HONORABLE MENTION: INDIANA (+18.5) at Michigan State-Neither defense can stop
the other team; Indiana, QB Powers can score...AUBURN (-20) vs.
Mississippi-Tigers' offense improving rapidly; defense (12 ppg) was already
there...MIAMI-FLORIDA (-20) vs. North Carolina-Payback time for well-rested,
defensively-strong, offensively-improving Hurricanes...CLEVELAND (+2) at
Houston-In the land of blind, the one-eyed man (Cleveland is 2-4; Houston
0-6) is king...NEW ORLEANS (-2) vs. Miami (at Baton Rouge)-"Zebras" have hurt
Saints past two weeks, but Miami is 0-3 vs. spread on the road, scoring 11
ppg.
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#3 10-26-2005, 07:21 AM
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 2:32pm -
0 likes
NORTHWESTERN (HC) 30 - Michigan 24 - (7:00 EDT - ESPN2) -- Line opened at Michigan minus 4, and
is now minus 3. The Wildcats current run has been about as impressive as it gets. Three
straight upsets over the likes of Wisconsin, Purdue, & MichiganSt, scoring 51, 34, & 49 pts,
while compiling an astounding 674, 603, & 533 yds. And that on the heels of that excruciatingly
difficult, gut wrenching loss to PennSt in the final seconds. The Lions, by the way,
are only one last second play from being unbeaten, while Wisconsin is perfect vs all other
opponents. NW is 20th in rushing & 11th in passing, behind Sutton & Basanez, while
ranking 4th in total "O". The Wolves have been in one killer after another (5 straight draining
efforts with final margins of 3, 3, 3, 2, & 3 pts). 'Cats superb 23-11 ATS as HDs.
RATING: NORTHWESTERN 89
PENN STATE 41 - Purdue 14 - (3:30) -- Line opened at PennSt minus 14, and is now minus 16. Power
Ratings are very true guidelines when figuring probable lines on upcoming games. Well, if
this one had been played on opening week, the spot would have been somewhere in the
range of a FG, with the Boilers the chalks. Well, things have changed dramatically, with
Paterno's resurgent Lions possibly the most improved team in the nation, while the Boilermakers
among the most disappointing. Returning all eleven defensive starters from a unit
which ranked 15th in scoring "D", things just continue to deteriorate, as their current 5-
game slide contains a 38 ppg "D". Now going with a frosh at QB (Palmer), but can't stop
the bleeding. Lion counterpart, Robinson, simply leads a clicking "O". Romper!
RATING: PENN STATE 89
Clemson 30 - GEORGIA TECH 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at GaTech minus 3, and is still minus 3. The dog
gold mine that is the ACC is enjoying yet another mother lode season, with the Tigers of
Clemson one of the main players. Thus far, the dog has covered all five ACC contests
involving CU, not the least of which was their last outing, in which they rolled past NCSt, 31-
10, as a 4-pt pup, posting edges of 243-103 in rushing, 246-175 in passing. And that one
came on the heels of 3 consecutive grinding losses. Speaking of upsets, this series shows
an incredible 15-1 dog edge. A year ago, Tech pulled off an amazing win, with 2 TDs in the
final 1:50, winning in the final 0:11. Long memories. GT far from dependable at home, just
1-7 lately. And its only cover since Sept 3rd, came by just 4 pts vs Duke.
RATING: CLEMSON 88
Cincinnati 24 - SYRACUSE 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Syracuse minus 5, and is still minus 5. Believe
us, we have seen first hand the absolute debacle that has become the 'Cuse offense. The
insertion of the West Coast "O" has been an unmitigated disaster. The Orange are the
worst team in the land, when it comes to converting 3rd downs. Just 18%, & fresh off a 0-
for-12 showing in that all-important category. Syracuse's main problem hasn't changed for
the past dozen or so years, namely an offensive line which can't block. Try 12, 13, 11, &11
FDs the past 4 games. Their "dome record" took a 24½ pt spread pasting in their last
hoster, thus a huge crack in that formerly comfy edge. The Bearcats have progressed
steadily, since having to replace 16 starters. Dog is 32-16 ATS in Cincy tilts.
RATING: CINCINNATI 88
BRIGHAM YOUNG 38 - Air Force 20 - (3:00) -- Line opened at BYU minus 6, and is still minus 6. We
originally called for a spread push in this one, in deference to the Falcons catching the
Coogs off their trip to NoDame, along with service academies constant "up" psyche edge.
However, a closer look shows that the Falcons are particularly vulnerable before facing
Army, as their 6-12 spread log in that situation attests. As a matter of fact, the 'Force lost by
18 pts at ColoradoSt, the week before taking on Navy. Fresh off an embarrassing loss to
TCU (39-pt ATS setback), where they had a 326-148 PY deficit, this should be more of
same, as Coog QB Beck already has 2,219 PYs, & threw for 319 yds in LY's 41-24 win.
RATING: BRIGHAM YOUNG 88
NEW ENGLAND 27 - Buffalo 13 - (8:30 - ESPN) -- Line opened at NwEngland minus 7, and is now minus
8. Not much question as to which way to go here. No matter the situation, the Patriots
simply own the Bills in Foxboro, including a combined 60-6 score in their last 2 series host
setups. Buffalo has the better defense, of course, which is nothing new, but the Bills ranked
2nd in the NFL a year ago, & were pulverized here, 29-6, with a 25-8 FD deficit, as well as
a 428-123 yd shortage. To make matters worse, the Pats, who have been struggling at 3-
3, due largely to the injury bug, are off their bye week. Just what the doctor ordered.
Buffalo is 0-3, both SU & ATS on the road, by an average score of 25-9.
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): UTEP, Southern Cal, Florida St, Miami-Fla - NFL: Lions, Saints, Steelers
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 5:06pm -
0 likes
Confidential Kick-Off!!
The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping
Leaders For 48 Seasons!
CKO Vol. 44 October 27 - 31, 2005 No. 9
11 *CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Toledo
Late Score Forecast:
*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 32 - Toledo 28
Changing of the guard in the MAC? Rapidly-ascending Central Michigan has
already pulled upsets at Akron & Miami-Ohio this season. And confident
Chippewas have had an extra week to prepare for visit from recent conference
power Toledo. CMU has a composed, versatile sr. QB in Kent Smith (60%), a
dangerous WR & return man in jr. Damien Linson (78-yard punt return TD in
last game), and an emerging star at RB in speedy true frosh Ontario Sneed,
who has 968 total yards & 9 TDs (4 of those covering 45+ yards!). Rocket
offense is down a notch from recent high-scoring versions orchestrated by
clever o.c. Rob Spence, who left for Clemson. UT is passing for more than 80
ypg fewer than last season. And underrated Chippewa defense is permitting
only 3.7 ypc. CMU has covered 4 of last 5 as dog, while Rockets have failed
to cover last 4 away from Glass Bowl. Happenin' host might not need cushion
provided by generous points.
10 *WESTERN MICHIGAN over Kent State
Late Score Forecast:
*WESTERN MICHIGAN 37-Kent State 19
Western Michigan's offense has taken off since HC Bill Cubit made the move to
true frosh QB Tim Hiller. Hiller has completed 39 of 59 passes for 10 TDs
and just 1 interception in his three starts, during which the Bronco offense
has scored 133 points. Sr. WR Greg Jennings is leading the country in
receiving, averaging just under 10 catches per game, and he has 145
receptions, 22 for TDs, in his last 18 games. The Bronco running game has
been boosted by Hiller's production as well, as sr. RB Trovon Riley has
gained 346 yards in the last 3 games. The Broncos are making big plays on
defense and special teams, as an interception, two blocked kicks and a
fumble-return TD fueled last week's upset of Bowling Green. Kent is not
tough in the pits this season, as the Golden Flashes rank last in rushing
offense and have the second worst run defense in college football. Kent QB
Michael Machen has thrown just 4 TD passes and 10 interceptions in his last
4 games.
10 *KANSAS STATE over Colorado
Late Score Forecast:
KANSAS STATE 27 - Colorado 24
Savvy Big XII scouts believe motivated 4-3 Kansas State, which is still
fighting for a bowl bid after missing LY for 1st time since 1992, should not
be a TD+ underdog vs. banged-up CU (multiple injuries on DL). Wildcats
deserve kudos for admirably battling back from an early 16-0 deficit in
spread-covering 30-28 home loss vs. Texas A&M week ago. K-State figures to
give CU fits this week, thanks to a formidable aerial attack. Ever-improving
RS frosh QB Evridge had 357 YP & 3 TDP vs. Aggies. Evridge has developed
solid rapport with vet WR Moriera, emerging 6-3 soph Nelson (TDC in 7
straight games!) & speedy 6-0 jr. Figurs. Meanwhile, doubt Buffs emotional
QB Klatt will consistently work play-action, since average rush attack (only
4.1 ypc) won't find much room vs. tough KSU front 7 (just 119 ypg rushing,
3.5 ypc). Vengeful Wildcats haven't forgotten 38-31 loss in Boulder LY, when
CU scored winning TD on a 64-yd pass with :05 remaining. Also, K-State
hasn't lost back-to-back home games on consecutive weeks since '89.
10 *KANSAS over Missouri
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS 27 - Missouri 24
Yes, Kansas lost its fourth straight last week, falling as a visitor at
Colorado, 44-13. But there were a couple of very positive factors in that
contest. Quick QB Jason Swanson finally returned to action after being out
since the ninth game LY with a shoulder injury. Swanson, a JC transfer, hit
61.5% of his passes LY, mostly in relief while learning the Jayhawk offense.
Last week, he was 26 of 50 for 291 yards and 3 interceptions. But now that
he's shaken off the cobwebs, expect those ints. to diminish, especially vs.
a Missouri defense giving up 31 ppg. Tiger QB Brad Smith went "nuts" (246
YR, 234 YP; 3TDR, 1 TDP) last week vs. Nebraska. But KU's front seven is one
of the best in the league, allowing no TD runs the last six games. And
Jayhawks finally back in Lawrence after four weeks of games at other sites.
Swanson's running ability will help make defenders stay "at home," opening
the offense. KU has covered 4 of last 6 in this bitter rivalry and is 5-2
its last 7 overall L2Ys in Lawrence.
10 KANSAS CITY over *San Diego
Late Score Forecast:
Kansas City 31 - *San Diego 27
(Sunday, October 30)
San Diego a formidable team that's 3-4 SU and seeking to get to .500 before
the midway point of the season. But underdog K.C. (14-6-1 in role last 3+Ys)
has lots of little edges going for it. Chiefs now get the benefit of extra
prep time after playing the early Hurricane Wilma game last Friday in Miami.
OL now healthy again with LT Willie Roaf back in action. TE Tony Gonzalez (7
recs. at Miami) now back as a prime weapon on the offense after several
scheme changes ordered by HC Vermeil after staff kind of forgot about the
all-pro early in the season. Ground game once again bristling with Priest
Holmes healthy and alternating with powerful Larry Johnson. But, most of
all, defense improved with the addition of new bodies in free agency and
draft (e.g., LBs Derrick Johnson & Kendrell Bell; DBs Patrick Surtain & Sammy
Knight). Chargers have played well TY vs. rugged schedule first two months.
But value lies with dog in this one.
TOTALS: Florida-Georgia (at Jacksonville) UNDER (40.5)-QB Shockley unlikely
to play for Bulldogs, so look for conservative offense & lots of defense vs.
Gators...Philadelphia-Denver UNDER (42.5)-Bronco defense much improved TY;
Donovan McNabb laboring with injuries, while Terrell Owens contained a bit by
Denver's Champ Bailey.
HONORABLE MENTION: INDIANA (+18.5) at Michigan State-Neither defense can stop
the other team; Indiana, QB Powers can score...AUBURN (-20) vs.
Mississippi-Tigers' offense improving rapidly; defense (12 ppg) was already
there...MIAMI-FLORIDA (-20) vs. North Carolina-Payback time for well-rested,
defensively-strong, offensively-improving Hurricanes...CLEVELAND (+2) at
Houston-In the land of blind, the one-eyed man (Cleveland is 2-4; Houston
0-6) is king...NEW ORLEANS (-2) vs. Miami (at Baton Rouge)-"Zebras" have hurt
Saints past two weeks, but Miami is 0-3 vs. spread on the road, scoring 11
ppg.
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 5:08pm -
0 likes
Winning Points NFL
****BEST BET
*New Orleans over Miami by 21
It’s not often, if at all, you’ll find us putting the inconsistent and unpredictable Saints at the top of the ticket. This week is that exception. The Saints are going to have a lot of motivation playing for the first time this season in Louisiana as this game is in Baton Rouge, which is just about 80 miles from New Orleans. There are strong rumors about Saints owner Tom Benson moving his team away to San Antonio. Saints fans don’t want to see that and they’re going to be out in force to support their team. This is a very winnable game for the Saints. The Dolphins have lost three in a row. They have looked especially bad on the road losing 17-7 to the Jets, committing a team record 18 penalties in a 20-14 loss to the Bills and losing 27-13 to the Buccaneers. Miami quarterback Gus Frerotte is playing terrible. He has completed less than 50 percent of his passes four of the past five games. Ricky Williams is still feeling his way around. The Dolphins have one of the least talented offensive lines. The Saints’ strength on defense is an active line that should control the line of scrimmage. Not helping matters for Miami is Junior Seau (check status) has missed the last two games with a calf injury and Jason Taylor has been playing on one foot. The Dolphins’ secondary also is banged-up and vulnerable to the Saints’ speed at the flanks. It’s a tough week for the Miami players to focus because of Hurricane Wilma, which caused their home game last week to be moved up two days and played on Friday. Nick Saban shows promise as a head coach for Miami. There’s not much Saban can do in the pro game, however, without sufficient talent. He’s an upgrade on Dave Wannstedt, but the Dolphins don’t have an upgrade in talent. NEW ORLEANS 31-10.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
****BEST BET
*Detroit over Chicago by 20
The days of Joey Harrington, otherwise known as the anti-Tom Brady, are over. Jeff Garcia is healthy and has replaced Harrington, who lost 33 of his 44 starts while throwing 58 interceptions. That’s a tremendous lift for the Lions. The Lions have been playing good defense. They’ve come up with 13 interceptions and have only allowed more than 21 points once. But until now they didn’t think their efforts were being rewarded because Harrington was sabotaging everything. It was to the point where if Harrington threw a pass more than 10 yards it was considered a trick play. Defenses can no longer put eight men in the box to key solely on Kevin Jones with Garcia passing now. Also helping the Lions is the return of fullback Corey Schlesinger, an excellent lead blocker. Jones has been having a down season. That should change with Garcia and Schlesinger in the lineup. It would be an additional boost if Roy Williams and suspended Charles Rogers are back, too, this week. This is a huge revenge spot for Detroit. The Bears humiliated them back in Week 2, winning 38-6. Harrington was especially brutal throwing five interceptions in that loss and getting into an on-the-field argument with Williams about an incomplete pass. The Lions are 15-5 ATS at home in same-season revenge situations. They have defeated Chicago the past three times at home. The last four in Detroit have gone under the total. The Bears have gone under in 10 of their last 12 games. They have a rookie quarterback, Kyle Orton, who is prone to mistakes and have been at less than full strength in the offensive line. The quarterback switch to the veteran Garcia, coupled with revenge and a strong home field edge, are enough for the Lions to solidly beat the Bears. DETROIT 29-9.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
**PREFERRED
Minnesota over *Carolina by 3
It has been several weeks since the boating sex scandal and the Vikings are starting to get their confidence back along with some of their injured players. So while the Vikings haven’t exactly been shipshape they’re fortunate to play in the weak NFC North. Carolina has won its last three, but the Panthers haven’t looked particularly good, playing just to the level of their weak competition. They hung on to edge Green Bay at home, nipped the Cardinals and beat the Lions by one point. They were out-gained in two of those wins. The Panthers’ ground game has been disappointing, they could be without star linebacker Dan Morgan, who has a dislocated shoulder, and they’re vulnerable through the air. Brett Favre threw four touchdown passes against the Panthers. Josh McCown threw for 394 yards and two touchdowns. Even the wretched Joey Harrington passed for 200 yards against Carolina’s vulnerable secondary. Let’s not write off Daunte Culpepper yet. He has back his best wide receiver, Nate Burleson, and the Vikings’ makeshift offensive line is getting more experience playing together. The Panthers have been terrible laying points. Carolina is 6-17 ATS as a favorite, 4-13 ATS as a home favorite. MINNESOTA 24-21.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
*San Francisco over Tampa Bay by 1
Does 49ers Coach Mike Nolan feels his team can honestly win the NFC West? The 49ers would have trouble finishing first in the Sun Belt Conference. Yet this is a good spot to back the home ‘dog 49ers. The Buccaneers are coming off a bye and this will be the first start for backup quarterback Chris Simms, who replaces an injured Brian Griese. So the Bucs are going to play very conservatively. They just want Simms to manage the game, not necessarily win it by throwing a lot of downfield passes. You know Bucs Coach Jon Gruden doesn’t think too highly of Simms since he had him backing up Griese, who wasn’t exactly setting the league on fire. Tampa Bay’s defense is playing at a high level, looking the best since its Super Bowl victory four years ago. Gruden doesn’t want his offense taking any risks with Simms. This style isn’t conducive to laying big points on the road. Tampa Bay has a much more important game on deck – hosting the Panthers next week. The Bucs are 2-10-1 ATS their past 13 road contests. They’re not as good as their 5-1 record may indicate. They snuck past the Packers by one point and needed a referee to overturn a touchdown in order to beat the Lions at home. SAN FRANISCO 17-16.
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 5:08pm -
0 likes
Winning Points COLLEGE FOOTBALL
****BEST BET
BRIGHAM YOUNG* over AIR FORCE by 24
There can always be a tendency when the scoreboard shows a certain kind of result to believe that it told the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. That was hardly the case in Brigham Young’s 49-23 defeat at South Bend last Saturday – we saw a lot of things that we like, in terms of how they pertain to this matchup. Yet the fact that the final score was as one-sided as it was means that no one else pays any real attention, and we get to lay a short price. With four Mountain West defeats already, Fisher DeBerry’s team is out of the conference race before we ever get out of October, which is very rare. But when we look at the particulars it is no surprise. The running game is averaging more than 20 yards less per contest more than any other season in this millennium, and the pass defense rates among the nation’s very worst. That makes this particular matchup perhaps their most difficult of the season, and we expect a carry-over from the 41-24 domination by the Cougars at Colorado Springs last year. John Beck threw for 314 yards and four TD’s in that road rout, but he is much more comfortable in the new offensive schemes of Robert Anne, especially since he can stretch his arm and throw it downfield. Meanwhile Bronco Mendenhall will always have his X’s in the right places vs. DeBerry’s O’s, and the past two weeks we have seen how solid this defense can be against the run. They held physical Colorado State and Notre Dame ground games to a combined 77 yards, with the 44 to the Fighting Irish an item that did not show up on the final scoreboard at all. B.Y.U. 38-14.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
***BEST BET
NORTHWESTERN* over MICHIGAN by 14
We obviously did not get a “valueâ€Â
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 5:09pm -
0 likes
Pointwise Sports
NCAA
1 - UTEP, Northwestern
2 - Southern Miss
3 - Buffalo
4 - Clemson, New Mexico
5 - South Carolina, Penn St.
NFL
2 - Titans
3 - Saints
4 - Lions, Panthers
5 - Cowboys
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 5:09pm -
0 likes
Redsheet
89 - Northwestern, Penn St.
88 - Clemson, Cincinnati U., BYU, Patriots
87 - UTEP, USC, Florida St., Miami (FL), Lions, Saints, Steelers
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 5:09pm -
0 likes
The Goldsheet
College Key Releases
Penn St., Clemson, Nebraska
NFL Key Releases
Broncos, Patriots, KC/SD Over
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 5:10pm -
0 likes
Saturday, October 29th
(TC) Purdue at Penn State, 3:30 EST ABC
Purdue: 1-8 ATS in October
Penn State: 7-1 Under off a win by 17+ points
Indiana at Michigan State, 12:00 EST
Indiana: 0-6 ATS away off 3+ conference games
Michigan State: 10-1 Over off a home conference loss
Wisconsin at Illinois, 12:00 EST ESPN
Wisconsin: 10-2 ATS on artificial turf
Illinois: 5-15 ATS vs. conference opponents
Cincinnati at Syracuse, 12:00 EST
Cincinnati: 2-8 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
Syracuse: 12-4 ATS in home games
Clemson at Georgia Tech, 12:00 EST ESPN2
Clemson: 5-1 Under off a win by 21+ points
Georgia Tech: 15-5 ATS at home off a road conference win
(TC) Maryland at Florida State, 3:30 EST ESPNU
Maryland: 7-18 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points
Florida State: 6-0 Under off a conference win by 21+ points
Oklahoma at Nebraska, 12:00 EST ABC
Oklahoma: 3-13 ATS away after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Nebraska: 8-0 ATS off an Over
Wake Forest at Duke, 12:00 EST
Wake Forest: 9-2 Over in road games
Duke: 0-7 ATS this season
Southern Mississippi at NC State, 12:00 EST
Southern Miss: 9-3 ATS off a SU win as an underdog
NC State: 1-8 ATS as a favorite
Mississippi at Auburn, 12:30 EST
Mississippi: 10-2 Under as an underdog
Auburn: 8-0 ATS in October
(TC) Utah State at Alabama, 3:00 EST
Utah State: 2-8 ATS after committing 1 or 0 turnovers
Alabama: 8-2 Under off a home win
(TC) Colorado at Kansas State, 2:00 EST
Colorado: 18-5 Over after scoring 42+ points
Kansas State: 27-13 ATS off a straight up loss
(TC) Iowa State at Texas A&M, 3:30 EST
Iowa State: 0-6 ATS off an Over
Texas A&M: 16-4 ATS off BB games forcing 3+ turnovers
Miami OH at Temple, 1:00 EST
Miami OH: 8-2 Over off a road game
Temple: 2-11 ATS vs. MAC opponents
Toledo at Central Michigan, 1:00 EST
Toledo: 11-1 ATS after scoring 37+ points
Central Michigan: 3-15 ATS off a conference win
Ohio U at Buffalo, 1:30 EST
Ohio U: 1-9 ATS in road games
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS at home in October
Kent State at Western Michigan, 2:00 EST
Kent State: 6-0 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
Western Michigan: 0-7 ATS at home in October
Central Florida at East Carolina, 2:00 EST
Central Florida: 3-12 ATS in road games
East Carolina: 6-1 ATS this season
Air Force at BYU, 3:00 EST
Air Force: 2-18 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
BYU: 11-3 Under off a loss by 21+ points
(TC) UTEP at Rice, 6:00 EST
UTEP: 10-1 ATS in October
Rice: 0-6 ATS this season
(TC) Ohio State at Minnesota, 12:00 EST ABC
Ohio State: 11-3 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Minnesota: 8-2 Over in home games
Navy at Rutgers, 3:30 EST
Navy: 11-2 ATS as an underdog
Rutgers: 0-6 ATS as a favorite
Georgia at Florida, 3:30 EST CBS
Georgia: 16-5 ATS away off an Under
Florida: 6-1 Under this season
Washington State at USC, 3:30 EST ABC
Washington State: 0-8 ATS off a road game
USC: 11-3 ATS as a home favorite
North Carolina at Miami FL, 3:30 EST ABC
North Carolina: 10-1 ATS vs. conference opponents
Miami FL: 1-5 ATS off a bye week
(TC) Texas at Oklahoma State, 7:00 EST TBS
Texas: 7-0 ATS this season
Oklahoma State: 1-5 ATS this season
Ball State at Northern Illinois, 4:00 EST
Ball State: 1-9 ATS away off a conference game
Northern Illinois: 19-6 ATS at home off a road game
Akron at Bowling Green, 4:00 EST
Akron: 2-8 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points
Bowling Green: 6-1 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite
(TC) UCLA at Stanford, 6:30 EST FSN
UCLA: 13-5 ATS last 18 lined games
Stanford: 22-10 Over off a conference win
(TC) TCU at San Diego State, 8:00 EST
TCU: 1-6 ATS as a road favorite
San Diego State: 10-2 Under in October
Washington at Arizona State, 6:30 EST
Washington: 1-8 ATS away off a conference game
Arizona State: 12-3 Over as a favorite
(TC) Missouri at Kansas, 1:00 EST
Missouri: 7-0 ATS off BB conference wins
Kansas: 14-34 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
Mississippi State at Kentucky, 7:00 EST
Mississippi State: 2-11 ATS in road games
Kentucky: 13-2 ATS at home after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Fresno State at Hawaii, 7:00 EST ABC
Fresno State: 5-20 ATS away in October
Hawaii: 11-2 Over off BB ATS wins
San Jose State at Louisiana Tech, 7:00 EST
San Jose State: 6-1 Under off a combined score of 60+ points
Louisiana Tech: 2-11 ATS off a straight up win
Michigan at Northwestern, 7:00 EST ESPN2
Michigan: 0-9 ATS off a win as a road underdog
Northwestern: 10-2 ATS after allowing 475+ total yards
(TC) Texas Tech at Baylor, 12:30 EST
Texas Tech: 19-5 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
Baylor: 8-2 Under off an ATS loss
South Carolina at Tennessee, 7:45 EST ESPN
South Carolina: 6-1 Over in October
Tennessee: 2-10 ATS as a favorite
(TC) Marshall at Tulane, 7:00 EST
Marshall: 2-10 ATS off a conference game
Tulane: 5-1 Under with a line of +3 to -3
Idaho at New Mexico State, 8:00 EST
Idaho: 0-6 ATS away off a conference game
New Mexico State: 13-4 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points
(TC) Arizona at Oregon State, 4:00 EST
Arizona: 16-35 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
Oregon State: 9-2 ATS off a conference game
(TC) Nevada at Boise State, 3:00 EST
Nevada: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog
Boise State: 16-3 ATS off a road conference win
Added Games:
Troy State at Louisiana Lafayette, 5:00 EST
Troy State: 1-5 ATS this season
LA Lafayette: 5-0 Under in home games
Middle Tennessee State at Florida International, 6:00 EST
Mid Tenn State: 6-0 Under off a straight up loss
Florida International: 4-1 Under this season
Write-In Game:
North Texas at LSU, 8:00 EST
North Texas: 0-8 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
LSU: 7-0 ATS off a home win by 3 points or less
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 5:46pm -
0 likes
Sunday, October 30th
Washington at New York Giants, 1:00 EST
Washington: 10-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
NY Giants: 6-18 ATS after the first month of the season
Green Bay at Cincinnati, 1:00 EST
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less
Cincinnati: 9-2 Under in home games
Chicago at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Chicago: 10-1 Under away off a home game
Detroit: 7-0 ATS revenging a same-season loss
Minnesota at Carolina, 1:00 EST
Minnesota: 4-13 ATS off a home game
Carolina: 16-5 ATS off ATS losses in 3 of their last 4 games
Oakland at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Oakland: 2-9 ATS in October
Tennessee: 8-1 Over off BB losses
Arizona at Dallas, 1:00 EST
Arizona: 4-14 ATS as a road underdog
Dallas: 8-1 Under as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Cleveland at Houston, 1:00 EST
Cleveland: 9-2 Under away after scoring 14 points or less
Houston: 7-1 ATS off BB ATS losses
(TC) Miami at New Orleans, 4:05 EST
Miami: 2-10 ATS off BB games allowing 25+ points
New Orleans: 5-1 Under as a home favorite of 7 points or less
Jacksonville at St. Louis, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville: 8-2 Over off a bye week
St. Louis: 9-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
Kansas City at San Diego, 4:05 EST
Kansas City: 10-2 Over after winning 2 of their last 3 games
San Diego: 10-2 ATS off an Under
Tampa Bay at San Francisco, 4:15 EST
Tampa Bay: 2-9 ATS in road games
San Francisco: 5-1 Over as an underdog
Philadelphia at Denver, 4:15 EST
Philadelphia: 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Denver: 14-4 Over vs. NFC East opponents
Buffalo at New England, 8:30 EST ESPN
Buffalo: 9-21 ATS away off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
New England: 16-3 ATS in home games
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 5:46pm -
0 likes
The Locker Room Report
Welcome to the Locker Room Report. We're on a little bit of a roll. We went 6-3-1 last week and 7-4 the week before that. Stick with us and reap all the benefits. Enjoy this week's free picks.
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Clemson @ Georgia Tech on Saturday, October 29th
Two mid-level ACC teams doing battle in a classic matchup. The last time these two teams played was 9/11/04 where Georgia Tech pulled off a thrilling 28-24 win. Either team could have won that one, and the fans went home feeling they saw something special. Whether or not history is repeated this week is yet to be seen. These teams are relatively evenly matched. Georgia Tech is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 SU. Their average total is 43.3, while their average margin of victory at home this year is 6 points. They’ve scored 134 points and have given up 126. Clemson is 4-3 ATS and SU, and their average total 48.4. Their average margin of victory on the road is 7. They’ve scored 191 points and have given up 148. Looking at this information, it is perhaps more telling as to the total than the side. The average total score for both teams this year is 46, while the combined mode (the scores occurring most by each team, added together) is 52. Though the side is a bit difficult to predict, the total is the easy play here.
Free Pick from Dr. Vegas: Clemson vs Georgia Tech OVER 45.
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Maryland @ Florida State on Saturday, October 29th
Maryland is not as bad as one might think! Coming in at (4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS) the Terps are not the ACC power that they've been in recent seasons, but their losses have come against respectable opposition. Offensively they have some firepower, but the losses of key defensive personnel have changed their dominating style of play! FSU (6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS) has also seen it's star-power diminish on the National scene. This is still a very good football team led by QB Drew Weatherford and a always tenacious defense, but their simply not as good as recent Seminole teams that have made championship runs. This should be a smack'em in the mouth game with both teams trying to establish the run. Look for Maryland to do enough on both offense and D to keep it close throughout. FSU is not explosive enough on O to blow the Terps out.
Free Pick from Computer Sports: MARYLAND+17
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Oklahoma @ Nebraska on Saturday, October 29th
It's the first time in 40 meeting that neither Oklahoma or Nebraska is ranked in the national polls heading into this contest. Oklahoma, just 4-3 on the season, is looking to finish the seaon off strong, while the Cornhuskers are still very much alive in the Big12 North Division. Defense's have dominated this game in the past and there's no reason to think otherwise in this one today. Sooners rank 17th nationally in total defense while Nebraska is not far behind at 25th in the country. Since 1984 these two teams have combined for 40 points or less in 11 of the 17 games, and the winner has held the oppostion to single digits in 10 of those games. Oklahoma offense has been inconsistent with star Adrian Peterson nursing a bad ankle over the last couple games, and that's bad news for a Sooner club that has averaged just 7.6 points per game in their last 5 trips to Lincoln. It should be a physical, hard fought game Saturday in Lincoln, and neither team would want it to be any other way.
Free Pick from Mike Wynn: The total is low in this one, but I think the final score will be even lower, and we'll side with the under here.
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Ohio State @ Minnesota on Saturday, October 29th
Yet another great Big Ten match-up this week in the Metrodome. The Gophers have had extra time to prepare for this game and that’s especially helpful against a quality opponent like the Buckeyes. Bryan Cupito wasn’t under center in the shocking loss to Wisconsin two weeks ago but he should be ready to go this week. He isn’t the key to this offense however. As we’ve seen thru seven games, the stud of this unit is Laurence Maroney. He is leading the conference in rushing (1133 yards), and he’ll be the main man again this week against a rather stout Ohio State defense. Glen Mason believes his team can run the ball on anybody and this will be the toughest test of that theory this year. Although Maroney gets most of the ink, and rightfully so, backup rb Gary Russell is a noteworthy player. He actually averages more yards per carry (7.6 / 5.4) and has scored more touchdowns (11 / 9) than the man he plays behind. Buckeyes head coach Jim Tressel has finally realized that Troy Smith is the right guy at the quarterback position for his team. In the win last week at Indiana, Smith threw a td pass and ran for two scores, although the competition will ceratainly be a bit tougher this week. The determining factor in this contest will be the play of the Ohio State defense. Texas and Michigan State are the only teams to score in the 20’s against the Buckeye stoppers. It will be their job to hold down the Minny attack this Saturday. The posted total of 49 on this game seems a bit high to me as I had it measured in the low to mid 40’s. That means we’ll look to come in underneath what the oddsmaker has indicated.
Free Pick from Big Time Sports: Ohio State/Minnesota under
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Georgia @ Florida on Saturday, October 29th
It is time to party! It is the 83rd edition of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail party as the Georgia Bulldogs meet the Florida Gators in Jacksonville, Florida. The Bulldogs hold a 45-35-2 series lead including a 31-24 victory last year. Prior to that the Gators had won 4 straight. The Bulldogs come into this one with a perfect 7-0 mark, 5-0 in the SEC, and ranked #4. Last week, Georgia snuck past Arkansas 23-20 but took a major blow on offense with the injuries to offensive leader QB D.J. Shockley. Shockley was helped off the field and is expected to miss this week's contest. Without Shockley, Junior Joe Tereshinski will take over the signal calling duties. Tereshinski has seen limited action so far this year. In 4 appearances he is 13-23 for 207 yards with no TDs and 1 Int. As for the Gators, they are coming off their off week after losing at LSU 21-17 two weeks ago. Florida is currently 5-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC. The AP has put them in their #19 spot. When you talk about these two teams, you usually think about the offenses, but it is the defenses that have been the strength of both of these teams. Georgia is currently ranked 5th in the nation in scoring defense at 13.7 points/game. Florida is almost as good ranked 11th at 16.1 points/game. Last year they did put up some points scoring 55, but traditionally this has been a low scoring affair. Before last year, the past 3 games hadn't had more than 34 point scored. I look for another low scoring affair in this one. Also make note because this Sunday the big one goes. It is the NFL LOCK OF THE YEAR and it will be up and ready by Midnight eastern on Saturday Night.
Free Pick from Razorsharp Sports: Take the GEORGIA/FLORIDA game to go UNDER the total of 41½
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North Carolina @ Miami on Saturday, October 29th
ACC action on Saturday comes on the heels of Hurricane Wilma. Don't look for a sloppy track to slow down Miami however. The Canes (5-1 SU-4-2 ATS) are starting to pick it up offensively. Led by QB Kyle Wright and super-fast WR Sinorice Moss, Miami can score from anywhere on the field. North Carolina has improved over the last few seasons, but will struggle at stopping the powerful Miami 0. Defense has been a major problem area, and offensively they're certainly not Texas or USC! The Heels will struggle to score and give up numerous big plays on Saturday!
Free Pick from Huddle Up Sports: Look for Miami to roll. They're rested and should feast on inferior athletes. MIAMI HURRICANES-20
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Michigan @ Northwestern on Saturday, October 29th
Michigan (5-3, 3-2) has become the coach Lloyd Carr-diac kids with each of their 5 conference games decided in the final seconds of regulation or overtime, the last of which was a 23-20 OT win at Iowa. The nation's 2nd toughest schedule has tested the Wolverines, making a 3rd straight Big 10 title doubtful, but there are glimmers of hope. 6'7" 335 pound RT Jake Long has returned to an experienced (3 seniors and 2 juniors) and beefy (6'5 ½" 318 per man) offensive line and explosive RB Michael Hart (122/573, 4 TD), who has yet to fumble in 386 career touches, is healthy again, joining RBs Kevin Gandy (76/297, TD) and Max Martin (48/217, 2 TD) to boost an offensive attack that ranks in the bottom half of the Big 10 in most categories. Sophomore QB Chad Henne (143/249 for 1685, 15 TD, 4 INT) has a new favorite in WR Jason Avant (60/769, 6 TD), with Braylon Edwards gone to the NFL, and keep an eye on freshman WR Mario Manningham (17/311, 5 TD) going deep. This offense puts up just 24.8 points per conference game but won't beat themselves, committing just 35.4 penalty yards and 1.25 turnovers per. The Michigan defense is versatile and battle tested. The front gives both 3-4 and 4-3 looks, depending where 6'2" 263 pound rush-LB LaMarr Woodley (41 T, 14 TFL, 5 S) decides to terrorize you from. 6'4" 333 NT Gabe Watson (30 T, 3 S) and DT/DE 6'6" 311 Alan Branch (18 T, 2 S) own the middle giving the 6 or 7 man rotation of LBs clear shots plus CBs Leon Hall (40 T, 2 S, 2 INT) and Grant Mason (69 T, INT) are also big hitters. If the Wolverine defense has a weakness, it's at the safeties where freshman FS Brandon Harrison and sophomore SS Jamar Adams have replaced injured starters. Northwestern (5-2, 3- 1) pounded Michigan State 49-14 last trip out and now look to defend Ryan Field (47,130 cap, natural) in primetime on the big stage of ESPN. NU is often dismissed as the Harvard of the Big 10 in the sports world (graduated 100% of 1999-2000 incoming freshmen on the football team) but coach Randy Walker (35-43 at NU) and the Wildcat's #4 ranked total offense in the nation have the purple rally towels waving in Evanston. 5th-year senior QB Brett Basenez (179/265 for 2181, 12 TD, INT) has thrown for 9139 career yards and is an absolute iron man, having actually played with a broken leg in 2002 and a dislocated throwing arm in 2004. The Cats returned only 6'7" 335 RT Zach Strief to the offensive line this season and lost starting RB Brandon Robertson in the opener but have surrendered just 5 sacks and have produced 213.9 yards per game and 19 TD on the ground to go with 315.4 yards per game and 13 TD through the air, while racking up 200 first downs. True freshman 5'9 190 pound RB Tyrell Sutton (157/970, 14 TD) has the ADs of the nation's perennial powerhouses asking some very pointed questions of their recruiting staffs and no less than 8 receivers have at least 100 yards on the year, the best of which is WR Shawn Herbert (54/573, 4 TD). The Northwestern defense is young, starting 2 freshmen and 2 sophomores, and has given up a whopping 504.3 yards per contest, but have forced 20 turnovers against some of the NCAA's best offenses. Senior leadership is provided by athletic DT Barry Colefield (33 T, 4 ½ TFL, 5 pass breakups), speedy MLB McGarigle (88 T, 6 ½ TFL, 2 S), and Big 10 Defensive Player of the Week FS Herschel Henderson (21 T, 2 INT) but this group gets very little pressure on the pocket and has a long way to go.
Free Pick from #1 Sports: The Wildcats have played 11 true freshmen in 2005 and may just be too young to know they aren't supposed to beat Michigan. Plus, you better have a darn good reason to lay points on the road in the Big 10. Take Northwestern + 3.
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Washington @ New York Giants on Sunday, October 30th
After this Sunday's game between the G-Men and the Redskins, one of these two teams will no longer be tied for first in the competitive NFC East Division. The Redskins have been riding the hot hand of veteran QB Mark Brunell, who took over for Patrick Ramsey midway through game one of the regular season when Ramsey went down with a concussion. Brunell has formed a lethal passing combination with WR Santana Moss (123.8 yds/gm) and his quarterback rating of 98.3 has him tied with Peyton Manning for 3rd in the NFL. The Redskins can also grind out yards on the ground with a big offensive line and RBs Clinton Portis (90.7 yds/gm) and changeup back Ladell Betts (38 yds/gm), who adds a physical factor to the running game. Defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams, has his no-name defense playing at a high level and they are only giving up a stingy 17.2 points per game. However, they will have their hands full this Sunday with Eli Manning and company. Manning, only in his 2nd year, is playing at a high level as witnessed by the Giants late touchdown drive against the Broncos culminated by a winning TD to WR Amani Toomer with 5 seconds remaining. The Giants lead the league in scoring averaging 28.8 points per game. Manning's favorite target is big wideout Plaxico Burress, who's hauled in 36 catches and 5 TDs so far but may not be able to go this Sunday with a bad back. Jeremy Shockey adds the threat of the big play from the tight end position and veteran RB Tiki Barber is a dual threat out of the backfield. PK Jay Feely, a free agent signee in the off season, has stabilized the kicking game. Both teams are (3-0) at home this season and Manning seems to play much better in front of the home crowd. In the NFL this year it seems the games are either ultra low scoring or a shootout. I think Manning and company will get their points and the Redskins will capitalize on a mediocre Giants stop team.
Free Pick from Platinum Plays: Redskins/Giants over 42 points.
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Arizona @ Dallas on Sunday, October 30th
In the last few years this matchup has been a game of "here you take it" ugly football with the outcome a toss-up. This year Dallas has become somewhat of a contender, but Arizona is still struggling to keep their starting lineup healthy. Even if QB Kurt Warner did not get hurt the offense still has holes, with WR Larry Fitzgerald a lone bright spot. The Cowboys puzzle is starting to come together this year, but Coach Parcells still has his work cut out for him. There is little doubt the Cowboys will win this week, it's just a matter of by how much. RB Julius Jones is still questionable for this weeks game, but the Cowboys won't need him to put away the Cardinals on Sunday.
Free Pick from The Scout: DALLAS -9 OVER ARIZONA
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Jacksonville @ St. Louis on Sunday, October 30th
Jacksonville (4-2) came out of the bye week in 2004 at 5-2, facing a weak schedule, but ran out of gas, missing the playoffs at 9-7. Coach Jack Del Rio is taking a different approach this season, marking his maturity. This season, the Jaguar's final 10 opponents have a combined 18-35 record (and that includes the Colts) and Del Rio fought his intense nature to give his squad significant time off during the break for the stretch run. The Jags get it done with defense and coordinator Mike Smith has earned plenty of our respect. The former Winnipeg Blue Bomber coached Tennessee Tech to top-10 national defensive rankings in 1998 & 1999, was the architect of the Ravens defense from 1999-2002, and has another winner in the making. It begins up front with DTs 6'6" 312 Marcus Stroud and 6'7" 328 John Henderson who do much more than absorb blockers. This pair has combined for just 1 sack but use their height and athleticism to take away all inside passing lanes, leaving the glory to lesser talented DEs Paul Spicer (17 T, 3 ½ S) and Reggie Hayward (17 T, 5 ½ S), plus free up undersized 6'1" 230 MLB Mike Peterson (44 T, 2 INT) to use his speed to the ball. Jacksonville's defensive backs are big hitters, averaging 6'1" 204 at the corners (Mathis and Wright) and 6'2" 210 at the safeties (Cooper and Grant). The Jaguar offense is a more modest group, but expect improvement with rookie 6'5" 305 LT Kalif Barnes a huge upgrade over Ephraim Salaam who has taken his rightful spot on the bench, giving RBs Fred Taylor (105/401 TD) and Greg Jones (30/139 TD) room to run and saving QB Byron Leftwich (98/176 for 1205, 8 TD, 4 INT) money on life insurance. Veteran WR Jimmy Smith (23/404, 4 TD) is still the team's leader but shares the attention with big, young WRs 6'4" 223 Reggie Williams (21/246) and up-and-coming rookie 6'6" 242 Matt Jones (12/109 TD). P Chris Hanson (45.1 gross, 38.4 net, 17 of 37 inside 20) and K Josh Scobee (11 of 13 FG attempts) make up the NFL's best kicking pair. St. Louis's (3-4) reserves stepped up big in a 28-17 comeback win over New Orleans last week and will be called on again. With coach Mike Martz gone for the season (acute bacterial infection), fiery throw-back Joe Vitt will stalk the sidelines of the Edward Jones Dome, and although QB Marc Bulger threw on Monday for the first time since the Ram's Monday Night Meltdown, QB Jamie Martin (35/50 for 332, TD, 2 INT) will likely get the call. Martin was much better last trip out even without star WRs Issac Bruce (toe, probably won't play) and Tory Holt (probably will return). Instead, he got the job done with WR Shawn McDonald (24/278) and speedy WR Kevin Curtis (32/452 3 TD), throwing for 198 yards without a pick. The workhorse of this crew, with the former "Greatest Show on Turf" sidelined, has been bruising 6'2" 231 pound RB Stephen "Train" Jackson (113/480, 6 TD) running behind a St. Louis offensive line that is steadily improving as 6'7" 320 rookie RT Alex "Neanderthal" Barron matures. In his 13th season, it doesn't look like Marshall Faulk will ever be 100% again. The Ram defense gets its best player LDE Leonard Little (20 T, 4 S) back after attending his brother's funeral last week, but this group is young (5 starters with 3 years experience or less) and has been torched for 30.0 points per game so far. St. Louis gets plenty of quarterback pressure with 22 team sacks but a decimated defensive backfield has only capitalized with 4 INT all season. This week it looks like 5'10 192 CB DeJuan Groce and 5'10" 189 CB Travis Fisher will get the starts.
Free Pick from Totals 4U: The number has not been set on this match up yet, but we expect it will be too low with both offensive lines playing better and St. Louis's vulnerability to the deep ball on the fast track. Think about Jacksonville/St. Louis over and check back here for the final call later in the week.
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Philadelphia @ Denver on Sunday, October 30th
The 4-2 Eagles travel to Denver to take on the 5-2 Broncos. The Broncos are in 1st place in the AFC West, while the Eagles are in a three way tie in the NFC East. These two teams both rely on strong defenses but vary greatly in offensive strategies. The Broncos run the ball the majority of the time with Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell, while the Eagles rely on the pass the vast majority of the time. McNabb’s main targets will be WR Terrell Owens and RB Brian Westbrook. So far this season luck has definitely been on the side of the Eagles who have had two big comebacks against Kansas City and San Diego. In the San Diego game the Eagles blocked a field goal attempt and ran it back for a TD in the closing minutes for a three point win. No team enjoys a bigger home field advantage than the Broncos. 4-0 at home with wins over quality teams such as New England and Kansas City, the Broncos are one of the best home teams in the league. Behind their powerful running game and mistake free play of QB Jake Plummer I like the Broncos to cover the spread of 3.5, although, I must admit, I would be tempted to buy a point to make it 2.5.
Free Pick from The Nevada Sharpshooter: The Sharpshooter picks the Denver Broncos –3.5 over the Philadelphia Eagles.
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 10:07pm -
0 likes
Dave Bender
$pread Winner$
Week 8 plays as of Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys -7'. Lots of fairly large point spreads this week, but after due consideration, we will just have to grit our teeth and get on with it. Cowboys need a win to stay competitive in the toughest division in the NFL. A loss here would move them into last place in the division at the half way point of the season. Doesn't bode well even for a wild card spot when the competition is the Eagles, who will probably win the division, the Redskins who own a tie breaker over the "Boys" and the Giants, who are a half game ahead of Dallas as we speak. Bill Parcells knows all this, and will put up a "W" this week. You can set your watch by that. The Tuna hasn't got a game to give away right now. The question is can the Cardinals keep it close enough to cover a fairly large 7' point spread. Not known for being road warriors, although they looked good against moderate opposition last week at home, I looked up their two road games so far this season. Both are losses by more than 20 points, which qualifies as a "blow out" in my book. Let's just say they have improved over their earlier road games. That still comes out to a 10 point loss this week. Another 20 point loss is more likely than a 3 point squeaker. Seattle had lots more firepower last week vs Dallas and got 13 points. Cardinals are not likely to get that many. Just in case they do, Cowboys are about to light up the scoreboard vs much lighter opposition than last week and playing at Texas stadium vs on the road. Take the better team, lay the points.
Washington Redskins +3. This number is already moving lower, so bet it early. Redskins have fixed their offensive problems, as demonstrated in their ability to put up 52 last week. Granted they won't get anything like that vs a decent Giants defense, but they will get enough to have a 50-50 shot at winning this game courtesy of their own quality defense. I actually think they are the better team in this contest and look for them to win outright. If there is another coach besides Bill Parcells who appreciates how important a win is right here, it's Joe Gibbs. Now that he has the "Skins" firing on all 8 cylinders, this may be the team to beat in the NFC East. If it's close, the Redskins are known to squeak out last minute wins too, not just the Giants. Solid team on the road. Take the points, and hang on to the coffee table. It should be a doozy of a game.
Redskins/Giants OVER 41' Taking a shot at winning a double bet here, with minimum risk of taking a double loss. The magic number is 18 for the Redskins. When they put up that many points, the Giants will be unable to cover the spread without also taking the game over the total. In the event the Redskins have trouble scoring, the Giants may well take the game over the total anyway. Actually with the new improved Redskins offense, either team could score in the 30s, making the over playable in it's own right. As an insurance policy on the above play, it puts us in the position to add to bankroll, without exposing us to a whole lot more risk. When the Skins get their 18, you can switch channels. It takes a lot of the excitement out of it when you can't lose.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 The Bucs are not a high powered offense, but when you're playing vs a secondary that allowed 52 points last week, you don't have to be. The chance of a shut out looms as the 49ers traded their former starting QB away to Tampa last week, Is it possible that he has a chip on his shoulder this week, as he returns to San Francisco? Bucs will probably start Chris Simms at QB, but he has lots more experience in the NFL than rookie Alex Smith, who may sit this one out with an injury. Even if Smith plays, don't expect the Bucs to give away a mercy TD in the 4th quarter, as the Redskins did last week. That was Joe Gibbs with a 40 point lead. This time the head coach is "Chucky", and freebies are not his thing. Clear mis-match. 49ers much more likely to throw interceptions than touchdowns. Take the better team. Note from last week that people who lay the double digit points are much better off than people who take them. "Bargain hunting" is almost never a bargain.
Pittsburgh Steelers -8'. Another division game for the Steelers, who still trail the Bengals by a half a game, although they now have a tie breaker over them. No love lost between these two teams, either. Ravens with their medium strength offense haven't won on the road yet this season. They probably won't win a road game until they draw an opponent with a medium strength defense. That is not the case with the Steelers, who have allowed 5 fewer points than the Ravens to date. The difference is Pittsburgh also has an offense. Ravens chances of winning the game are slim, so the big question is: Can they keep it close with their quality defense? The answer to the question this week lies in the injury report, which has Ray Lewis (2003 Defensive Player of the Year, in case you haven't heard) and Ed Reed (2004 Defensive Player of the Year) both likely to sit this one out. If that changes, the one who plays will not likely be at 100%. With Big Ben back at QB and Jerome Bettis looking like he is in top form, I will ride the Bus this week.
Back up play: Houston/Cleveland UNDER 37'. Passing on my usual bet against the Texans because it would require me to bet on the Browns. With this play, I think I've figured out a way to bet against both teams at the same time. Since both teams average 13 points per game, the total is more likely to be near 27 than 37. Both coaches know they can preserve a chance to win in the 4th quarter by playing safe, solid football and will play "not to lose" more than playing to win. Should be a real thriller with a final score somewhere around 9 to 6. Who will win? Why the 9's, of course. Trouble is I have no clue which team will get the 9. I do think this is a solid play at UNDER 37.
posted by phantom
Oct. 26 2005 10:08pm -
0 likes
Early Action Tip Sheet
October 26, 2005
Wisconsin at Illinois
Line: Wisconsin by 19
--Illinois has dropped five straight after winning its first two games of the season. Last week was extremely tough for the Fighting Illini as they lost at home 63-10 to an angry Penn State squad. While Illinois is 2-5 SU, it has a 3-4 record ATS.
--Wisconsin is coming off a 31-20 home win over Purdue. The Badgers were +3 in the turnover category in the game to bring their season turnover line to +7. Now at 7-1 SU, Wisconsin has cashed tickets in six of their eight games this season.
--In this matchup, Wisconsin has won two straight over Illinois including last season’s 24-7 victory in Madison. In that game, the Illini managed just 42 rushing yards against what was a top-ranked Badger defense. Wisconsin was favored in the game and covered the 15-point line.
--This game will come down to how well the Wisconsin offense matches up against the Illinois defense. The Badgers have the nation’s seventh-ranked scoring offense averaging 39.5 points per game, while the Illini defense is ranked 116th in the country, allowing 39.9 PPG.
--Kickoff is slated for 12:00 p.m. Eastern with live TV coverage provided by ESPN.
Oklahoma at Nebraska
Line: Nebraska by 1 ½
--Oklahoma comes into this game off back-to-back wins, including last week’s 37-30 triumph over Baylor in Norman. The Sooners have now won four straight over unranked opponents bringing their season record to 4-3. Unfortunately for its backers, Oklahoma is just 2-5 ATS on the year.
--Nebraska has lost two of its last three games after taking a 41-24 beating at Missouri last week. The game was the first non-cover by Nebraska since September 17th.
--Last season, Oklahoma had no problem handling the west coast attack as it pounded Nebraska 30-3, giving the home team four straight wins in this rivalry. The 27-point victory failed to cover the 29 ½ point spread, however. It was the first time in five years that the home team did not cash tickets.
--Nebraska has won eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, posting a 7-3 spread record over that stretch.
--Two solid run defenses may steal the spotlight in this weeks contest. Oklahoma is ranked third in the nation in run defense allowing just 76.9 yards per game. Nebraska isn’t far behind, ranked ninth, and allowing just 95.3 yards per game
--ABC or ESPN Game Plan will have live TV coverage of this noon EST kickoff.
North Carolina at Miami
Line: Miami by 20
--North Carolina is coming off a 7-5 home win over Virginia last week to bring their record back to .500. The Tar Heels have won three of their last four games both straight up and against the number. They are 4-2 ATS on the season.
--Miami has had two weeks to prepare for this game although Hurricane Wilma has been a major distraction to the players this week. The football Hurricanes have won five straight since their 10-7 loss to Florida St. in the season opener but have let down backers as they are just 2-3 ATS in those five games. Last week, Miami came out strong but the “second stringâ€Â
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:39pm -
0 likes
Mejia's Selections
By Tony Mejia
SportsLine.com Staff Writer Weekly predictions of the nation's Division I college football action.
Last week: 41-12 |Season to date: 342-106 (76.3%)
2004 season record: 469-156 (75.0 %)
Projected Scores
Week 9
Georgia 24 Florida 23
LSU 38 North Texas 3
Middle Tennessee 31 Florida International 17
Troy 26 La.-Lafayette 13
Central Florida 27 East Carolina 24
Southern Mississippi 28 North Carolina State 20
Penn State 27 Purdue 20
Texas A&M 20 Iowa State 17
Wisconsin 48 Illinois 2
New Mexico 24 Colorado State 20
Miami (Ohio) 47 Temple 10
Western Michigan 30 Kent State 20
Toledo 51 Central Michigan 21
Ohio 19 Buffalo 13
Northern Illinois 38 Ball State 16
Bowling Green 47 Akron 24
Fresno State 31 Hawaii 20
Wake Forest 37 Duke 17
Kansas State 20 Colorado 17
Clemson 31 Georgia Tech 26
Southern California 41 Washington State 17
Tennessee 31 South Carolina 13
Louisiana Tech 31 San Jose State 20
San Diego State 37 TCU 34
Texas-El Paso 51 Rice 17
Texas 34 Oklahoma State 3
Syracuse 27 Cincinnati 17
Northwestern 30 Michigan 27
UCLA 41 Stanford 35
Virginia Tech 31 Boston College 10
New Mexico State 36 Idaho 20
Oklahoma 21 Nebraska 13
Rutgers 21 Navy 13
Boise State 40 Nevada 24
Kansas 24 Missouri 19
Texas Tech 41 Baylor 24
Kentucky 27 Mississippi State 19
Minnesota 24 Ohio State 20
Michigan State 45 Indiana 27
Miami (Fla.) 24 North Carolina 14
Auburn 24 Mississippi 9
Arizona State 48 Washington 20
Florida State 23 Maryland 10
Oregon State 27 Arizona 10
Marshall 24 Tulane 20
Alabama 37 Utah State 6
Air Force 31 Brigham Young 23
this guy is awesome when he picks a underdog to win outright thats when i use his plays,,thats all i follow with him ,,
all his selections are straight up no spread..
he has several this week:
Georgia +4
Central Fla +2.5
So. Miss +6.5
Kansas St* +7.5
Clemson +3
San Diego St.* +7 (a lot of people are pounding TCU)
Oklahoma +1.5
Kansas* +5.5
Minnesota* +4
Marshall +1
Air Force +6.5
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:40pm -
0 likes
Gold sheet tech report 16-8 last 5 issues
Southern Miss
Navy
Hawaii
Oregon State
NFL
Wash/NY over
Pittsburg
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:41pm -
0 likes
Marc Lawrence
AWESOME ANGLE
OF THE WEEK
ATS W-L Record
Since 1980:
12-0
THE BUCK
STOPS
HERE
PLAY ON any Game Six or greater
> .600 college team playing
with rest who is not off BB wins if
they scored > 7 points in their
last game and they are playing an
undefeated conference opponent.
PLAY ON: FLORIDA
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:41pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence
4 BEST BET
CENTRAL MICHIGAN over Toledo by 6
Yes, we realize fading the Rockets in league play can be
dangerous to one's wealth, but the bottom line is they have
been money burners in '05. Enter the Chippewas, our vote
for the most improved team in the MAC. Under brilliant
young head coach Brian Kelly CMU has already beaten
Miami at Miami and a then red-hot Akron team in the
Rubber City. They also hold the master key to this week's
Smart Box (see page 3). If things go their way, the Chips can
pull the upset here. We call it!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
KANSAS ST over Colorado by 6
The Buffs have lost just two games this season, at Texas and
at Miami of Florida. Get your calculator out to determine the
number of teams who would have suffered the same fate.
Colorado has a good blend of passing and running that make
the Bison tough to defend and Kansas State isn’t exactly
stuffing people this season. The problem we have with this
game is that KSU mentor Bill Snyder is the answer to our Trivia
Teaser (see page 2) and the Wildcats stand a rock solid 27-7
ATS at home with revenge. That makes Kansas State a live
home cat here today.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
5 BEST BET
MIAMI FLA over North Carolina by 31
The Hurricanes can smell it. They righted the ship after the
loss to Florida State in the season opener and won five in a
row to position themselves for the stretch run. With games
against Georgia Tech and the two Virginia’s still ahead.
Miami knows it has to have this game and that knowledge
will make the difference. Our Incredible Stat (see page 3)
supports the Canes psyche when avenging embarrassing
defeats and none was more red-faced than last year's loss
in Chapel Hill as 21-point favorites. Kyle Wright is far better
than he was in the FSU game and we all remember what
happened to the Heels in Louisville.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3 BEST BET
KANSAS over Missouri by 7
Buffalo, Duke, North Texas and Temple are the dredges of
college football this season. They are also the only four
teams in the nation with a worse offense than Kansas.
Problematic for Missouri, though, is an inevitable letdown
following their smashing win over Nebraska. The Tigers are
1-7 ATS off back-to-back hosters and 0-3-1 ATS in the first
of back to backs as visitors. In addition, the Jayhawks are
7-1 SU & ATS at home with revenge in this series, including
4-0 SU & ATS when Missouri is off a win. We'll back this
defensive home dog in an ideal flat spot for the Tigers.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:41pm -
0 likes
Thursday, October 27th
VIRGINIA TECH over Boston Coll by 10
Boston College has been a pesky underdog of late cashing 13
tickets in the last 19 times cast in that role. The Eagles also have
the propensity to win when they’re least expected to do so.
However, Virginia Tech doesn’t roll over and die at home. The
Hokies are 16-2 SU and 12-4 ATS in their last 18 games in
Blacksburg. One of those two losses was, of course, to BC as
15-point chalk. Smart Box points us to the dog and we'll bark.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW MEXICO over Colorado St by 3
Any thoughts of lining up with the Lobos in this game were
dismissed when Colorado State’s awesome 16-3-1 ATS mark in
its last 20 as a road dog came forward. With double revenge for
back-to-back losses to New Mexico in 2003 and 2004, CSU will
be focused, to say the least, on this game. New Mexico is feisty
at home, however, so it won’t be easy. We’ll look at this later.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PENN ST over Purdue by 14
Remember that incredible statistic Tom Scott gave us last week?
He told us that, since Joe Tiller arrived at Purdue in 1997, the
Boilermakers have dressed up in the role of a road underdog 16
times and have yet to win a game in that role standing at 3-13
ATS in those 16 games. Purdue’s rookie QB had a dismal day
against the permissive Wisconsin defense. This stop unit is much
tougher. With its dismal season continuing on, Purdue isn’t
happy about anything.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MICHIGAN ST over Indiana by 20
It’s hard for us to imagine an underdog of this size possessing a
defense that is ranked 28 spots higher than its favored foe, but
that is the case with Indiana. Making this game even more
interesting is the fact that these are two teams who depend on
the passing game for success. Indiana’s pass defense is ranked
SIXTY SEVEN spots higher than Michigan State’s. Only IU’s 15
straight conference road losses (3-11-1 ATS) keeps us from taking
the Hoosiers and the points against the down-in-the-mouth
Spartans here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wisconsin over ILLINOIS by 16
With the Badgers standing at 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17
conference road wins, we’d have to believe that Illinois was
going to win the game in order to back the Illini here. Since the
Tribe is 2-21 SU in its last 23 games against winning teams
(one win was against a 1-0 San Jose State team who had just
beaten Eastern Washington) we aren’t able to do that. By the
way, the other win in that 23-game stretch? Against Wisconsin,
of course. Nonetheless, can't trust the Badgers in this price range
away from cheese country.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SYRACUSE over Cincinnati by 5
We have noted, several times, the paucity of road successes
enjoyed by the Orange over the years. In the Carrier Dome, it’s
been a different story for the Cuse. SU is 50-8 SU and 35-18-1
ATS in its last 58 home games against losing teams. Cincinnati,
meanwhile, is 2-12 SU in its last 14 road games allowing 35 ppg
along the way. You know what’s coming next. Yep! Syracuse is
32-0 ATS in its last 32 games scoring more than 28. Whew, if
only the Orange were any good (they've topped that number
just once this season).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Clemson over GEORGIA TECH by 3
Georgia Tech gets an extra week off thanks to hurricane Wilma
and the Bumblebees can use it. They came out of that Duke
game two weeks ago with a plethora of injuries, mainly to their
star players, and the extra healing time is sure to help. Before
you go laying points into the Tiger Paw, note that Clemson is
8-4 SU in its last 12 games with no loss by more than six points.
They are also seeking revenge from their only home loss last
season.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FLORIDA ST over Maryland by 24
Florida State hasn’t had many opportunities, 11 to be exact, to
play with revenge over the past two decades, especially against
out-of-state teams. The Seminoles have made the most of their
limited opportunities, winning ten of those games. Now, with
already one loss on its 2005 ticket, expect FSU to have complete
focus here. Maryland has played some good games this season
but the Terrapins were overpowered by Virginia Tech in their
last game. It doesn’t get any easier in Doak Campbell stadium,
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:42pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence:
Oklahoma over NEBRASKA by 6
At first look, this is a Nebraska play, especially if the Huskers are
the underdog. However it's hard for us to look past a dog
(check the line) that was a 30-POINT FAVORITE in the same
game last season. Yes, we love home dogs with a solid defensive
YPR, but should the Sooners puppy up we'll ride the Schooner
wagon. Remember, OU is 8-0 SU away off an ATS loss when
taking on sub .900 opposition behind Bob Stoops.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Wake Forest over DUKE by 10
A quick peek at Wake Forest’s ATS log in road wins should tell
you what applies here. The Deacons are 23-2 ATS in their last 25
ACC road wins. The two pointspread losses were, of course, to
Duke. Then again, the Big Bad Preachers are 1-5 ATS as road
chalk of more than 8 points and have won only ONE of their last
TWENTY FIVE road games by more than 14 points. Gulp.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
S Mississippi over NC STATE by 1
Just when you think it’s time to bury the Golden Eagles (lost
34-17 at home to Tulsa), they step up and whack two conference
opponents in a row, easily cashing both tickets. This team, however,
is not a Conference USA member and it certainly has better players
than USM has seen all season with the exception of Alabama.
Can’t play NC State, though. The Wolves are a paltry 2-11 ATS in
their last 13 games as home chalk while Smissy is 9-1 ATS as a road
puppy off a SU dog win. The 'Aloha Amato' chant continues.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AUBURN over Mississippi by 25
With Auburn coming off that tough loss in the battle for the
SEC West with LSU, this might be a spot for Ole Miss to make
some money. After all, the Rebels gave Alabama all it wanted
before succumbing to a last second field goal. Oh, that game
was at home and this one isn’t. So what? Ole Miss covered on
the road against Tennessee this year, against powerful LSU last
year and, in 2003, took nine points at Auburn and won the whole
game. But, our system book says to play the War Eagle, who is
5-0 ATS at home against foes seeking revenge. Just do it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ALABAMA over Utah St by 33
What in the $am hill is Utah $tate doing in Tuscaloosa in October?
We’re not sure how it happened but it is fortuitous, at worst,
for Bama to be playing this guy the week after Tennessee and
two weeks before the LSU-Auburn tandem shows up. Utah $tate
doesn’t belong here as the 30-some line attests and we’re not
going to try to prove it does. Neither will we lay the bu$hel. You
know how we feel about disinterested favorites. We'll let the
Aggie$ collect their paycheck and move on to the next game.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TEXAS A&M over Iowa St by 7
The Aggies have been one of the nation’s puzzles this season
(what else is new). Their pitiful efforts at Colorado and at home
against Baylor contradict the two home games against SMU
and Oklahoma State which A&M won by a combined 128-31.
Iowa State falls somewhere between those two groups. We can
tell you that Iowa State has revenge from their worst home loss
last season, a 31-point whipping. With Texas Tech, Oklahoma
and Texas – on deck, in the hole and limbering up – we can excuse
the Aggies for their lack of interest once again here today.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Miami OH over TEMPLE by 22
The first of back-to-back breathers for Miami can’t possibly be
of interest to the RedHawks. The Birds just want to get out of
here with a win and with no injuries. Covering a four touchdown
spread is the furthest thing from their minds. It is interesting to
note that Temple is just 2-23 SU in its last 25 chances as a home
dog (most teams are much better than that) and that Miami is
16-3 ATS in its last 19 road wins. Interesting, not persuasive.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Ohio over BUFFALO by 3
Just when we thought the North Texas-Louisiana Monroe game
was the worst one on the schedule, up pops this counter argument
to parity. First there is Ohio, with two wins and one cover in its
last 11 road games. Then there is Buffalo with just three wins in
its last 30 starts. None of our money is invested in this.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:42pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence:
W MICHIGAN over Kent St by 6
In the middle of what turned out to be a five-overtime loss to
Ball State, Western head coach Bill Cubit turned to true freshman
Tim Hiller to take over for struggling QB Robbie Haas. The
kid has played pretty well and gives the Broncos a legitimate
chance to win this game. Well, that and Kent’s 1-53 SU mark in
its last 54 road games against .251 or better opposition. We’ll
either take the Ponies and the points or do nothing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
C Florida over E CAROLINA by 3
At the beginning of the season, this game would have fit into
the Ohio-Buffalo category but this is the middle of the season
and a lot has changed as these two teams have exceeded
preseason expectations. Central Florida has won four of its last
five after suffering its 17th consecutive loss earlier this year and
East Carolina has beaten the teams it was supposed to beat. Are
the Pirates supposed to win this? In September, yes. Now, we
don't think so.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Air Force over BYU by 1
Byu doesn’t handle avenging teams well, especially when it’s
favored to do so. In its last 30 tries as chalk against opponents
with revenge, the Mormons have covered just eight, including a
lowly 3-14 ATS mark in that role in the last 17 opportunities. Air
Force is 21-10 ATS in its last 31 chances as a road dog, including
a solid 7-2 ATS mark in that role when playing with revenge.
We'll fly with the Falcons in this bounceback.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Texas El Paso over RICE by 21
We used to love finding the Owls as a home dog on the weekend
card but it isn’t such an amorous event anymore. The Owls, who
were once a perfect 12-0 ATS in that role have lost their last
three while wallowing in the throes of a 12-game losing streak.
UTEP can smell the CUSA West title and won’t let this limping
Owl get in the way. By the way, the Miners have found the gold
17 times in their last 18 road wins. We can dig it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MINNESOTA over Ohio St by 3
Minnesota had a much-needed week off last week while the
Buckeyes were beating Indiana for the 15th straight time. Even
though the win looked relatively easy from the view of the
scoreboard, Indiana put up a fight. Minnesota will put up a bigger
fight, if Brian Cupito is back to work, that is. What was lost in
the highlight frenzy of Wisconsin’s last second blocked kick for
a win at Minnesota, was the fact that the Gophers RAN for nearly
400 yards against the Badgers. OSU better bring its lunch. This
could turn out to be a long day for the Buckeyes. Another Smart
Box assisted play.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RUTGERS over Navy by 4
Rutgers takes a break from Big East play to take on the Middies.
There are two things wrong with that statement. First, playing
Navy is NOT a break from Big East play. Playing Saint Thomas
Aquinas Junior High is a break from the Big East. Second, nobody
takes on Navy. Navy takes on them. The Sailors are 28-8 ATS in
their last 36 cruises as road underdogs and they fear no one.
However, that 54-21 beating the Tars put on RU last year will
keep us away from the shipyard.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FLORIDA over Georgia by 8
This was going to be easy for Georgia. With Chris Leak’s shoulder
problems and Florida essentially out of the race in the SEC East,
the Dawgs would have their way in the world’s largest outdoor
cocktail party. Then, DJ Shockley got hurt. Amid the recent
troubles the Gators have had, the Florida defense has held forth.
Causing turnovers, making stops and generally limiting the
options of the opponent’s offense. The Gators might get this
done against Georgia’s second-line quarterback. Our Awesome
Angle (see page 2) says so, too.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
USC over Washington St by 24
When Southern Cal lines up against a team that has shown no
inclination to play defense all season long, there really is no
reason to fade the Trojans. Unless, of course, that team brings a
Double-Deuce (pass and run for 200 yards) offense to the table.
And this Double Deuce has not lost a game by more than 30
points since 2000, including a span of 56 GAMES!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Texas over OKLAHOMA ST by 36
To our knowledge, Oklahoma State has never been a home
underdog of this size. Maybe back in the days when Bud
Wilkinson was at Oklahoma and Bob Devaney was at Nebraska
but not in the last 25 years. It doesn’t matter. Texas can win this
game by whatever it wants and OSU is powerless to stop it. No,
we won’t be throwing down our dough on road chalk of this
immensity but you won’t find Oklahoma State on our card
anywhere, either.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
N ILLINOIS over Ball St by 31
While everyone was running for the hills after Northern Illinois
lost its two top running backs, those in the know stayed with
the Huskies. That powerful offensive line steamrolled Kent and
will likely do the same to Ball State. The difference here is that
the Cardinals can score a little, a talent that has eluded the
Golden Flashes. Still, the numbers are all NIU's and we ain't fading
'em.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:43pm -
0 likes
BOWLING GREEN over Akron by 17
Another huge MAC favorite against a team that knows how to
find the end zone. Although BG isn’t trying to climb the mountain
Northern Illinois faces, this is still a formidable impost against a
decent opponent. The BeeGees have put up some huge numbers
over the last few years on this field and fading them is really not
a good idea. They are 27-9 SU and 25-11 ATS in their last 36 lined
home games. We just think there’s a better spot.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Ucla over STANFORD by 3
What do Rice and Florida Atlantic have in common? Nothing would
be the first word out of our mouths but closer inspection reveals
a tie that binds. Those two teams are the only teams in the country
with a worse rush defense than Ucla. We’re not saying that
Stanford is a lock in this game, there is no such thing. But we
know from the volumes of work on the running game that double
digit dogs who outrush their opponents are about an 85% play
ON since 1980. That should be worth a bob or two on Stanford.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Tcu over SAN DIEGO ST by 7
After two tough games with traditional rivals Utah and New
Mexico, we doubt San Diego State will have the emotion
necessary to carry it through this game. Tcu has been the
fortunate son of college football this season, a 6-1 team that
could just as easily be 3-4 had the pigskin gods directed their
attention elsewhere. Everyone’s luck runs out sooner or later
and everyone has a flat game now and then. It’s figuring out
when those events will occur that’s hard to do.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ARIZONA ST over Washington by 14
You all saw Washington play with a tremendous amount of
emotion against a dead flat Southern Cal team last week. Like
we said before, it’s extremely difficult to keep that adrenaline
pumping two games in succession. Here, however, we have a
Husky who’s been improving from the first game of the season.
ASU has holes. Washington has the Ham. There's nothing worse
than a hole right in the middle of a homecoming ham sandwich.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
KENTUCKY over Mississippi St by 1
Kentucky has won six of its last 37 SEC games and is a rock solid
1-12 SU in its last 13 lined games, including 0-5 this season.
Mississippi State has lost 19 SEC road games in a row and is 3-11
ATS in its last 14. If any of you have an idea of who to take in this
game, let us know but not until AFTER your session with the
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fresno St over HAWAII by 10
Fresno State is apparently on cruise control until the conference
title game against Boise State down the road. You should have
your foot on the gas pedal when you go to the Island because
the Rainbows love to shock people there. Shock is the right word.
Since 1988, Hawaii is an electrifying 13-3 ATS at home against
foes who are .725 or better. The Rainbows are 5-0 ATS at home
in this series. Bring your best Fresno or that game with Boise
won’t mean nearly as much.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
LA TECH over San Jose St by 21
San Jose State has lost 11 road games in a row and isn’t expected
to win this. Tech has already taken New Mexico State, North Texas
and Hawaii out behind the Ruston woodshed and the Bulldogs
will be reminded of their 1-3 SU record against the Spartans every
day leading up to this game. Still, the Spartans can throw the ball
a little and Tech’s pass defense is in the nation’s bottom 25. We
have better things to do with our Saturday evening.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Michigan over NORTHWESTERN by 3
Both teams are off huge road wins and mini rolls. Who goes
home with the loss today is the question. Northwestern hasn’t
been home off a SU road dog win in five years but, before that,
the Cats were just 3-7 ATS in that role. Michigan is 8-22 ATS in
its last 30 tries as a road favorite, including 3-14 ATS when the
opponent is off a win. We hate playing road chalk, we dislike
playing teams off overtime wins, and we detest playing
underdogs off back-to-back SU underdog wins. Where does that
leave us here? In the Twilight Zone for now.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Texas Tech over BAYLOR by 7
We’re curious to see how Baylor’s stodgy offense keeps up with
the Red Raiders in this one. Good for Baylor is that Texas Tech is
coming off that battle with Texas. Or is it? Tech is 11-5 ATS in
their last 16 games following the Texas bash. Bad for Baylor is its
8-36 ATS mark in home games where the Bears allowed 28 or
more points. The Baptists are an attractive home dog based on
their record, and TTRR is in a famous 'Bubble Burst' situation.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:43pm -
0 likes
TENNESSEE over S Carolina by 12
Tennessee seems to save its best for the best and only on the
road against the best. The Vols are a terrible home favorite with
just seven pointspread wins in their last 27 chances in that role.
Included in those 27 games is a 3-14 ATS log against .500 or better
opposition and a 2-12 ATS mark against opponents who are off
a SU win. Spurrier has targeted this game as South Carolina’s
chance for respectability. We wouldn’t bet against him.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TULANE over Marshall by 6
We know this isn’t a true road game for Marshall but, if you
look at the Herd away from Huntington, you won’t understand
why they are favored. Marshall is 1-8 ATS in its last eight away
from home (the win came in a 27-point SU loss as a 35-point
dog). Tulane is no BCS candidate by any stretch of the imagination
but the Greenies have enough weapons to get by here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
N MEXICO ST over Idaho by 3
We saw the early outlaw line on this game and it couldn’t have
been more perfect. 'Pick' is perfect because neither team should
be favored in this mess. Then what happens, the Aggies are
installed a 4-point chalk. Yikes. Of course, we won’t have a
recommendation on them but, we think the Vandals are the
better team (that’s Idaho for you Sun Belt lovers).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OREGON ST over Arizona by 10
Arizona’s season hit the trash can with that loss to Stanford. It’s
obvious by his personnel moves that Mike Stoops has packed the
wagon for 2005. Oregon State has done anything but and the
Beavers haven’t shown any mercy to Arizona in the past six years.
Six straight wins and covers with the last three at home by 29 or
more points is not exactly sympathetic to the plight of the Wildcats.
Look for more of the same here. There’s no reason not to
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.
BOISE ST over Nevada by 24
Nevada has made a little noise with back-to-back home wins
but teams have a habit of becoming very quiet when they walk
into this stadium. True, Boise isn’t the Bash Bunch of old but the
Broncos still have more talent than Nevada and are itching to
put one of those famed Boise Blowouts on the board. Before
that win at San Jose, the Wolf Pack had lost SUATS nine straight
on the road. And besides, BSU is 10-1 ATS against foes off back
to back victories and 15-2 ATS as conference home favs of less
than 28 points.
Troy barely got by Florida International last Thursday and doesn’t
appear to have any of its offensive deficiencies solved. As you
know, we don’t back Sun Belt road teams and we won’t here.
That leaves us with Lafayette as a favorite, a role in which the
Rajun Cajuns have failed ten of the last eleven times. No thanks.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
Mid Tenn St over FLORIDA INT’L by 7
We don’t think Florida International is good enough to beat
anybody. We base that judgment on the fact that the Golden
Panthers have never won a lined game. But, as we said in the
previous write-up, we don’t do Sun Belt road teams, especially
when they’re favored. Looks like another Sun Belt pass. Damn!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~
LSU over North Texas 44
Since Sun Belt teams are still less than 33% on the road this season,
we can’t back the fallen Eagles in this one. But, neither can we
back the once indomitable LSU defense in this, a major letdown
affair. Tigers have outscored UNT to the tune of 101-7 in the last
two matchups – and that was when the Green was mean. This is a
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:44pm -
0 likes
marc lawrence;
Pros guys
5 BEST BET
Washington over NY GIANTS by 13
Third straight tough defense for the Giants to handle and
we’re not sure they can do it. Washington is allowing less
than 17 points per game over the last year and a half and
our records show that the Giants have failed to cover 12
straight times as a home favorite when scoring 21 or less
points. Before that half-point loss in Kansas City, the
Redskins had covered five in a row as a dog. Somehow the
Viagrans (Big Blue) are 4-2 this season despite having been
outgained in every contest. The Redskins have earned their
4-2 status, going 5-1 ITS (In The Stats). Look for the series
dog to move to 7-1 ATS while the G-Men dip to 0-7 ATS as
favs of 8 or less in this series. Wrong team is favored here.
a SU win.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
4* bb Jacksonville over ST LOUIS by 10
With the quarterbacks on each side either in sick bay or on
their way to it, we can’t make a positive statement for either
side. We will tell you, however, that Jacksonville’s defense
is 22 spots higher in the NFL rankings than that of the Rams.
We certainly don’t make it a habit to recommend favorites
in the NFL with a defense nearly 100 yards inferior to its
underdog opponent and we see no reason to start doing it
here. Jags-plus gets the nod as Rams fall to 0-5 ATS at home
against a rested foe.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~
3 BEST BET
Baltimore over PITTSBURGH by 6
Since 1992, the Steelers are a perfect ten-for-ten in Monday
night games missing the money bag just once over that
stretch. We'll fade that, though, with a Baltimore defense
that is beginning to resemble the Super Bowl team they
once were in 2000. The Black Birds are 11-4 ATS away off a
road game while Pitt chips in at 1-5 ATS at home off a
home game. Too much defense for a role-changing division
chalker to lay. Loss here in Game 15 denied Baltimore a
spot in the playoffs. They make amends tonight.
laying considering New England's current state of condition.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
all bb
3*..kansas.ravens panthers under
4*,,central mich..bengals over..jags
5*,,miami florida,,redskins..49ers under..
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:44pm -
0 likes
Tampa Bay over SAN FRANCISCO by 10
Although we’re certainly not crazy about laying this many on
the road with Tampa Bay and its second-string QB, we cannot
recommend San Francisco in any situation. With the trade of
Tim Rattay to these Bucs, the Forty Niners have handed the reins
to the green Alex Smith and the kid isn’t doing all that well.
Expect the Buccaneer defense to continue his education.
Meanwhile, move on to the much more exciting game below.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DENVER over Philadelphia by 3
We’ve often said that Philadelphia is the best road team in the
NFL and its record supports that claim. But, as good as the Eagles
are on the road, Denver is better at home. The Broncos are 22-7
SU at home off a road game since 2000, including 14-3 SU when
facing a road trip in the next game. Those numbers bode ill for
a Philadelphia team that is looking for identity.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo by 7
No defense in the league has taken as many hits to its roster
than New England’s, and it’s showing. The Pats have given up
477 yards rushing and 97 points in their last three games, hardly
a statistical endorsement for a division favorite. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS
away versus a foe off a loss. New England has won 22 straight
home games with an 18-3-1 ATS mark when the Pats hold the
opposition to 20 or less. Bottom line: Too many points to consider
laying considering New England's current state of condition.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Kansas City over SAN DIEGO by 1
For the fourth straight week, San Diego gets to play a team that
has had more preparation time. Thanks to hurricane Wilma, the
Chiefs will have two extra days to get ready for this division
battle. A pair of tough losses to the Chargers last season will
have Kansas City focused on this match. The Chiefs have always
been a decent division dog and, in this game, they catch a tired
Charger team coming home off a cross-country trip to Philly.
We’ll grab the Tribe and the points in this one.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TENNESSEE over Oakland by 6
With Oakland posting just two wins in its last NINETEEN road
games, there’s no way we can side with the Raiders in this. Not
that we would want to anyway. Tennessee’s defensive problems
are secondary in nature but, without Randy Moss or a competitive
running game, Oakland probably won’t be able to take advantage
of those weaknesses. The Titans are 18-10 ATS in their last 28
home games against non-division foes and have certainly not
forgotten that 40-35 loss at Oakland in last year’s road finale.
Raiduhs slip to 0-7 ATS as a visitor in this series.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DALLAS over Arizona by 8
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HOUSTON over Cleveland by 3
Not since Tampa Bay, way back when, has a team gone the entire
season without a win. Houston might get its first of the year
against the Browns, a team with three wins in its last 16 road
games. One of those wins was a season-ending 22-14 win over
these same Texans, another reason for Houston to suck it up
today. Still, there’s really no way we can justify laying points
with a team that hasn’t won a game this deep in the season.
Pass.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NEW ORLEANS over Miami by 1
San Antonio could be the permanent home of the Saints if the
city of New Orleans doesn’t come back to life. That would be
fine for the good people of Alamoville and even better for the
franchise. Of course, that rhetoric has nothing to do with this
game. What has to do with this game is Miami’s pathetic
performance in its last three games. The smooth-skinned, air
breathing creatures (not fish) are in disarray. Last we looked,
it’s pretty hard to win with those things present.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:44pm -
0 likes
CINCINNATI over Green Bay by 8
Going into last weekend, teams from the NFC North, our
candidate for the worst division in football, were 3-11 SU against
non-division teams on the season and all three of the wins were
home wins. That 0-6 SU road mark will likely be extended here
forcing us to honor Cincinnati’s 32-3-1 ATS mark in its last 36
wins and to beware of Green Bay’s 17 straight ATS losses in SU
losses to AFC teams. We would normally be all over this like white
on rice except for the fact the Packers are an 'Ugly Pig' should
they take more than eight.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DETROIT over Chicago by 1
In their second game of the season, right after beating Green
Bay in the Silverdome, the Lions went to Chicago, laid a point
and a half and took a 38-6 butt whipping that sent the Harrington
bashers off on a frenzy. Since Detroit is 16-5 ATS at home with
division revenge, including 14-3 ATS when the opponent is off a
home game, we can only look at the Lions here. Chicago’s huge
rushing advantage will leave it as only a look. Bears are 6-1 ATS
after allowing 13 or less in each of last two frays.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CAROLINA over Minnesota by 7
Since you already know, if you read the Cincinnati-Green Bay
write-up, that NFC North teams have yet to win a non-division
road game this season, we’ll skip ahead to Carolina’s record in
non-division home wins. The Panthers have covered 20 of 26 in
their brief NFL history. Minnesota is easy fodder away from home,
evidenced by its three losses, all by 20 or more points, so far this
season. Only Carolina’s terrible record as chalk (5-16 ATS in its
last 21 chances) keeps us at bay.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 2:45pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: Alex Smart
Event: Texas Tech vs Baylor on 10/29/2005 at 09:30
Condition: Texas Tech
Promotion: Texas Tech(17th in the nation) comes into this road contest against Big 12 conference rival Baylor in a foul mood after coming off a humiliating 52-17 beat down at the hands of the nation s top ranked team the Texas Longhorns last week. The Red Raiders will now be ready to get some redemption for that disappointing effort and the Bears will be the unfortunate recipient of their wrath. Final notes: Texas Tech is 9-0 L/9 vs the moneyline in this series winning by an average of 29.55 PPG over that span. The Red Raiders have outscored Baylor 160-40 in their L/4 visits to Waco. Baylor has lost 7 straight homecoming games and are more importantly a bankroll depleting 1-6 ATS over that span Play on Red Raiders in a romp
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:10pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: Big Al McMordie
Event: Idaho vs New Mexico State on 10/29/2005 at 17:00
Condition: Idaho
Promotion: In a matchup of dreadful teams, the 0-7 Aggies of New Mexico State host the 1-6 Vandals of Idaho. Two years ago, Idaho upset New Mexico State 35-31 as a 10-point underdog, and the Vandals have covered 3 straight in this series. Overall, the underdog is a perfect 5-0 in this series, and that's the way I'm going to look on Saturday. One thing that I've learned over the years is to not lay points with bad teams, and at 0-7, the Aggies certainly qualify. New Mexico State also falls into a negative 22-40 ATS system, which plays against any winless team, at Game 8 or later, that's playing at home, if they were on the road in their previous game, and they're favored, or getting less than 22 points. And, if we bring our winless team in off a bye week, then we can improve our 22-40 stat to a 'perfect' 0-5 ATS. The Aggies had last week off, so they fall into that 0-5 ATS tightener. Take the points with Idaho. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:11pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: LT Profits
Event: Michigan vs Northwestern on 10/29/2005 at 16:00
Condition: Northwestern
Promotion: The Wildcats climbed into the polls this week, but the linemakers are apparently not impressed installing them as home underdogs here. We feel that is a big mistake as the Wildcats have proven they can score on ANYONE, and we look for them to get the SU victory here. Yes Michigan can be tough on defense, but the Wolverines have yet to face an offense that is as potent and as balanced as this Wildcat unit. Northwestern is averaging 37.1 points per game overall and 39.0 points per game at home, and the Cats average 212.7 yards rushing and 315.3 yards passing per contest. Furthermore, they are averaging an unbelievable 600.3 total yards over their last 3 games! This could simply be a case of Michigan being favored on the road just on reputation alone. Yes the Wolverines are coming off of a nice road win at Iowa, but they are a dismal 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season, and the only other time they were favored on the road, they lost outright at Wisconsin. This looks like a perfect spot for Northwestern to gain double revenge vs. a Michigan team that beat them 42-20 and 41-10 the last two seasons!
_________________
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:11pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: Ben Burns
Event: Indiana vs Michigan State on 10/29/2005 at 09:00
Condition: Michigan State
Promotion: The Spartans are coming off a blowout loss at the hands of the Wildcats. I expect them to bounce back with a convincing victory vs. the Hoosiers. Indiana, which comes off a blowout loss of it's own, has fared well when matched up against weak opposition but has been trounced when stepping up in class to face the elite teams of the Big 10 Conference. After last week, the Spartans may no longer be considered an 'elite' team within the conference but they are still highly capable of delivering a blowout victory vs. a lesser opponent. Michigan State is 3-0 SU and ATS against the Hoosiers the past three seasons. They won each of those three games by double-digits and by an average margin of victory of more than 24 points per game. Looking back further and we find that the Spartans are a solid 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight meetings in this series. Indiana managed to (barely) cover the number in it's most recent road game at Iowa. However, the Hoosiers are still just 2-13 SU and 4-8-3 ATS their last 15 road games overall. Look for the Spartans to continue their series dominance with a big win and cover on Saturday. Play on MICHIGAN STATE
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:12pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: Joe Muniz
Event: Colorado vs Kansas State on 10/29/2005 at 11:00
Condition: Colorado
Promotion: Colorado is 5-2 this season. Their only losses came at Miami, Florida and at Texas. Both of those teams has too much team speed for Colorado. Colorado seems to have no problem handling any other teams. Kansas State has no where near the athletes of Texas and Miami. Colorado is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games against Kansas State. Colorado is also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Colorado has held their opponents to 18 points per game this season. That includes two shutouts and holding Kansas to 13 points last week.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:12pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: Greg Daraban
Event: Oklahoma vs Nebraska on 10/29/2005 at 09:00
Condition: Nebraska
Promotion: 119 Oklahoma (4-3) at 120 Nebraska (5-2) Lincoln, Nebraska TV ABC Once considered one of the best rivalries in college football. The game usually was played the day after Thanksgiving, when these two played in the BIG 8. The conference was somewhat known as BIG 2 (NEB-Okla) and the dwarfs. The schools do not play each other every year since both teams have gone to the BIG 12 and Nebraska is in the North Division, and OU is in the South Division. Both programs have won National Champions (12 combined) Nebraska under Bob Devaney, Tom Osborne. Oklahoma Bud Wilkinson, Barry Switzer and Bob Stoops. These programs not having great years. Saturday Oklahoma had to go to overtime with Baylor at home in a 37-30 win over the Bears. Nebraska played hard in the first half, but was drilled in the second half losing 41-24 to Mizz. Sooners have losses to TCU, UCLA and Texas. Huskers with losses to Texas Tech and Missouri. Nebraska has the much better passing with Zac Taylor who had 281 yards against Missouri Saturday. OU Freshman Rhett Bomar has been very inconsistent he will get better in the next few seasons as he has just 4 TD passes, and 7 picks. The Husker Blackshirts win this one in front of the home crowd. Take Nebraska ***
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:12pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: Gary Sanders
Event: Washington State vs USC on 10/29/2005 at 12:30
Condition: USC
Promotion: USC must be in a foul mood after dropping to 2nd place behind Texas in the BCS. The Trojans will show the BCS committee just how wrong they are as they will punish Wash St. TAKE USC who will win by 50!
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:12pm -
0 likes
Handicapper: Scott Spreitzer
Event: Clemson vs Georgia Tech on 10/29/2005 at 12:30
Condition: Clemson
Promotion: The Clemson Tigers are in their time of year. Over the past 3 seasons, the Tigers have been money makers coming down the home stretch. They covered 2 of their final 3 in 2002, their final 3 games of 2003, and 4 of their last 6 in 2004. That's a 9-3 spread mark. HC Tommy Bowden has his team off and running down the stretch again in 2005, winning their last 2 games handily after losing 3 heartbreakers in a row. This week they travel to Ga Tech. The Yellowjackets have had extra time to prepare due to last week's postponement, but the offense is nothing to speak of when stepping up in competition. QB Reggie Ball is completing just 47% of his passes with 6 INTs and only 6 TDs. His passing yards per attempt is a weak 5.6! GT is nursing bumps and bruises on both sides of the ball, although they should get P.J. Daniels back on the field this week. However, his numbers are nothing special. The RB is averaging just over 80 yards per game. Clemson will load up to slow the ground game and force Ball to throw. That spells turnovers and failed drives for GT. Look for Clemson to continue their late season dominance with a win on the conference road! I'm taking the points with Clemson.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:13pm -
0 likes
Sp Connection 15-2 last 17 games..for cappersmall.com members
20*... College Total Of the week
Mich/Northwestern over
20* Blowout game of the week
...Boise State
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:13pm -
0 likes
Pinnacle Pulse
The inside line from PinnacleSports.com
by Simon Noble
10/26/2005 2:26PM EST
SportsInsights.com has teamed up with Pinnacle Sports to provide members with an insiders look at what's happening in the sports betting marketplace.
Welcome to this week's edition of the Pinnacle Pulse where the line managers at Pinnacle Sports look to give you an unprecedented insight into the point spread movement on key games each week plus offer you the inside line on a little gambling theory to help players of all levels crank up their skill level and hopefully their winnings as well!
Georgia (+4) at Florida
Georgia's starting QB DJ Shockley is expected to miss the game due to a sprained knee and Joe Tereshinski will be making his first collegiate start. He will be leading a Bulldogs offense which relies heavily on the pass - rushing accounts for only 40% of Georgia's offense. Additionally, the Gators have had the benefit of a bye week.
This was a difficult line to set - if Shockley was healthy and Florida had no bye week, we would probably have opened the game around a Pick'em. As it is, we initially opened at +5.5 and were flooded with early sharp bettors taking the dog. We started to see some buyback on Florida at -4.5 and the line has since stabilized at +4.
Arizona (+8.5) at Oregon State
Arizona is 1-5 on the year with its only win against Northern Arizona, a Div I-AA team. The Wildcats problem has been an error-prone offense that gave up five turnovers last week and has lost 21 turnovers in its first six games. With nearly a third of its offensive possessions terminated by turnovers, their defense has allowed 30 points per game against Div-I opponents.
Arizona can make this match-up competitive as four of its six losses have been by 7 points or less. Oregon St. has its own defensive problems, allowing 36 points per game despite having a 4-3 record. If Arizona can protect the ball this might be a close, high-scoring game.
We opened the Beavers as a 7.5 point favorite and saw Oregon State money all the way at a ratio of four bets on the Beavers for every one on the Wildcats as the line pushed out to -9. At the time, a lot of sharps were playing the favorite early and buying the spread down to -7. We have seen some buy back on Arizona and the line has now settled at -8.5.
Philadelphia (+3.5) at Denver Broncos
On paper, Philadelphia looks the better team. The Eagles offense nets 15 yards per game more than the Broncos and the Philadelphia defense allows 9 yards per game less. The Eagles outscore their opponents by an average of 4 points per game, compared to 3 for Denver. If the Eagles are one point better on a neutral field, why are they a 3.5 point underdog?
Home teams have done freakishly well this year. The average home field advantage this season has been over 5 points compared to about 3 points historically. Bettors believe the home field advantage will continue to be larger and are backing their opinions with cash.
We opened this game at Denver -3 -117 and took some minor two-way action before seeing large sharp money on the Broncos. Once we moved to -3.5 we started receiving moderate two-way action with slightly more bets on the Eagles.
Green Bay (+9.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
In the past, sharps have always loved bad teams getting lots of points. In the 90’s, you could make money year after year betting every "big dog" at +7.5 or higher. This year, these dogs aren’t biting and are 4-8 against the spread. They did poorly last year too, so what gives?
First, the lines have become tighter due to all of the sharps playing on the Internet. Your average big underdog gets about a full point less than they did in the 90’s. Second, we have two extraordinarily bad teams in Houston and San Francisco who are a combined 1-5 against the spread when playing as a big dog.
This game opened at -7, where we took almost all Bengals money. The line has now been pushed out to -9.5 where we are seeing two-way action with some sharp players playing Green Bay by buying up to +10 and +10.5.
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 4:13pm -
0 likes
KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 6 Issue 10 October 27-31, 2005 •
LOOK OUT BELOW!!! AFTER 45-26-1
(63.3%) START, MAX CAREENS TO
HORRIBLE 2-9 POINTSPREAD MARK
Horrid Week: After winning every single week thus far and logging a 45-26-1 (63.3%) record on the season, this publication had a 2-9 record last week. We had enjoyed a remarkable start on the season that was truly better than it appeared, as there had been a number of lucky winners in print, especially in the first 3 or 4 issues. Dave Fobare went 1-1 with his plays (Dave had a 1-point win and a 1-point loss), so you know where the blame for last week lies. We’ll try to do better this week.
How does this happen? We lost on the phones, as well, with a 2-6 record. That record included some really bad beats. Remarkably, our late phone plays went 7-1 against the first half lines, so you know that our teams had horrible second halves. The bad performance was a combination of bad picks and bad luck, as bad performances usually are. We usually really start to heat up in the NFL around this time of year but we are 1-4 the past two weeks on the late phones. All five of those teams have had non-offensive TD’s scored against them. Regarding the first half/second half difference, many of you know that in basketball we often suggest a combination of first half/full game betting, but don’t for football. We’ve tracked such results with our football but have never really seen much of a difference. In fact, last year our full games outperformed the first halves. It has been the exact opposite this year, as betting the first half lines on our late phone plays would have us squarely and impressively in the black. Not really a missed opportunity, as it this has not been the case in the past and we would have no reason to divvy up our bets between first half and full games.
Breeder’s Cup: This Saturday is the Breeder’s Cup. We pass along selections to our All Sports VIP guys from sources we have had reason to trust in the past, but they haven’t done much the past couple of years. Treat them with modest respect.
Copyright 2005. All Rights Reserved.
Published by Strategic Sports Publishing
8610 Roswell Road. Suite 900-300. Atlanta, Georgia 30350
Phone (770.649.1078) Fax (770.234.5051) Email (kevino@bellsouth.net)
SELECTIONS: October 27-31, 2005
College Football
Friday, October 28, 2005
Letdown Time
@New Mexico (-6) over Colorado State
Colorado State enjoyed some remarkable good fortune on Saturday to beat Wyoming 39-31. The Rams had an INT return for a TD and a 50-yard Hail Mary to end the first half for TD’s. Leading 33-31 late they put the game away with a tipped ball TD pass on 4th and 7 where the QB just missed getting sacked and tossed a prayer on a rollout while under heavy pursuit. The win overshadows some serious deficiencies for the Rams. The Hail Mary at the end of the half was their first offensive TD in the first half in three games. CSU had been held scoreless into the 4th quarter in their two previous games against Utah and BYU. The Colorado State defense has been in serious disarray. In their last three games they’ve given up 425 yards to Utah, 442 to BYU, and 467 to Wyoming. They allow opponents to gain nearly 5 yards per rush and about 8½ yards per pass attempt. Their offensive numbers overall are pretty good, but the early punchlessness in the last three games has got to be a concern.
New Mexico very solid form right now, as they shot out to a 30-3 halftime lead at San Diego State on Saturday night. They held the Aztecs to only 129 yards in the first three quarters. Lobos held Wyoming to 307 yards the week before that and beat the Cowboys in Laramie, which is no small feat. Senior RB Dontrell Moore has had incredible success against the Rams, rushing for 181, 242 and 154 yards against CSU. CSU has gotten all the breaks in winning 2 of their last 3 games but they’ll have a hard time slowing down homestanding New Mexico in this one. Go with the Lobos. UNM by 13.
Saturday, October 29, 2005
Packing It In?
Southern Miss (+6½) over @NC State
North Carolina State is simply an unmitigated disaster right now. The Wolfpack are 2-4 on the season, with the most recent loss at Wake Forest occurring after the line had gone from pk to NCSU (-3) as a result of Wake Forest’s QB Randolph being injured and out of the game. It didn’t matter, Wolfpack QB Jay Davis tossed an INT returned for a TD was replaced by Marcus Stone in the 2nd quarter and Stone led the Wolfpack to three straight scoring
drives. But Stone threw his own INT returned for a score and it was another mind-boggling loss for North Carolina State. Against 1-A opposition NC State has won 2 of their last 10 games. NC State players and coaches are always positive after losses and promising better days ahead because of their great talent and hard work. After the Wake Forest loss WR and kick returner Tramaine Hall said, "We'll bounce back. We've got playmakers. We have a tight group. We just need to put it all together and play with even more energy.â€Â
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 6:08pm -
0 likes
the steam sheet
STAT STEAMER
Computer whiz, Dan Tesinferno's #1 Play
3* BUFFALO over Ohio by 10
You can laugh if you want to. No one will blame you. While
your chuckling consider that Ohio is 3-23 SU in its last 26
road games. Within those 26 games, when the Bobbies were
not an underdog of at least 20 points, they went 4-15 to the
money. Note also that Ohio has been here before. In 2001,
the Bobcats came to Buffalo as a 17-point favorite. They lost
the game 44-0! In 2003, the Kittens went back to Buffalo,
this time as a 13-point favorite. They lost the game again, 26-
17. Ohio is 0-4 SUATS on the road this year, with every loss
by at least 24 points, and is on a seven-game road ATS losing
streak. Buffalo is getting better and I'm not the only one who
sees that improvement (see Quotes&Notes below). It shows
up in the numbers. Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home
games, all against opponents superior to Ohio. We'll be...
RUNNING WITH THE BULLS 20-10!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A Salvo from Nicky "Boom Boom" Cannon
3* MIAMI FL over N Carolina by 31
The Hurricanes are not an easy team to beat two times in a
row. Since 1980, Miami is 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS as a favorite
when playing with revenge, including a perfect 6-0 to the
number when favored by more than seven points. How can you
be any more vengeful than Miami is here. The Canes, cruising
along at 6-0 and heading for the BCS title game, laid 21' in
Chapel Hill last season and got run over by the Tarheels. They
allowed 279 yards rushing and were beaten 31-28. That loss
shook Miami up so bad the Canes lost to Clemson at home the
following week and gave up all BCS consideration. Yes, this
game has been circled on the Miami calendar since last
October. We won't be foolish enough to think Carolina won't
be interested here but, the Heels are coming off a triple revenge
win against Virginia with bowl revenge up next.
CANNON SHOT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE SMOKER
Tom Scott's Number One Play
4* TCU over San Diego St by 17
There's always a danger of getting to the party too late with a
team like TCU. The Frogs have cruised through the Mountain
West posting wins at the tough venues of Wyoming, BYU and
Air Force and home wins over New Mexico and Utah. Only
one contender for the league title remains and this ain't him.
The Aztecs were smothered by New Mexico last week on this
field, a result that has become old hat to SDSU. In their last
22 games against .750 or better teams, the Aztecs are 0-22
SU at any site and a perfect 0-9 ATS on their home field. TCU
is 29-4 ATS in its last 33 conference road wins and is a
sparkling 20-1 to the number in those games when the
opponent was better than .250 on the season. We'll leap at
the chance to use those numbers.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Our Upset Special
3* BOSTON COLLEGE over Virg Tech by 1 THUR
As you can tell by the picks that pop up here, we love quality
dogs and Boston College is certainly that. In its last five games
as an underdog coming off a pointspread loss, the Eagles
have not only covered the spread, they've won the game. BC
is also 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games taking +4 or more. Two
years ago, the Eagles came into Blacksburg as a 15-point
pup and waltzed out with a 34-27 win. We honestly don't
expect the Eagles to win here but we do think that two touchdowns
is too much to give a team who is almost as talented
and just as physical. It's not often that you find a team taking
more points than it allows on the average for the season.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
the blowout special
3* AUBURN over Mississippi by 28
Auburn has been decisive on this field, particularly in SEC
play, with five straight conference wins and covers here. Ole
Miss has problems offensively. The Rebels don't get to the red
zone often and, because they're not real good at holding onto
the ball, get to the end zone even less frequently. Averaging
just 15 points per game on the season won't get it done in this
league and certainly won't get it done here. Neither will the 57-
yard rushing average that Ole Miss has posted against the
decent defenses it has challenged this year. The War Eagle has
already whacked this type here this season. We see a similar result today.
AUBBIE 37-9!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
!Dan Tesinferno's
STEAMROLLER SPECIAL
UTEP 31-3!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TOP GAME CLUB'S
GAME OF THE WEEK
COLORADO 44-13!
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 7:53pm -
0 likes
SUNSHINE CFB FORECAST:
Thursday, October 27, 2005
Boston College(+14) at Virginia Tech
Power Rating Projection:
Virginia Tech 32 Boston College 12
Statistical Projections
Boston College 15
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 171
Turnovers: 2 Virginia Tech 25
Rushing Yards: 147
Passing Yards: 160
Turnovers: 0
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Virginia Tech 32 Boston College 12
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, October 28, 2005
Colorado State(+4½) at New Mexico
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico 30 Colorado State 26
Statistical Projections
Colorado State 27
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 278
Turnovers: 2 New Mexico 34
Rushing Yards: 264
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico 31 Colorado State 28
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saturday, October 29, 2005
Purdue(+15) at Penn State
Power Rating Projection:
Penn State 35 Purdue 16
Statistical Projections
Purdue 22
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 242
Turnovers: 3 Penn State 31
Rushing Yards: 150
Passing Yards: 229
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Penn State 40 Purdue 9
Penn State (1 star)
Indiana(+18) at Michigan State
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan State 38 Indiana 21
Statistical Projections
Indiana 30
Rushing Yards: 152
Passing Yards: 253
Turnovers: 2 Michigan State 43
Rushing Yards: 248
Passing Yards: 328
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan State 42 Indiana 26
Wisconsin(-19) at Illinois
Power Rating Projection:
Wisconsin 42 Illinois 20
Statistical Projections
Wisconsin 43
Rushing Yards: 236
Passing Yards: 226
Turnovers: 1 Illinois 20
Rushing Yards: 163
Passing Yards: 187
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wisconsin 48 Illinois 27
Cincinnati(+5½) at Syracuse
Power Rating Projection:
Syracuse 28 Cincinnati 22
Statistical Projections
Cincinnati 23
Rushing Yards: 142
Passing Yards: 198
Turnovers: 3 Syracuse 26
Rushing Yards: 177
Passing Yards: 166
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Syracuse 26 Cincinnati 20
Clemson(+3) at Georgia Tech
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia Tech 24 Clemson 19
Statistical Projections
Clemson 24
Rushing Yards: 112
Passing Yards: 238
Turnovers: 2 Georgia Tech 23
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 222
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia Tech 18 Clemson 13
Historical trend: Take Clemson ( Domination by underdog, 7-1, 87.5% )
Maryland(+17½) at Florida State
Power Rating Projection:
Florida State 30 Maryland 16
Statistical Projections
Maryland 17
Rushing Yards: 104
Passing Yards: 191
Turnovers: 2 Florida State 34
Rushing Yards: 115
Passing Yards: 349
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Florida State 26 Maryland 12
Historical trend: Take Florida State ( Domination at home by Florida State, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Florida State ( Domination by favorite at Florida State, 4-0, 100.0% )
Oklahoma(+1) at Nebraska
Power Rating Projection:
Nebraska 23 Oklahoma 22
Statistical Projections
Oklahoma 21
Rushing Yards: 119
Passing Yards: 197
Turnovers: 2 Nebraska 19
Rushing Yards: 67
Passing Yards: 196
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Nebraska 18 Oklahoma 17
Wake Forest(-14½) at Duke
Power Rating Projection:
Wake Forest 34 Duke 22
Statistical Projections
Wake Forest 36
Rushing Yards: 261
Passing Yards: 176
Turnovers: 1 Duke 17
Rushing Yards: 147
Passing Yards: 108
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Wake Forest 35 Duke 24
Southern Miss(+5) at No Carolina State
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Miss 26 No Carolina State 22
Statistical Projections
Southern Miss 25
Rushing Yards: 69
Passing Yards: 217
Turnovers: 1 No Carolina State 26
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 274
Turnovers: 4
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Miss 23 No Carolina State 19
Mississippi(+20) at Auburn
Power Rating Projection:
Auburn 36 Mississippi 8
Statistical Projections
Mississippi 13
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 165
Turnovers: 2 Auburn 28
Rushing Yards: 188
Passing Yards: 222
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Auburn 31 Mississippi 3
Historical trend: Take Mississippi ( Domination by visiting team, 7-1, 87.5% )
Utah State(+34½) at Alabama
Power Rating Projection:
Alabama 38 Utah State 5
Statistical Projections
Utah State 11
Rushing Yards: 65
Passing Yards: 139
Turnovers: 2 Alabama 31
Rushing Yards: 143
Passing Yards: 259
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Utah State
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Alabama 33 Utah State 0
Colorado(-7½) at Kansas State
Power Rating Projection:
Colorado 25 Kansas State 22
Statistical Projections
Colorado 19
Rushing Yards: 96
Passing Yards: 167
Turnovers: 2 Kansas State 19
Rushing Yards: 111
Passing Yards: 199
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Colorado 21 Kansas State 17
Iowa State(+9½) at Texas A+M
Power Rating Projection:
Texas A+M 32 Iowa State 19
Statistical Projections
Iowa State 25
Rushing Yards: 106
Passing Yards: 248
Turnovers: 3 Texas A+M 29
Rushing Yards: 206
Passing Yards: 224
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas A+M 32 Iowa State 19
Miami-Ohio(-24) at Temple
Power Rating Projection:
Miami-Ohio 36 Temple 12
Statistical Projections
Miami-Ohio 51
Rushing Yards: 166
Passing Yards: 411
Turnovers: 2 Temple 15
Rushing Yards: 113
Passing Yards: 196
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to Miami-Ohio
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami-Ohio 34 Temple 10
Toledo(-10) at Central Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Toledo 29 Central Michigan 21
Statistical Projections
Toledo 29
Rushing Yards: 183
Passing Yards: 231
Turnovers: 1 Central Michigan 21
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 185
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Toledo 29 Central Michigan 21
Ohio(-3½) at Buffalo
Power Rating Projection:
Buffalo 21 Ohio 16
Statistical Projections
Ohio 21
Rushing Yards: 190
Passing Yards: 119
Turnovers: 1 Buffalo 15
Rushing Yards: 102
Passing Yards: 178
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo 16 Ohio 10
Kent State(+5½) at Western Michigan
Power Rating Projection:
Western Michigan 38 Kent State 34
Statistical Projections
Kent State 25
Rushing Yards: 84
Passing Yards: 320
Turnovers: 3 Western Michigan 29
Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 309
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Western Michigan 44 Kent State 40
U-C-F(+2½) at East Carolina
Power Rating Projection:
East Carolina 26 U-C-F 23
Statistical Projections
U-C-F 25
Rushing Yards: 149
Passing Yards: 222
Turnovers: 2 East Carolina 19
Rushing Yards: 80
Passing Yards: 210
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
East Carolina 26 U-C-F 24
Air Force(+5½) at Brigham Young
Power Rating Projection:
Brigham Young 27 Air Force 25
Statistical Projections
Air Force 30
Rushing Yards: 245
Passing Yards: 167
Turnovers: 1 Brigham Young 34
Rushing Yards: 93
Passing Yards: 435
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Brigham Young 27 Air Force 25
UTEP(-19) at Rice
Power Rating Projection:
UTEP 39 Rice 15
Statistical Projections
UTEP 54
Rushing Yards: 164
Passing Yards: 384
Turnovers: 1 Rice 15
Rushing Yards: 178
Passing Yards: 90
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to UTEP
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UTEP 41 Rice 16
Ohio State(-5½) at Minnesota
Power Rating Projection:
Minnesota 29 Ohio State 28
Statistical Projections
Ohio State 28
Rushing Yards: 178
Passing Yards: 193
Turnovers: 2 Minnesota 25
Rushing Yards: 184
Passing Yards: 165
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Minnesota 32 Ohio State 31
Navy(+5½) at Rutgers
Power Rating Projection:
Rutgers 24 Navy 20
Statistical Projections
Navy 25
Rushing Yards: 253
Passing Yards: 123
Turnovers: 2 Rutgers 30
Rushing Yards: 148
Passing Yards: 290
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Rutgers 20 Navy 14
Georgia(+5½) vs. Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Georgia 24 Florida 21
Statistical Projections
Georgia 27
Rushing Yards: 134
Passing Yards: 250
Turnovers: 2 Florida 25
Rushing Yards: 166
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Georgia 20 Florida 17
Washington State(+30) at Southern Cal
Power Rating Projection:
Southern Cal 49 Washington State 24
Statistical Projections
Washington State 28
Rushing Yards: 144
Passing Yards: 273
Turnovers: 3 Southern Cal 45
Rushing Yards: 210
Passing Yards: 331
Turnovers: 1
** Statistical edge to Washington State
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Southern Cal 54 Washington State 29
North Carolina(+20) at Miami-Florida
Power Rating Projection:
Miami-Florida 38 North Carolina 15
Statistical Projections
North Carolina 13
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 131
Turnovers: 2 Miami-Florida 28
Rushing Yards: 123
Passing Yards: 247
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Miami-Florida 44 North Carolina 9
Miami-Florida (1 star)
Texas(-35½) at Oklahoma State
Power Rating Projection:
Texas 39 Oklahoma State 10
Statistical Projections
Texas 46
Rushing Yards: 329
Passing Yards: 242
Turnovers: 2 Oklahoma State 15
Rushing Yards: 103
Passing Yards: 150
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas 44 Oklahoma State 0
Texas (1 star)
Ball State(+26) at Northern Illinois
Power Rating Projection:
Northern Illinois 49 Ball State 15
Statistical Projections
Ball State 17
Rushing Yards: 130
Passing Yards: 145
Turnovers: 1 Northern Illinois 46
Rushing Yards: 284
Passing Yards: 257
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Northern Illinois 55 Ball State 21
Akron(+16½) at Bowling Green
Power Rating Projection:
Bowling Green 38 Akron 19
Statistical Projections
Akron 23
Rushing Yards: 94
Passing Yards: 292
Turnovers: 3 Bowling Green 31
Rushing Yards: 128
Passing Yards: 297
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Bowling Green 41 Akron 21
Angle: After Losing as 20-Point Chalk
Go against Bowling Green ( Favored by 1 to 19½ points (or PK), 3-11, 21.4% )
U.C.L.A.(-8) at Stanford
Power Rating Projection:
U.C.L.A. 38 Stanford 28
Statistical Projections
U.C.L.A. 38
Rushing Yards: 169
Passing Yards: 290
Turnovers: 1 Stanford 26
Rushing Yards: 126
Passing Yards: 205
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
U.C.L.A. 45 Stanford 35
Historical trend: Take Stanford ( Domination by Stanford, 6-2, 75.0% )
Historical trend: Take Stanford ( Domination by underdog, 6-2, 75.0% )
Texas Christian(-6½) at San Diego State
Power Rating Projection:
Texas Christian 31 San Diego State 23
Statistical Projections
Texas Christian 31
Rushing Yards: 186
Passing Yards: 216
Turnovers: 2 San Diego State 17
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 188
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Christian 31 San Diego State 24
Washington(+16) at Arizona State
Power Rating Projection:
Arizona State 41 Washington 19
Statistical Projections
Washington 23
Rushing Yards: 116
Passing Yards: 229
Turnovers: 3 Arizona State 42
Rushing Yards: 142
Passing Yards: 423
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Arizona State 46 Washington 24
Historical trend: Take Washington ( Domination by visiting team, 5-1, 83.3% )
Missouri(-6) at Kansas
Power Rating Projection:
Missouri 24 Kansas 23
Statistical Projections
Missouri 32
Rushing Yards: 183
Passing Yards: 249
Turnovers: 2 Kansas 18
Rushing Yards: 82
Passing Yards: 194
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Missouri 20 Kansas 19
Mississippi State(-1) at Kentucky
Power Rating Projection:
Kentucky 27 Mississippi State 26
Statistical Projections
Mississippi State 21
Rushing Yards: 149
Passing Yards: 175
Turnovers: 1 Kentucky 20
Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 180
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Kentucky 28 Mississippi State 27
Fresno State(-12½) at Hawaii
Power Rating Projection:
Fresno State 44 Hawaii 31
Statistical Projections
Fresno State 42
Rushing Yards: 216
Passing Yards: 214
Turnovers: 1 Hawaii 21
Rushing Yards: 62
Passing Yards: 304
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Fresno State 48 Hawaii 35
Historical trend: Take Hawaii ( Domination at home by Hawaii, 4-0, 100.0% )
San Jose State(+18½) at Louisiana Tech
Power Rating Projection:
Louisiana Tech 40 San Jose State 15
Statistical Projections
San Jose State 19
Rushing Yards: 85
Passing Yards: 211
Turnovers: 3 Louisiana Tech 33
Rushing Yards: 148
Passing Yards: 255
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisiana Tech 42 San Jose State 17
Michigan(-3½) at Northwestern
Power Rating Projection:
Michigan 30 Northwestern 28
Statistical Projections
Michigan 35
Rushing Yards: 206
Passing Yards: 273
Turnovers: 2 Northwestern 33
Rushing Yards: 220
Passing Yards: 265
Turnovers: 1
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Michigan 34 Northwestern 31
Texas Tech(-10) at Baylor
Power Rating Projection:
Texas Tech 35 Baylor 20
Statistical Projections
Texas Tech 32
Rushing Yards: 93
Passing Yards: 364
Turnovers: 2 Baylor 20
Rushing Yards: 121
Passing Yards: 181
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Texas Tech 37 Baylor 23
Historical trend: Take Texas Tech ( Domination by favorite at Baylor, 4-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Texas Tech ( Domination on the road by Texas Tech, 4-0, 100.0% )
South Carolina(+14) at Tennessee
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee 25 South Carolina 15
Statistical Projections
South Carolina 20
Rushing Yards: 69
Passing Yards: 228
Turnovers: 2 Tennessee 31
Rushing Yards: 182
Passing Yards: 200
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tennessee 19 South Carolina 10
Historical trend: Take South Carolina ( Domination by visiting team, 7-0-1, 100.0% )
Marshall(-1) at Tulane
Power Rating Projection:
Tulane 28 Marshall 25
Statistical Projections
Marshall 23
Rushing Yards: 125
Passing Yards: 211
Turnovers: 1 Tulane 26
Rushing Yards: 98
Passing Yards: 296
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulane 28 Marshall 24
Idaho(+4) at New Mexico State
Power Rating Projection:
New Mexico State 37 Idaho 24
Statistical Projections
Idaho 21
Rushing Yards: 109
Passing Yards: 218
Turnovers: 2 New Mexico State 29
Rushing Yards: 124
Passing Yards: 288
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New Mexico State 42 Idaho 30
Historical trend: Take Idaho ( Domination by underdog, 5-0, 100.0% )
Arizona(+7½) at Oregon State
Power Rating Projection:
Oregon State 34 Arizona 23
Statistical Projections
Arizona 22
Rushing Yards: 92
Passing Yards: 252
Turnovers: 3 Oregon State 33
Rushing Yards: 118
Passing Yards: 334
Turnovers: 3
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oregon State 38 Arizona 26
Historical trend: Take Oregon State ( Domination by favorite, 8-0, 100.0% )
Historical trend: Take Oregon State ( Domination by favorite at Oregon State, 5-0, 100.0% )
Nevada-Reno(+20) at Boise State
Power Rating Projection:
Boise State 42 Nevada-Reno 18
Statistical Projections
Nevada-Reno 25
Rushing Yards: 144
Passing Yards: 240
Turnovers: 2 Boise State 38
Rushing Yards: 232
Passing Yards: 209
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Boise State 47 Nevada-Reno 23
Historical trend: Take Boise State ( Domination by Boise State, 5-0, 100.0% )
Troy(+3½) at UL-Lafayette
Power Rating Projection:
UL-Lafayette 22 Troy 18
Statistical Projections
Troy 19
Rushing Yards: 140
Passing Yards: 168
Turnovers: 2 UL-Lafayette 16
Rushing Yards: 159
Passing Yards: 120
Turnovers: 2
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
UL-Lafayette 16 Troy 13
Middle Tennessee(-8) at Florida Intl
Power Rating Projection:
Middle Tennessee 29 Florida Intl 18
Statistical Projections
Middle Tennessee 22
Rushing Yards: 114
Passing Yards: 197
Turnovers: 1 Florida Intl 12
Rushing Yards: 70
Passing Yards: 249
Turnovers: 5
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Middle Tennessee 24 Florida Intl 14
North Texas(+44) at Louisiana State
Power Rating Projection:
Louisiana State 39 North Texas 6
Statistical Projections
North Texas 11
Rushing Yards: 108
Passing Yards: 83
Turnovers: 1 Louisiana State 33
Rushing Yards: 208
Passing Yards: 229
Turnovers: 3
** Statistical edge to North Texas
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Louisiana State 34 North Texas 3
posted by phantom
Oct. 27 2005 7:54pm