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GREG ROBERTS
Greg Roberts
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THE ROAST OF THE WEEK
OKLAHOMA OVER BAYLOR BY 28
Last week Baylor had all their eggs stacked in one basket as they looked to get that signature win against the Cornhuskers. But as the Bears so often learn, eggs are prone to shatter and shatter they did last week in Waco. Now a Bear running on fumes in its emotional tank will try to regroup and win at Norman. Fat chance of that happening as under Stoops leadership the Sooners have blasted the Bears to the tune of 43 to 8 on average and have been favored by more than 35 each time. Granted OU is a little down this year but not by this margin. Look for the Bears to go back into hibernation Sooner rather than later.
OKLAHOMA - 31 BAYLOR - 3
TOTALS GAME
TENNESSEE - ARIZONA OVER 45
Since the beginning of this month the Cardinals have lost 3 players from their secondary and I look for Steve McNair to take full advantage. On the other side is the Cardinal offense that ranks 2nd in the league who will have it's way against a porous Titan secondary. With the Titans having played 5 straight overs vs. an opponent off a bye and with Arizona 4-1 to the over after scoring more than 20 in back to back games (including 4-1 to the over in all games this year), we'll look for fireworks in the desert.
ARIZONA - 31 TENNESSEE - 27
TRENDS and ANGLES
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2005
ATS Against the spread RD Road Dog
BB Back-to-back RF Road Favorite
DD Double digit S Since
HD Home Dog SU Straight-up
HF Home Favorite YPR Yards per Rush
LY Last Year > More Than
PPG Points per Game < Less Than
SYRACUSE - ORANGE ONLY 3-18 ATS LAST 21 ON ROAD
VIRGINIA - PLUME HEADS 4-14 ATS LAST 18 ON ROAD
PURDUE - RIVETERS ONLY 3 COVERS ON BIG 10 ROAD SINCE '97
USC - RUBBERS 4-1 ATS AS FAVORITE >30 UNDER PETE
SAN DIEGO - BOLTS 10-0-2 ATS LAST 12 ON ROAD
BALTIMORE - RAMS 6-1 ATS VS. NFC
THE BARKING DOG
OREGON ST. OVER UCLA BY 3
Wandering into the kennel this week we find a buck toothed flat tail that has been averaging 35 points per game in it's last 8 contest. They are also led by a former UCLA QB in Matt Moore who has produced 4 straight PAC 10 road wins the last of which was against highly ranked Cal. The Bruins meanwhile still sport an undefeated record yet it's all smoke and mirrors as UCLA continues to come from behind while actually being outgained in 4 of 6 contests this year. With Oregon St. suddenly finding a run game and the Bruins having allowed 330 yards on the ground to each of its last 2 opponents, it's like Marc Antony said to Cleopatra "I love this Beaver!"
OREGON ST. - 31 UCLA - 28
posted by phantom
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The Big 12 Report: Week 8 by: Tony George
Another week has passed and Texas has continued to impress as the #2 team in the nation and a legit contender for the BCS Bowl game to play USC, but dates with Texas Tech and Texas A&M loom large on the schedule. The Longhorns get Tech at home this week in what should be a high scoring game, and laying 16 points in that one. If there is less than 80 points scored I would be surprised, and this is the first spread offense Texas has really faced and Tech comes in here unbeaten with little respect as far as the oddsmakers are concerned. It should be a wild one in Austin on Saturday.
Elsewhere Oklahoma continues to struggle, but covered the number against Kansas, one of our Winning Picks last week in the Big 12, as we stand at 6-3 ATS on season with Big 12 Plays. Here are my takes on some key games this week in this conference. Iowa State continues their downward spiral with 3 straight losses and it looks like the Nebraska and Missouri game will be crucial this Saturday for the North race, along with Colorado who has Kansas at home this week. It is getting interesting in the North, the south division is all but decided after Saturday.
Baylor @ Oklahoma (-14)
Other than beating up on Kansas St in Norman, the Sooners have been less than stellar at home this season, and less than stellar overall, as it is a down year for OU as they struggle on offense with a freshman QB in Rhett Bomar. Baylor gave Nebraska all they wanted, but Nebraska has a great defense this season and already had seen the spread attack a week earlier from Texas Tech, so they adjusted nicely, something I do not think the young and inexperienced secondary of Oklahoma can do here completely, however I do not see Baylor getting a win here, but I do see them keeping it closer than 2 TD's with their offense. The offense's are even in point production here, and Baylor's defense is only allowing 16 ppg. OU gets the win by 12.
Nebraska @ Missouri (-2.5) My Featured Game of the Week
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (-14.5)
Last year the Cowboys put an old fashion butt kicking on ISU in Stillwater 36-7, but I see a reverse fate for the Cowboys this season in Ames, as Iowa State is coming off 3 straight losses, 2 of them in OT to Nebraska and Missouri last week, and getting beat by Baylor 2 weeks ago. The number is large in this game, but I think the Cyclones could cover it, given that OSU has no defense as evidenced by their last 3 games where they gave up a whopping 545 yards of offense per game and 62 points last week to an angry Texas A&M team. I do not feel comfortable laying 14+ points with any team that has 3 straight losses and feel the number here is too close to call, but a cover by OSU would not surprise me either, as Iowa State has been deflated after many touted them, including myself, to win the Big 12 North this season. A gun to my head, I would lean towards the dog in this one, they scored 31 against Missouri two weeks ago in a home loss, that is more than ISU mustered up against them last week.
Texas A&M (-5) @ Kansas State
Back in the saddle after a blowout of Okie State last week 62-23, the Aggies offense got rolling again. Conversely the Wildcats got hammered at Texas Tech allowing 59 points. This is an interesting game, as Kansas State is hard to beat at home, and the line has jumped from A&M opening at 2.5 all the way up to 5 points as of Wednesday, as the sharps are all over the Aggies here. I am not sold on Kansas State as they have lost to every good team they played in conference this season and struggled with the likes of Marshall and Kansas. The only team that KSU beat up on was lowly North Texas, and I think the QB McNeal will make the difference, but this is a bad number to lay on the road, but I cannot make case for Kansas State right now, and A&M has a quick strike offense, so we look that way in this one.
Texas Tech @ Texas (-16.5)
A 3.5 point jump on the Longhorns since the opening line here, and both these teams are 6-0 and ranked in the Top Ten. Both these offenses have been off the map and QB Hodges for the Red Raiders has tossed up 22 TD passes against 5 ints. this season, and both defense's allow less than 16 points per game. The KEY in this game is the running game of Texas which puts up 264 yards rushing per game, and Tech is respectable at stopping the run at 117 yards per game allowed. I think Texas will find success on the ground here, and their best defense against this high octane spread offense is their own offense, being able to grind it out on the ground and eat up the clock. Last year Texas beat up the Red Raiders 51-21, and while I do not think the spread will be that large, I expect a high scoring game here and the total of 71 here is not out of reach.
Those are my takes for this weekend's action and games of interest, the picture in the North should be decided in the next few weeks, and after the showdown in Austin this weekend, Texas only has a so/so A&M to deal with at seasons end, but that game is in College Station.
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2005 3:40pm -
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The Sports Network
3) Virginia Tech (6-0) at Maryland (4-2)
Thursday , October 20th - 7:45 p.m. (et)
By Scott Haynes, College Football Senior Editor
GAME NOTES: With their sights set on upsetting their second top-25 foe this season, the Maryland Terrapins invite the third-ranked Virginia Tech Hokies to College Park this Thursday night, for an ACC showdown from Byrd Stadium. Ralph Friedgen's Terps have strung together three straight victories to move to 4-2 on the season and are coming off a bye, after disposing of the Temple Owls two weeks ago in Philadelphia, 38-7. Prior to that, Maryland defeated then 19th- ranked Virginia (45-33). The defending ACC champion Hokies are heading toward another conference crown with their strong start this season. They currently sit atop the Coastal Division standings with a 3-0 league ledger. They were also idle a week ago, after routing Marshall on October 8th, 41-14, to remain unbeaten on the year. Maryland holds a 15-12 edge in the all-time series with Virginia Tech, but Tech has won each of the last two matchups to close the gap. Last season, the Hokies routed the Terrapins in Blacksburg, 55-6.
There isn't much Virginia Tech hasn't been able to do on the offensive side of the ball this year. The team is averaging a healthy 39.3 points per game thus far, with the most success coming on the ground. The team is netting almost four yards per carry and 177.7 yards per game rushing. Tailbacks Cedric Humes and Mike Imoh have fueled the ground game, combining for seven of the team's 13 rushing scores to date. Despite the passing attack averaging a modest 187.2 yards per game, quarterback Marcus Vick is a dangerous duel threat in the backfield. When given an opportunity to throw the ball, Vick has been extremely efficient, completing 68.2 percent of his passes, for 1,043 yards, with 10 TDs and just two interceptions. Wideouts David Clowney (16 receptions, for 299 yards and three TDs) and Eddie Royal (13 catches, for 164 yards and one TD) provide adequate options downfield, but tight end Jeff King (15 catches, for 188 yards and four TDs) has been even more important to the Tech passing game.
While the Tech offense has had its way for the most part this season, it is due in large part to one of the nation's premier defenses. The Hokies currently lead the nation in scoring defense at 9.0 ppg, while allowing just 235.5 total yards per game (second nationally). The pass defense has been particularly stout at a meager 133.0 yards per outing (third nationally). This unit is chock-full of All-American caliber talent. Up front, rush end Darryl Tapp (four TFLs, three sacks) gets most of the attention from offensive lines, allowing sophomore end Chris Ellis (team-high 6.0 TFLs, team-high 3.5 sacks) to flourish. A talented trio of linebackers waits behind the line, with Vince Hall (team-high 49 tackles), James Anderson (44 tackles, two sacks) and Xavier Adibi (29 tackles, two INTs) all getting it done. Safety Aaron Rouse (23 tackles, two INTs) and All-American CB Jimmy Williams (20 tackles, one sack) highlight the play in the secondary.
The Terrapins have done a nice job offensively this season, as Friedgen has once again assembled a potent unit. The team is averaging almost 30 points per game (28.5) and getting it done with balance, churning out 158 yards on the ground and 256.2 yards per game through the air. The ground attack lacks a real workhorse, but their is plenty of talent in the backfield with tailbacks Lance Ball, Mario Merrills and Keon Lattimore, who have combined for over 750 yards and 10 TDs this season. Quarterback Sam Hollenbach has been efficient, completing 65.3 percent of his passes in 2005, for 1,513 yards and seven TDs. Vernon Davis and Danny Melendez lead all receivers with 24 catches each, combining for 751 yards and four TDs. Davis has three of those scores and is averaging an eye-popping 20.4 yards per catch.
The Maryland defense has been superb against the pass this season (146.7 ypg), but it has not done the same against the run, allowing a generous 169.7 yards per game. This is definitely an area of concern heading into this contest, as the Hokies like to run the ball. Forcing turnovers has also been a struggle for this unit, with a mere eight takeaways in the first six games, including just two INTs, both by safety Christian Varner. All-American candidate D'Qwell Jackson is far and away the top defender for the Terps from his middle linebacker position, leading the way with 72 total tackles (29 more than the next closest player). Defensive end Trey Covington and tackle Conrad Bolston have paced the team with three sacks apiece and have combined for seven TFLs.
The Terps are flying under the radar thus far but remain a dangerous team, especially on their own field. However, Frank Beamer's troops are well-coached and certainly will not be overlooking the Terps, even with a big showdown with Miami looming large in a couple of weeks.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Virginia Tech 27, Maryland 13
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2005 3:41pm -
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The Sports Network
Florida International (1-4) at Troy (2-4)
DATE & TIME: Thursday, October 20th, 7:30 p.m. (et)
FACTS & STATS: Site: Movie Gallery Veteran Stadium (30,000) -- Troy, Alabama. Television: ESPNU. Home Record: FIU 1-1, Troy 1-1. Away Record: FIU 0-3, Troy 1-3. Neutral Record: FIU 0-0, Troy 0-0. Conference Record: FIU 0-1, Troy 1-1. Series Record: Troy leads, 1-0.
GAME NOTES: In a Sun Belt Conference showdown the Florida International Golden Panthers will battle the Troy Trojans this Thursday at Movie Galley Stadium. The Golden Panthers had an incredible chance to upend four-time defending conference champ North Texas this past week, but an overabundance of miscues (eight turnovers) led to the heartbreaking 13-10 setback. FIU started its season with three straight losses to Kansas State (35-21), Texas Tech (56-3), and Arkansas State (66-24) before collecting its only victory thus far, a 23-6 win over Florida A&M. After the Golden Panthers clash with the Trojans they will head home to face the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. As for the Trojans they opened their season with a 27-10 victory over Cal-Poly, but proceeded to drop their next three contests by a combined score of 124-48. Troy snapped its three-game losing skid with a tremendous 13-10 victory over Sun Belt powerhouse North Texas, but the squad was unable to produce a winning outcome this past week, losing to conference foe UL-Monroe, 27-3. Next on the schedule for the Trojans will be a road contest against UL-Lafayette. This will be the second meeting between the two schools with the Trojans winning the only meeting back in 2003 by a 21-10 margin.
The FIU offense was only able to collect 322 total yards in their setback to North Texas this past week, including just 79 yards on the ground. The Panthers' struggling ground game should not be surprising considering the team is only averaging 127.6 ypg and 3.6 ypc for the year. Leading the rushing attack was Julian Reams who racked up just 78 yards on 15 carries (5.2 ypc). The Panthers also had trouble holding the ball, as the squad committed eight turnovers in the loss (six fumbles, two interceptions). As for the passing attack, quarterback Josh Padrick completed 20-of-32 pass attempts for 243 yards and one score, but also tossed two interceptions for FIU. On the season, Padrick has completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 1,065 yards, but has thrown seven interceptions against just five touchdowns. Throughout the season Chandler Williams and Samuel Smith have been the top two receivers for Padrick and have combined for 48 receptions, 598 yards and two touchdowns. Against North Texas, Smith finished with eight catches for 98 yards and one score, while Williams grabbed four passes for 64 yards.
The FIU defense put forth a tremendous performance last week against UNT, holding the Mean Green to just 13 points on 226 total yards. The Golden Panthers allowed just 11 first downs and held UNT to just 1-of-14 on third down conversion attempts. FIU, which has struggled against the run this season, allowed 147 yards on 48 carries against UNT, but held the Mean Green passing attack to just 79 yards. The Panthers defense has been spectacular in their past two contests, allowing a combined 380 total yards, but despite those impressive numbers the defense is still allowing 387.6 ypg and 35.2 ppg. Keyonvis Bouie currently leads the team with has with 50 tackles and also has two interceptions. Antwan Barnes has also been superb this season, collecting 24 tackles and a team-best 6.5 sacks.
The Trojans were only able to muster three points behind 328 total yards in their 24 point setback to UL-Monroe last week. Troy, which racked up 154 yards on the ground in the contest, was led by Joel Whinghter who collected 135 yards on 18 totes (7.5 ypc). The Trojans commitment to the ground game led to 19 first downs and a five minute advantage in time of possession. Whinghter has been the most productive back for the Trojans this season, collecting 353 yards and just one score on 58 carries (6.1 ypc). Freshman quarterback Julian Foster made his collegiate debut for the Trojans and completed 15-of-24 pass attempts for 174 yards and one interception. Foster got the call over Carl Meadows who has been extremely ineffective this season, completing just 45.0 percent of his passes and has tossed eight interceptions against just four touchdowns. On the season, the Troy passing attack has been abysmal, averaging a meager 158.3 ypg. Altogether, the team is averaging just 281.5 ypg in total offense, ranking 109th in the nation.
The Troy defense struggled this past week against UL-Monroe, allowing the Indians to collect 355 total yards, including 165 yards on the ground. The unit only allowed 18 first downs and held the Indians to just 4-of-12 on third down attempts, but struggled in the red-zone, allowing ULM to convert on 4- of-5 chances. The defense also struggled against the pass, allowing 190 yards through the air and was unable to collect a sack in the contest. On the year the Trojans defense has record only eight turnovers and have allowed 346.8 ypg. Sherrod Martin paced Troy with 11 tackles against ULM, while Bernard Davis finished the contest with nine stops. On the year, Davis leads the Trojans with 50 tackles, while Martin is close behind him with 42.
The Trojans will most likely run early and often against the Panthers who have struggled to stop the run this season. Look for Whinghter to have a impressive outing, while leading Troy to its second conference victory.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Troy 24, Florida International 17
posted by phantom
Oct. 20 2005 3:41pm