Saturday NCAA Football - 10/1

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These are my plays for this Saturday, October 1st. I'm getting these up early before the lines move any more. I will add one or two more later in the week.

NCAA Football

5 STAR: Minnesota (-2.5) OVER PENN STATE

Risking $550 to win $500

Line from BetJamacia on 9/26/05

I am not sold at all on Penn State this season. The Nittany Lions are off to a 4-0 start but they have not played any competition and are only 1-3 against the spread in their games. They just barely got by Northwestern last week in a very emotionally draining road game and now must face a Minnesota team that is on a roll. The Gophers are coming off of a huge double overtime home win against Purdue that has this Gophers team playing with extreme confidence. The Gophers have actually won four straight meetings against PSU and are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings with the Nittany Lions. Penn State does return nine starters to a defense that was number one in the Big 10 last season, but the Gophers offense just ran right over a Purdue defense that was tops in the Big 10 against the run last season and was number one in the nation against the run prior to last weeks game with the Gophers. Minnesota has been able to run the ball right down Penn State's throat the last two meetings. In 2003 the Gophers rushed 52 times for 252 yards and in 2004 they rushed 56 times for 288 yards. I don't see Penn State being able to shut down the run in this match up either and PSU is only 1-9 against the spread the last ten times they have allowed 200 or more rushing yards in a game. On the other side of the ball I am not impressed by the Penn State offense and I am not a fan of PSU quarterback Michael Robinson. Robinson has athletic ability, but he makes too many bad decisions for my taste as his career numbers of 10 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions coming into this season suggests. This aggresive Minnesota defense will make him pay for those mistakes. The Gophers are one of the top teams in the nation with 10 take aways, while Penn State is tied for last in division 1-A with 13 give aways already this season. I'll lay the points here!

5 STAR: Boise State (-10)(-$120) OVER HAWAII

Risking $600 to win $500 - Buy the 1/2 point

Line from BetJamacia on 9/28/05

With Boise State off to a slow start against the big boys on their schedule, we get some nice value in this line. Hawaii is in major rebuilding mode after losing everyone from the offense. They got their first win last week by shutting out a horrible Idaho team, but this is not the same Timmy Chang offense that has been capable of putting up huge numbers on the scoreboard. The Hawaii offense is very young right now and even though Boise State's pass defense has not been very good, they played well in their win last week against a Bowling Green attack that is lead by one of the top NFL quarterback prospects. The Broncos have won the last three meetings with Hawaii by an average of over 35 points per game and Boise State holds the record for the longest winning streak in WAC history having lost just twice in 32 chances against the rest of the league. Boise State quarterback Jared Zabransky, expected to be the top offensive player in the WAC this season, got off to a slow start but will have a huge game here. Lay the points, I don't see this one being close!

3 STAR: Virginia Tech (-11) OVER WEST VIRGINIA

Risking $330 to win $300

Line from BetJamacia on 9/26/05

I have been riding the Hokies and I will continue to do so here. Virginia Tech turned in another dominating performance against Georgia Tech last week and I look for them to take care of business against West Virginia this week. There is no doubt that the Hokies will not be looking past West Virginia. In 2003, Virginia Tech, after crushing Syracuse the week before, traveled to West Virginia and lost, 28-7, the start of a third consecutive season when raised expectations quickly proved too much to handle. As they head to Morgantown this weekend it is after many cautionary words from their coach, who doesn't want another season to implode. This Mountaineers team does not have the same talent as years past. Even though they are 4-0 the best team they have played is Maryland and they struggled at home against East Carolina this past week. The Mountaineers managed just 127 rushing yards on 46 carries against an East Carolina team that had yielded 407 yards on the ground in a loss to Wake Forest last week. They will find it tough to run again this week against the Hokies and as West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez was quoted as saying after the East Carolina win, "If we can't run the football, we're going to struggle on offense". This is a very true statement as the Mountaineers are 4-13 against the spread versus rushing defenses that allow 2.75 or less rushing yards per carry since 1992. West Virginia has two young quarterbacks in Adam Bednarik and Pat White. They combined to complete 15 of 20 passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns against East Carolina, but they also committed four turnovers with three interceptions and a fumble. The Hokies defense should be able to cause some turnovers here against this inexperienced offense. The West Virginia defense is ranked #4 in the nation, but they have not faced an offense that features the talent of Vick, Imoh and Humes. I look for another big Hokes win here!

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Good luck,

John

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