FROM ANOTHER SITE: (interesting read)

Subject: Joe Public doing fine in NFL so far Posted 09/20/2005 at 08:45 AM

It?s a race against time and so far, oddsmakers are behind when it comes to pro football betting.

Linesmakers are vulnerable at this early stage, getting a feel on what teams can do and what the correct numbers should be. Meanwhile, bettors took advantage in a big way this past Sunday.

Professionals and recreational gamblers alike took home the money on the Steelers easily covering against the Texans. Gamblers also beat up bookmakers on the Bengals rolling the Vikings, Buccaneers defeating the Bills, Browns upsetting the Packers, and Chiefs beating the Raiders. More Stories

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There was line movement in each of these games with the Steelers going from 4 ½ to 6, Bengals crossing the magic three by going from 2 ½ to 3 ½, Bucs from 1 ½ to 3, Packers down from 7 ½ to 6, and Chiefs opening as an underdog and closing as the favorite.

Bookmakers, especially those in Vegas, killed a lot of parlays when the Panthers upset the Patriots. The house also did well when the Titans upset the Ravens, and when the Jaguars-Colts game went under the total, but overall it was a huge Sunday for the player.

Can the good times keep rolling for bettors?

?We?re still making adjustments; hopefully there will be less line movement next week,? said Mike Seba, senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that supplies betting numbers to many of Nevada?s hotels.

?It has been tougher this season,? Seba said. ?Coming into this season so many teams seemed even. Now it?s beginning to sort out. We didn?t want to over adjust after the first week. Now, after two weeks, we can get some validation on some of these teams.

?But we still need a couple of more weeks. We need to know how teams perform on the road. That?s what really separates the good from the bad.?

Red flags certainly went up on the Packers after they were held to just three points by the Lions in Week 1. But linesmakers didn?t want to overreact to just one game, so some opened Green Bay as high as -7 ½ at home against the Browns.

When the Bears were destroying the Lions in an early Sunday game before the Browns-Packers kickoff, bookmakers knew they were in trouble with Green Bay. Bettors had steamed the Browns. A few places had gone down as low as Green Bay -5 ½. Nobody was interested in laying a big number with the Packers and their rotten defense.

That could be the last time the Packers get any respect from bookmakers. The Packers are 3-point home underdogs to Tampa Bay this week. Before the season, Green Bay might have been -6 for that matchup. The Packers have beaten the Bucs 13 straight times at Lambeau Field, although they last hosted Tampa Bay in 2001.

?If Green Bay had played decent against the Browns, beaten them by two touchdowns, the line would have been Packers -3,? Seba said. ?It?s almost like a 6-point swing.?

Oddsmakers don?t like to make the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Patriots an underdog, but they had to this week. The Patriots, who have not looked good this season, are 3-point underdogs to the Steelers. Pittsburgh has looked outstanding, is at home and has revenge for the Patriots beating them in the playoffs last year.

?The Patriots have looked vulnerable,? Seba said. ?I doubt that number moves off three.?

On Monday some places came out with the Vikings -4 at home against the Saints. The Vikings have looked dreadful without Randy Moss, have an unsettled offensive line, and are breaking in six new defensive starters. And, as far as coaching, FEMA has shown more leadership than Mike Tice.

Still, Seba?s send-out number on this matchup prior to the Saints-Giants Monday night matchup was Vikings -5. Why so high? A lot has to do with the situation, Seba said, with the Saints playing their third consecutive road game and having to do it on a short travel week after playing Monday on the East Coast.

Seba was surprised to see the Broncos bet up to -3 against the Chiefs in next Monday night?s game. Even though the Broncos are at home, where they have won 17 of their last 24, Seba made the game pick.

?It?s a little high,? he said of Denver being favored by a field goal. ?The way the Chiefs have looked, I can?t believe they?re getting three.?