The new rules for expansion in the NFL have made it difficult for teams like Houston to match the immediate success that Carolina and Jacksonville attained in the mid-90’s but you still have to take your cap off to HC Dom Capers and his staff for the steady improvement shown by Houston in each of their previous three seasons. The Texans have improved their win total in each year, culminated by a respectable 7-9 SU & 8-7-1 ATS finish in 2004. Statistically they improved in nearly every area, and the 6.0 PPG margin improvement truly demonstrated how much more competitive this team has become. On defense in ’04, the Texans bettered themselves by eight spots in the ranking, and on offense, the upgrade was even more impressive, 12 spots. With a strong nucleus of QB David Carr, WR Andre Johnson, and RB Domanick Davis spearheading the attack, that trend figures to continue upward in ’05.

Overall the roster here is still a bit shy to contend for anything real special, but as mentioned earlier, salary cap restrictions and free agency rules have forced expansion teams to be more patient. The Houston organization has done an exemplary job in that regard. The personnel moves since January continue on that pattern as only a few small, calculated moves were made. The signing of talented linebackers Morlon Greenwood of Miami and Frank Chamberlain of Cincinnati should offset the loss of franchise leading tackler Jamie Sharper. He was viewed as expendable with the front line realizing steady improvement. That trend should continue as well with the first round drafting of mammoth DT Travis Johnson of Florida State.

This is a critical year in the growth pattern of Carr, as despite decent numbers, he continues to struggle being pressured in the pocket. Frankly, his protection has been horrible since he came on the scene three years ago. The Texans did nothing in the offseason to address that inadequacy. Combining that with the lack of any other major moves, as well as the most difficult schedule in the division, makes it difficult to project that Houston takes another step forward in 2005.

2005 Key Information

StatFox Power Rating: 18(20 of 32)

2005 Schedule Rating: (12 toughest of 32)

2004:(SU 7-9)(ATS 8-7-1)

L3 years:(SU 16-32)(ATS 24-22-2)

Coach Dom Capers:(SU 16-32) (ATS 24-22-2)

Trends by month

September

Houston is 1-2 SU and ATS in road openers (9/11)

1-5 ATS vs. the NFC North (9/18)

Texans are 0-4 ATS if over .500 in first month of season (? 9/18)

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October

Tennessee is 0-3 ATS in last 3 against Houston (10/9)

Capers team is 4-12 ATS after a win (? 10/16)

Texans 7-1 ATS at home vs. >.600 team (? 10/23)

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November

Houston is 7-0 ATS vs. teams rushing for >4.5 YPC (? 11/13)

Capers crew is 7-1-1 ATS off a November loss (? 11/20)

Texans are 6-1-1 against the number at home in November (11/27)

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December

Houston is 10-2 UNDER in road games 2nd half of season (? 12/4)

Texans are 13-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses (? 12/18)

QB Carr is 5-1 ATS and 3-0 against the number at home vs. Jaguars (12/24)

Top Teaser Angle:

Houston is 12-2 vs. 6 pt. teaser in home games 2nd half of season.

Top Money Line Angle:

Houston is 0-5 (-8.9 units) vs. AFC North opponents

Top Totals Angle:

Houston is 8-0 UNDER in road games in final month of season.

Pre-Season O/U wins:

OVER 7 -135 @www.BetCris.com

Fantasy Player Must: Andre Johnson

Fantasy Player Bust: Kris Brown