INTERESTING WRITE UP I FOUND:

An angle worth exploring....

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One thing that I have found over the years is that in College Football, the linesmakers tend to be slow to adjust to a team that turns out to be a lot better than expected (or worse) - particulary in the smaller markets where the "market" isn't as efficient.

So for that reason, I keep a running spreadsheet each year of every team and their record against the spread. Usually at least 3-4 teams make it 8-9 games into the season (if not all the way through) covering every single game.

The other thing I track is "by how much" these teams cover (or fail to cover) the spread. If it's within a TD it counts, but I give extra credence to teams that blow the number out of the water. For instance, UCLA beat the spread in week 1 by 15 1/2 pts. Then in week 2, they covered by 17. In week 3, they still covered by 10 1/2. Oddsmakers are too slow to react in college football. UCLA is better than advertised.

So here are the stats right now-

27 teams have yet to lose ATS

26 teams have yet to win ATS

Here's the games to look at this week where these teams play against EACH OTHER:

Minnesota -3- over Purdue ---- Minnesota has covered all 3 games, two of which they beat the number by 16 & 19 respectively. Purdue has failed to cover their only decision - by 11 pts (they tied against Arizona) I LOVE this play.

LSU -6- over Tennessee ----

LSU covered their only game - against Arizona State, although it was a bit of a lucky victory, so I put less credence in this one. Tennessee has failed to cover both games - one (UAB) by 17 pts.

Iowa State -17 over Army (Friday) ---

Iowa State has covered their only decision against Iowa by 29 pts. (Again, a rivalry game so we might put less faith in this) Army has failed to cover every game this season.

Others to seriously consider:

Illinois +10- over Michigan State - Illinois has covered all 3 games this year, and they are a home dog going against a Spartan team coming off a very emotional, tight victory on the road. 2nd straight road game - getting points - taking an underrated team. I LOVE this play.

Wyoming +2- over Mississippi - I have actually won money on Wyoming every game this year. They legitimately have a good team and nobody realizes it yet. They've covered all 3 games - one of which they covered by 17.5 pts. Mississippi is atrocious. And you get 2 1/2 pts!

Wisconsin +3 over Michigan - Wisconsin has covered all 3 games - two of which they crushed the number (by 10 and 32) Plus - they are at home, and just MIGHT be a better team than Michigan this year.

Ohio -4 over Kent State - Kent State has failed to cover both games - and neither was close. (17 & 10.5) Ohio is a decent team, despite what Va Tech's NFL defense did to them.

Anyway - heres all the other teams that have covered each week......

Akron, Baylor, Cincy, Clemson, ECarolina, FSU, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa St, LSU, Marshall, Minnesota, Navy, N.Illinois, Oregon, S Florida, So Miss, Texas, Texas Tech, UAB, UCLA, USC, Vandy, VT, WVa, Wisconsin & Wyoming.

UAB, UCLA, USC, Vandy, Wisconsin & Va Tech in particular have been CRUSHING the numbers