In last year’s StatFox Edge, we projected that Indianapolis would capture its first Super Bowl Title. Ironically, the Colts’ chances may have been doomed as early as opening night of the entire 2004 season, when a missed Mike Vanderjagt field goal cost the team a chance at overtime, and eventually home field advantage, against the Patriots. In that respect, it’s amazing to think how important each play can be in a season. Indy may face the same situation in 2005, as it will again have to travel to New England, this time in week eight. If they can somehow get by their nemesis that night, the sky is again the limit here. NFL-MVP QB Peyton Manning seems intent on making 2005 special, even more so than a year ago when he led his team to top rankings in points and passing yards, and broke Dan Marino’s long standing record for TD passes in a season.

In all fairness to the Colts’ defensive unit in 2004, the offense unit scored so quickly and so often that even the Ravens’ defense probably would have struggled statistically. For 2005, Head Coach Tony Dungy’s defense loses dispensable players DB Idrees Bashir and LB Jim Nelson to free agency but gains several players from the draft. In fact, the organization used all of its first four picks on defenders, including athletic CB’s Marlin Jackson of Michigan and Kelvin Heyden of Illinois. League leading sacker DE Dwight Freeney of course returns. On offense, any tinkering to the Manning-led attack would have been pointless. G Rick DeMulling and TE Marcus Pollard have departed but the rest remains intact for a unit that at most times was an absolute machine.

We can’t stress enough how important it is for this team to secure home field advantage in the playoffs if it hopes to take the next step in 2005. As crazy as it sounds, the Colts’ schedule is actually weakest in the entire AFC so achieving that goal is very realistic. With Manning coming off the best quarterback season ever, and the rest of the team’s hunger at its peak, we give Indianapolis a good shot at unseating New England atop the NFL perch.

2005 Key Information

StatFox Power Rating: 30(2 of 32)

2005 Schedule Rating: (25 toughest of 32)

2004:(SU 13-5)(ATS 10-7-1)

L3 years:(SU 37-17)(ATS 27-25-2)

Coach Tony Dungy: (SU 37-17) (ATS 27-25-2)

Trends by month

September

Indianapolis is 0-6 vs. the number at Ravens (9/11)

Coach Dungy is 9-2 ATS of loss with revenge (? 9/18)

Colts are 24-42 ATS home when playing team with losing record (? 9/25)

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October

Tennesee is 1-4 ATS at home against Indy (10/2)

Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS off division road contest (10/9)

Colts are 2-10 ATS as HF off non-division game (10/17)

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November

New England is 8-0-1 ATS against Indy (11/7)

Indy is 10-4 vs. Bengals (11/20)

Colts 4-0 against the spread playing Pittsburgh (11/28)

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December

Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS as road favorite with revenge (12/11)

Colts are 1-11 ATS home vs. Chargers (12/18)

Remarkably, Colts are 0-35-1 ATS when they lose

Top Teaser Angle:

Indianapolis is 34-5 OVER 6 pt. teaser in RG when OVER is 36.5 to 43 points.

Top Money Line Angle:

Indianapolis 3-11 (-7.65 units) after allowing 30+ points 2 straight games.

Top Totals Angle:

Indianapolis is 11-1 OVER vs. teams with 32 or more minutes TOP.

Pre-Season O/U wins:

UNDER 11.5 -145 @www.BetCris.com

Fantasy Player Must: Payton Manning (surprise)

Fantasy Player Bust: Reggie Wayne