Buffalo Bills
FOund this at another site they are doing one team a day I'll try to keep on top of it...
The Bills made a remarkable turnaround last season, rallying from a 0-4 start to a 9-7 finish and only a home loss to Pittsburgh in the season finale kept them from reaching the postseason. Buffalo was absolutely dominant in the season’s second half as in the months of November and December, it complied a six game winning streak in which every game was decided by double digits. The catalyst behind the resurgence was RB Willis McGahee, who stepped in for an injured Travis Henry and ran for 1,128 yards and 13 TD’s. The spark he provided helped lift the Bills from 30th in the NFL in points in ’03 to 7th last season. His contribution helped balance the scales between the offense and defense, as the latter unit had another huge year, ranking 2nd in the NFL overall for the second straight season. From at ATS-standpoint, Buffalo’s 10-5-1 mark was its best in over a decade.
With everything Buffalo had going for it at the end of 2004, the decision to turn to 2nd year pro J.P. Losman at quarterback in replacing Drew Bledsoe was somewhat surprising. Losman struggled in his limited playing time last season, but apparently the organization felt it was winning in spite of Bledsoe, not because of him. Looking at the passing numbers last year, 28th ranked in the NFL, it’s hard to argue that logic. As an insurance policy, the Bills also brought in Kelly Holcomb of Cleveland. Two free agent offensive linemen are expected to ease the transition as well. On defense, little change was needed, little was made, though the loss of DT Pat Williams could hurt a bit. However, the linebackers and defensive backs have been the strength of that unit anyway.
Buffalo feels it has set itself up for the long haul with McGahee and Losman serving as the anchors for its offensive unit. There is certainly a ton pf pressure on the latter to carry on the momentum built at the end of 2004. Offensive minded Head Coach Mike Mularkey must possess a great deal of trust in his new passer. Frankly, the success of this team in 2005 hinges on Losman. If he’s on, this is bona fide playoff contender.
BUFFALO BILLS
Power Rating: 28(3 of 32)
2005 Schedule Rating: (5th toughest of 32)
2004 Record: (SU 9-7)(ATS 10-5-1)
Last 3 Years: (SU 23-25)(ATS 24-19-5)
Coach: Mike Mularkey(SU 9-7)(ATS 10-5-1)
TRENDS BY MONTH
September
2-9 ATS in season opener
13-1 ATS in 2nd game of season
14-4-1 ATS vs. team with then .500 record October
3-0 ATS vs. NY Jets
2-5 ATS vs. Oakland
0-4 ATS at New England November
18-7 ATS in November home games
1-14 ATS after Miami
5-0 ATS @ home vs. Kansas City December
12-4 ATS in final month L16 contests
2-15-1 ATS in 2nd New England game
10-0 ATS after New England
Top Teaser Angle - 6-0 teaser line in home games vs. team with 64% or better comp. ptc. in 2nd half of season.
Top Money Line Angle - Buffalo 2-9 (-8.75 units) against ML when playing team with 75% > win percentage.
Top Totals Angle - Bills 15-4 UNDER as road underdog
Pre-Season O/U wins - (OVER 8 -120) at BetCris.com
Fantasy Player Must: Willis McGahee
Fantasy Player Bust: Eric Moulds