Marc Lawrence

5 BEST BET

VIRGINIA TECH over Georgia Tech by 24

5 COLLEGE GAME

OF THE MONTH!!

Documented 42-18 since 1990

Saturday.

Early results indicate that this will determine the ACC

Coastal division titleist. Both teams have played very well

so far this year and appear to be the cream of the ACC

crop. Still, this is an unplayable game from our perspective.

Georgia Tech is a dynamite road dog while Virginia Tech is

nearly unbeatable at home. Marcus Vick and Reggie Ball

(check status) are two of the ACC’s best QB’s. We do know

that home teams off BB shutout wins are 22-3-1 SU and

14-61 ATS. And now you do, too.

4 BEST BET

Penn State over NORTHWESTERN by 10

The Lions are finding their offensive rhythm against lesser

competition and, to be honest, this Northwestern defense

isn’t much better than the teams Penn State has been

playing. The Penn State double revenge, a huge edge in

defensive ability, and a fair number put us on Joe Pa and

the white shirts today. An interesting sidebar: the Lions have

been held to 7 points in each of the last two meetings in

this series. In the previous three they scored 49, 38 and 41.

Against this defenseless sieve, we see the latter happening

here today. PSU improves to 13-1 ATS in SU road revenge wins.

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3* best bet

3 BEST BET

MIAMI FL over Colorado by 3

Simply put, these are not the vintage Canes we’ve come to

know over the years. After having been outgained, 378-

347 by Clemson in last week's triple OT win, Miami has now

been outyarded in eight of its last fourteen games since

last season. It’s no wonder Coker is popping Propecia in

record levels. Colorado has been camped at home since the

season began. They're also off a shutout win and have the

benefit of a week of rest to prepare. Underdogs in this role,

in Games 2-6, are 16-6 ATS. Miami is too undisciplined for

our tastes. Besides, Buffs have score 20 or more points in 18

of their last 23 games. UM is 0-7 ATS at home when they

surrender 20 or more. We're runnin' with the Herd here.

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upset gow

GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET

OREGON ST over Arizona St by 6

Anyone who saw Oregon State get dismembered by

Louisville probably won’t give the Beavers a shot here. They

are a one-dimensional team for sure but they are playing in

a stadium that is feared by all members of the Pac Ten. With

good reason. The Beavers are 8-1 ATS in the first of BB home

games and the host in this series is 16-2 ATS with seven

straight wins. As ugly as this Beaver is, dive in and enjoy the

fun. OSU 13-3 ATS here in conference play with revenge.

USC on deck for Sun Devils cements it.

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Thursday, September 22nd

Commonwealth Gobblers to Wreck Tech...

Eagles Show No Brotherly Love to Raidahs...

Saturday, September 24th

Friday, September 23rd

BOISE ST over Bowling Green by 10

The Smart Box (page 3) tells us that Boise is the side in this game

but you don’t need a box and you don’t need to be smart to

understand how hard it will be for the BeeGees to win this game.

Boise is a smart 25-0 SU on the blue rug and Bowling Green is

just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 SU losses. But the key is this: Ball State,

with mostly freshmen and sophomores, boxed the BG defense

all over the field just ten days ago.

Wednesday, September 21st

UTAH over Air Force by 6

Air Force is a capable road underdog, especially in conference

play (14-8 ATS last 22) but the Falcons are going into a hornet’s

nest here. Utah is still steaming about the illegal pick that cost

them a win at TCU and the Utes will be foaming at the mouth

here. The problem with playing Utah is that the underdog has

won the money eight straight times in this series and home

favorites off an overtime loss are pathetic pointspread plays.

FLA ATLANTIC over LA Monroe by 6

Easily the worst game of the week and easily the most impossible

to handicap. Monroe did beat the Owls in Florida last season, its

sixth road win in sixty tries if you don’t count games against

fellow Louisiana garbage can, Lafayette. Can they do it again?

With FAU starting seven freshmen and sophomores on defense,

anything can happen. NOTE: this game moved to Thursday from

Saturday.

Iowa St over ARMY by 17

An interesting Friday game that demands watching. Iowa State,

fresh off its biggest win of the season, takes on an Army team

that rises up every now and them. The Cyclones aren’t looking

ahead to Nebraska and certainly have the talent to dispatch the

Corps. But as bad as Army is as an underdog (8-15 ATS last 23),

Iowa State is as road chalk (1-5 ATS last six).

California over NEW MEXICO ST by 27

It’s been a long time since California covered as a favorite in a

non-conference game against an avenging opponent (15 years,

to be exact) but the Bears are way better than NMSU. Hal Mumme

hasn’t got his spread offense going yet and this Cal defense sure

isn’t a remedy for an ailing attack. Aggies have a strong (9-2

ATS) record as a home dog and that will keep us at bay for now.

OHIO ST over Iowa by 10

Last year, Iowa handed Jim Tressel his worst loss as coach of the

Buckeyes. That 33-7 pounding was the final blow in a three-game

OSU losing streak and a most bitter pill to swallow for the proud

Buckeyes. Be sure that Ohio State will come to play here. Iowa

showed some huge holes in that game at Iowa State but the

Hawkeyes are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 conference games. Line

may be over-adjusted because of that loss at Ames

Michigan St over ILLINOIS by 6

It may seem imprudent to take the Spartans here considering

that they just played Notre Dame and have Michigan and Ohio

State dead ahead. Couple that with the fact that our 'Anti Irish

Letdown' theory comes into effect as well (teams who upset

Notre Dame are just 3-17-1 ATS as favorites in their next game).

A boatload of old negative Illini stats surface here as well,

though. Then again, that was before the Zooker arrived on the

scene. Take the points.

Boston College over CLEMSON by 3

Clemson has faced one of the most brutal opening schedules ever

conceived by an athletic director. The Tigers opened with Texas

A&M, took a trip to Maryland and played the Miami Hurricanes

last week. Does Clemmie have anything left for this rugged BC

bunch? The Eagles can win on the road (15-6 ATS last 21) but

they are coming off an emotional game with Florida State. We

like their chances with QB Porter (check his injured ankle) in the

lineup. No Porter, no play.

Louisville over S FLORIDA 27

Louisville gave up ten quick points to Oregon State then blitzed

the Ducks woozy with 35 unanswered before the half. Judging

by that performance, it would appear that the Cardinals have

way too much firepower for stodgy South Florida. Louie is 41-10

ATS in its last 51 road wins and has covered nine of the last 12 as

chalk. Talent disparity, especially at the quarterback position,

keeps us in a 'lay it or leave it' mode. Remember, the Cards were

our longshot choice to steal the BCS in '05. No backing off now.

WAKE FOREST over Maryland by 3

Maryland has had its troubles this season but the Terps rarely

have trouble with Wake Forest. The Turtles have won 13 of the

last 16, including six straight wins and covers, and could easily

extend that streak against a Demon Deacon team still searching

for its offensive identity. Unfortunately, Maryland hasn’t found

its offense either, making this a solid pass for us.

Georgia over MISSISSIPPI ST by 10

The teams haven’t met for eight years but, if there are any long

memories in Starkville, there is no love lost on the other Dawgs.

Georgia has won 21 of its last 27 conference games, including a

perfect 11 for 11 against .600 or less foes, a direct opposite of

Missy State’s record. Over the same period of time, the Starkville

Dawgs are 3-22 SU in league play with only one win in 20 tries

against .300 or better opposition. Still, though, can't dismiss a

17 returning starter taking points with revenge. With the Dawgs

looking dead ahead to Tennessee, this becomes a tentative take.

W Michigan over TEMPLE by 3

This is clearly Temple’s final chance to avoid a winless season. It’s

not a great chance but it is a chance. Western Michigan’s defense

is the worst the Owls will see. However, they haven’t showed

that they can score in a dummy scrimmage. Western won’t go

winless with games against Buffalo and Ball State in the near

future, but this one isn’t a gimme.

C MICHIGAN over E Michigan by 1

After a nice win over Louisiana Lafayette, Eastern went across

the street and got beheaded by a very angry pack of Wolverines.

Now, back in their league, the Emus are looking forward to

regaining their self respect. It won’t be easy. Central did what

few teams have done over the last decade, win at Miami Ohio.

Two good QB’s in an entertaining game... too bad no one will

see it.

VIRGINIA over Duke by 21

Virginia is in its best role (13-1 off BB ATS losses) and has the

perfect foil to extend that record. Duke took the week off (played

VMI) after that thrashing by Virginia Tech but, rested or not, the

Dukies just aren’t very good. They did nothing offensively or

defensively against Tech and Virginia isn’t that far behind the

Hokies talent wise. Still, we abhor homecoming favorites. We’ll

be cavalier about this and ignore it, gracefully.

BYU over Tcu by 10

Let’s see, the Horned Frogs went to Oklahoma and handed the

Sooners their first September loss ever under Bob Stoops. The

next week, at SMU, the Toads gave up the Mustangs' first nonconference

win in 18 tries. Just five days later, TCU stopped Utah’s

18-game win streak in overtime. We’ll need a little more time

to determine what kind of streak BYU is in, but did you notice a

pattern with the Amphibians? We did, and we’re doing it.

W VIRGINIA over E Carolina by 21

Two impressive wins at Syracuse and at Maryland sandwiched

around a roast of Wofford bring the Mountaineers into this

match at an unexpected 3-0. We certainly don’t expect the

Mounties to go undefeated this year but they should be 4-0 after

this Saturday. East Carolina hasn’t beaten a winning team on

the road since November of 2001 and they likely won’t win this.

Linemaker is quickly catching up to West Virginia. No value here

ALABAMA over Arkansas by 13

Alabama’s defense should eat up a team that cannot run the

football and Arkansas certainly fits that description. The problem

is that the Tide has already failed in both opportunities as a home

favorite this season and is just 2-8 ATS in that role in its last ten

tries. However, before you get too excited about this underHog,

remember that Vanderbilt had lost 16 conference road games in

a row before going to Fayetteville and upsetting Arkansas. This

just in: the last 11 teams who allowed 70 or more points in their

previous game are 9-2 ATS when taking on a foe off a win. With

Bama off last week's South Carolina revenge win, and having

Florida up next, the points become the play here today,

Florida over KENTUCKY by 21

Kentucky is gutty, if nothing else, and the talent is starting to

catch up to the courage. No, the Cats aren’t at Florida’s level yet,

but if the Gators think they are going into Commonwealth

Stadium for a walk-through win, we suggest they call the

Louisville Cardinals before they put on the pads. You couldn’t

blame Florida for being a bit overconfident. The Gators have

beaten the Cats 18 times in a row. They'll win here, too, but

getting the number may be another matter.

NC STATE over N Carolina by 14

NC State is an enigma for statisticians. The Wolfpack has beaten

every one of its last 13 foes in yardage but is just 6-7 on the

scoreboard. The Wolves have had trouble covering, too. They’ve

made the money just four times in their last 17 ACC games.

Revenge will make the difference today. NC State laid 10.5 at

Carolina last season and lost the whole game. Watch the Wolfpack

defense throttle the Tar Heels and roll to a comfortable win.

Notre Dame over WASHINGTON by 10

Last year, in the midst of one of Notre Dame’s worst seasons,

Washington came trotting into South Bend full of confidence.

Sixty minutes later, the Huskies were heading back to Seattle

with a 38-3 butt whipping that put the program in the tank for

the rest of the season. In fact, UW hasn’t beaten a major college

opponent since then. There’s no doubt that Tyrone Willingham

would love to stick it to the school that fired him

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3 BEST BET

MIAMI FL over Colorado by 3

Simply put, these are not the vintage Canes we’ve come to

know over the years. After having been outgained, 378-

347 by Clemson in last week's triple OT win, Miami has now

been outyarded in eight of its last fourteen games since

last season. It’s no wonder Coker is popping Propecia in

record levels. Colorado has been camped at home since the

season began. They're also off a shutout win and have the

benefit of a week of rest to prepare. Underdogs in this role,

in Games 2-6, are 16-6 ATS. Miami is too undisciplined for

our tastes. Besides, Buffs have score 20 or more points in 18

of their last 23 games. UM is 0-7 ATS at home when they

surrender 20 or more. We're runnin' with the Herd here.

Marshall over C FLORIDA by 1

Marshall has enjoyed a ton of success in the last decade but there

is one area in which it has failed miserably. When they go on the

road into revenge, the Herd is a pitiful 6-19 ATS despite winning

18 of those 25 games on the field. Still, Central Florida isn’t exactly

a winner, owning a 17-game losing streak going into last week’s

game against South Florida. The numbers are all wrong for a

serious play here. Let’s move on.

Southern Cal over OREGON by 10

This week’s Awesome Angle says it all and don’t think for a

minute that Oregon doesn’t have the talent to make it work.

The Ducks have impressive numbers (9-2 ATS last 11) when getting

points and are extremely tough to beat on the Duck Pond ( 53-6

SU last 59 home games, with only three losses by 20 or more

points). Sure, Southern Cal has been the nation’s dominant

football team over the last two plus years but even the best have

their off days. We’re counting on one of those coming here.

MISSISSIPPI over Wyoming by 3

Wyoming, off a gut wrenching last minute win over bitter rival

Air Force, travels to the deep south to face an Ole Miss team

who is still stinging from the rude reception it received in Laramie

last season. The Rebels went to the Laramie plateau and were

ambushed by the altitude and the Cowboys. The feeling here is

the Cowboys are a better team this season while the Rebels

aren't. With that, we'll leave Ole Miss alone here today.

N Illinois over AKRON by 10

Everyone in the MAC world thought that the Zips would be

impotent without the best QB in school history and all the

accompanying skill people. It’s not turning out that way. Akron

is very competitive with Luke Getsy at the controls and will be

no easy pickings in league play. Northern Illinois has the talent

to win the MAC West and the Huskies are good enough to win

this. It just won’t be easy.

HOUSTON over S Mississippi by 6

What a gutty effort the Houston team gave in El Paso last Friday.

Standing toe-to-toe with the team favored to win the conference,

the Cougars gave UTEP everything it wanted and played right

until the final second of overtime. Southern Miss better bring its

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