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Derby Recap ---

Again many thanks to Slam for his Derby Analysis.

To Re-cap the "Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda" Bets ---

Slam had the following Recomendartions -

Horse --------(Slam's Odds) ----- (Track Odds)--------Value Percentage(Track Odds versus Slam's Odds)

Bellamy Road ------(2-1) -----------(2.6-1)----------------30%

High Fly --------------(4-1) ---------- (7-1) -------------------------75%

Don't Get Mad -------(8-1) ----------(29-1) ------------------------------------262%****

Noble Causeway -----(8-1) ---------(12-1) --------------------50%

Bandini --------------(11-1) ---------(7-1) ---------(-36%)

Giacomo ------------(25-1) ----------(50-1) ----------------------------100%****

Afleet Alex ----------(25-1) ----------(4.5-1) ---(-80%)

Greater Good -------(33-1) ----------(58-1) -----------------------75%

Closing Argument ----(33-1) ---------(72-1) ------------------------------125%****

If you took the top 3 Value Percentage Horses, (when comparing Track Odds to Slam's Odds) you would have - Don't Get Mad/ Closing Argument, and Giacomo, who finished 1st, 2nd and 4th.

Say you placed a $20 EX Box on those 3 horses ($120), you would have hit a $98,000 payday.

Also, say you played $200 ATB on all 3 horses ($1800), you would have collected $16,820 on Giacomo and $9,480 on Closing Argument for a total of $26,300 payday.

Slam had a great analysis and it was right there for all of us to utilize and take advantage of -

I had a Giacomo/Don't Get Mad Exacta, but did not have the winning Exacta.

Again, Thanks to Slam for a Great Derby Analysis that should have produce several wealthy people from the Got Picks Board - If, only if ......

LOL!!!

- Dirt (Jim)

drtnapper07

posted by drtnapper07

May 9 2005 12:41pm

1 replies

  1. 0 likes

    Churchill Downs - May 7th, 2005 - Race 10

    Race name: Kentucky Derby Grade: 1

    Stakes - For Thoroughbred Three Year Old One And One Fourth Miles On The Dirt

    Purse: $2,000,000

    Available Money: $2,399,600

    Value of Race: $2,399,600 1st $1,639,600, 2nd $400,000, 3rd $200,000, 4th $100,000, 5th $60,000

    Weather: Cloudy Track: Fast

    Off at: 6:11 Start: Good for all

    Fractional Times: 22.28, 45.38, 1:09.59, 1:35.88, 2:02.75

    Winner: Giacomo - Gray or Roan Colt, February 16, 2002

    Bred by Mr. & Mrs. J. S. Moss in KY

    Pedigree: Holy Bull - Set Them Free , by Stop the Music

    Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $42,296,149

    10 Giacomo 102.60 45.80 19.80

    18 Closing Argument 70.00 24.80

    12 Afleet Alex 4.60

    Wager Type Winning Numbers ---- Payoff --------- Total Pool

    $2 Exacta 10-18 ---- $9,814.80 --------$19,132,958

    $2 Trifecta 10-18-12 ---- $133,134.80 --------$22,189,155

    $1 Superfecta 10-18-12-17 ---- $864,253.50 -------$7,422,552

    Pgm Comment

    10 Giacomo: unhurried,between early,6w far turn,8w lane,fully extended

    18 Closing Argument: slight bobble start,9w early,inch up far turn 4w,led 3/16s,gamely

    12 Afleet Alex: well placed,between early, inside far turn,split lane,outfinished

    17 Don't Get Mad: settled 8w early,edge in 1st turn,circled 10w lane,no final gain

    20 Buzzards Bay: edged in,6w early, sweeping 7w bid 1/4p,drew even,empty late

    14 Wilko: eased back,4w far turn, between lane, 6-7w,mild gain

    16 Bellamy Road: well placed,tracked,4-5w, bid, led upper stretch,weakened

    2 Andromeda's Hero: outrun near inside to stretch,angled 7w,minor gain

    7 Flower Alley: sluggish start,lean in bmp early, steady 5/16s empty in drive

    11 High Fly: nicely placed,near inside between,bid,brief,slim lead, tired

    9 Greeley's Galaxy: sluggish start, angled in,5-6w bid far turn,bid,no late gain

    5 Coin Silver: eased back, bid 4-5w far turn,angled 8w lane,empty late

    8 Greater Good: void of early speed, swung out 9-10w lane,no threat

    4 Noble Causeway: check sharply by wire 1st time,never menaced

    3 Sun King: raced in contention,rail for 7/8s, gradually weakened

    13 Spanish Chestnut: gained lead,angled in 3-4w,pace for nearly 1 mile,tired

    1 Sort It Out: never reached contention

    19 Going Wild: tracked pace 4w, asked 1/2p, tired

    15 Bandini: between horses, tired entering far turn

    6 High Limit: bump early, forced in, tired after 3/4s, near inside

    Footnotes

    GIACOMO, in a bit tight between horses at the start, was unhurried while five wide between rivals during the early stages, continued five wide along the backstretch, worked his way forward between horses six wide on the far turn, was in behind a wall of horses entering the upper stretch, was alertly angled eight abreast to secure racing room at the furlong grounds, then closed determinedly under extreme left-handed urging to prevail in the final seventy yards. CLOSING ARGUMENT bobbled slightly while drifting out for a stride at the break, gained a forward position while nine wide during the opening quarter, angled inward to be four wide on the first turn and along the backstretch, inched up between foes four wide entering the far turn, angled five wide while going between horses at the top of the stretch, gained a narrow advantage leaving the three-sixteenths pole, was joined by the winner from the outside about the sixteenth pole and held on tenaciously to save the place. AFLEET ALEX, nicely placed under light rating from early on while between foes four or five wide, rallied near the inside around the far turn, came out and split rivals while four wide when straightened into the stretch, gained on even terms for the lead in deep stretch and wasn't quite good enough. DON'T GET MAD settled eight wide early, edged in on the first turn, raced four wide on the backstretch, was asked for his best nearing the three-eighths pole while circling foes eight wide, came to the extreme outside to be ten wide entering the stretch, offered a serious bid entering the final furlong but couldn't sustain the needed momentum. BUZZARDS BAY gained a striking position early while maneuvering in six wide, edged closer nearing the end of the backstretch, commenced a sweeping bid seven wide to reach contention approaching the final quarter, loomed menacingly in upper stretch but came up empty. WILKO, eased back five wide early, began to advance four wide on the far turn, came out between horses six wide for the drive, checked in tight quarters leaving the three-sixteenths pole and improved position while unable to threaten. BELLAMY ROAD, away in good order to track the leaders under light rating five wide, was asked for more nearing the five-sixteenths pole, gained a slight advantage between calls when straightened into the stretch, remained a factor into upper stretch then weakened. ANDROMEDA'S HERO, unhurried to the far turn and racing near the inside, came out six or seven wide entering the stretch and produced a mild gain. FLOWER ALLEY, a bit sluggish to begin, leaned in early bumping with HIGH LIMIT and forced that one in on NOBLE CAUSEWAY, moved inside, continued forwardly placed along the backstretch, was steadied behind SPANISH CHESTNUT approaching the five-sixteenths pole, dropped back nearing the quarter pole and weakened soon after. HIGH FLY, nicely placed while working his way near the inside between foes, continued between horses while going after SPANISH CHESTNUT approaching the stretch, put a head in front near the final quarter, battled heads apart into upper stretch, but couldn't sustain the needed momentum. GREELEY'S GALAXY was pinched back in tight after a tardy start, quickly was angled in to race four abreast, came a bit wider on the far turn to commence a sweeping bid, reached contention when straightened for the drive and lacked a further account. COIN SILVER, eased back early after being forced to steady behind NOBLE CAUSEWAY, made a run four or five wide around the far turn, worked his way out eight wide for the drive but was unable to continue his bid. GREATER GOOD, void of early speed and outrun to the stretch, came out ten wide for the drive and failed to menace while improving his position. NOBLE CAUSEWAY bumped with COIN SILVER at the start, was forced to check sharply when bumped by HIGH LIMIT nearing the wire the first time and failed to reach serious contention thereafter. SUN KING, in contention near the inside for seven furlongs, made a brief move in close quarters approaching the far turn then gradually weakened. SPANISH CHESTNUT moved to the front early, maneuvered in to show the way three or four wide, opened a clear advantage on the first turn, set a rapid pace for six furlongs, held on for almost a mile and tired. SORT IT OUT never reached contention. GOING WILD angled in early to press front-running SPANISH CHESTNUT four wide, was asked for more leaving the backstretch, failed to keep pace and faded. BANDINI, in contention while racing in mid-pack between rivals, was finished entering the far turn. HIGH LIMIT, bumped passing the wire the first time and forced in on NOBLE CAUSEWAY, was finished after six furlongs while near the inside.

    drtnapper07

    posted by drtnapper07

    May 9 2005 12:50pm

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