Sunday NFL Week 4 - 10/2

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I'm not playing anything for Wednesday, but this is my NFL card for Sunday, week 4. I'll bump it up again Sunday morning.

NFL

5 STAR: Detroit (+7) OVER TAMPA BAY

Line from BetUS on 9/28/05

Risking $550 to win $500

Detroit is coming off of a much needed bye week after being destroyed by Chicago on the road in week two. I like them to keep this one close against the Bucs, and they have done a pretty good job of that in the past when they travel to Tampa Bay where they are 7-4 against the spread in their last 11 trips. Joey Harrington and the Detroit offense will have to play better than they did against Chicago, but with the extra week to get ready I think they will at least keep this one close. Tampa Bay improved to 3-0 after last weeks 17-16 win against struggling Green Bay, but I don't see their offense exploding here against the Lions. Buc's quarterback Brian Griese has been efficient at quarterback with an 84.8 passer rating after Week 3, ranking 14th in the league, he's certainly not piling up big yardage numbers with only 488 yards, seventh-worst in the league amongst starting quarterbacks. His numbers likely won't improve next week, either, as the Lions are one of just two defenses in the league to hold opponents under five yards per pass attempt so far this year. Detroit will be able to key on Cadillac Williams and the run and force Greise to beat them throwing the ball. The last three games in this series have been decided by a field goal and I see another close game here. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a win by 3 or less points are only 24-51 against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take the points!

3 STAR: Houston (+10) OVER CINCINNATI

Line from BetUS on 9/28/05

Risking $330 to win $300

I know the Texans have been horrible, scoring only 7 points in each of their first two games, but I think they will hang around here against the Bengals. The Bengal's defense was awesome last week picking off the Bears rookie quarterback Kyle Orton five times, but this unit is not as good as the Buffalo and Pittsburgh defenses that the Texans faced in their first two games. Houston is coming off of a bye week, and they have fired their offensive coordinator Chris Palmer in hopes of jump starting this offense. The plan is to take more shots down the field and to find more ways to get the ball into the hands of Andre Johnson. The Bengals might be the hottest team in the league right now, but I can't remember them laying this much chalk since Boomer Esiason was the quarterback! The Texans are 9-1 against the spread after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games and 6-0 against the spread after two or more consecutive losses against the spread. I'll take the points here!

3 STAR: KANSAS CITY (-2) OVER Philadelphia

Line from BetJamacia on 9/28/05

Risking $330 to win $300

I had a bad feeling about the Chiefs on Monday night, but I like them to bounce back in this spot. Monday Night Football losers are usually a good play the next week and Kansas City usually bounce back well from an ass kicking on the road as they are 18-6 against the spread after a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. Philly was not very impressive in their 3 point win last week against Oakland as a 8 1/2 point favorite and the Eagles are 0-6 after a non cover where the team won as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Eagle also will most likely be without Pro Bowl kicker David Akers who has a hamstring injury. The loss of Akers can be a key factor, not only due to missed field goals or extra points, but in the battle of field position. Oakland had great field position following Philadelphia kickoffs last week, and with Dante Hall as a kick returner this week that could provide a major advantage for Kansas City. I'll lay the points here!

3 STAR: OAKLAND (-3)(-$120) OVER Dallas

Line from BetJamacia on 9/28/05

Risking $360 to win $300

This line just begs for Dallas money as we have an 0-3 team laying points against a 2-1 team, but I like the Raiders to get their first win of the season here. Oakland is off to an 0-3 start, but they have played three very good teams in New England, Kansas City and Philadelphia. Dallas is 2-1, but has not been very impressive the last two weeks with a blown 14 point lead against Washington on Monday night two weeks ago and then struggling against San Francisco last week. The Dallas defense looked horrible against the 49ers. Tim Rattay was picking their secondary apart as receivers were running open all over the field. That is bad news against the Raiders offense and Randy Moss. Moss still holds a grudge against Dallas for passing on him in the draft, and I look for him to have another huge day here against the struggling Dallas secondary. The Oakland defense did a pretty decent job against Philly last week and I think they will do enough against the Cowboys for the Raiders to come away with the win and cover here. Home teams with a winning percentage of 25% or worse that have failed to cover the spread in two out of their last three games are 90-48 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record. Dallas is also only 7-20 against the spread as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. I'll lay the points here!

2005/2006 NFL RECORD

5 STAR RECORD 2-1 (+4.50 UNITS)

3 STAR RECORD 2-4 (-7.50 UNITS)

2 STAR RECORD 0-0 (+0.00 UNITS)

1 STAR RECORD 2-1 (+0.90 UNITS)

ALL RECORD 6-6 (-2.10 UNITS)

A $100 player would down $210